An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

Coronavirus Infection and Diversity in Bats in the Australasian Region

Following the SARS outbreak, extensive surveillance was undertaken globally to detect and identify coronavirus diversity in bats. This study sought to identify the diversity and prevalence of coronaviruses in bats in the Australasian region. We identified four different genotypes of coronavirus, three of which (an alphacoronavirus and two betacoronaviruses) are potentially new species, having less than 90% nucleotide sequence identity with the most closely related described viruses. We did not detect any SARS-like betacoronaviruses, despite targeting rhinolophid bats, the putative natural host taxa. Our findings support the virus-host co-evolution hypothesis, with the detection of Miniopterus bat coronavirus HKU8 (previously reported in Miniopterus species in China, Hong Kong and Bulgaria) in Australian Miniopterus species. Similarly, we detected a novel betacoronavirus genotype from Pteropus alecto which is most closely related to Bat coronavirus HKU9 identified in other pteropodid bats in China, Kenya and the Philippines. We also detected possible cross-species transmission of bat coronaviruses, and the apparent enteric tropism of these viruses. Thus, our findings are consistent with a scenario wherein the current diversity and host specificity of coronaviruses reflects co-evolution with the occasional host shift.

Ecology, population genetics and conservation of the African violet

The ongoing rapid fragmentation of tropical forests is a major threat to global biodiversity. This is because many of the tropical forests are so-called biodiversity 'hotspots', areas that host exceptional species richness and concentrations of endemic species. Forest fragmentation has negative ecological and genetic consequences for plant survival. Proposed reasons for plant species' loss in forest fragments are, e.g., abiotic edge effects, altered species interactions, increased genetic drift, and inbreeding depression. To be able to conserve plants in forest fragments, the ecological and genetic processes that threaten the species have to be understood. That is possible only after obtaining adequate information on their biology, including taxonomy, life history, reproduction, and spatial and genetic structure of the populations. In this research, I focused on the African violet (genus Saintpaulia), a little-studied conservation flagship from the Eastern Arc Mountains and Coastal Forests hotspot of Tanzania and Kenya. The main objective of the research was to increase understanding of the life history, ecology and population genetics of Saintpaulia that is needed for the design of appropriate conservation measures. A further aim was to provide population-level insights into the difficult taxonomy of Saintpaulia. Ecological field work was conducted in a relatively little fragmented protected forest in the Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains, in northeastern Tanzania, complemented by population genetic laboratory work and ecological experiments in Helsinki, Finland. All components of the research were conducted with Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei, which forms a taxonomically controversial population complex in the study area. My results suggest that Saintpaulia has good reproductive performance in forests with low disturbance levels in the East Usambara Mountains. Another important finding was that seed production depends on sufficient pollinator service. The availability of pollinators should thus be considered in the in situ management of threatened populations. Dynamic population stage structures were observed suggesting that the studied populations are demographically viable. High mortality of seedlings and juveniles was observed during the dry season but this was compensated by ample recruitment of new seedlings after the rainy season. Reduced tree canopy closure and substrate quality are likely to exacerbate seedling and juvenile mortality, and, therefore, forest fragmentation and disturbance are serious threats to the regeneration of Saintpaulia. Restoration of sufficient shade to enhance seedling establishment is an important conservation measure in populations located in disturbed habitats. Long-term demographic monitoring, which enables the forecasting of a population s future, is also recommended in disturbed habitats. High genetic diversities were observed in the populations, which suggest that they possess the variation that is needed for evolutionary responses in a changing environment. Thus, genetic management of the studied populations does not seem necessary as long as the habitats remain favourable for Saintpaulia. The observed high levels of inbreeding in some of the populations, and the reduced fitness of the inbred progeny compared to the outbred progeny, as revealed by the hand-pollination experiment, indicate that inbreeding and inbreeding depression are potential mechanisms contributing to the extinction of Saintpaulia populations. The relatively weak genetic divergence of the three different morphotypes of Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei lend support to the hypothesis that the populations in the Usambara/lowlands region represent a segregating metapopulation (or metapopulations), where subpopulations are adapting to their particular environments. The partial genetic and phenological integrity, and the distinct trailing habit of the morphotype 'grotei' would, however, justify its placement in a taxonomic rank of its own, perhaps in a subspecific rank.

