Hot vs. cold: Sequential responses and preference stability in experimental games

In experiments with two-person sequential games we analyzewhether responses to favorable and unfavorable actions dependon the elicitation procedure. In our hot treatment thesecond player responds to the first player s observed actionwhile in our cold treatment we follow the strategy method and have the second player decide on a contingent action foreach and every possible first player move, without firstobserving this move. Our analysis centers on the degree towhich subjects deviate from the maximization of their pecuniaryrewards, as a response to others actions. Our results show nodifference in behavior between the two treatments. We also findevidence of the stability of subjects preferences with respectto their behavior over time and to the consistency of theirchoices as first and second mover.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

Asymptotic robustness in multi-sample analysis of multivariate linear relations

Standard methods for the analysis of linear latent variable models oftenrely on the assumption that the vector of observed variables is normallydistributed. This normality assumption (NA) plays a crucial role inassessingoptimality of estimates, in computing standard errors, and in designinganasymptotic chi-square goodness-of-fit test. The asymptotic validity of NAinferences when the data deviates from normality has been calledasymptoticrobustness. In the present paper we extend previous work on asymptoticrobustnessto a general context of multi-sample analysis of linear latent variablemodels,with a latent component of the model allowed to be fixed across(hypothetical)sample replications, and with the asymptotic covariance matrix of thesamplemoments not necessarily finite. We will show that, under certainconditions,the matrix $\Gamma$ of asymptotic variances of the analyzed samplemomentscan be substituted by a matrix $\Omega$ that is a function only of thecross-product moments of the observed variables. The main advantage of thisis thatinferences based on $\Omega$ are readily available in standard softwareforcovariance structure analysis, and do not require to compute samplefourth-order moments. An illustration with simulated data in the context ofregressionwith errors in variables will be presented.

The algebraic equality of two asymptotic tests for the hypothesis that a normal distribution has a specified correlation matrix

It is proved the algebraic equality between Jennrich's (1970) asymptotic$X^2$ test for equality of correlation matrices, and a Wald test statisticderived from Neudecker and Wesselman's (1990) expression of theasymptoticvariance matrix of the sample correlation matrix.

Asymptotic robust inferences in the analysis of mean and covariance structures

Structural equation models are widely used in economic, socialand behavioral studies to analyze linear interrelationships amongvariables, some of which may be unobservable or subject to measurementerror. Alternative estimation methods that exploit different distributionalassumptions are now available. The present paper deals with issues ofasymptotic statistical inferences, such as the evaluation of standarderrors of estimates and chi--square goodness--of--fit statistics,in the general context of mean and covariance structures. The emphasisis on drawing correct statistical inferences regardless of thedistribution of the data and the method of estimation employed. A(distribution--free) consistent estimate of $\Gamma$, the matrix ofasymptotic variances of the vector of sample second--order moments,will be used to compute robust standard errors and a robust chi--squaregoodness--of--fit squares. Simple modifications of the usual estimateof $\Gamma$ will also permit correct inferences in the case of multi--stage complex samples. We will also discuss the conditions under which,regardless of the distribution of the data, one can rely on the usual(non--robust) inferential statistics. Finally, a multivariate regressionmodel with errors--in--variables will be used to illustrate, by meansof simulated data, various theoretical aspects of the paper.

Multi-sample analysis of moment-structures: Asymptotic validity of inferences based on second-order moments

In moment structure analysis with nonnormal data, asymptotic valid inferences require the computation of a consistent (under general distributional assumptions) estimate of the matrix $\Gamma$ of asymptotic variances of sample second--order moments. Such a consistent estimate involves the fourth--order sample moments of the data. In practice, the use of fourth--order moments leads to computational burden and lack of robustness against small samples. In this paper we show that, under certain assumptions, correct asymptotic inferences can be attained when $\Gamma$ is replaced by a matrix $\Omega$ that involves only the second--order moments of the data. The present paper extends to the context of multi--sample analysis of second--order moment structures, results derived in the context of (simple--sample) covariance structure analysis (Satorra and Bentler, 1990). The results apply to a variety of estimation methods and general type of statistics. An example involving a test of equality of means under covariance restrictions illustrates theoretical aspects of the paper.

Understanding Insurance Company Financial Stability Ratings, January 2007

Choosing a financially strong insurance company is important when buying health insurance. You want the company to still be in business when you have claims, which can be 20 to 30 years from now. Insurance companies selling insurance in Iowa have met the minimum legal standards to be licensed by the State of Iowa Insurance Division. This licensure doesn’t mean the company has a high financial stability rating. Several independent rating agencies evaluate the financial stability of insurance companies. The rating for an individual insurance company is an opinion as to its financial strength and ability to pay claims in the future. When evaluating a company, a rating agency may consider a company's balance sheet strength, operating performance and business management and strategies.

Functional avidity of tumor antigen-specific CTL recognition directly correlates with the stability of MHC/peptide multimer binding to TCR.

