O prêmio de risco da taxa de câmbio no Brasil durante o plano real

A principal explicação sugerida pela literatura para o viés do preço futuro em relação à taxa de câmbio que prevalecerá no futuro é a existência de um prêmio de risco. Aplicamos aqui os principais modelos teóricos e técnicas econométricas para identificação e mensuração do prêmio de risco aos dados brasileiros do mercado futuro de câmbio posteriores ao Plano Real. Identifica-se um prêmio de risco que varia ao longo do tempo, o qual correlaciona-se com os fundamentos macroeconômicos da economia. A partir de 1999, coerentemente com a introdução da livre flutuação cambial, observou-se uma diminuição da importância do prêmio de risco relativamente aos erros de previsão na composição do forward discount. As técnicas empregadas permitem-nos avaliar importantes questões de política econômica, como o quanto podem cair as taxas de juros reais.

O prêmio pela maturidade na estrutura a termo das taxas de juros brasileiras

Este artigo estuda a validade da Hipótese das Expectativas (HE) racionais para o Brasil, utilizando dados diários de Julho de 1996 a Dezembro de 2002 para prazos entre 1 dia e 1 ano. (i) Os coeficientes do diferencial endimento (yield spread) estimados na equação de mudança de curto prazo da taxa de longo prazo são imprecisos e não permitem conclusão. (ii) A estimação da equação de mudança de curto prazo da taxa curta indica que o diferencial tem poder preditivo. (iii) Os coeficientes do diferencial na equação de mudança de longo prazo da taxa curta são mais precisamente estimados e não são significativamente diferentes da unidade. (iv) A previsão de expectativas racionais da mudança de longo prazo da taxa curta é altamente correlacionada com o diferencial, e (iv) o diferencial observado é mais volátil que o diferencial teórico. Os resultados dos testes rejeitam a hipótese particular coeficiente unitário, porém reconhecem o poder preditivo do diferencial observado.

A reconstrução da indústria brasileira: a conexão entre o regime macroeconômico e a política industrial

Este artigo, de cunho eminentemente analítico, mostra que no âmbito da política macroeconômica, é necessária consistência entre as políticas monetária, fiscal, cambial e salarial para viabilizar taxas de juros reais médias inferiores às taxas de retorno médias sobre o capital, taxas de câmbio reais competitivas (em torno da taxa de “equilíbrio industrial”) e taxas de salários que evoluam de acordo com o crescimento da produtividade, condições para que se assegure o crescimento econômico sobre bases sustentáveis. Já com respeito à política industrial, é preciso perseguir estratégias de diversificação produtiva, notadamente no setor manufatureiro e nos segmentos tradable do setor de serviços, mediante a identificação de prioridades estratégicas tanto nas cadeias produtivas, segmentos e setores próximos à base de vantagem comparativa preexistente, como naqueles mais próximos à fronteira tecnológica internacional. Embora os argumentos analíticos favoreçam a estratégia de diversificação produtiva, esta não deve ser confundida com semi-autarquia, o que significa que as cadeias e setores que não sejam foco da política industrial devem ter alíquotas de importação zero ou próximas de zero.

Equilíbrio líquido-líquido para o sistema biodiesel de óleo de semente de melão (Cucumis melo l.) + metanol + glicerina

Rio Grande do Norte, northeast state from Brazil, it is the greatest producer and exporter of yellow melon, well known as Spanish melon. Despite the consumption of this fruit to be mainly its pulp, melon seeds are an important source of lipids considered an industrial residue it has been discharge product. The use of oilseeds in order to produce biodiesel establishes an important raw material and the increase of its production promotes the national development of the agriculture. In this background, the aim of this work has been to use oil from seeds of yellow melon to produce biodiesel and to accomplish a study of the phase equilibrium of the system evolving biodiesel, methanol and glycerin. The biodiesel was obtained by oil transesterification through methylic route with molar ratio 1:9.7 (oil:alcohol) and with a mass of NaOH of 0.5% from the oil mass; the reaction time was 73 minutes at 55 °C. A yield of 84.94% in biodiesel was achieved. The equilibria data present a well-characterized behavior with a great region of two phases. The tie lines indicate that methanol has a best solubility in the phase that is rich in glycerin. Consistency of the experimental data was made based on Othmer-Tobias and Hand correlations which values above 0.99 were found to correlation coefficients, this fact confers a good thermodynamic consistency to the experimental data. NRTL and UNIQUAC models were employed to predict liquid-liquid equilibrium of this system. It was observed a better concordance of the results when NRTL was applied (standard deviation 1.25%) although the UNIQUAC model has presented a quite satisfactory result either (standard deviation 2.70%). The NRTL and UNIQUAC models were also used to evaluate the effect of temperature in the range of 328 K to 358 K, in which a little change in solubility with respect to the data obtained at 298 K was observed, thus being considered negligible the effect of temperature

