Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

Experimental Characterization and Control of Miniaturized Pneumatic Artificial Muscle

Robotic surgical tools used in minimally invasive surgeries (MIS) require miniaturized and reliable actuators for precise positioning and control of the end-effector. Miniature pneumatic artificial muscles (MPAMs) are a good choice due to their inert nature, high force to weight ratio, and fast actuation. In this paper, we present the development of miniaturized braided pneumatic muscles with an outer diameter of similar to 1.2 mm, a high contraction ratio of about 18%, and capable of providing a pull force in excess of 4 N at a supply pressure of 0.8 MPa. We present the details of the developed experimental setup, experimental data on contraction and force as a function of applied pressure, and characterization of the MPAM. We also present a simple kinematics and experimental data based model of the braided pneumatic muscle and show that the model predicts contraction in length to within 20% of the measured value. Finally, a robust controller for the MPAMs is developed and validated with experiments and it is shown that the MPAMs have a time constant of similar to 10 ms thereby making them suitable for actuating endoscopic and robotic surgical tools.

Effects of Interface Treatment on the Fatigue Behavior of Shape Memory Alloy Reinforced Polymer Composites

Interfacial properties of Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) reinforced polymer matrix composites can be enhanced by improving the interfacial bonding. This paper focuses on studying the interfacial stresses developed in the SMA-epoxy interface due to various laser shot penning conditions. Fiber-pull test-setup is designed to understand the role of mechanical bias stress cycling and thermal actuation cycling. Phase transformation is tracked over mechanical and thermal fatigue cycles. A micromechanics based model developed earlier based on shear lag in SMA and energy based consistent homogenization is extended here to incorporate the stress-temperature phase diagram parameters for modeling fatigue.

Near-Optimal Detection Thresholds for Bayesian Spectrum Sensing Under Fading

This paper considers the problem of energy-based, Bayesian spectrum sensing in cognitive radios under various fading environments. Under the well-known central limit theorem based model for energy detection, we derive analytically tractable expressions for near-optimal detection thresholds that minimize the probability of error under lognormal, Nakagami-m, and Weibull fading. For the Suzuki fading case, a generalized gamma approximation is provided, which saves on the computation of an integral. In each case, the accuracy of the theoretical expressions as compared to the optimal thresholds are illustrated through simulations.

Maximum Spreading of Liquid Drops Impacting on Groove-Textured Surfaces: Effect of Surface Texture

Maximum, spreading of liquid drops impacting on solid surfaces textured with unidirectional parallel grooves is studied for drop Weber number in the range 1-100 focusing on the role of texture geometry and wettability. The maximum spread factor of impacting drops measured perpendicular to grooves; beta(m,perpendicular to) is seen to be less than, that:measured parallel to grooves, beta(m,perpendicular to).The difference between beta(m,perpendicular to), and beta(m,parallel to) increases with drop impact velocity. This deviation of beta(m,perpendicular to) from beta(m,parallel to) is analyzed by considering the possible mechanisms, correspond, ing to experimental observations (1) impregnation of drop into the grooves, (2) convex shape of liquid vapor interface near contact line at maximum spreading, and (3) contact line pinning of spreading drop at the pillar edges by incorporating them into an energy conservation-based model. The analysis reveals that contact line pinning offers a physically meaningful justification of the observed: deviation of beta(m,perpendicular to) from beta(m,parallel to) compared to other possible candidates. A unified model, incorporating all the above-mentioned mechanisms, is formulated, which predicts beta(m,perpendicular to) on several groove-textured surfaces made of intrinsically hydrophilic and hydrophobic materials with an average error of 8.3%. The effect of groove-texture geometrical parameters,on maximum drop spreading is explained using this unified model. A special case of the unified model, with contact line pinning, absent, predicts beta(m,parallel to) with an average error of 6.3%.

