A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Variance reduction methods for simulation of densities on Wiener space

We develop a general error analysis framework for the Monte Carlo simulationof densities for functionals in Wiener space. We also study variancereduction methods with the help of Malliavin derivatives. For this, wegive some general heuristic principles which are applied to diffusionprocesses. A comparison with kernel density estimates is made.

Sequential screening

We present a model of price discrimination where a monopolistfaces a consumer who is privately informed about thedistribution of his valuation for an indivisible unit ofgood but has yet to learn privately the actual valuation.The monopolist sequentially screens the consumer with amenu of contracts:the consumer self-selects once by choosing a contract andthen self-selects again when he learns the actual valuation. A deterministic sequential mechanism is a menu of refundcontracts, each consisting of an advance payment and a refundamount in case of no consumption, but sequential mechanismsmay involve randomization.We characterize the optimal sequential mechanism when someconsumer types are more eager in the sense of first-orderstochastic dominance, and when some types face greatervaluation uncertainty in the sense of mean-preserving-spread.We show that it can be optimal to subsidize consumer typeswith smaller valuation uncertainty (through low refund, as inairplane ticket pricing) in order to reduce the rent to thosewith greater uncertainty. The size of distortion depends bothon the type distribution and on how informative the consumer'sinitial private knowledge is about his valuation, but noton how much he initially knows about the valuation per se.

A zero-delay sequential scheme for lossy coding of individual sequences

We consider adaptive sequential lossy coding of bounded individual sequences when the performance is measured by the sequentially accumulated mean squared distortion. Theencoder and the decoder are connected via a noiseless channel of capacity $R$ and both are assumed to have zero delay. No probabilistic assumptions are made on how the sequence to be encoded is generated. For any bounded sequence of length $n$, the distortion redundancy is defined as the normalized cumulative distortion of the sequential scheme minus the normalized cumulative distortion of the best scalarquantizer of rate $R$ which is matched to this particular sequence. We demonstrate the existence of a zero-delay sequential scheme which uses common randomization in the encoder and the decoder such that the normalized maximum distortion redundancy converges to zero at a rate $n^{-1/5}\log n$ as the length of the encoded sequence $n$ increases without bound.

Space Utilization and Building Study for the Department of General Services, October 9, 2000

Purposes of this Report: • Recommend the most logical and economical options to address state governmental space needs in the Polk County metropolitan area to the year 2010. • Include building size, location, phasing, financing, method of project delivery and estimated cost. • Develop a software tool to compare costs of leasing vs. ownership of space. Methodology: Identify: 1. Current amount and location of owned and leased space, by agency; 2. Types of space and whether best located on or off of the Capitol Complex; 3. Utilization of space, noting over-crowding and under-utilization; 4. Current number of workstations for full and part time employees, Personnel Employment Organization (PEO) workers, contractors, interns, etc.; and, 5. History of staff levels to assist in the prediction of staff growth. Scope: This report focuses on 10 state-owned buildings located on the Capitol Complex and 48 leased spaces in the Polk County metropolitan area. (See Figures 1 and 2.) • Due to a separate space study under way by the Legislature, implications of area and staff for the State Capitol building are included only for the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Auditor and the Department of Management. • Because it is largely a museum building that does not have office space available for other agencies, the area and staff of the Historical Building are not fully addressed. • Only the parking implications of the new Judicial Building are included in this study because the building space is under the jurisdiction of the Judicial Branch and not available for other agencies. Several state-owned buildings are not included in the scope of this report, generally because they have highly focused purposes, and their space is not available for assignment to other agencies. Several leased locations are not included for similar reasons, including leases that do not fall within the authority of the Department of General Services.

Beyond Centre and Margin: (Self-)translation and the Ecopoetics of Space in Geetanjali Shree's "Mai"

Croisant les concepts de traduction culturelle et une approche « queer » de l'identité, notre article propose une lecture de l'utilisation de tropes végétaux ou organiques dans le roman de Geetanjali Shree, Mai, comme critique de la logique binaire du centre et de la marge qui caractérise autant l'orientalisme que le système patriarcal. Ecrit à la première personne, le roman invente un nouvel espace d'énonciation en narrant l'enfance et la jeunesse d'une jeune femme et la constitution de son identité à travers la relation complexe qu'elle entretient avec sa mère, son milieu familial issu de la classe moyenne du Nord de l'Inde, et la société indienne contemporaine aux prises avec la globalisation. Toutefois, ce cercle ou centre est en constante évolution puisque le contexte postcolonial dans lequel ces identités féminines se situent nous amène à considérer d'autres modes d'intervention (agency) qui opèrent non seulement à travers la prise de parole mais aussi à travers l'usage stratégique du silence. Fleurissant entre l'anglais et le hindi, ces identités hybrides nous poussent à revoir nos cartographies critiques et à investiguer et investir des lieux liminaux dans lesquels des subjectivités traversent les frontières et transgressent les limites imposées par l'ordre patriarcal et les cartographies imposées par les centres de pouvoir.

