The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

Lq estimates for rearrangements of Fourier series

This work is concerned with estimating the upper envelopes S* of the absolute values of the partial sums of rearranged trigonometric sums. A.M. Garsia [Annals of Math. 79 (1964), 634-9] gave an estimate for the L₂ norms of the S*, averaged over all rearrangements of the original (finite) sum. This estimate enabled him to prove that the Fourier series of any function in L₂ can be rearranged so that it converges a.e. The main result of this thesis is a similar estimate of the L_q norms of the S*, for all even integers q. This holds for finite linear combinations of functions which satisfy a condition which is a generalization of orthonormality in the L₂ case. This estimate for finite sums is extended to Fourier series of L_q functions; it is shown that there are functions to which the Men’shov-Paley Theorem does not apply, but whose Fourier series can nevertheless be rearranged so that the S* of the rearranged series is in L_q.

Energy inequalities and error estimates for axisymmetric torsion of thin elastic shells of revolution

The problem motivating this investigation is that of pure axisymmetric torsion of an elastic shell of revolution. The analysis is carried out within the framework of the three-dimensional linear theory of elastic equilibrium for homogeneous, isotropic solids. The objective is the rigorous estimation of errors involved in the use of approximations based on thin shell theory.

The underlying boundary value problem is one of Neumann type for a second order elliptic operator. A systematic procedure for constructing pointwise estimates for the solution and its first derivatives is given for a general class of second-order elliptic boundary-value problems which includes the torsion problem as a special case.

The method used here rests on the construction of “energy inequalities” and on the subsequent deduction of pointwise estimates from the energy inequalities. This method removes certain drawbacks characteristic of pointwise estimates derived in some investigations of related areas.

Special interest is directed towards thin shells of constant thickness. The method enables us to estimate the error involved in a stress analysis in which the exact solution is replaced by an approximate one, and thus provides us with a means of assessing the quality of approximate solutions for axisymmetric torsion of thin shells.

Finally, the results of the present study are applied to the stress analysis of a circular cylindrical shell, and the quality of stress estimates derived here and those from a previous related publication are discussed.

A mathematical and experimental investigation of microcycle spectral estimates of semiconductor flicker noise

The experimental portion of this thesis tries to estimate the density of the power spectrum of very low frequency semiconductor noise, from 10^-6.3 cps to 1. cps with a greater accuracy than that achieved in previous similar attempts: it is concluded that the spectrum is 1/f^α with α approximately 1.3 over most of the frequency range, but appearing to have a value of about 1 in the lowest decade. The noise sources are, among others, the first stage circuits of a grounded input silicon epitaxial operational amplifier. This thesis also investigates a peculiar form of stationarity which seems to distinguish flicker noise from other semiconductor noise.

In order to decrease by an order of magnitude the pernicious effects of temperature drifts, semiconductor "aging", and possible mechanical failures associated with prolonged periods of data taking, 10 independent noise sources were time-multiplexed and their spectral estimates were subsequently averaged. If the sources have similar spectra, it is demonstrated that this reduces the necessary data-taking time by a factor of 10 for a given accuracy.

In view of the measured high temperature sensitivity of the noise sources, it was necessary to combine the passive attenuation of a special-material container with active control. The noise sources were placed in a copper-epoxy container of high heat capacity and medium heat conductivity, and that container was immersed in a temperature controlled circulating ethylene-glycol bath.

Other spectra of interest, estimated from data taken concurrently with the semiconductor noise data were the spectra of the bath's controlled temperature, the semiconductor surface temperature, and the power supply voltage amplitude fluctuations. A brief description of the equipment constructed to obtain the aforementioned data is included.

The analytical portion of this work is concerned with the following questions: what is the best final spectral density estimate given 10 statistically independent ones of varying quality and magnitude? How can the Blackman and Tukey algorithm which is used for spectral estimation in this work be improved upon? How can non-equidistant sampling reduce data processing cost? Should one try to remove common trands shared by supposedly statistically independent noise sources and, if so, what are the mathematical difficulties involved? What is a physically plausible mathematical model that can account for flicker noise and what are the mathematical implications on its statistical properties? Finally, the variance of the spectral estimate obtained through the Blackman/Tukey algorithm is analyzed in greater detail; the variance is shown to diverge for α ≥ 1 in an assumed power spectrum of k/|f|^α, unless the assumed spectrum is "truncated".