A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Retention half times in the skeleton of plutonium and 90Sr from above-ground nuclear tests: a retrospective study of the Swiss population.

Plutonium and (90)Sr are considered to be among the most radiotoxic nuclides produced by the nuclear fission process. In spite of numerous studies on mammals and humans there is still no general agreement on the retention half time of both radionuclides in the skeleton in the general population. Here we determined plutonium and (90)Sr in human vertebrae in individuals deceased between 1960 and 2004 in Switzerland. Plutonium was measured by sensitive SF-ICP-MS techniques and (90)Sr by radiometric methods. We compared our results to the ones obtained for other environmental compartments to reveal the retention half time of NBT fallout (239)Pu and (90)Sr in trabecular bones of the Swiss population. Results show that plutonium has a retention half time of 40+/-14 years. In contrast (90)Sr has a shorter retention half time of 13.5+/-1.0 years. Moreover (90)Sr retention half time in vertebrae is shown to be linked to the retention half time in food and other environmental compartments. These findings demonstrate that the renewal of the vertebrae through calcium homeostatic control is faster for (90)Sr excretion than for plutonium excretion. The precise determination of the retention half time of plutonium in the skeleton will improve the biokinetic model of plutonium metabolism in humans.

Sequential screening

We present a model of price discrimination where a monopolistfaces a consumer who is privately informed about thedistribution of his valuation for an indivisible unit ofgood but has yet to learn privately the actual valuation.The monopolist sequentially screens the consumer with amenu of contracts:the consumer self-selects once by choosing a contract andthen self-selects again when he learns the actual valuation. A deterministic sequential mechanism is a menu of refundcontracts, each consisting of an advance payment and a refundamount in case of no consumption, but sequential mechanismsmay involve randomization.We characterize the optimal sequential mechanism when someconsumer types are more eager in the sense of first-orderstochastic dominance, and when some types face greatervaluation uncertainty in the sense of mean-preserving-spread.We show that it can be optimal to subsidize consumer typeswith smaller valuation uncertainty (through low refund, as inairplane ticket pricing) in order to reduce the rent to thosewith greater uncertainty. The size of distortion depends bothon the type distribution and on how informative the consumer'sinitial private knowledge is about his valuation, but noton how much he initially knows about the valuation per se.

Comment to "Weak instruments robust tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips curve" by Frank Kleibergen and Sophocles Mavroeidis

I discuss the identifiability of a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve when it is embedded in a small scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Identification problems emerge because not all the structural parameters are recoverable from the semi-structural ones and because the objective functions I consider are poorly behaved. The solution and the moment mappings are responsible for the problems.

A zero-delay sequential scheme for lossy coding of individual sequences

We consider adaptive sequential lossy coding of bounded individual sequences when the performance is measured by the sequentially accumulated mean squared distortion. Theencoder and the decoder are connected via a noiseless channel of capacity $R$ and both are assumed to have zero delay. No probabilistic assumptions are made on how the sequence to be encoded is generated. For any bounded sequence of length $n$, the distortion redundancy is defined as the normalized cumulative distortion of the sequential scheme minus the normalized cumulative distortion of the best scalarquantizer of rate $R$ which is matched to this particular sequence. We demonstrate the existence of a zero-delay sequential scheme which uses common randomization in the encoder and the decoder such that the normalized maximum distortion redundancy converges to zero at a rate $n^{-1/5}\log n$ as the length of the encoded sequence $n$ increases without bound.

Low malathion concentrations influence metabolism in Chironomus sancticaroli (Diptera, Chironomidae) in acute and chronic toxicity tests

Low malathion concentrations influence metabolism in Chironomus sancticaroli (Diptera, Chironomidae) in acute and chronic toxicity tests. Organophosphate compounds are used in agro-systems, and in programs to control pathogen vectors. Because they are continuously applied, organophosphates often reach water sources and may have an impact on aquatic life. The effects of acute and chronic exposure to the organophosphate insecticide malathion on the midge Chironomus sancticaroli are evaluated. To that end, three biochemical biomarkers, acetylcholinesterase (AChE), alpha (EST-α) and beta (EST-β) esterase were used. Acute bioassays with five concentrations of malathion, and chronic bioassays with two concentrations of malathion were carried out. In the acute exposure test, AChE, EST-α and EST-β activities declined by 66, 40 and 37%, respectively, at 0.251 µg L-1 and more than 80% at 1.37, 1.96 and 2.51 µg L-1. In chronic exposure tests, AChE and EST-α activities declined by 28 and 15% at 0.251 µg L-1. Results of the present study show that low concentrations of malathion can influence larval metabolism, indicating high toxicity for Chironomus sancticaroli and environmental risk associated with the use of organophosphates.