Automatic transcription of conversational telephone speech

This paper discusses the Cambridge University HTK (CU-HTK) system for the automatic transcription of conversational telephone speech. A detailed discussion of the most important techniques in front-end processing, acoustic modeling and model training, language and pronunciation modeling are presented. These include the use of conversation side based cepstral normalization, vocal tract length normalization, heteroscedastic linear discriminant analysis for feature projection, minimum phone error training and speaker adaptive training, lattice-based model adaptation, confusion network based decoding and confidence score estimation, pronunciation selection, language model interpolation, and class based language models. The transcription system developed for participation in the 2002 NIST Rich Transcription evaluations of English conversational telephone speech data is presented in detail. In this evaluation the CU-HTK system gave an overall word error rate of 23.9%, which was the best performance by a statistically significant margin. Further details on the derivation of faster systems with moderate performance degradation are discussed in the context of the 2002 CU-HTK 10 × RT conversational speech transcription system. © 2005 IEEE.

Damage development in an armor ceramic under quasi-static indentation

The objective of the present study is to assess the capabilities of a recently developed mechanism-based model for inelastic deformation and damage in structural ceramics. In addition to conventional lattice plasticity, the model accounts for microcrack growth and coalescence as well as granular flow following comminution. The assessment is made through a coupled experimental/computational study of the indentation response of a commercial armor ceramic. The experiments include examinations of subsurface damage zones along with measurements of residual surface profiles and residual near-surface stresses. Extensive finite element computations are conducted in parallel. Comparisons between experiment and simulation indicate that the most discriminating metric in the assessment is the spatial extent of subsurface damage following indentation. Residual stresses provide additional validation. In contrast, surface profiles of indents are dictated largely by lattice plasticity and thus provide minimal additional insight into the inelastic deformation resulting from microcracking or granular flow. A satisfactory level of correlation is obtained using property values that are either measured directly or estimated from physically based arguments, without undue reliance on adjustable (nonphysical) parameters. © 2011 The American Ceramic Society.

Mechanics of metallic foams: A fractal approach

A fractal approach was proposed to investigate the meso structures and size effect of metallic foams: For a series At foams of different relative densities, the information dimension method was applied to measure meso structures. The generalized sierpinski carpet was introduced to map the meso structures of the foam according to specific dimension. The results show that the fractal-based model can not only reveal the variation of yield strength with specimen size, but also bridge the meso structures and mechanical proper-ties of Al foams directly. Key words: metallic foams; fractal; size effect; meso structures

Modeling smart grids as complex systems through the implementation of intelligent hubs

ICINCO 2010

Knowledge modelling in aerospace design

This paper addresses the need for computer support in aerospace design. A review of current design methodologies and computer support tools is presented and the need for further support in aerospace design, particularly in the early formative stages of the design process, is discussed. A parameter-based model of design, founded on the assumption that a design process can be constructed from a predefined set of tasks, is proposed for aerospace design. This is supported by knowledge of possible tasks in which the confidence in key design parameters is used as a basis for identifying, or signposting, the next task. A prototype implementation of the signposting model, for use in the design of helicopter rotor blades, is described and results from trials of the tool are presented. Further areas of research are discussed

Modelling soil erosion and transport in the Burrishoole catchment, Newport, Co. Mayo, Ireland

The Burrishoole catchment is situated in County Mayo, on the northwest coast of the Republic of Ireland. Much of the catchment is covered by blanket peat that, in many areas, has become heavily eroded in recent years. This is thought to be due, primarily, to the adverse effects of forestry and agricultural activities in the area. Such activities include ploughing, drainage, the planting and harvesting of trees, and sheep farming, all of which are potentially damaging to such a sensitive landscape if not managed carefully. This article examines the sediment yield and hydrology of the Burrishoole catchment. Flow and sediment concentrations were measured at 8-hourly intervals from 5 February 2001 to 8 November 2001 with an automatic sampler and separate flow gauge, and hourly averages were recorded between 4 July 2002 and 6 September 2002 using an automatic river monitoring system [ARMS]. The authors describe the GIS-based model of soil erosion and transport that was applied to the Burrishoole catchment during this study. The results of these analyses were compared, in a qualitative manner, with the aerial photography available for the Burrishoole catchment to see whether areas that were predicted to contribute large proportions of eroded material to the drainage network corresponded with areas where peat erosion could be identified through photo-interpretation.

