883 resultados para probabilistic tests
Resumo:
Platelet P2YI2 receptor inhibition with clopidogrel, prasugrel or ticagrelor plays a key role to prevent recurrent ischaemic events after percutaneous coronary intervention in acute coronary syndromes or elective settings. The degree of platelet inhibition depends on the antiplatelet medication used and is influenced by clinical and genetic factors. A concept of therapeutic window exists. On one side, efficient anti-aggregation is required in order to reduce cardio-vascular events. On the other side, an excessive platelet inhibition represents a risk of bleeding complications. This article describes the current knowledge about some platelet function tests and genetic tests and summarises their role in the clinical practice.
Resumo:
Despite a low positive predictive value, diagnostic tests such as complete blood count (CBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are commonly used to evaluate whether infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis (EOS) should be treated with antibiotics. We investigated the impact of implementing a protocol aiming at reducing the number of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for EOS in order to compare the diagnostic performance of repeated clinical examination with CBC and CRP measurement. The primary outcome was the time between birth and the first dose of antibiotics in infants treated for suspected EOS. Among the 11,503 infants born at ≥35 weeks during the study period, 222 were treated with antibiotics for suspected EOS. The proportion of infants receiving antibiotics for suspected EOS was 2.1% and 1.7% before and after the change of protocol (p = 0.09). Reduction of diagnostic tests was associated with earlier antibiotic treatment in infants treated for suspected EOS (hazard ratio 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.07; p <0.001), and in infants with neonatal infection (hazard ratio 2.20; 95% CI 1.19-4.06; p = 0.01). There was no difference in the duration of hospital stay nor in the proportion of infants requiring respiratory or cardiovascular support before and after the change of protocol. Reduction of diagnostic tests such as CBC and CRP does not delay initiation of antibiotic treatment in infants with suspected EOS. The importance of clinical examination in infants with risk factors for EOS should be emphasised.
Resumo:
Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.
Resumo:
Recent single-cell studies in monkeys (Romo et al., 2004) show that the activity of neurons in the ventral premotor cortex covaries with the animal's decisions in a perceptual comparison task regarding the frequency of vibrotactile events. The firing rate response of these neurons was dependent only on the frequency differences between the two applied vibrations, the sign of that difference being the determining factor for correct task performance. We present a biophysically realistic neurodynamical model that can account for the most relevant characteristics of this decision-making-related neural activity. One of the nontrivial predictions of this model is that Weber's law will underlie the perceptual discrimination behavior. We confirmed this prediction in behavioral tests of vibrotactile discrimination in humans and propose a computational explanation of perceptual discrimination that accounts naturally for the emergence of Weber's law. We conclude that the neurodynamical mechanisms and computational principles underlying the decision-making processes in this perceptual discrimination task are consistent with a fluctuation-driven scenario in a multistable regime.
Resumo:
As a result of the construction of the Saylorville Dam and Reservoir on the Des Moines River, six highway bridges crossing the river were scheduled for removal. One of these, an old pinconnected high-truss single-lane bridge, was selected for a testing program which included ultimate load tests. The purpose of the ultimate load tests, which are summarized in this report, was to relate design and rating procedures presently used in bridge design to the field behavior of this type of truss bridge. The ultimate load tests consisted of ultimate load testing of one span of the bridge, of two I-shaped floorbeams, and of two panels of the timber deck. The theoretical capacity of each of these components is compared with the results from the field tests.
Resumo:
As a result of the construction of the Saylorville Dam and Reservoir on the Des Moines River, six highway bridges crossing the river were scheduled for removal. Two of these were incorporated into a comprehensive test program to study the behavior of old pin-connected high-truss single-lane bridges. The test program consisted of ultimate load tests, service load tests and a supplementary test program. The results reported in this report cover the service load tests on the two bridges as well as the supplementary tests, both static and fatigue, of eyebar members removed from the two bridges. The field test results of the service loading are compared with theoretical results of the truss analysis.
