Rebuilding housing after a disaster : factors for failure

Disasters, particularly those triggered by nature are often followed by a swift humanitarian relief response to address the resultant emergencies. These efforts are then transitioned through the medium recovery stage, eventually aimed at providing a long term post-disaster reconstruction solution. Emergency humanitarian relief focuses on responding to the immediate need for restoration of basic services, medical treatment and medical supplies, food and temporary shelter, and is a short term strenuous effort. Reconstruction of permanent houses, on the other hand, is a continuous process that often requires decades of effort to return a community to normality. Whilst emergency relief is generally perceived to be very effective, post-disaster housing reconstruction projects often fail to meet their set objectives. This paper outlines and discusses factors that contribute to the failure of post-disaster housing reconstruction projects and the subsequent immediate and long term negative impacts of failure on project outcomes.

Double diffusive magneto-convection fluid flow in a strong cross magnetic field with uniform surface heat and mass flux

In this study, magnetohydrodynamic natural convection boundary layer flow of an electrically conducting and viscous incompressible fluid along a heated vertical flat plate with uniform heat and mass flux in the presence of strong cross magnetic field has been investigated. For smooth integrations the boundary layer equations are transformed in to a convenient dimensionless form by using stream function formulation as well as the free variable formulation. The nonsimilar parabolic partial differential equations are integrated numerically for Pr ≪1 that is appropriate for liquid metals against the local Hartmann parameter ξ . Further, asymptotic solutions are obtained near the leading edge using regular perturbation method for smaller values of ξ . Solutions for values of ξ ≫ 1 are also obtained by employing the matched asymptotic technique. The results obtained for small, large and all ξ regimes are examined in terms of shear stress, τw, rate of heat transfer, qw, and rate of mass transfer, mw, for important physical parameter. Attention has been given to the influence of Schmidt number, Sc, buoyancy ratio parameter, N and local Hartmann parameter, ξ on velocity, temperature and concentration distributions and noted that velocity and temperature of the fluid achieve their asymptotic profiles for Sc ≥ 10:0.

Building community resilience – learning from the 2011 floods in Southeast Queensland, Australia

The year 2010 was the wettest year on record for Queensland, Australia and the wettest year since 1974 for Southeast Queensland. The extremely heavy rain in early January 2011 fell on the catchments of heavily saturated Brisbane and Stanley Rivers systems resulting in significant runoff which rapidly produced a widespread and devastating flood event. The area of inundation was equivalent to the total land area of France and Germany combined. Over 200,000 people were affected leaving 35 people dead and 9 missing. The damage bill was estimated at over $1B and cost to the economy at over $10B with over 30,000 homes and 6,000 business flooded and 86 towns and regional centres affected. The need to disburse disaster funding in a prompt manner to the affected population was paramount to facilitate individuals getting their lives back to some normality. However, the payout of insurance claims has proved to be a major area of community anger. The ongoing impasse in payment of insurance compensation is attributed to the nature and number of claims, confusing definition of flooding and the lack or accuracy of information needed to determine individually the properties affected and legitimacy of claims. Information was not readily available at the micro-level including, extent and type of inundation, flood heights at property level and cause of damage. Events during the aftermath highlighted widespread community misconceptions concerning the technical factors associated with the flood event and the impact of such on access to legitimate compensation and assistance. Individual and community wide concerns and frustration, anger and depression, have arisen resulting from delays in the timely settlement of insurance claims. Lessons learnt during the aftermath are presented in the context of their importance as a basis for inculcating communities impacted by the flood event with resilience for the future.

Practical stability of approximating discrete-time filters with respect to model mismatch

This paper establishes practical stability results for an important range of approximate discrete-time filtering problems involving mismatch between the true system and the approximating filter model. Practical stability is established in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of bias introduced by the model approximation. Our analysis applies to a wide range of estimation problems and justifies the common practice of approximating intractable infinite dimensional nonlinear filters by simpler computationally tractable filters.