Avidity of Ag recognition by tumor-specific T cells is one of the main parameters that determines the potency of a tumor rejection Ag. In this study we show that the relative efficiency of staining of tumor Ag-specific T lymphocytes with the corresponding fluorescent MHC class I/peptide multimeric complexes can considerably vary with staining conditions and does not necessarily correlate with avidity of Ag recognition. Instead, we found a clear correlation between avidity of Ag recognition and the stability of MHC class I/peptide multimeric complexes interaction with TCR as measured in dissociation kinetic experiments. These findings are relevant for both identification and isolation of tumor-reactive CTL.

Price increase and stability with new entries in Cournot markets

It is widely accepted in the literature about the classicalCournot oligopoly model that the loss of quasi competitiveness is linked,in the long run as new firms enter the market, to instability of the equilibrium. In this paper, though, we present a model in which a stableunique symmetric equilibrium is reached for any number of oligopolistsas industry price increases with each new entry. Consequently, the suspicion that non quasi competitiveness implies, in the long run, instabilityis proved false.

On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

Designing institutions for financial stability: Regulation and supervision by objective for the Euro area

In this paper, we discuss pros and cons ofdifferent models for financial market regulationand supervision and we present a proposal forthe re-organisation of regulatory and supervisoryagencies in the Euro Area. Our arguments areconsistent with both new theories and effectivebehaviour of financial intermediaries inindustrialized countries. Our proposed architecturefor financial market regulation is based on theassignment of different objectives or "finalities"to different authorities, both at the domesticand the European level. According to thisperspective, the three objectives of supervision- microeconomic stability, investor protectionand proper behaviour, efficiency and competition- should be assigned to three distinct Europeanauthorities, each one at the centre of a Europeansystem of financial regulators and supervisorsspecialized in overseeing the entire financialmarket with respect to a single regulatoryobjective and regardless of the subjective natureof the intermediaries. Each system should bestructured and organized similarly to the EuropeanSystem of Central Banks and work in connectionwith the central bank which would remain theinstitution responsible for price and macroeconomicstability. We suggest a plausible path to buildour 4-peak regulatory architecture in the Euro area.

The serine-rich N-terminal region of Arabidopsis phytochrome A is required for protein stability.

Deletion or substitution of the serine-rich N-terminal stretch of grass phytochrome A (phyA) has repeatedly been shown to yield a hyperactive photoreceptor when expressed under the control of a constitutive promoter in transgenic tobacco or Arabidopsis seedlings retaining their native phyA. These observations have lead to the proposal that the serine-rich region is involved in negative regulation of phyA signaling. To re-evaluate this conclusion in a more physiological context we produced transgenic Arabidopsis seedlings of the phyA-null background expressing Arabidopsis PHYA deleted in the sequence corresponding to amino acids 6-12, under the control of the native PHYA promoter. Compared to the transgenic seedlings expressing wild-type phyA, the seedlings bearing the mutated phyA showed normal responses to pulses of far-red (FR) light and impaired responses to continuous FR light. In yeast two-hybrid experiments, deleted phyA interacted normally with FHY1 and FHL, which are required for phyA accumulation in the nucleus. Immunoblot analysis showed reduced stability of deleted phyA under continuous red or FR light. The reduced physiological activity can therefore be accounted for by the enhanced destruction of the mutated phyA. These findings do not support the involvement of the serine-rich region in negative regulation but they are consistent with a recent report suggesting that phyA turnover is regulated by phosphorylation.

Fatty acids regulate Thy-1 antigen mRNA stability in T lymphocyte precursors.

In this study, we report the effect of fatty acids on the Thy-1 antigen mRNA decay. Low serum and synthetic medium culture conditions were used to demonstrate that fatty acids, which are important metabolites involved as second messengers in signal transduction, also influence the steady-state mRNA level. Detailed analysis demonstrated that polyunsaturated lipids attached to bovine serum albumin, such as linoleic, linolenic, and arachidonic acids, modulate gene expression specifically in the S1A T lymphoma cell line by inducing a 3-5-fold increase in the steady-state Thy-1 mRNA level, concomitant with a twofold increase in cell surface expression. A similar modulation was observed in the immature CD4-CD8- T cell precursors but not in mature thymocytes. Nuclear run-on and transfection experiments indicated that the observed Thy-1 mRNA level is post-transcriptionally regulated and that the presence of the coding region is sufficient for this adaptive response. A mechanism without a requirement for protein kinase C activation, but involving Ca2+ entry, could account for this difference in Thy-1 mRNA stability.

Asymptotic behaviour of the density in a parabolic SPDE

Consider the density of the solution $X(t,x)$ of a stochastic heat equation with small noise at a fixed $t\in [0,T]$, $x \in [0,1]$.In the paper we study the asymptotics of this density as the noise is vanishing. A kind of Taylor expansion in powers of the noiseparameter is obtained. The coefficients and the residue of the expansion are explicitly calculated.In order to obtain this result some type of exponential estimates of tail probabilities of the difference between the approximatingprocess and the limit one is proved. Also a suitable local integration by parts formula is developped.