Phase 3 randomized trial on larynx preservation comparing sequential vs alternating chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Both induction chemotherapy followed by irradiation and concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy have been reported as valuable alternatives to total laryngectomy in patients with advanced larynx or hypopharynx cancer. We report results of the randomized phase 3 trial 24954 from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer. METHODS: Patients with resectable advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx (tumor stage T3-T4) or hypopharynx (T2-T4), with regional lymph nodes in the neck staged as N0-N2 and with no metastasis, were randomly assigned to treatment in the sequential (or control) or the alternating (or experimental) arm. In the sequential arm, patients with a 50% or more reduction in primary tumor size after two cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil received another two cycles, followed by radiotherapy (70 Gy total). In the alternating arm, a total of four cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10) were alternated with radiotherapy with 20 Gy during the three 2-week intervals between chemotherapy cycles (60 Gy total). All nonresponders underwent salvage surgery and postoperative radiotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to obtain time-to-event data. RESULTS: The 450 patients were randomly assigned to treatment (224 to the sequential arm and 226 to the alternating arm). Median follow-up was 6.5 years. Survival with a functional larynx was similar in sequential and alternating arms (hazard ratio of death and/or event = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.68 to 1.06), as were median overall survival (4.4 and 5.1 years, respectively) and median progression-free interval (3.0 and 3.1 years, respectively). Grade 3 or 4 mucositis occurred in 64 (32%) of the 200 patients in the sequential arm who received radiotherapy and in 47 (21%) of the 220 patients in the alternating arm. Late severe edema and/or fibrosis was observed in 32 (16%) patients in the sequential arm and in 25 (11%) in the alternating arm. CONCLUSIONS: Larynx preservation, progression-free interval, and overall survival were similar in both arms, as were acute and late toxic effects.

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and copeptin for predicting survival in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia remains the most common nosocomial infection in the critically ill and contributes to significant morbidity. Eventual decisions regarding withdrawal or maximal therapy are demanding and rely on physicians' experience. Additional objective tools for risk assessment may improve medical judgement. Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, reflecting the individual degree of organ dysfunction, might qualify for survival prediction in ventilator-associated pneumonia. We investigated the predictive value of the SOFA score and copeptin in ventilator-associated pneumonia. METHODS: One hundred one patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia were prospectively assessed. Death within 28 days after ventilator-associated pneumonia onset was the primary end point. RESULTS: The SOFA score and the copeptin levels at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors (P = .002 and P = .017, respectively). Both markers had different time courses in survivors and nonsurvivors (P < .001 and P = .006). Mean SOFA (average SOFA of 10 days after VAP onset) was superior in predicting 28-day survival as compared with SOFA and copeptin at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset (area under the curve, 0.90 vs 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serial-measured SOFA significantly exceeds those of single SOFA and copeptin measurements. Serial SOFA scores accurately predict outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

The weaker points of fish acute toxicity tests and how tests on embryos can solve some issues.

Fish acute toxicity tests play an important role in environmental risk assessment and hazard classification because they allow for first estimates of the relative toxicity of various chemicals in various species. However, such tests need to be carefully interpreted. Here we shortly summarize the main issues which are linked to the genetics and the condition of the test animals, the standardized test situations, the uncertainty about whether a given test species can be seen as representative to a given fish fauna, the often missing knowledge about possible interaction effects, especially with micropathogens, and statistical problems like small sample sizes and, in some cases, pseudoreplication. We suggest that multi-factorial embryo tests on ecologically relevant species solve many of these issues, and we shortly explain how such tests could be done to avoid the weaker points of fish acute toxicity tests.

Nitrogen application timing and soil inorganic nitrogen dynamics under no-till oat/maize sequential cropping

The timing of N application to maize is a key factor to be considered in no-till oat/maize sequential cropping. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of pre-planting, planting and sidedress N application on oat residue decomposition, on soil N immobilisation and remineralisation and on N uptake by maize plants in no-till oat/maize sequential cropping. Undisturbed soil cores of 10 and 20 cm diameter were collected from the 0-15 cm layer of a no-till Red Latossol, when the oat cover crop was in the milk-grain stage. Two greenhouse experiments were conducted simultaneously. Experiment A, established in the 10 cm diameter cores and without plant cultivation, was used to asses N dynamics in soil and oat residues. Experiment B, established in the 20 cm diameter cores and with maize cultivation, was used to assess plant growth and N uptake. An amount of 6.0 Mg ha-1 dry matter of oat residues was spread on the surface of the cores. A rate of 90 kg N ha-1 applied as ammonium sulphate in both experiments was split in pre-planting, planting and sidedress applications as follows: (a) 00-00-00 (control), (b) 90-00-00 (pre-planting application, 20 days before planting), (c) 00-90-00 (planting application), (d) 00-30-60 (split in a planting and a sidedress application 31 days after emergence), (e) 00-00-00* (control, without oat residue) and (f) 90-00-00* (pre-planting application, without oat residue). The N concentration and N content in oat residues were not affected during decomposition by N fertilisation. Most of the fertiliser NH4+-N was converted into NO3--N within 20 days after application. A significant decrease in NO3--N contents in the 0-4 cm layer was observed in all treatments between 40 and 60 days after the oat residue placement on the soil surface, suggesting the occurrence of N immobilisation in this period. Considering that most of the inorganic N was converted into NO3- and that no immobilisation of the pre planting fertiliser N occurred at the time of its application, it was possible to conclude that pre-planting applied N was prone to losses by leaching. On the other hand, with split N applications, maize plants showed N deficiency symptoms before sidedress application. Two indications for fertiliser-N management in no-till oat/maize sequential cropping could be suggested: (a) in case of split application, the sidedress should be earlier than 30 days after emergence, and (b) if integral application is preferred to save field operations, this should be done at planting.