Stable strong order 1.0 schemes for solving stochastic ordinary differential equations

The Balanced method was introduced as a class of quasi-implicit methods, based upon the Euler-Maruyama scheme, for solving stiff stochastic differential equations. We extend the Balanced method to introduce a class of stable strong order 1. 0 numerical schemes for solving stochastic ordinary differential equations. We derive convergence results for this class of numerical schemes. We illustrate the asymptotic stability of this class of schemes is illustrated and is compared with contemporary schemes of strong order 1. 0. We present some evidence on parametric selection with respect to minimising the error convergence terms. Furthermore we provide a convergence result for general Balanced style schemes of higher orders.

The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

Quantile regression without the curse of unsmoothness

We consider quantile regression models and investigate the induced smoothing method for obtaining the covariance matrix of the regression parameter estimates. We show that the difference between the smoothed and unsmoothed estimating functions in quantile regression is negligible. The detailed and simple computational algorithms for calculating the asymptotic covariance are provided. Intensive simulation studies indicate that the proposed method performs very well. We also illustrate the algorithm by analyzing the rainfall–runoff data from Murray Upland, Australia.

Digital technologies and musical participation for people with intellectual disabilities

Research on the aspirations of people with intellectual disabilities documents the importance of alternative zones of inclusion where they can assert their own definitions of ability and normality. This stands in contrast to assumptions concerning technology and disability that position technology as ‘normalising’ the disabled body. This paper reports on the role of a digital music jamming tool in providing access to creative practice by people with intellectual disabilities. The tool contributed to the development of a spatio-temporal zone to enable aesthetic agency within and beyond the contexts of deinstitutionalised care. The research identifies the interactions among tools, individuals and groups that facilitated participants’ agency in shaping the form of musical practice. Further, we document the properties of emergent interaction - supported by a tool oriented to enabling music improvisation - as potentially resisting assumptions regarding normalisation.

Natural convection flow in a strong cross magnetic field with radiation

The problem of MHD natural convection boundary layer flow of an electrically conducting and optically dense gray viscous fluid along a heated vertical plate is analyzed in the presence of strong cross magnetic field with radiative heat transfer. In the analysis radiative heat flux is considered by adopting optically thick radiation limit. Attempt is made to obtain the solutions valid for liquid metals by taking Pr≪1. Boundary layer equations are transformed in to a convenient dimensionless form by using stream function formulation (SFF) and primitive variable formulation (PVF). Non-similar equations obtained from SFF are then simulated by implicit finite difference (Keller-box) method whereas parabolic partial differential equations obtained from PVF are integrated numerically by hiring direct finite difference method over the entire range of local Hartmann parameter, $xi$ . Further, asymptotic solutions are also obtained for large and small values of local Hartmann parameter $xi$ . A favorable agreement is found between the results for small, large and all values of $xi$ . Numerical results are also demonstrated graphically by showing the effect of various physical parameters on shear stress, rate of heat transfer, velocity and temperature.

Exponential asymptotics of free surface flow due to a line source

The steady problem of free surface flow due to a submerged line source is revisited for the case in which the fluid depth is finite and there is a stagnation point on the free surface directly above the source. Both the strength of the source and the fluid speed in the far field are measured by a dimensionless parameter, the Froude number. By applying techniques in exponential asymptotics, it is shown that there is a train of periodic waves on the surface of the fluid with an amplitude which is exponentially small in the limit that the Froude number vanishes. This study clarifies that periodic waves do form for flows due to a source, contrary to a suggestion by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006, J. Fluid Mech., 567, 299--326). The exponentially small nature of the waves means they appear beyond all orders of the original power series expansion; this result explains why attempts at describing these flows using a finite number of terms in an algebraic power series incorrectly predict a flat free surface in the far field.

