469 resultados para Winner’s Curse
Resumo:
A presente pesquisa busca avaliar exegeticamente o texto que se encontra na Bíblia, especificamente no livro de Números capítulos 22-24 que relata sobre um personagem conhecido como Balaão. A pesquisa tem também como objeto o estudo sobre o panteão de divindades relatado no mesmo texto, assim como também o estudo dos textos descobertos em Deir Alla, na Jordânia, que apresentam um personagem designado como Balaão, possivelmente o mesmo personagem de Nm 22-24. A motivação que levou ao desenvolvimento dessa pesquisa foi o fato de se ter deparado com os conceitos dos diversos nomes divinos exibidos no texto, além da questão do profetismo fora de Israel, assim como as possibilidades hermenêuticas que se abrem para a leitura desse texto bíblico. O conceito geral sempre foi o de que Israel era a única nação onde existiam “verdadeiros” profetas e uma adoração a um único Deus, o “monoteísmo”. O que despertou interesse foi perceber, especialmente por meio da leitura dos livros bíblicos, que o profetismo não se restringiu somente a Israel. Ele antecede à formação do antigo Israel e já existia no âmbito das terras do antigo Oriente Médio, e que Israel ainda demorou muito tempo para ser monoteísta. Quem é esse Balaão, filho de Beor? Estudaremos sobre sua pessoa e sua missão. Examinaremos os textos de Deir Alla sobre Balaão e sua natureza de personagem mediador entre o divino e o humano. Esse personagem é apresentado como um grande profeta e que era famoso como intérprete de presságios divinos. Analisaremos a importante questão sobre o panteão de deuses que são apresentados na narrativa de Balaão nomeados como: El, Elyon Elohim e Shaddai, além de Yahweh. Entendemos, a princípio, que o texto possui uma conexão com a sociedade na qual foi criado e usando da metodologia exegética, faremos uma análise da narrativa em questão, buscando compreender o sentido do texto, dentro de seu cenário histórico e social. Cenário este, que nos apresentou esse profeta, não israelita, que profere bênçãos dos deuses sobre Israel e que, além disso, pronuncia maldições sobre os inimigos desse mesmo Israel. Percebemos que, parte do texto pesquisado é apresentado sob a ótica de Israel sobre as outras nações. A pesquisa defende, portanto, que o texto de Nm 22-24, além de nos apresentar um profeta fora de Israel igual aos profetas da Bíblia, defende que, o panteão de divindades também era adorado por Israel e que tais nomes são epítetos de uma mesma divindade, no caso YHWH. Defende, também, um delineamento de um projeto de domínio político e militar de Israel sobre as nações circunvizinhas.
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We have studied the HA1 domain of 254 human influenza A(H3N2) virus genes for clues that might help identify characteristics of hemagglutinins (HAs) of circulating strains that are predictive of that strain’s epidemic potential. Our preliminary findings include the following. (i) The most parsimonious tree found requires 1,260 substitutions of which 712 are silent and 548 are replacement substitutions. (ii) The HA1 portion of the HA gene is evolving at a rate of 5.7 nucleotide substitutions/year or 5.7 × 10−3 substitutions/site per year. (iii) The replacement substitutions are distributed randomly across the three positions of the codon when allowance is made for the number of ways each codon can change the encoded amino acid. (iv) The replacement substitutions are not distributed randomly over the branches of the tree, there being 2.2 times more changes per tip branch than for non-tip branches. This result is independent of how the virus was amplified (egg grown or kidney cell grown) prior to sequencing or if sequencing was carried out directly on the original clinical specimen by PCR. (v) These excess changes on the tip branches are probably the result of a bias in the choice of strains to sequence and the detection of deleterious mutations that had not yet been removed by negative selection. (vi) There are six hypervariable codons accumulating replacement substitutions at an average rate that is 7.2 times that of the other varied codons. (vii) The number of variable codons in the trunk branches (the winners of the competitive race against the immune system) is 47 ± 5, significantly fewer than in the twigs (90 ± 7), which in turn is significantly fewer variable codons than in tip branches (175 ± 8). (viii) A minimum of one of every 12 branches has nodes at opposite ends representing viruses that reside on different continents. This is, however, no more than would be expected if one were to randomly reassign the continent of origin of the isolates. (ix) Of 99 codons with at least four mutations, 31 have ratios of non-silent to silent changes with probabilities less than 0.05 of occurring by chance, and 14 of those have probabilities <0.005. These observations strongly support positive Darwinian selection. We suggest that the small number of variable positions along the successful trunk lineage, together with knowledge of the codons that have shown positive selection, may provide clues that permit an improved prediction of which strains will cause epidemics and therefore should be used for vaccine production.
