969 resultados para intervention modelling experiments
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Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?
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Objective: The objective of the study is to investigate the results of the newborn hearing screening program carried out in a Public Hospital in Brazil, in the first 3 years regarding: (1) the prevalence of hearing impairment; (2) the influence of the universal hearing screening program on the age at which the diagnosis of hearing loss is defined; (3) the cost effectiveness of the program; (4) the outcomes, in terms of the age in which the hearing rehabilitation started. Methods: A descriptive study of the first 3 years after starting the universal newborn hearing screening in a Public Hospital of Bauru, Sao Paulo state, Brazil. The screening method consists of a two-stage screening approach with transient otoacoustic emissions (TOAE), conducted by an audiologist. If the outcome in the second-stage screening is REFER, the infant is submitted to diagnostic follow-up testing and intervention at the Audiology and Speech Pathology Clinic at the University of Sao Paulo, campus of Bauru. The evaluation of the costs of the universal newborn hearing screening program per each screened newborn (around 4000/year) was done based on a proposal by the National Center for Hearing Assessment and Management, of the Utah State University, United States of America. Results: 11,466 newborns were submitted to hearing screening, corresponding to 90.52% of the living newborns. The prevalence of sensorineural hearing loss was 0.96:1000. Of the 11 children with sensorineural hearing loss, eight children received hearing aids and five started the therapeutic process before the age of 1. Currently, four children between the ages of 11 months and 2 years old were submitted to cochlear implant surgery. The cost of hearing screening was US$7.00 and the annual cost of the universal newborn hearing screening program was US$26,940.47. Conclusion: The hospital-based universal newborn hearing screening carried out through the Brazilian National Health System is viable, with promising results. However, in a country such as Brazil, which presents large socio-economic differences, the same type of analyses should be performed in several regions, so as to take into account specific aspects, to implement the newborn hearing screening along with the Public System. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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OBJECTIVES We developed a prognostic strategy for quantifying the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in survivors of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND Strategies for quantifying long-term risk of CHD events have generally been confined to primary prevention settings. The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study, which demonstrated that pravastatin reduces CHD events in ACS survivors with a broad range of cholesterol levels, enabled assessment of long-term prognosis in a secondary prevention setting. METHODS Based on outcomes in 8,557 patients in the LIPID study, a multivariate risk factor model was developed for prediction of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Prognostic indexes were developed based on the model, and low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups were defined by categorizing the prognostic indexes. RESULTS In addition to pravastatin treatment, the independently significant risk factors included: total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, gender, smoking status, qualifying ACS, prior coronary revascularization, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and prior stroke. Pravastatin reduced coronary event rates in each risk level, and the relative risk reduction did not vary significantly between risk levels. The predicted five-year coronary event rates ranged from 5% to 19% for those assigned pravastatin and from 6.4% to 23.6% fur those assigned placebo. CONCLUSIONS Long-term prognosis of ACS survivors varied substantially according to conventional risk factor profile. Pravastatin reduced coronary risk within all risk levels; however, absolute risk remained high in treated patients with unfavorable profiles. Our risk stratification strategy enables identification of ACS survivors who remain at very high risk despite statin therapy. CT Am Coil Cardiol 2001;38:56-63) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.