Participation in Urban Interaction Design for Civic Engagement

The future of civic engagement is characterised by both technological innovation as well as new technological user practices that are fuelled by trends towards mobile, personal devices; broadband connectivity; open data; urban interfaces; and cloud computing. These technology trends are progressing at a rapid pace, and have led global technology vendors to package and sell the “Smart City” as a centralised service delivery platform predicted to optimise and enhance cities’ key performance indicators – and generate a profitable market. The top-down deployment of these large and proprietary technology platforms have helped sectors such as energy, transport, and healthcare to increase efficiencies. However, an increasing number of scholars and commentators warn of another “IT bubble” emerging. Along with some city leaders, they argue that the top-down approach does not fit the governance dynamics and values of a liberal democracy when applied across sectors. A thorough understanding is required, of the socio-cultural nuances of how people work, live, play across different environments, and how they employ social media and mobile devices to interact with, engage in, and constitute public realms. Although the term “slacktivism” is sometimes used to denote a watered down version of civic engagement and activism that is reduced to clicking a “Like” button and signing online petitions, we believe that we are far from witnessing another Biedermeier period that saw people focus on the domestic and the non-political. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary, such as post-election violence in Kenya in 2008, the Occupy movements in New York, Hong Kong and elsewhere, the Arab Spring, Stuttgart 21, Fukushima, the Taksim Gezi Park in Istanbul, and the Vinegar Movement in Brazil in 2013. These examples of civic action shape the dynamics of governments, and in turn, call for new processes to be incorporated into governance structures. Participatory research into these new processes across the triad of people, place and technology is a significant and timely investment to foster productive, sustainable, and liveable human habitats. With this article, we want to reframe the current debates in academia and priorities in industry and government to allow citizens and civic actors to take their rightful centrepiece place in civic movements. This calls for new participatory approaches for co-inquiry and co-design. It is an evolving process with an explicit agenda to facilitate change, and we propose participatory action research (PAR) as an indispensable component in the journey to develop new governance infrastructures and practices for civic engagement. We do not limit our definition of civic technologies to tools specifically designed to simply enhance government and governance, such as renewing your car registration online or casting your vote electronically on election day. Rather, we are interested in civic media and technologies that foster citizen engagement in the widest sense, and particularly the participatory design of such civic technologies that strive to involve citizens in political debate and action as well as question conventional approaches to political issues. The rationale for this approach is an alternative to smart cities in a “perpetual tomorrow,” based on many weak and strong signals of civic actions revolving around technology seen today. It seeks to emphasise and direct attention to active citizenry over passive consumerism, human actors over human factors, culture over infrastructure, and prosperity over efficiency. First, we will have a look at some fundamental issues arising from applying simplistic smart city visions to the kind of a problem a city poses. We focus on the touch points between “the city” and its civic body, the citizens. In order to provide for meaningful civic engagement, the city must provide appropriate interfaces.

Monitoring Indigenous Tropical Montane Forests in the Taita Hills Using Airborne Digital Camera Imagery

The loss and degradation of forest cover is currently a globally recognised problem. The fragmentation of forests is further affecting the biodiversity and well-being of the ecosystems also in Kenya. This study focuses on two indigenous tropical montane forests in the Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya. The study is a part of the TAITA-project within the Department of Geography in the University of Helsinki. The study forests, Ngangao and Chawia, are studied by remote sensing and GIS methods. The main data includes black and white aerial photography from 1955 and true colour digital camera data from 2004. This data is used to produce aerial mosaics from the study areas. The land cover of these study areas is studied by visual interpretation, pixel-based supervised classification and object-oriented supervised classification. The change of the forest cover is studied with GIS methods using the visual interpretations from 1955 and 2004. Furthermore, the present state of the study forests is assessed with leaf area index and canopy closure parameters retrieved from hemispherical photographs as well as with additional, previously collected forest health monitoring data. The canopy parameters are also compared with textural parameters from digital aerial mosaics. This study concludes that the classification of forest areas by using true colour data is not an easy task although the digital aerial mosaics are proved to be very accurate. The best classifications are still achieved with visual interpretation methods as the accuracies of the pixel-based and object-oriented supervised classification methods are not satisfying. According to the change detection of the land cover in the study areas, the area of indigenous woodland in both forests has decreased in 1955 2004. However in Ngangao, the overall woodland area has grown mainly because of plantations of exotic species. In general, the land cover of both study areas is more fragmented in 2004 than in 1955. Although the forest area has decreased, forests seem to have a more optimistic future than before. This is due to the increasing appreciation of the forest areas.