A manutenção do equilíbrio econômico de contratos de obras públicas empreitadas: parâmetros para o estudo de riscos vinculados a atrasos no encaixe do preço

Dentre os diversos segmentos do Setor da Construção Civil, um dos principais é o de obras por empreitada global, que são aquelas contratadas por preço certo e total. As obras públicas, que têm como finalidade atender a uma utilidade pública e cujos contratos são regidos pela Lei 8.666/93, são geralmente contratadas sob esse regime de execução. O artigo 58 desta Lei determina que deva ser mantido o equilíbrio econômicofinanceiro dos contratos celebrados com o Poder Público. A fundamentação teórica trata dos conceitos de obras públicas, dos principais aspectos da Lei 8.666/93, de análise econômico-financeira e de análise de riscos. Este trabalho apresenta também uma sistemática e uma simulação numérica para formação de preços para obras empreitadas de Construção Civil. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é a criação de parâmetros para o estabelecimento de margens de proteção para a dilatação do prazo e respectivos encaixes de preços, visando, como determina a Lei 8.666/93, a manutenção do equilíbrio original. Com base na análise dos resultados de 63 obras, verifica-se a manutenção do equilíbrio econômico-financeiro, comparando-se a taxa de retorno restrita esperada pelas empresas no momento das licitações com a realmente alcançada na operação. A partir dos desvios detectados nas taxas de retorno nesses dois momentos, cria-se, pelo processo de simulação e análise de sensibilidade, parâmetros para cobertura dos referidos riscos. No momento da licitação, a taxa de retorno restrita média das obras analisadas é de 9,45% ao mês. No segundo momento, essa taxa cai para em média para 5,16% ao mês. Isto representa, em média, uma variação de 45,39%. A taxa média de atratividade das obras públicas analisadas está dentro do intervalo de 6% a 13% ao mês. Como parâmetro de cobertura de riscos quanto aos desvios de prazo e encaixe do preço, tem-se o intervalo de 1,5% a 11,5% do preço. Portanto, entre as obras analisadas, não existe o equilíbrio econômico-financeiro.

Comparação do equilíbrio e qualidade de vida entre idosos institucionalizados e não-institucionalizados

Introduction: the improvements on the health area increased the brazilians life expectative. Because of it, more people becomes elder, passing through various common processes of aging, as the balance decrease. Resulting form this the risk of fall increase, and this has a negative impact on the quality of life. As more people become elder the institutionalization tax increase. Objectives: compare the balance and quality of life between institutionalized and non-institutionalized elders; correlate the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) with the Timed Up and Go test (TUG) and with the questionnaire “The Medical Outcome Study 36 – Item Short-Form Health Survey” (SF-36). Methods: were evaluated 20 elders, ten institutionalized (GI) and ten non-institutionalized (GNI). To the balance assessment were used the BBS and the TUG, the quality of life was evaluated using the SF-36. The signifi cance level was set to 5% (p<0,05). The GraphPad Prism 5# was used to analyze the data. To identify the distribution of the data was applied the Shapiro-Wilk test. In the comparison between groups, the normal distributed data were analyzed with the Unpaired Student t test. The non-normal distributed data were analyzed with the Mann-Whitney non-parametric test. The correlations were analyzed with the Pearson (normal data) and Spearman’s (non-normal data) tests. Results: the age average for each group was 72,8±8,36 years (GI) e 67,4±3,53 years (GNI). The GNI had a better performance than the GI in the BBS (*p=0,0017) as in the TUG (*p<0,0002). There wasn’t difference between the quality of life. There was correlation between EEB and TUG (-0,8907 for the GI and -0,7180 for the GNI) and between EEB and the functional capacity domain from the SF-36 (0,7657). Conclusion: the non-institutionalized elders presented best balance. It was found good correlation between TUG and BBS. In the studied sample, to be institutionalized didn’t infl uenced the quality of life.