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Pulmonary vascular remodeling is an important pathological feature of pulmonary hypertension, leading to increased pulmonary vascular resistance and reduced compliance. It involves thickening of all three layers of the blood vessel wall (due to hypertrophy and/or hyperplasia of the predominant cell type within each layer), as well as extracellular matrix deposition. Neomuscularisation of non-muscular arteries and formation of plexiform and neointimal lesions also occur. Stimuli responsible for remodeling involve transmural pressure, stretch, shear stress, hypoxia, various mediators [angiotensin II, endothelin (ET)-1, 5-hydroxytryptamine, growth factors, and inflammatory cytokines], increased serine elastase activity, and tenascin-C. In addition, there are reductions in the endothelium-derived antimitogenic substances, nitric oxide, and prostacyclin. Intracellular signalling mechanisms involved in pulmonary vascular remodeling include elevations in intracellular Ca2+ and activation of the phosphatidylinositol pathway, protein kinase C, and mitogen-activated protein kinase. In animal models of pulmonary hypertension, various drugs have been shown to attenuate pulmonary vascular remodeling. These include angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor antagonists, ET receptor antagonists, ET-converting enzyme inhibitors, nitric oxide, phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors, prostacyclin, Ca2+-channel antagonists, heparin, and serine elastase inhibitors. Inhibition of remodeling is generally accompanied by reductions in pulmonary artery pressure. The efficacy of some of the drugs varies, depending on the animal model of the disease. In view of the complexity of the remodeling process and the diverse aetiology of pulmonary hypertension in humans, it is to be anticipated that successful anti-remodeling therapy in the clinic will require a range of different drug options. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
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In this work, we present a systematic approach to the representation of modelling assumptions. Modelling assumptions form the fundamental basis for the mathematical description of a process system. These assumptions can be translated into either additional mathematical relationships or constraints between model variables, equations, balance volumes or parameters. In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The smallest indivisible syntactical element, the so called assumption atom has been identified as a triplet. With this syntax a modelling assumption can be described as an elementary assumption, i.e. an assumption consisting of only an assumption atom or a composite assumption consisting of a conjunction of elementary assumptions. The above syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and necessary conditions for checking them are given. These transformations can be used in several ways and their implications can be analysed by formal methods. The modelling assumptions define model hierarchies. That is, a series of model families each belonging to a particular equivalence class. These model equivalence classes can be related to primal assumptions regarding the definition of mass, energy and momentum balance volumes and to secondary and tiertinary assumptions regarding the presence or absence and the form of mechanisms within the system. Within equivalence classes, there are many model members, these being related to algebraic model transformations for the particular model. We show how these model hierarchies are driven by the underlying assumption structure and indicate some implications on system dynamics and complexity issues. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is classically characterised by ovarian dysfunction (oligomenorrhoea, anovulation and infertility), androgen excess (hirsutism and acne), obesity, and morphological abnormalities of the ovaries (cystic enlargement and stromal expansion). More, recently, insulin resistance has been found to be common in PCOS, along with an increased prevalence of other features of the metabolic syndrome, namely glucose intolerance, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hyperlipidaemia. Hyperinsulinaemia is likely to contribute to the disordered ovarian function and androgen excess of PCOS. Reducing insulin resistance by lifestyle modifications such as diet and exercise improves endocrine and menstrual function in PCOS. These lifestyle modifications are the best initial means of improving insulin resistance. Metformin, an oral hypoglycaemic agent that increases insulin sensitivity has been shown to reduce serum concentrations of insulin and androgens, to reduce hirsutism, and to improve ovulation rates. The effect of metformin alone on fertility rates is-unknown. Some studies suggest that metformin will reduce total body weight to a small extent, but with a predominant effect on visceral adipose reduction. The effects of metformin on lipid abnormalities, hypertension or premature vascular disease are unknown, but the relative safety, moderate cost, and efficacy in reducing insulin resistance suggest that metformin may prove to be of benefit in combating these components of the metabolic syndrome in PCOS. Further properly planned randomised controlled trials are required.
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A combination of modelling and analysis techniques was used to design a six component force balance. The balance was designed specifically for the measurement of impulsive aerodynamic forces and moments characteristic of hypervelocity shock tunnel testing using the stress wave force measurement technique. Aerodynamic modelling was used to estimate the magnitude and distribution of forces and finite element modelling to determine the mechanical response of proposed balance designs. Simulation of balance performance was based on aerodynamic loads and mechanical responses using convolution techniques. Deconvolution was then used to assess balance performance and to guide further design modifications leading to the final balance design. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Modelling and simulation studies were carried out at 26 cement clinker grinding circuits including tube mills, air separators and high pressure grinding rolls in 8 plants. The results reported earlier have shown that tube mills can be modelled as several mills in series, and the internal partition in tube mills can be modelled as a screen which must retain coarse particles in the first compartment but not impede the flow of drying air. In this work the modelling has been extended to show that the Tromp curve which describes separator (classifier) performance can be modelled in terms of d(50)(corr), by-pass, the fish hook, and the sharpness of the curve. Also the high pressure grinding rolls model developed at the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre gives satisfactory predictions using a breakage function derived from impact and compressed bed tests. Simulation studies of a full plant incorporating a tube mill, HPGR and separators showed that the models could successfully predict the performance of the another mill working under different conditions. The simulation capability can therefore be used for process optimization and design. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.