Young Actors in Transnational Agoras : Multi-sited Ethnography of Cosmopolitan Micropolitical Orientations

This study examines young people s political participation in transnational meetings. Methodologically the study aims to shed light on multi-sited global ethnography. Young people are viewed here as a social age group sensitive to critical, alternative and even radical political participation. The diversity of the young actors and their actions is captured by using several different methods. What is more, the study spurs us coming from the Global North to develop social science research towards methodological cosmopolitanism and to consider our research practices from a moral cosmopolitan perspective. The research sites are the EU Presidency Youth Event (2006 Hyvinkää, Finland), the Global Young Greens Founding Conference (2007 Nairobi, Kenya), the European Social Forum (2008 Malmö, Sweden) and three World Social Forums (2006 Bamako, Mali; 2007 Nairobi Kenya and 2009 Belém, Brazil). The data consists of participant observation, documents and media articles of the meetings, interviews, photos, video, and internet data. This multidisciplinary study combines youth research, development studies, performative social science and political sociology. In this research the diverse field of youth political participation in transnational agoras is studied by using a cross-table of cosmopolitan resources (or the lack of them) and everydaymakers expert citizen dichotomy. First, the young participants of the EU Presidency youth event are studied as an example of expert citizens with cosmopolitan resources (these resources include, for example, language skills, higher education and international social network). Second, the study analyses those everyday-makers who use performative politics to demonstrate their political missions here and now. But in order to make the social movement global they need cosmopolitan resources to be able to use the social media tools and work globally. Third, the study reflects upon the difficulties of reaching those actors who lack cosmopolitan resources, either everyday-makers or expert citizens. The go-along method and the use of the interpreters are shown as ways to reach these young people s political missions. Fourth, the research underlines the importance of contact zones (i.e. spaces or situations where the aforementioned orientations and their differences temporarily disappear or weaken) for deeper democracy and for boosted dialogue between different kinds of participants. Keywords: political participation, young people, multi-sited ethnography, youth research, political sociology, development studies, performative social science

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia.

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

List of institutions of managerial relevance to the fisheries of Lake Victoria

The list provides addresses of institutions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda which are of managerial relevance to the fisheries of Lake Victoria, indicating the relevant area covered

Fisheries legislation of Lake Victoria: present legislation and new developments

This paper provides an overview of fisheries legislation in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania as far it concerns the administration of Lake Victoria's fishery. It also provides brief comment on the structure of these nations' fisheries departments and how they have evolved in recent years. The administration of Kenya's Lake Victoria fishery has changed very little since the introduction of the 1988 Fisheries Act. In Tanzania and Uganda, however, government policies of decentralization have had a profound impact on fisheries administration at a local level. This paper examines these changes and speculates about possible future management scenarios for these two countries

Results from RV Utafiti research cruises

Monthly fish surveys were made from 1997-1999 in the Kenyan waters of Lake Victoria in order to estimate the magnitude of fisheries resources. Sample sites were defined using GPS while thirty minute hauls in alternate grid squares were made. Demersal fish biomass was estimated using the swept area method, while for trawling two different trawl nets were used. Collected fish was sorted into species, measured (TL) and weighed. Smaller fish were mixed on deck and sub-samples taken. Sexual maturity stages of fish were also observed. Areas with consistency high catches were located outside major urban and riverine influence where most artisanal fishermen were concentrated. Very low catches were obtained from areas that had recently been covered by water hyacinth Eichhornia crassipes

Zooplankton-fish interactions in the littoral zone of Nyanza Gulf, Lake Victoria

Samples of zooplankton and fish were collected from six sampling points in Nyanza Gulf, Lake Victoria in Kenya from June to December 1998, using 76 mu m memo-filament mesh size strainer and an 80 mu m mesh size plankton net. Identification and enumeration were done in the laboratory. Occurrence, numerical and points methods were used in stomach anlaysis of fish. Copepoda, Rotifera and Cladocera were the major zooplankton groups identified, zooplankton such as Moina, Daphnia and Caridina nilotica were important prey items for Lates niloticus, Oreochromis niloticus and Rastrineobola argentea

Reproductive biology of Orechromis niloticus (L.) (Pisces: Cichlidae) in the Nyanza Gulf of Lake Victoria

Fish samples were collected using seine and trawl nets in Nyanza Gulf, Lake Victoria (Kenya) in order to study the reproductive and gonadal patterns of Oreochromis niloticus; samples were collected from June 1998 to February 1999. The variation in relative condition factor and monthly variation in gonad weight showed spawning took place between June and July. Most ripe fish were recovered between November and February, while a slight drop in GSI for males was noted between November and January. External factors triggering reproductive strategy are now being addressed