Equilíbrio eletrolítico e condicionamento térmico: redução do estresse térmico agudo em frangos de corte

Em países de clima tropical, o calor é um dos principais limitantes à produção de frangos de corte, sendo ainda responsável por induzir uma elevada mortalidade, especialmente na fase de terminação. Visando aliviar o efeito do estresse pelo calor, foram avaliadas duas técnicas para melhorar a tolerância térmica: o condicionamento térmico precoce (TCP) e a formulação dieta utilizando o princípio de Mongin (equilíbrio eletrolítico). Para tanto, o balanço eletrolítico do K+Na-Cl foi ajustado em 350 mEq/kg e a relação eletrolítica (K+Cl)/Na em 3:1, pelo programa PPFR (http://www.fmva.unesp.br/ppfr). Foram utilizados 300 pintos machos Cobb 500, em arranjo fatorial 2x2 (com e sem TCP e com e sem o princípio de Mongin), num delineamento inteiramente casualizado, em 24 boxes (6 repetições por tratamento). As aves foram inicialmente alojadas em baterias metálicas (1-7 dias de idade), e posteriormente em piso (8-48 dias de idade), sendo arraçoadas com: (T1) dieta tradicional sem TCP; (T2) dieta tradicional com TCP; (T3) dieta com a aplicação do equilíbrio eletrolítico sem TCP e (T4) dieta com aplicação do equilíbrio eletrolítico com TCP. O condicionamento térmico foi realizado no quinto dia de idade, por 24 horas a 36 °C, somente na metade do lote (150 aves). Após esse período, todas as aves foram transferidas para boxes de 1,5x3m (12 aves/boxe), tendo como cama a maravalha de madeira reutilizada. Aos 36 dias de idade foi aplicado um estresse agudo (36°C) por 8 horas em todos os tratamentos, sendo monitorado eletronicamente a temperatura e a umidade do galpão e do microclima na altura das aves. A alimentação e a água foram ad libitum, mesmo durante o período de estresse. Foram aferidos os dados de desempenho aos 7, 35 e 48 dias de idade para ganho de peso, consumo de ração e conversão alimentar, e também a taxa de mortalidade de cada boxe. Verificou-se que tanto o equilíbrio eletrolítico como o condicionamento térmico precoce foram eficazes significativamente (P<0,05) para minimizar a mortalidade dos frangos submetidos ao estresse agudo de calor, sem prejuízo no desempenho das aves. Além disso, foi observado um efeito mais favorável quando aplicados simultaneamente (T4). Assim, para o tratamento em que nenhuma destas estratégias foram utilizadas (T1), a taxa de mortalidade foi 83% superior ao tratamento em que ambas foram aplicadas (T4). Assim, tanto o condicionamento térmico precoce como o princípio de Mongin foram válidos para minimizar os efeitos danosos causados pelo calor em frangos de corte.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

A new geological model of Cenozoic New Zealand suggests a complex phylogeographic history for New Zealand terrestrial taxa

The new model of North Island Cenozoic palaeogeography developed by Kamp et al. has a range of important implications for the evolution of New Zealand terrestrial taxa over the past 30 Ma. Key aspects include the prolonged isolation of the biota on the North Island landmass from the larger and more diverse greater South Island, and the founding of North Island taxa from the potentially unusual ecosystem of a small island around Northland. The prolonged period of isolation is expected to have generated deep phylogenetic splits within taxa present on both islands, and an important current aim should be to identify such signals in surviving endemics to start building a picture of the historical phylogeography, and inferred ecology of both islands through the Cenozoic. Given the potential differences in founding terrestrial species and climatic conditions, it seems likely that the ecology may have been very diferent between the North and South Islands. New genetic data from the 10 or so species of extinct moa suggest that the radiation of moa was much more recent than previously suggested, and reveals a complex pattern that is inferred to result from the interplay of the Cenozoic biogeography, marine barriers, and glacial cycles.

Wing shape as a potential discriminator of morphologically similar pest taxa within the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Four morphologically cryptic species of the Bactrocera dorsalis fruit fly complex (B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae, B. carambolae and B. philippinensis) are serious agricultural pests. As they are difficult to diagnose using traditional taxonomic techniques, we examined the potential for geometric morphometric analysis of wing size and shape to discriminate between them. Fifteen wing landmarks generated size and shape data for 245 specimens for subsequent comparisons among three geographically distinct samples of each species. Intraspecific wing size was significantly different within samples of B. carambolae and B. dorsalis s.s. but not within samples of B. papayae or B. philippinensis. Although B. papayae had the smallest wings (average centroid size=6.002 mm±0.061 SE) and B. dorsalis s.s. the largest (6.349 mm±0.066 SE), interspecific wing size comparisons were generally non-informative and incapable of discriminating species. Contrary to the wing size data, canonical variate analysis based on wing shape data discriminated all species with a relatively high degree of accuracy; individuals were correctly reassigned to their respective species on average 93.27% of the time. A single sample group of B. carambolae from locality 'TN Malaysia' was the only sample to be considerably different from its conspecific groups with regards to both wing size and wing shape. This sample was subsequently deemed to have been originally misidentified and likely represents an undescribed species. We demonstrate that geometric morphometric techniques analysing wing shape represent a promising approach for discriminating between morphologically cryptic taxa of the B. dorsalis species complex.

