The paradox of creative uncertainty in learning and teaching

In an ever-changing and globalised world there is a need for higher education to adapt and evolve its models of learning and teaching. The old industrial model has lost traction, and new patterns of creative engagement are required. These new models potentially increase relevancy and better equip students for the future. Although creativity is recognised as an attribute that can contribute much to the development of these pedagogies, and creativity is valued by universities as a graduate capability, some educators understandably struggle to translate this vision into practice. This paper reports on selected survey findings from a mixed methods research project which aimed to shed light on how creativity can be designed for in higher education learning and teaching settings. A social constructivist epistemology underpinned the research and data was gathered using survey and case study methods. Descriptive statistical methods and informed grounded theory were employed for the analysis reported here. The findings confirm that creativity is valued for its contribution to the development of students’ academic work, employment opportunities and life in general; however, tensions arise between individual educator’s creative pedagogical goals and the provision of institutional support for implementation of those objectives. Designing for creativity becomes, paradoxically, a matter of navigating and limiting complexity and uncertainty, while simultaneously designing for those same states or qualities.

Price and trade: World no tobacco day 2015

This special issue of Tobacco Control for World No Tobacco Day is focused on the theme of Price and Trade.

When the price is not right: Technology price gouging in Australia

Apple Inc. has often portrayed itself as the champion of consumers, with its advertising campaigns on “1984”, “Think Different”, and “Rip, Mix, Burn”. However, this reputation has been called into question after Apple refused to appear before the Parliament’s inquiry into IT Pricing in Australia and explain its pricing policies in Australia.

A decision support framework for prioritization of engineering asset management activities under uncertainty

Engineers and asset managers must often make decisions on how to best allocate limited resources amongst different interrelated activities, including repair, renewal, inspection, and procurement of new assets. The presence of project interdependencies and the lack of sufficient information on the true value of an activity often produce complex problems and leave the decision maker guessing about the quality and robustness of their decision. In this paper, a decision support framework for uncertain interrelated activities is presented. The framework employs a methodology for multi-criteria ranking in the presence of uncertainty, detailing the effect that uncertain valuations may have on the priority of a particular activity. The framework employs employing semi-quantitative risk measures that can be tailored to an organisation and enable a transparent and simple-to-use uncertainty specification by the decision maker. The framework is then demonstrated on a real world project set from a major Australian utility provider.

Microbial oil production from palm oil empty fruit bunch hydrolysates

This study explores the potential use of empty fruit bunch (EFB) residues from palm oil processing residues, as an alternative feedstock for microbial oil production. EFB is a readily available, lignocellulosic biomass that provides cheaper substrates for oil production in comparison to the use of pure sugars. In this study, potential oleaginous microorganisms were selected based on a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) framework which utilised Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) aided by Geometrical Analysis for Interactive Aid (GAIA). The MCA framework was used to evaluate several strains of microalgae (Chlorella protothecoides and Chlorella zofingiensis), yeasts (Cryptococcus albidus and Rhodotorula mucilaginosa) and fungi (Aspergillus oryzae and Mucor plumbeus) on glucose, xylose and glycerol. Based on the results of PROMETHEE rankings and GAIA plane, fungal strains A. oryzae and M. plumbeus and yeast strain R. mucilaginosa showed great promise for oil production from lignocellulosic hydrolysates. The study further cultivated A. oryzae, M. plumbeus and R. mucilaginosa on EFB hydrolysates for oil production. EFB was pretreated with dilute sulfuric acid, followed by enzymatic saccharification of solid residue. Hydrolysates tested in this study are detoxified liquid hydrolysates (LH) and enzymatic hydrolysate (EH).

Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Changes in lycopene and beta carotene contents in aril and oil of gac fruit during storage

Gac fruits were physically measured and stored under ambient conditions for up to 2 weeks to observe changes in carotenoid contents (lycopene and beta carotene) in its aril. Initial concentrations in the aril of lycopene were from 2.378 mg/g fresh weight (FW) to 3.728 mg/g FW and those of beta carotene were from 0.257 to 0.379 mg/g FW. Carotenoid concentrations in the aril remained stable after 1 week but sharply declined after 2 weeks of storage. Gac oil, pressed from gac aril, has similar concentrations of lycopene and beta carotene (2.436 and 2.592 mg/g, respectively). Oil was treated with 0.02% of butylated hydroxytoluene, or with a stream of nitrogen or untreated then stored in the dark for up to 15 or 19 weeks under different temperatures (5 °C, ambient, 45 and 60 °C). Lycopene and beta carotene in control gac oil degraded following the first-order kinetic model. The degradation rate of lycopene and beta carotene in the treated oil samples were lower than that in the control oil but the first-order kinetic was not always followed. However, both lycopene and beta carotene degraded quickly in gac oil with the first-order kinetic under high temperature conditions (45 and 60 °C) regardless of the treatments used. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in PCPF-1 modeling for predicting concentrations of rice herbicides

This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Estimating the parameters of stochastic volatility models using option price data

This article describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the standard square-root stochastic volatility model and a variant of the model that includes jumps in equity prices. The model is fitted to data on the S&P 500 Index and the prices of vanilla options written on the index, for the period 1990 to 2011. The method is able to estimate both the parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of the risk-neutral measure (associated with the options), including the volatility and jump risk premia. The estimation is implemented using a particle filter whose efficacy is demonstrated under simulation. The computational load of this estimation method, which previously has been prohibitive, is managed by the effective use of parallel computing using graphics processing units (GPUs). The empirical results indicate that the parameters of the models are reliably estimated and consistent with values reported in previous work. In particular, both the volatility risk premium and the jump risk premium are found to be significant.

In the Shadow of Freedom : Life on board the oil tanker

The aim of this study was to look at the freedom of ordinary people as they construct it. The scope, however, was limited to contemporary Finnish sailors and their freedom discourses. The study belongs to the field of the anthropology of religions, which is part of comparative religion. Worldview, which is one of the key concepts in comparative religion, provided the broader theoretical basis of the study. The data consisted of 92 interviews with Finnish professional seafarers conducted in 1996, 1999, 2000 and 2005, field journals that were written during two periods of fieldwork in 1996 and 1999-2000, and correspondence with some of the seafarers during 1999-2005. The analysis process incorporated new rhetoric and metaphor theory. The thesis is in three parts. The first part discusses the methodological challenges of this type of ethnography, the second an ethnography of modern Finnish shipworld focuses on work, organization, hierarchy and gender, and the third part discusses the freedom concepts of seafarers. It was found that seafarers use two kinds of freedom discourse. The first is in line with the stereotypical Jack Tar, a free-roving sailor who is not bound to land and its mundane routines, and the second views shipworld as freedom from freedom, meaning one is not responsible for one s own actions because one is not free to make a choice. It was also found that seafarers are well aware of the stereotypical images that are attached to their profession: they not only deny them, but also utilize, reflect on and construct them.

Properties Of Castor Oil Impregnated All-Polypropylene And Polypropylene-Paper Capacitors

In view of its non-toxicity, and good dielectric properties, castor oil, a polar liquid dielectric of vegetable origin is suggested as a possible alternative to PCB's for capacitor applications. In this paper the dielectric properties (including partial discharge behavior), of all-polypropylene and paper-polypropylene capacitors with castor oil as impregnant, are reported. The paper also contains results of life studies conducted under accelerated electrical and thermal stresses when they are occurring both individually and combined. The data obtained have been statistically analyzed and approximate life of the system calculated bylinear extrapolation.

Analysis Of The Dielectric Behavior Of Castor Oil Impregnated All-Paper Capacitors

Several new liquids impregnants for capacitors have been suggested as possible alternatives to PCB'S which are being replaced in view of their harmful effects.The application of castor oil, a vegetable product, has been studied in the authors laboratary with the same obejective.