4 resultados para Bayesian probing

em CaltechTHESIS


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Our understanding of the structure and evolution of the deep Earth is strongly linked to knowledge of the thermodynamic properties of rocky materials at extreme temperatures and pressures. In this thesis, I present work that helps constrain the equation of state properties of iron-bearing Mg-silicate perovskite as well as oxide-silicate melts. I use a mixture of experimental, statistical, and theoretical techniques to obtain knowledge about these phases. These include laser-heated diamond anvil cell experiments, Bayesian statistical analysis of powder diffraction data, and the development of a new simplified model for understanding oxide and silicate melts at mantle conditions. By shedding light on the thermodynamic properties of such ubiquitous Earth-forming materials, I hope to aid our community’s progress toward understanding the large-scale processes operating in the Earth’s mantle, both in the modern day and early in Earth’s history.

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A Bayesian probabilistic methodology for on-line structural health monitoring which addresses the issue of parameter uncertainty inherent in problem is presented. The method uses modal parameters for a limited number of modes identified from measurements taken at a restricted number of degrees of freedom of a structure as the measured structural data. The application presented uses a linear structural model whose stiffness matrix is parameterized to develop a class of possible models. Within the Bayesian framework, a joint probability density function (PDF) for the model stiffness parameters given the measured modal data is determined. Using this PDF, the marginal PDF of the stiffness parameter for each substructure given the data can be calculated.

Monitoring the health of a structure using these marginal PDFs involves two steps. First, the marginal PDF for each model parameter given modal data from the undamaged structure is found. The structure is then periodically monitored and updated marginal PDFs are determined. A measure of the difference between the calibrated and current marginal PDFs is used as a means to characterize the health of the structure. A procedure for interpreting the measure for use by an expert system in on-line monitoring is also introduced.

The probabilistic framework is developed in order to address the model parameter uncertainty issue inherent in the health monitoring problem. To illustrate this issue, consider a very simplified deterministic structural health monitoring method. In such an approach, the model parameters which minimize an error measure between the measured and model modal values would be used as the "best" model of the structure. Changes between the model parameters identified using modal data from the undamaged structure and subsequent modal data would be used to find the existence, location and degree of damage. Due to measurement noise, limited modal information, and model error, the "best" model parameters might vary from one modal dataset to the next without any damage present in the structure. Thus, difficulties would arise in separating normal variations in the identified model parameters based on limitations of the identification method and variations due to true change in the structure. The Bayesian framework described in this work provides a means to handle this parametric uncertainty.

The probabilistic health monitoring method is applied to simulated data and laboratory data. The results of these tests are presented.

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In the field of mechanics, it is a long standing goal to measure quantum behavior in ever larger and more massive objects. It may now seem like an obvious conclusion, but until recently it was not clear whether a macroscopic mechanical resonator -- built up from nearly 1013 atoms -- could be fully described as an ideal quantum harmonic oscillator. With recent advances in the fields of opto- and electro-mechanics, such systems offer a unique advantage in probing the quantum noise properties of macroscopic electrical and mechanical devices, properties that ultimately stem from Heisenberg's uncertainty relations. Given the rapid progress in device capabilities, landmark results of quantum optics are now being extended into the regime of macroscopic mechanics.

The purpose of this dissertation is to describe three experiments -- motional sideband asymmetry, back-action evasion (BAE) detection, and mechanical squeezing -- that are directly related to the topic of measuring quantum noise with mechanical detection. These measurements all share three pertinent features: they explore quantum noise properties in a macroscopic electromechanical device driven by a minimum of two microwave drive tones, hence the title of this work: "Quantum electromechanics with two tone drive".

In the following, we will first introduce a quantum input-output framework that we use to model the electromechanical interaction and capture subtleties related to interpreting different microwave noise detection techniques. Next, we will discuss the fabrication and measurement details that we use to cool and probe these devices with coherent and incoherent microwave drive signals. Having developed our tools for signal modeling and detection, we explore the three-wave mixing interaction between the microwave and mechanical modes, whereby mechanical motion generates motional sidebands corresponding to up-down frequency conversions of microwave photons. Because of quantum vacuum noise, the rates of these processes are expected to be unequal. We will discuss the measurement and interpretation of this asymmetric motional noise in a electromechanical device cooled near the ground state of motion.

Next, we consider an overlapped two tone pump configuration that produces a time-modulated electromechanical interaction. By careful control of this drive field, we report a quantum non-demolition (QND) measurement of a single motional quadrature. Incorporating a second pair of drive tones, we directly measure the measurement back-action associated with both classical and quantum noise of the microwave cavity. Lastly, we slightly modify our drive scheme to generate quantum squeezing in a macroscopic mechanical resonator. Here, we will focus on data analysis techniques that we use to estimate the quadrature occupations. We incorporate Bayesian spectrum fitting and parameter estimation that serve as powerful tools for incorporating many known sources of measurement and fit error that are unavoidable in such work.

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Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.