Human papillomavirus related head and neck cancer survival: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCCs) are reported to have improved prognosis and survival in comparison to other head and neck squamous cell cancers (HNSCCs). This systematic review and meta-analysis examines survival differences in HPV-positive HNSCC and OPSCC subtypes including tonsillar carcinoma in studies not previously investigated. Four electronic databases were searched from their inception till April 2011. A random effects meta-analysis was used to pool study estimates evaluating disease-specific (death from HNSCC), overall (all-cause mortality), progression-free and disease-free (recurrence free) survival outcomes in HPV-positive vs. HPV-negative HNSCCs. All statistical tests were two-sided. Forty-two studies were included. Patients with HPV-positive HNSCC had a 54% better overall survival compared to HPV-negative patients HR 0.46 (95% CI 0.37-0.57); the pooled HR for tonsillar cancer and OPSCC was 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.77) and HR 0.47 (95% CI 0.35-0.62) respectively. The pooled HR for disease specific survival was 0.28 (95% CI 0.19-0.40); similar effect sizes were found irrespective of the adjustment for confounders, HPV detection methods or study location. Both progression-free survival and disease-free survival were significantly improved in HPV-positive HNSCCs. HPV-positive HNSCCs and OPSCCs patients have a significantly lower disease specific mortality and are less likely to experience progression or recurrence of their cancer than HPV-negative patients; findings which have connotations for treatment selection in these patients.

Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.

Estimates of peer effects in adolescent smoking across twenty six European countries

Although it is widely believed that one of the key factors influencing whether an adolescent smokes or not is the smoking behaviour of his or her peers, empirical evidence on the magnitude of such peer effects, and even on their existence, is mixed. This existing evidence comes from a range of studies using a variety of country-specific data sources and a variety of identification strategies. This paper exploits a rich source of individual level, school-based, survey data on adolescent substance use across countries - the 2007 European Schools Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs - to provide estimates of peer effects between classmates in adolescent smoking for 75,000 individuals across 26 European countries, using the same methods in each case. The results suggest statistically significant peer effects in almost all cases. These peer effects estimates are large: on average across countries, the probability that a 'typical' adolescent smokes increases by between.31 and.38 percentage points for a one percentage point increase in the proportion of classmates that smoke. Further, estimated peer effects in adolescent smoking are stronger intra-gender than inter-gender. They also vary across countries: in Belgium, for example, a one percentage point increase in reference group smoking is associated with a.16 to.27 percentage point increase in own smoking probability; in the Netherlands the corresponding increase is between.42 and.59 percentage points. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

External beam radiotherapy in exudative age-related macular degeneration: a pooled analysis of phase I data

In recent years external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) has been proposed as a treatment for the wet form of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) where choroidal neovascularization (CNV) is the hallmark. While the majority of pilot (Phase I) studies have reported encouraging results, a few have found no benefit, i.e. EBRT was not found to result in either improvement or stabilization of visual acuity of the treated eye. The natural history of visual loss in untreated CNV of AMD is highly variable. Loss of vision is influenced mainly by the presenting acuity, and size and composition of the lesion, and to a lesser extent by a variety of other factors. Thus the variable outcome reported by the small Phase I studies of EBRT published to date may simply reflect the variation in baseline factors. We therefore obtained information on 409 patients treated with EBRT from eight independent centres, which included details of visual acuity at baseline and at subsequent follow-up visits. Analysis of the data showed that 22.5% and 14.9% of EBRT-treated eyes developed moderate and severe loss of vision, respectively, during an average follow-up of 13 months. Initial visual acuity, which explained 20.5% of the variation in visual loss, was the most important baseline factor studied. Statistically significant differences in loss of vision were observed between centres, after considering the effects of case mix factors. Comparisons with historical data suggested that while moderate visual loss was similar to that of the natural history of the disease, the likelihood of suffering severe visual loss was halved. However, the benefit in terms of maintained/improved vision in the treated eye was modest.

Interventions to improve the appropriate use of polypharmacy for older people

Background
Inappropriate polypharmacy is a particular concern in older people and is associated with negative health outcomes. Choosing the best interventions to improve appropriate polypharmacy is a priority, hence interest in appropriate polypharmacy, where many medicines may be used to achieve better clinical outcomes for patients, is growing.

Objectives
This review sought to determine which interventions, alone or in combination, are effective in improving the appropriate use of polypharmacy and reducing medication-related problems in older people.

Search methods
In November 2013, for this first update, a range of literature databases including MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched, and handsearching of reference lists was performed. Search terms included 'polypharmacy', 'medication appropriateness' and 'inappropriate prescribing'.