Bubble extinction in Hele-Shaw flow with surface tension and kinetic undercooling regularisation

We perform an analytic and numerical study of an inviscid contracting bubble in a two-dimensional Hele-Shaw cell, where the effects of both surface tension and kinetic undercooling on the moving bubble boundary are not neglected. In contrast to expanding bubbles, in which both boundary effects regularise the ill-posedness arising from the viscous (Saffman-Taylor) instability, we show that in contracting bubbles the two boundary effects are in competition, with surface tension stabilising the boundary, and kinetic undercooling destabilising it. This competition leads to interesting bifurcation behaviour in the asymptotic shape of the bubble in the limit it approaches extinction. In this limit, the boundary may tend to become either circular, or approach a line or "slit" of zero thickness, depending on the initial condition and the value of a nondimensional surface tension parameter. We show that over a critical range of surface tension values, both these asymptotic shapes are stable. In this regime there exists a third, unstable branch of limiting self-similar bubble shapes, with an asymptotic aspect ratio (dependent on the surface tension) between zero and one. We support our asymptotic analysis with a numerical scheme that utilises the applicability of complex variable theory to Hele-Shaw flow.

An accurate numerical scheme for the contraction of a bubble in a Hele-Shaw cell

We report on an accurate numerical scheme for the evolution of an inviscid bubble in radial Hele-Shaw flow, where the nonlinear boundary effects of surface tension and kinetic undercooling are included on the bubble-fluid interface. As well as demonstrating the onset of the Saffman-Taylor instability for growing bubbles, the numerical method is used to show the effect of the boundary conditions on the separation (pinch-off) of a contracting bubble into multiple bubbles, and the existence of multiple possible asymptotic bubble shapes in the extinction limit. The numerical scheme also allows for the accurate computation of bubbles which pinch off very close to the theoretical extinction time, raising the possibility of computing solutions for the evolution of bubbles with non-generic extinction behaviour.

Mathematical modelling of controlled drug release from polymer micro-spheres : incorporating the effects of swelling, diffusion and dissolution via moving boundary problems

Controlled drug delivery is a key topic in modern pharmacotherapy, where controlled drug delivery devices are required to prolong the period of release, maintain a constant release rate, or release the drug with a predetermined release profile. In the pharmaceutical industry, the development process of a controlled drug delivery device may be facilitated enormously by the mathematical modelling of drug release mechanisms, directly decreasing the number of necessary experiments. Such mathematical modelling is difficult because several mechanisms are involved during the drug release process. The main drug release mechanisms of a controlled release device are based on the device’s physiochemical properties, and include diffusion, swelling and erosion. In this thesis, four controlled drug delivery models are investigated. These four models selectively involve the solvent penetration into the polymeric device, the swelling of the polymer, the polymer erosion and the drug diffusion out of the device but all share two common key features. The first is that the solvent penetration into the polymer causes the transition of the polymer from a glassy state into a rubbery state. The interface between the two states of the polymer is modelled as a moving boundary and the speed of this interface is governed by a kinetic law. The second feature is that drug diffusion only happens in the rubbery region of the polymer, with a nonlinear diffusion coefficient which is dependent on the concentration of solvent. These models are analysed by using both formal asymptotics and numerical computation, where front-fixing methods and the method of lines with finite difference approximations are used to solve these models numerically. This numerical scheme is conservative, accurate and easily implemented to the moving boundary problems and is thoroughly explained in Section 3.2. From the small time asymptotic analysis in Sections 5.3.1, 6.3.1 and 7.2.1, these models exhibit the non-Fickian behaviour referred to as Case II diffusion, and an initial constant rate of drug release which is appealing to the pharmaceutical industry because this indicates zeroorder release. The numerical results of the models qualitatively confirms the experimental behaviour identified in the literature. The knowledge obtained from investigating these models can help to develop more complex multi-layered drug delivery devices in order to achieve sophisticated drug release profiles. A multi-layer matrix tablet, which consists of a number of polymer layers designed to provide sustainable and constant drug release or bimodal drug release, is also discussed in this research. The moving boundary problem describing the solvent penetration into the polymer also arises in melting and freezing problems which have been modelled as the classical onephase Stefan problem. The classical one-phase Stefan problem has unrealistic singularities existed in the problem at the complete melting time. Hence we investigate the effect of including the kinetic undercooling to the melting problem and this problem is called the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling. Interestingly we discover the unrealistic singularities existed in the classical one-phase Stefan problem at the complete melting time are regularised and also find out the small time behaviour of the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling is different to the classical one-phase Stefan problem from the small time asymptotic analysis in Section 3.3. In the case of melting very small particles, it is known that surface tension effects are important. The effect of including the surface tension to the melting problem for nanoparticles (no kinetic undercooling) has been investigated in the past, however the one-phase Stefan problem with surface tension exhibits finite-time blow-up. Therefore we investigate the effect of including both the surface tension and kinetic undercooling to the melting problem for nanoparticles and find out the the solution continues to exist until complete melting. The investigation of including kinetic undercooling and surface tension to the melting problems reveals more insight into the regularisations of unphysical singularities in the classical one-phase Stefan problem. This investigation gives a better understanding of melting a particle, and contributes to the current body of knowledge related to melting and freezing due to heat conduction.