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In this paper, we propose a novel filter for feature selection. Such filter relies on the estimation of the mutual information between features and classes. We bypass the estimation of the probability density function with the aid of the entropic-graphs approximation of Rényi entropy, and the subsequent approximation of the Shannon one. The complexity of such bypassing process does not depend on the number of dimensions but on the number of patterns/samples, and thus the curse of dimensionality is circumvented. We show that it is then possible to outperform a greedy algorithm based on the maximal relevance and minimal redundancy criterion. We successfully test our method both in the contexts of image classification and microarray data classification.
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Examining a team’s performance from a physical point of view their momentum might indicate unexpected turning points in defeat or success. Physicists describe this value as to require some effort to be started, but also that it is relatively easy to keep it going once a sufficient level is reached (Reed and Hughes, 2006). Unlike football, rugby, handball and many more sports, a regular volleyball match is not limited by time but by points that need to be gathered. Every minute more than one point is won by either one team or the other. That means a series of successive points enlarges the gap between the teams making it more and more difficult to catch up with the leading one. This concept of gathering momentum, or the reverse in a performance, can give the coaches, athletes and sports scientists further insights into winning and losing performances. Momentum investigations also contain dependencies between performances or questions if future performances are reliant upon past streaks. Squash and volleyball share the characteristic of being played up to a certain amount of points. Squash was examined according to the momentum of players by Hughes et al. (2006). The initial aim was to expand normative profiles of elite squash players using momentum graphs of winners and errors to explore ‘turning points’ in a performance. Dynamic systems theory has enabled the definition of perturbations in sports exhibiting rhythms (Hughes et al., 2000; McGarry et al., 2002; Murray et al., 2008), and how players and teams cause these disruptions of rhythm can inform on the way they play, these techniques also contribute to profiling methods. Together with the analysis of one’s own performance it is essential to have an understanding of your oppositions’ tactical strengths and weaknesses. By modelling the oppositions’ performance it is possible to predict certain outcomes and patterns, and therefore intervene or change tactics before the critical incident occurs. The modelling of competitive sport is an informative analytic technique as it directs the attention of the modeller to the critical aspects of data that delineate successful performance (McGarry & Franks, 1996). Using tactical performance profiles to pull out and visualise these critical aspects of performance, players can build justified and sophisticated tactical plans. The area is discussed and reviewed, critically appraising the research completed in this element of Performance Analysis.
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Over 90% of the external relations budget of the EU is processed through its external financial instruments. With the Lisbon Treaty and the creation of the new European External Action Service (EEAS), the institutional architecture of these instruments was significantly reformed. This contribution analyses strategic programming both pre- and post-Lisbon, identifies ‘winners’ and ‘losers’, and examines the potential of the new provisions to increase the coherence of EU external action. The examination shows that the instruments can be categorised into three groupings: ‘the big three’ comprising the bulk of funding characterised by joint programming and responsibilities; the ‘Commission-only’ instruments where all powers remain with the Commission; and the ‘EEAS-led rest’ in which the High Representative and the EEAS play a strong role but only have limited financial resources available. The new system calls for strong coordination of all involved actors in order to make it work. Findings of a case study on the Instrument for Stability reveal, however, that so far the establishment of the EEAS has not made a substantial impact on strategic programming in its first two years.
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The political balance in Sweden was upset in this year’s elections to the European Parliament (EP). The far-right ‘Sweden Democrats’ almost tripled their vote-share and the Greens gained enough votes to become the second-largest Swedish party in the EP after the Social Democrats. Support for the current government incumbents, the Moderates, fell beyond expectation. The party will not recover in time for the national elections in September, whereas both the Greens and the Sweden Democrats are likely to repeat their EP election success. Since the Sweden Democrats are unlikely to form part of the coalition government – the election-winners will be the Greens and Social Democrats – Sweden’s political landscape is set to undergo a shift to the left.
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The European Council meeting on 7 and 8 February 2013 attracted an unusual level of attention from media and citizens. For a couple of days, Europe played a more important role in national politics and news. Sensation-frenzied media and excited politicians spouted notions of ‘a battle’, ‘winners’, ‘losers’ or ‘striking deals’, as if Europe had gone back to the time when its military powers still conflicted. After more than 24 hours of intense negotiations, the respective Member States leaders left Brussels with ‘good news’ for their citizens. However, those with more Euro-federalist feelings were left with a sense of non-accomplishment and missed opportunities, not only because the EU budget for the first time in history was set for a net decrease, but also because the European Council’s conclusions did not contain any ground-breaking changes to this system. Nevertheless, the European Parliament (EP) immediately reminded Europe about its role and outlined its conditions for further negotiations. Thus, the supporters of a modern and stronger EU budget still see a chance in the consent procedure and hope to shift the focus of the debate from the juste retour spirit to the consideration of the European common good. Is there still a chance for such a shift? What issues are at stake?