Selection criteria
A range of study designs were eligible. Eligible studies described interventions affecting prescribing aimed at improving appropriate polypharmacy in people 65 years of age and older in which a validated measure of appropriateness was used (e.g. Beers criteria, Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI)).

Data collection and analysis
Two review authors independently reviewed abstracts of eligible studies, extracted data and assessed risk of bias of included studies. Study-specific estimates were pooled, and a random-effects model was used to yield summary estimates of effect and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The GRADE (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) approach was used to assess the overall quality of evidence for each pooled outcome.

Main results
Two studies were added to this review to bring the total number of included studies to 12. One intervention consisted of computerised decision support; 11 complex, multi-faceted pharmaceutical approaches to interventions were provided in a variety of settings. Interventions were delivered by healthcare professionals, such as prescribers and pharmacists. Appropriateness of prescribing was measured using validated tools, including the MAI score post intervention (eight studies), Beers criteria (four studies), STOPP criteria (two studies) and START criteria (one study). Interventions included in this review resulted in a reduction in inappropriate medication usage. Based on the GRADE approach, the overall quality of evidence for all pooled outcomes ranged from very low to low. A greater reduction in MAI scores between baseline and follow-up was seen in the intervention group when compared with the control group (four studies; mean difference -6.78, 95% CI -12.34 to -1.22). Postintervention pooled data showed a lower summated MAI score (five studies; mean difference -3.88, 95% CI -5.40 to -2.35) and fewer Beers drugs per participant (two studies; mean difference -0.1, 95% CI -0.28 to 0.09) in the intervention group compared with the control group. Evidence of the effects of interventions on hospital admissions (five studies) and of medication-related problems (six studies) was conflicting.

Authors' conclusions
It is unclear whether interventions to improve appropriate polypharmacy, such as pharmaceutical care, resulted in clinically significant improvement; however, they appear beneficial in terms of reducing inappropriate prescribing.

JPEG Image Steganalysis Using Multivariate PDF Estimates With MRF Cliques

Blind steganalysis of JPEG images is addressed by modeling the correlations among the DCT coefficients using K -variate (K = 2) p.d.f. estimates (p.d.f.s) constructed by means of Markov random field (MRF) cliques. The reasoning of using high variate p.d.f.s together with MRF cliques for image steganalysis is explained via a classical detection problem. Although our approach has many improvements over the current state-of-the-art, it suffers from the high dimensionality and the sparseness of the high variate p.d.f.s. The dimensionality problem as well as the sparseness problem are solved heuristically by means of dimensionality reduction and feature selection algorithms. The detection accuracy of the proposed method(s) is evaluated over Memon's (30.000 images) and Goljan's (1912 images) image sets. It is shown that practically applicable steganalysis systems are possible with a suitable dimensionality reduction technique and these systems can provide, in general, improved detection accuracy over the current state-of-the-art. Experimental results also justify this assertion.

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in women attending cervical screening in the UK and Ireland:New data from northern Ireland and a systematic review and meta-analysis

There is substantial international variation in human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence; this study details the first report from Northern Ireland and additionally provides a systematic review and meta-analysis pooling the prevalence of high-risk (HR-HPV) subtypes among women with normal cytology in the UK and Ireland. Between February and December 2009, routine liquid based cytology (LBC) samples were collected for HPV detection (Roche Cobas® 4800 [PCR]) among unselected women attending for cervical cytology testing. Four electronic databases, including MEDLINE, were then searched from their inception till April 2011. A random effects meta-analysis was used to calculate a pooled HR-HPV prevalence and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). 5,712 women, mean age 39 years (±SD 11.9 years; range 20-64 years), were included in the analysis, of which 5,068 (88.7%), 417 (7.3%) and 72 (1.3%) had normal, low, and high-grade cytological findings, respectively. Crude HR-HPV prevalence was 13.2% (95% CI, 12.7-13.7) among women with normal cytology and increased with cytological grade. In meta-analysis the pooled HR-HPV prevalence among those with normal cytology was 0.12 (95% CIs, 0.10-0.14; 21 studies) with the highest prevalence in younger women. HPV 16 and HPV 18 specific estimates were 0.03 (95% CI, 0.02-0.05) and 0.01 (95% CI, 0.01-0.02), respectively. The findings of this Northern Ireland study and meta-analysis verify the prevalent nature of HPV infection among younger women. Reporting of the type-specific prevalence of HPV infection is relevant for evaluating the impact of future HPV immunization initiatives, particularly against HR-HPV types other than HPV 16 and 18. J. Med. Virol. 85:295-308, 2013. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of progenitor mass estimates for the type IIP SN 2012A