Resumo:
In 1957, the Iowa State Highway Commission, with financial assistance from the aluminum industry, constructed a 220-ft (67-m) long, four-span continuous, aluminum girder bridge to carry traffic on Clive Road (86th Street) over Interstate 80 near Des Moines, Iowa. The bridge had four, welded I-shape girders that were fabricated in pairs with welded diaphragms between an exterior and an interior girder. The interior diaphragms between the girder pairs were bolted to girder brackets. A composite, reinforced concrete deck served as the roadway surface. The bridge, which had performed successfully for about 35 years of service, was removed in the fall of 1993 to make way for an interchange at the same location. Prior to the bridge demolition, load tests were conducted to monitor girder and diaphragm bending strains and deflections in the northern end span. Fatigue testing of the aluminum girders that were removed from the end spans were conducted by applying constant-amplitude, cyclic loads. These tests established the fatigue strength of an existing, welded, flange-splice detail and added, welded, flange-cover plates and horizontal web plate attachment details. This part, Part 2, of the final report focuses on the fatigue tests of the aluminum girder sections that were removed from the bridge and on the analysis of the experimental data to establish the fatigue strength of full-size specimens. Seventeen fatigue fractures that were classified as Category E weld details developed in the seven girder test specimens. Linear regression analyses of the fatigue test results established both nominal and experimental stress-range versus load cycle relationships (SN curves) for the fatigue strength of fillet-welded connections. The nominal strength SN curve obtained by this research essentially matched the SN curve for Category E aluminum weldments given in the AASHTO LRFD specifications. All of the Category E fatigue fractures that developed in the girder test specimens satisfied the allowable SN relationship specified by the fatigue provisions of the Aluminum Association. The lower-bound strength line that was set at two standard deviations below the least squares regression line through the fatigue fracture data points related well with the Aluminum Association SN curve. The results from the experimental tests of this research have provided additional information regarding behavioral characteristics of full-size, aluminum members and have confirmed that aluminum has the strength properties needed for highway bridge girders.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVES: Many patients may believe that HIV screening is included in routine preoperative work-ups. We examined what proportion of patients undergoing preoperative blood testing believed that they had been tested for HIV. METHODS: All patients hospitalized for elective orthopaedic surgery between January and December 2007 were contacted and asked to participate in a 15-min computer-assisted telephone interview (n = 1330). The primary outcome was to determine which preoperative tests patients believed had been performed from a choice of glucose, clotting, HIV serology and cholesterol, and what percentage of patients interpreted the lack of result communication as a normal or negative test. The proportion of patients agreeable to HIV screening prior to future surgery was also determined. RESULTS: A total of 991 patients (75%) completed the questionnaire. Three hundred and seventy-five of these 991 patients (38%) believed incorrectly that they had been tested for HIV preoperatively. Younger patients were significantly more likely to believe that an HIV test had been performed (mean age 46 vs. 50 years for those who did not believe that an HIV test had been performed; P < 0.0001). Of the patients who believed that a test had been performed but received no result, 96% interpreted lack of a result as a negative HIV test. Over 80% of patients surveyed stated that they would agree to routine HIV screening prior to future surgery. A higher acceptance rate was associated with younger age (mean age 47 years for those who would agree vs. 56 years for those who would not; P < 0.0001) and male sex ( P < 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Many patients believe that a preoperative blood test routinely screens for HIV. The incorrect assumption that a lack of result communication indicates a negative test may contribute to delays in HIV diagnoses.
Resumo:
In this paper, two probabilistic adaptive algorithmsfor jointly detecting active users in a DS-CDMA system arereported. The first one, which is based on the theory of hiddenMarkov models (HMM’s) and the Baum–Wech (BW) algorithm,is proposed within the CDMA scenario and compared withthe second one, which is a previously developed Viterbi-basedalgorithm. Both techniques are completely blind in the sense thatno knowledge of the signatures, channel state information, ortraining sequences is required for any user. Once convergencehas been achieved, an estimate of the signature of each userconvolved with its physical channel response (CR) and estimateddata sequences are provided. This CR estimate can be used toswitch to any decision-directed (DD) adaptation scheme. Performanceof the algorithms is verified via simulations as well as onexperimental data obtained in an underwater acoustics (UWA)environment. In both cases, performance is found to be highlysatisfactory, showing the near–far resistance of the analyzed algorithms.
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The impact of curative radiotherapy depends mainly on the total dose delivered homogenously in the targeted volume. Nevertheless, the dose delivery is limited by the tolerated dose of the surrounding healthy tissues. Two different side effects (acute and late) can occur during and after radiotherapy. Of particular interest are the radiation-induced sequelae due to their irreversibility and the potential impact on daily quality of life. In a population treated in one center with the same technique, it appears that individual radiosensitivity clearly exists. In the hypothesis that genetic is involved in this area of research, lymphocytes seem to be the tissue of choice due to easy accessibility. Recently, low percentage of CD4 and CD8 lymphocyte apoptosis were shown to be correlated with high grade of sequelae. In addition, recent data suggest that patients with severe radiation-induced late side effects possess four or more SNP in candidate genes (ATM, SOD2, TGFB1, XRCC1 et XRCC3) and low radiation-induced CD8 lymphocyte apoptosis in vitro.
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We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.
Resumo:
Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää Venäjän, Slovakian, Tsekin, Romanian, Bulgarian, Unkarin ja Puolan osakemarkkinoiden heikkojen ehtojen tehokkuutta. Tämä tutkielma on kvantitatiivinen tutkimus ja päiväkohtaiset indeksin sulkemisarvot kerättiin Datastreamin tietokannasta. Data kerättiin pörssien ensimmäisestä kaupankäyntipäivästä aina vuoden 2006 elokuun loppuun saakka. Analysoinnin tehostamiseksi dataa tutkittiin koko aineistolla, sekä kahdella aliperiodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta on testattu neljällä tilastollisella metodilla, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotesti ja epäparametrinen runs-testi. Tavoitteena on myös selvittääesiintyykö kyseisillä markkinoilla viikonpäiväanomalia. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Viikonpäiväanomalia on löydettävissä kaikilta edellä mainituilta osakemarkkinoilta paitsi Tsekin markkinoilta. Merkittävää, positiivista tai negatiivista autokorrelaatiota, on löydettävissä kaikilta osakemarkkinoilta, myös Ljung-Box testi osoittaa kaikkien markkinoiden tehottomuutta täydellä periodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden satunnaiskulku hylätään runs-testin perusteella kaikilta muilta paitsi Slovakian osakemarkkinoilla, ainakin tarkastellessa koko aineistoa tai ensimmäistä aliperiodia. Aineisto ei myöskään ole normaalijakautunut minkään indeksin tai aikajakson kohdalla. Nämä havainnot osoittavat, että kyseessä olevat markkinat eivät ole heikkojen ehtojen mukaan tehokkaita