Genes and growth performance in crustacean species : a review of relevant genomic studies in crustaceans and other taxa

Global aquaculture has expanded rapidly to address the increasing demand for aquatic protein needs and an uncertain future for wild fisheries. To date, however, most farmed aquatic stocks are essentially wild and little is known about their genomes or the genes that affect important economic traits in culture. Biologists have recognized that recent technological advances including next generation sequencing (NGS) have opened up the possibility of generating genome wide sequence data sets rapidly from non-model organisms at a reasonable cost. In an era when virtually any study organism can 'go genomic', understanding gene function and genetic effects on expressed quantitative trait locus phenotypes will be fundamental to future knowledge development. Many factors can influence the individual growth rate in target species but of particular importance in agriculture and aquaculture will be the identification and characterization of the specific gene loci that contribute important phenotypic variation to growth because the information can be applied to speed up genetic improvement programmes and to increase productivity via marker-assisted selection (MAS). While currently there is only limited genomic information available for any crustacean species, a number of putative candidate genes have been identified or implicated in growth and muscle development in some species. In an effort to stimulate increased research on the identification of growth-related genes in crustacean species, here we review the available information on: (i) associations between genes and growth reported in crustaceans, (ii) growth-related genes involved with moulting, (iii) muscle development and degradation genes involved in moulting, and; (iv) correlations between DNA sequences that have confirmed growth trait effects in farmed animal species used in terrestrial agriculture and related sequences in crustacean species. The information in concert can provide a foundation for increasing the rate at which knowledge about key genes affecting growth traits in crustacean species is gained.

Reconciling folksonomic tagging with taxa for bioacoustic annotations

Acoustic sensors are increasingly used to monitor biodiversity. They can remain deployed in the environment for extended periods to passively and objectively record the sounds of the environment. The collected acoustic data must be analyzed to identify the presence of the sounds made by fauna in order to understand biodiversity. Citizen scientists play an important role in analyzing this data by annotating calls and identifying species. This paper presents our research into bioacoustic annotation techniques. It describes our work in defining a process for managing, creating, and using tags that are applied to our annotations. This paper includes a detailed description of our methodology for correcting and then linking our folksonomic tags to taxonomic data sources. Providing tools and processes for maintaining species naming consistency is critical to the success of a project designed to generate scientific data. We demonstrate that cleaning the folksonomic data and providing links to external taxonomic authorities enhances the scientific utility of the tagging efforts of citizen scientists.

Firmicutes dominate the bacterial taxa within sugar-cane processing plants

Sugar cane processing sites are characterised by high sugar/hemicellulose levels, available moisture and warm conditions, and are relatively unexplored unique microbial environments. The PhyloChip microarray was used to investigate bacterial diversity and community composition in three Australian sugar cane processing plants. These ecosystems were highly complex and dominated by four main Phyla, Firmicutes (the most dominant), followed by Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Chloroflexi. Significant variation (p , 0.05) in community structure occurred between samples collected from ‘floor dump sediment’, ‘cooling tower water’, and ‘bagasse leachate’. Many bacterial Classes contributed to these differences, however most were of low numerical abundance. Separation in community composition was also linked to Classes of Firmicutes, particularly Bacillales, Lactobacillales and Clostridiales, whose dominance is likely to be linked to their physiology as ‘lactic acid bacteria’, capable of fermenting the sugars present. This process may help displace other bacterial taxa, providing a competitive advantage for Firmicutes bacteria.

Genetic variation within two sympatric spotted gum eucalypts exceeds between taxa variation

Population substructure and hybridization, among other factors, have the potential to cause erroneous associations in linkage disequilibrium (LD) mapping. Two closely related spotted gum eucalypts, Corymbia variegata and C. henryi (Myrtaceae) occur in sympatry in the east coast of Australia and potentially interbreed. They are morphologically similar but are distinguished as separate species based on capsule and foliage size. To determine whether they hybridize in nature and its implications for LD mapping, we investigated the level of molecular divergence between the two species at two sympatric locations separated by 300 kilometres. Very few individuals of intermediate morphology were identified, despite the two species occurring only metres apart. Analysis of genetic structure using 12 microsatellite loci showed that genetic differentiation between populations of the same species at different locations (FST = 0.07 for both species; p = 0.0001) was significantly higher than that observed between species at each location (mean FST = 0.02 and 0.04 for Cherry tree and Bunyaville respectively; p = 0.0001; all Mann-Whitney U-test p ≤ 0.01). No species-specific alleles or significant allele frequency differences were detected within a site, suggesting recurrent local gene flow between the two species. The lack of significant allele frequency differences implies no population stratification along taxonomic lines. This suggested that there is little concern for cryptic hybridization when sampling from sites of sympatry for LD mapping.