Contributions to the efficient use of general purpose coprocessors: kernel density estimation as case study

142 p.

Sex-change rules, stock dynamics, and the performance of spawning-per-recruit measures in protogynous stocks

Predicting and under-standing the dynamics of a population requires knowledge of vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction. However, these variables are influenced by individual behavior, and when managing exploited populations, it is now generally realized that knowledge of a species’ behavior and life history strategies is required. However, predicting and understanding a response to novel conditions—such as increased fishing-induced mortality, changes in environmental conditions, or specific management strategies—also require knowing the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce phenotypic changes and knowing whether these behaviors and life history patterns are plastic. Although a wide variety of patterns of sex change have been observed in the wild, it is not known how the specific sex-change rule and cues that induce sex change affect stock dynamics. Using an individual based model, we examined the effect of the sex-change rule on the predicted stock dynamics, the effect of mating group size, and the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit (SPR) measures in a protogynous stock. We considered four different patterns of sex change in which the probability of sex change is determined by 1) the absolute size of the individual, 2) the relative length of individuals at the mating site, 3) the frequency of smaller individuals at the mating site, and 4) expected reproductive success. All four pat-terns of sex change have distinct stock dynamics. Although each sex-change rule leads to the prediction that the stock will be sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern and may crash if too many reproductive size classes are fished, the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit measures, the fishing pattern that leads to the greatest yield, and the effect of mating group size all differ distinctly for the four sex-change rules. These results indicate that the management of individual species requires knowledge of whether sex change occurs, as well as an understanding of the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce sex change.

Effects of fishing on growth traits: a simulation analysis

Abstract—Fisheries often target individuals based on size. Size-selective fishing can create selection differentials on life-history traits and, when those traits have a genetic basis, may cause evolution. The evolution of life history traits affects potential yield and sustainability of fishing, and it is therefore an issue for fishery management. Yet fishery managers usually disregard the possibility of evolution, because little guidance is available to predict evolutionary consequences of management strategies. We attempt to provide some generic guidance. We develop an individual-based model of a population with overlapping generations and continuous reproduction. We simulate model populations under size-selective fishing to generate and quantify selection differentials on growth. The analysis comprises a variety of common life-history and fishery characteristics: variability in growth, correlation between von Bertalanffy growth parameters (K and L∞), maturity rate, natural mortality rate (M), M/K ratio, duration of spawning season, fishing mortality rate (F), maximum size limit, slope of selectivity curve, age at 50% selectivity, and duration of fishing season. We found that each characteristic affected the magnitude of selection differentials. The most vulnerable stocks were those with a short spawning or fishing season. Under almost all life-history and fishery characteristics examined, selection differentials created by realistic fishing mortality rates are considerable.

Síntese de árvores de padrões Fuzzy através de Programação Genética Cartesiana.

Esta dissertação apresenta um sistema de indução de classificadores fuzzy. Ao invés de utilizar a abordagem tradicional de sistemas fuzzy baseados em regras, foi utilizado o modelo de Árvore de Padrões Fuzzy(APF), que é um modelo hierárquico, com uma estrutura baseada em árvores que possuem como nós internos operadores lógicos fuzzy e as folhas são compostas pela associação de termos fuzzy com os atributos de entrada. O classificador foi obtido sintetizando uma árvore para cada classe, esta árvore será uma descrição lógica da classe o que permite analisar e interpretar como é feita a classificação. O método de aprendizado originalmente concebido para a APF foi substituído pela Programação Genética Cartesiana com o intuito de explorar melhor o espaço de busca. O classificador APF foi comparado com as Máquinas de Vetores de Suporte, K-Vizinhos mais próximos, florestas aleatórias e outros métodos Fuzzy-Genéticos em diversas bases de dados do UCI Machine Learning Repository e observou-se que o classificador APF apresenta resultados competitivos. Ele também foi comparado com o método de aprendizado original e obteve resultados comparáveis com árvores mais compactas e com um menor número de avaliações.