Measuring mechanical properties of tendon in vivo

Introduction: Understanding the mechanical properties of tendon is an important step to guiding the process of improving athletic performance, predicting injury and treating tendinopathies. The speed of sound in a medium is governed by the bulk modulus and density for fluids and isotropic materials. However, for tendon,which is a structural composite of fluid and collagen, there is some anisotropy requiring an adjustment for Poisson’s ratio. In this paper, these relationships are explored and modelled using data collected, in vivo, on human Achilles tendon. Estimates for elastic modulus and hysteresis based on speed of sound data are then compared against published values from in vitro mechanical tests. Methods: Measurements using clinical ultrasound imaging, inverse dynamics and acoustic transmission techniques were used to determine dimensions, loading conditions and longitudinal speed of sound for the Achilles tendon during a series of isometric plantar flexion exercises against body weight. Upper and lower bounds for speed of sound versus tensile stress in the tendon were then modelled and estimates derived for elastic modulus and hysteresis. Results: Axial speed of sound varied between 1850 to 2090 m.s−1 with a non-linear, asymptotic dependency on the level of tensile stress in the tendon 5–35 MPa. Estimates derived for the elastic modulus ranged between 1–2 GPa. Hysteresis derived from models of the stress-strain relationship, ranged from 3–11%. These values agree closely with those previously reported from direct measurements obtained via in vitro mechanical tensile tests on major weight bearing tendons. Discussion: There is sufficiently good agreement between these indirect (speed of sound derived) and direct (mechanical tensile test derived) measures of tendon mechanical properties to validate the use of this non-invasive acoustic transmission technique. This non-invasive method is suitable for monitoring changes in tendon properties as predictors of athletic performance, injury or therapeutic progression.

How long does it take for aquifer recharge or aquifer discharge processes to reach steady state?

Groundwater flow models are usually characterized as being either transient flow models or steady state flow models. Given that steady state groundwater flow conditions arise as a long time asymptotic limit of a particular transient response, it is natural for us to seek a finite estimate of the amount of time required for a particular transient flow problem to effectively reach steady state. Here, we introduce the concept of mean action time (MAT) to address a fundamental question: How long does it take for a groundwater recharge process or discharge processes to effectively reach steady state? This concept relies on identifying a cumulative distribution function, $F(t;x)$, which varies from $F(0;x)=0$ to $F(t;x) \to \infty$ as $t\to \infty$, thereby providing us with a measurement of the progress of the system towards steady state. The MAT corresponds to the mean of the associated probability density function $f(t;x) = \dfrac{dF}{dt}$, and we demonstrate that this framework provides useful analytical insight by explicitly showing how the MAT depends on the parameters in the model and the geometry of the problem. Additional theoretical results relating to the variance of $f(t;x)$, known as the variance of action time (VAT), are also presented. To test our theoretical predictions we include measurements from a laboratory–scale experiment describing flow through a homogeneous porous medium. The laboratory data confirms that the theoretical MAT predictions are in good agreement with measurements from the physical model.