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The single market is often perceived as the panacea for Europe’s economic troubles. It is believed that completing the single market would boost welfare, stimulate growth and increase European competitiveness. • However, identifying and quantifying the channels through which market integration is expected to engender growth is methodologically complex. Although the overwhelming prediction from the literature is for single market integration to generate positive and significant aggregate effects, we conclude that the impact so far has fallen short of initial expectations, because: (1) Barriers continue to prevail in the EU, preventing the exploitation of the potential benefits of full market integration (2) ‘Complementary policies’ to support the single market were not, or were insufficiently, put in place (3) The single market project has not sufficiently been framed as a key part of the process of creative destruction that Europe needs to embrace to successfully modernise its economy. • That single market integration generates positive and significant aggregate effects does not imply that its effects are positive and significant for every sector. There is therefore an important role for European Union and national distributional policies to ensure that losers are sufficiently compensated by the winners, and to overcome political resistance to completing the single market.
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Group living animals must be able to express different behavior profiles depending on their social status. Therefore, the same genotype may translate into different behavioral phenotypes through socially driven differential gene expression. However, how social information is translated into a neurogenomic response and what are the specific cues in a social interaction that signal a change in social status are questions that have remained unanswered. Here, we show for the first time, to our knowledge, that the switch between status-specific neurogenomic states relies on the assessment of fight outcome rather than just on self- or opponent-only assessment of fighting ability. For this purpose, we manipulated the perception of fight outcome in male zebrafish and measured its impact on the brain transcriptome using a zebrafish whole genome gene chip. Males fought either a real opponent, and a winner and a loser were identified, or their own image on a mirror, in which case, despite expressing aggressive behavior, males did not experience either a victory or a defeat. Massive changes in the brain transcriptome were observed in real opponent fighters, with losers displaying both a higher number of differentially expressed genes and of coexpressed gene modules than winners. In contrast, mirror fighters expressed a neurogenomic state similar to that of noninteracting fish. The genes that responded to fight outcome included immediate early genes and genes involved in neuroplasticity and epigenetic modifications. These results indicate that, even in cognitively simple organisms such as zebrafish, neurogenomic responses underlying changes in social status rely on mutual assessment of fighting ability.
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The 2015 election to the Swiss Parliament marks a return to an already observed trend that was only interrupted in 2011: a shift to the right and an increase in polarization. The vote share of the nationalist-conservative Swiss People's Party (SVP) has now reached a historical height of 29.4% (+2.8). This note discusses why cantons matter in the Swiss national elections, and to what degree elections have become nationalized. Institutionally, the 26 cantons serve as electoral districts. This leads to a highly disproportional electoral system and has magnified the minor vote shifts to a slightly more pronounced shift in seats, with the right now holding a tiny majority of 101 of 200 seats in the first chamber. The two winners, the SVP and the Liberals, also had most campaign funds at their disposal. They were able to guide an extensive nationwide campaign in which they advocated their core issues instead of candidates. Other parties only advertised at the cantonal level.
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The knowledge of the current state of the economy is crucial for policy makers, economists and analysts. However, a key economic variable, the gross domestic product (GDP), are typically colected on a quartely basis and released with substancial delays by the national statistical agencies. The first aim of this paper is to use a dynamic factor model to forecast the current russian GDP, using a set of timely monthly information. This approach can cope with the typical data flow problems of non-synchronous releases, mixed frequency and the curse of dimensionality. Given that Russian economy is largely dependent on the commodity market, our second motivation relates to study the effects of innovations in the russian macroeconomic fundamentals on commodity price predictability. We identify these innovations through a news index which summarizes deviations of offical data releases from the expectations generated by the DFM and perform a forecasting exercise comparing the performance of different models.
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Anhang. Verzeichniss der Curse aller Bahnen, welche in den ofiziellen Curszetteln zur Notirung kasen.
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Behind the times -- His first operation -- A straggler of '15 -- The third generation -- A false start -- The curse of Eve -- Sweethearts -- A physiologist's wife -- The case of Lady Sannox -- A question of diplomacy -- A medical document -- Lot no. 249 -- The Los Amigos fiasco -- The doctors of Hoyland -- The surgeon talks.
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Includes lists of the winners of the Conservatoire's competitions, 1803-1858 (p. 130-216).
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Includes a directory of all winners of the Governor's Home Town Award and states in brief the improvements that each town made to win the Award. Also includes a list of judges.