We present the one-year long observing campaign of SN 2012A which exploded in the nearby (9.8 Mpc) irregular galaxy NGC 3239. The photometric evolution is that of a normal type IIP supernova. The absolute maximum magnitude, with MB = -16.23 +- 0.16 mag. SN2012A reached a peak luminosity of about 2X10**42 erg/s, which is brighter than those of other SNe with a similar 56Ni mass. The latter was estimated from the luminosity in the exponential tail of the light curve and found to be M(56Ni) = 0.011 +-0.004 Msun. The spectral evolution of SN 2012A is also typical of SN IIP, from the early spectra dominated by a blue continuum and very broad (~10**4 km/s) Balmer lines, to the late-photospheric spectra characterized by prominent P-Cygni features of metal lines (Fe II, Sc II, Ba II, Ti II, Ca II, Na ID). The photospheric velocity is moderately low, ~3X10**3 km/s at 50 days, for the low optical depth metal lines. The nebular spectrum obtained 394 days after the shock breakout shows the typical features of SNe IIP and the strength of the [O I] doublet suggests a progenitor of intermediate mass, similar to SN 2004et (~15 Msun). A candidate progenitor for SN 2012A has been identified in deep, pre-explosion K'-band Gemini North (NIRI) images, and found to be consistent with a star with a bolometric magnitude -7.08+-0.36 (log L/Lsun = 4.73 +- 0.14$ dex). The magnitude of the recovered progenitor in archival images points toward a moderate-mass 10.5 (-2/+4.5) Msun star as the precursor of SN 2012A. The explosion parameters and progenitor mass were also estimated by means of a hydrodynamical model, fitting the bolometric light curve, the velocity and the temperature evolution. We found a best fit for a kinetic energy of 0.48 foe, an initial radius of 1.8X10**13 cm and ejecta mass of 12.5 Msun.

Stated choices and benefit estimates in the context of traffic calming schemes:Utility maximization, regret minimization, or both?

This paper proposes a discrete mixture model which assigns individuals, up to a probability, to either a class of random utility (RU) maximizers or a class of random regret (RR) minimizers, on the basis of their sequence of observed choices. Our proposed model advances the state of the art of RU-RR mixture models by (i) adding and simultaneously estimating a membership model which predicts the probability of belonging to a RU or RR class; (ii) adding a layer of random taste heterogeneity within each behavioural class; and (iii) deriving a welfare measure associated with the RU-RR mixture model and consistent with referendum-voting, which is the adequate mechanism of provision for such local public goods. The context of our empirical application is a stated choice experiment concerning traffic calming schemes. We find that the random parameter RU-RR mixture model not only outperforms its fixed coefficient counterpart in terms of fit-as expected-but also in terms of plausibility of membership determinants of behavioural class. In line with psychological theories of regret, we find that, compared to respondents who are familiar with the choice context (i.e. the traffic calming scheme), unfamiliar respondents are more likely to be regret minimizers than utility maximizers. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Impact of community based, specialist palliative care teams on hospitalisations and emergency department visits late in life and hospital deaths: a pooled analysis

Objective: To determine the pooled effect of exposure to one of 11 specialist palliative care teams providing services in patients’ homes.Design: Pooled analysis of a retrospective cohort study.Setting: Ontario, Canada.Participants: 3109 patients who received care from specialist palliative care teams in 2009-11 (exposed) matched by propensity score to 3109 patients who received usual care (unexposed).Intervention: The palliative care teams studied served different geographies and varied in team composition and size but had the same core team members and role: a core group of palliative care physicians, nurses, and family physicians who provide integrated palliative care to patients in their homes. The teams’ role was to manage symptoms, provide education and care, coordinate services, and be available without interruption regardless of time or day.Main outcome measures: Patients (a) being in hospital in the last two weeks of life; (b) having an emergency department visit in the last two weeks of life; or (c) dying in hospital.Results: In both exposed and unexposed groups, about 80% had cancer and 78% received end of life homecare services for the same average duration. Across all palliative care teams, 970 (31.2%) of the exposed group were in hospital and 896 (28.9%) had an emergency department visit in the last two weeks of life respectively, compared with 1219 (39.3%) and 1070 (34.5%) of the unexposed group (P<0.001). The pooled relative risks of being in hospital and having an emergency department visit in late life comparing exposed versus unexposed were 0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.76) and 0.77 (0.69 to 0.86) respectively. Fewer exposed than unexposed patients died in hospital (503 (16.2%) v 887 (28.6%), P<0.001), and the pooled relative risk of dying in hospital was 0.46 (0.40 to 0.52).Conclusions: Community based specialist palliative care teams, despite variation in team composition and geographies, were effective at reducing acute care use and hospital deaths at the end of life.