Cómo realizar tests de usabilidad con personas ciegas

Se presentan una serie de recomendaciones prácticas para realizar tests de usabilidad con personas ciegas. Tanto la planificación, como la ejecución y el análisis posterior son comentados en detalle para aconsejar un conjunto de buenas prácticas. El artículo finaliza con algunas reflexiones críticas sobre la pretendida discapacidad de los usuarios ciegos.

Analyse de l'activité de match chez l'arbitre de football par accéléromètre et critique des tests de sélection FIFA

Introduction : Depuis 2005, le « Test FIFA » est utilisé chez les arbitres de football, comme critère de sélection pour monter dans les échelons de l'arbitrage et chaque arbitre base son entraînement dans cet objectif. Ce test a été développé grâce aux nombreux travaux scientifiques, ayant utilisé l'analyse vidéo, afin de quantifier les activités de match des arbitres et analyser leur performance en cours de match. Objectifs : Le but de ce travail a été d'évaluer la performance de l'arbitre, lors d'un match de football, au moyen d'un accéléromètre en raison de sa facilité d'utilisation et en particulier d'évaluer si au cours du match, il existe une éventuelle diminution de la capacité de performance engendrée par la fatigue. Enfin, à la lumière des résultats, nous avons pu discuter du bien fondé du «test par intervalle proposé par la FIFA» comme moyen d'estimation de la capacité physique d'un arbitre. Méthode : Il s'agit d'une étude prospective basée sur une analyse descriptive. Les données ont été récoltées dans des stades de football suisses ≥1ère Ligue, du 01.12.2011 au 01.12.2012. Le groupe étudié était composé de 5 arbitres de football de sexe masculin, dont deux officiant en 1ère Ligue et faisant partie des talents de l'Association Cantonale Vaudoise de Football (ACVF) et trois en Super League et Challenge League. Les 5 arbitres ont été équipés d'un iPhone 3GS®, muni d'une application, capable d'enregistrer les déplacements sur le terrain (arrêt, marche et course). Le traitement des données a été effectué par un programme Matlab®, élaboré par le Laboratoire des Mesures d'Analyse du Mouvement (LMAM) de l'EPFL, tout comme l'application en question. Pour ce travail ont été considérées les phases et les fréquences d'arrêt, de marche et de course tout au long de l'évolution de la partie. Résultats : Durant les 90 minutes du match, la répartition se fait de la manière suivante : 13,74% du temps total où l'accéléromètre ne mesure aucune activité, 33,70% concernent une activité de course alors que le reste, 52,48% est de la marche. Avec l'avancement dans le match, il est constaté une augmentation des phases d'arrêt et une diminution du temps de course. Une intensité d'effort plus importante est observée lors des 15 premières minutes du match (environ  41,7% de course), alors qu'en fin de la partie, il y a une alternance de marche et de course avec des efforts de plus en plus brefs. La détermination de la médiane de durée des différents efforts a montré qu'un épisode de marche ou de course étaient de 5-6 secondes. De plus, les épisodes de marche ou de course étaient rarement >20 secondes. Discussion : Les résultats montrent que l'accéléromètre est un système de mesure facile d'utilisation, permettant un gain de temps dans l'analyse des données pour évaluer la performance sportive. Les principaux résultats de cette étude, ont mis en évidence une diminution de l'intensité des activités physiques de l'arbitre avec l'avancement du match, résultant soit de sa propre fatigue, soit de celle des joueurs dictant le rythme du jeu. Cette diminution se traduit par des déplacements de plus en plus brefs au fil du temps. La mesure de médiane du temps de course et de marche (5-6 sec) correspond à une activité aérobie pour la marche et anaérobie alactique pour la course. Par conséquent, le « test par intervalle » de la FIFA actuel ne nous semble pas adéquat en raison de sa filière énergétique de type anaérobique lactique. Conclusion : Cette étude pilote apporte un nouveau type d'instrumentation efficace et simple, jamais employé auparavant dans l'analyse des activités de match des arbitres de football. Il permet d'explorer des mouvements avec précision au fil du match et apporte un nouvel aspect sur la quantification de performance des arbitres non exploré jusqu'ici. Après analyse de l'ensemble des paramètres, il semble que le test FIFA ne soit pas adapté à la performance exigée par l'arbitrage.