Phase 3 randomized trial on larynx preservation comparing sequential vs alternating chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Both induction chemotherapy followed by irradiation and concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy have been reported as valuable alternatives to total laryngectomy in patients with advanced larynx or hypopharynx cancer. We report results of the randomized phase 3 trial 24954 from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer. METHODS: Patients with resectable advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx (tumor stage T3-T4) or hypopharynx (T2-T4), with regional lymph nodes in the neck staged as N0-N2 and with no metastasis, were randomly assigned to treatment in the sequential (or control) or the alternating (or experimental) arm. In the sequential arm, patients with a 50% or more reduction in primary tumor size after two cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil received another two cycles, followed by radiotherapy (70 Gy total). In the alternating arm, a total of four cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10) were alternated with radiotherapy with 20 Gy during the three 2-week intervals between chemotherapy cycles (60 Gy total). All nonresponders underwent salvage surgery and postoperative radiotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to obtain time-to-event data. RESULTS: The 450 patients were randomly assigned to treatment (224 to the sequential arm and 226 to the alternating arm). Median follow-up was 6.5 years. Survival with a functional larynx was similar in sequential and alternating arms (hazard ratio of death and/or event = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.68 to 1.06), as were median overall survival (4.4 and 5.1 years, respectively) and median progression-free interval (3.0 and 3.1 years, respectively). Grade 3 or 4 mucositis occurred in 64 (32%) of the 200 patients in the sequential arm who received radiotherapy and in 47 (21%) of the 220 patients in the alternating arm. Late severe edema and/or fibrosis was observed in 32 (16%) patients in the sequential arm and in 25 (11%) in the alternating arm. CONCLUSIONS: Larynx preservation, progression-free interval, and overall survival were similar in both arms, as were acute and late toxic effects.

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life,human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources forEarthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over thecourse of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the formof a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capabilityto manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves theexisting knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system willat first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursormonitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarningsystem. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine,integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing andnew proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, faultmaps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the maincomponents of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precisionin the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It isbased in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-eventdamage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of ageographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs toprovide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, suchas the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included.

State-space approach to evaluate the relation between soil physical and chemical properties

The state-space approach is used to evaluate the relation between soil physical and chemical properties in an area cultivated with sugarcane. The experiment was carried out on a Rhodic Kandiudalf in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Sugarcane was planted on an area of 0.21 ha i.e., in 15 rows 100 m long, spaced 1.4 m. Soil water content, soil organic matter, clay content and aggregate stability were sampled along a transect of 84 points, meter by meter. The state-space approach is used to evaluate how the soil water content is affected by itself and by soil organic matter, clay content, and aggregate stability of neighboring locations, in different combinations, aiming to contribute to a better understanding of the relation among these variables in the soil. Results show that soil water contents were successfully estimated by this approach. Best performances were found when the estimate of soil water content at locations i was related to soil water content, clay content and aggregate stability at locations i-1. Results also indicate that this state-space model using all series describes the soil water content better than any equivalent multiple regression equation.

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and copeptin for predicting survival in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia remains the most common nosocomial infection in the critically ill and contributes to significant morbidity. Eventual decisions regarding withdrawal or maximal therapy are demanding and rely on physicians' experience. Additional objective tools for risk assessment may improve medical judgement. Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, reflecting the individual degree of organ dysfunction, might qualify for survival prediction in ventilator-associated pneumonia. We investigated the predictive value of the SOFA score and copeptin in ventilator-associated pneumonia. METHODS: One hundred one patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia were prospectively assessed. Death within 28 days after ventilator-associated pneumonia onset was the primary end point. RESULTS: The SOFA score and the copeptin levels at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors (P = .002 and P = .017, respectively). Both markers had different time courses in survivors and nonsurvivors (P < .001 and P = .006). Mean SOFA (average SOFA of 10 days after VAP onset) was superior in predicting 28-day survival as compared with SOFA and copeptin at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset (area under the curve, 0.90 vs 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serial-measured SOFA significantly exceeds those of single SOFA and copeptin measurements. Serial SOFA scores accurately predict outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.