Culture in business interaction: an individual perspective : empirical studies in Finnish-Russian business relationships

The main objective of this doctoral dissertation is to reach a holistic and indepth understanding of the intercultural interaction within dyadic business relationships through the perspective of individual managers. The empirical setting is dyadic business relationships between Russian and Finnish firms in construction and engineering industries. The motivation for the study mainly arose from: 1) the lack of business marketing literature considering cultural and individual perspectives; 2) the need to find ways to study intercultural issues in business relationships, other than through the application of models derived from the work of Hofstede (1980). The study consists of two parts, an introductory essay containing the research objectives, theoretical foundations, methodological choices, limitations and contributions, and original research articles. The four articles each address a sub-objective: 1) to develop an understanding of intercultural business relationships development, cultural adaptation, and its role in the development of trust (Article 1); 2) to develop an appropriate methodological framework for studying business interaction from a cultural and individual perspective (Article 2); 3) to develop an understanding of the role of culture in individual manager’s sensemaking of interaction events in business relationships (Article 3); and 4) to develop an appropriate theoretical framework for studying interactive intercultural business relationships in international industrial markets (Article 4). The ontological and epistemological foundations are built on the interpretivist/ social constructivist view of reality. Interaction, in this study, is seen as being conducted between individuals, who are the key representative actors of their firms. In turn, culture is regarded both as an independent context existing prior to the individuals’ participation in it, and as knowledge incorporated by the individuals, who use it in sensemaking and interaction across cultures. The methods applied in the articles are: an interpretive qualitative study (Article 1), a literature review and conceptual analysis (Article 2), a structural analysis of the narratives and a metaphor analysis (Article 3), and a literature review and conceptual analysis (Article 4). The main contributions are the following. First, it contributes to business marketing literature by developing the theoretical, conceptual, and methodological underpinning of IMP theories in relation to culture. Second, the thesis contributes to the growing literature on managerial sensemaking in industrial markets by looking at it from a cultural perspective, as well as emphasizing the importance of figurative language in cultural sensemaking.

Balancing creativity and risk intelligence in professional knowledge-intensive business services

The main strengths of professional knowledge-intensive business services (P-KIBS) are knowledge and creativity which needs to be fostered, maintained and supported. The process of managing P-KIBS companies deals with financial, operational and strategic risks. That is why it is reasonable to apply risk management techniques and frameworks in this context. A significant challenge hides in choosing reasonable ways of implementing risk management, which will not limit creative ability in organization, and furthermore will contribute to the process. This choice is related to a risk intelligent approach which becomes a justified way of finding the required balance. On a theoretical level the field of managing both creativity and risk intelligence as a balanced process remains understudied in particular within KIBS industry. For instance, there appears to be a wide range of separate models for innovation and risk management, but very little discussion in terms of trying to find the right balance between them. This study aims to shed light on the importance of well-managed combination of these concepts. The research purpose of the present study is to find out how the balance between creativity and risk intelligence can be managed in P-KIBS. The methodological approach utilized in the study is strictly conceptual without empirical aspects. The research purpose can be achieved through answering the following research supporting questions: 1. What are the characteristics and role of creativity as a component of innovation process in a P-KIBS company? 2. What are the characteristics and role of risk intelligence as an approach towards risk management process implementation in a P-KIBS company? 3. How can risk intelligence and creativity be balanced in P-KIBS? The main theoretical contribution of the study conceals in a proposed creativity and risk intelligence stage process framework. It is designed as an algorithm that can be applied on organizational canvas. It consists of several distinct stages specified by actors involved, their roles and implications. Additional stage-wise description provides detailed tasks for each of the enterprise levels, while combining strategies into one. The insights driven from the framework can be utilized by a vast range of specialists from strategists to risk managers, and from innovation managers to entrepreneurs. Any business that is designing and delivering knowledge service can potentially gain valuable thoughts and expand conceptual understanding from the present report. Risk intelligence in the current study is a unique way of emphasizing the role of creativity in professional knowledge-intensive industry and a worthy technique for making profound decisions towards risks.

Building a Research Data Registry for the UK

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Factors Affecting Consumer Investment Intentions. Empirical Evidence from Finland

The thesis aims to build a theoretical model to explain consumer investment intentions in stocks and investment funds. The model examines the relationships between subjective investment knowledge, expected sacrifice, expected investment value, compatibility, perceived behavioral control and investment intentions. The data was collected via web-based survey and consisted of 45- to 65-year-old Finnish consumers (n=154). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), structural equation modeling (SEM) and t-tests were applied in analyzing the data. The results suggest that among average household consumers expected investment value consists of three dimensions, namely, economic, functional, and emotional, whereas expected sacrifice consists of effort, financial risk, source risk, and psychological risk. Two structural models were assessed, one for stock investments and one for investment funds. Whereas the models presented somewhat different outcomes, in both models compatibility had an essential role in explaining consumer investment intentions. Compatibility was affected by expected investment value and expected sacrifice. Subjective investment knowledge impacted consumers’ evaluations of the value and sacrifices. The effect of perceived behavioral control on investment intentions was rather small, however significant. Moreover, the results suggest that there are significant differences between consumers with no investment experience and consumers with investment experience in subjective investment knowledge, the dimensions of expected sacrifices and expected investment value, perceived behavioral control, compatibility and investment intentions.

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and Bayesian filtering for state space models

This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

Foreign Direct Investment, Clean Development Mechanism, and Environmental Management: A case of Sub-Saharan Africa

This doctoral dissertation explores the contribution of environmental management practices, the so-called clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in achieving sustainable development in developing countries, particularly in Sub- Saharan Africa. Because the climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most serious global environmental challenges, the main focus is on the causal links between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, the dissertation investigates the factors that have affected the distribution of CDM projects in developing countries and the relationships between FDI and other macroeconomic variables of interest. The main contribution of the dissertation is empirical. One of the publications uses crosssectional data and Tobit and Poisson regressions. Three of the studies use time-series data and vector autoregressive and vector error correction models, while two publications use panel data and panel data estimation methods. One of the publications uses thus both timeseries and panel data. The concept of Granger causality is utilized in four of the publications. The results indicate that there are significant differences in the Granger causality relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and FDI in different countries. It appears also that the causality relationships change over time. Furthermore, the results support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis but only for some of the countries. As to CDM activities, past emission levels, institutional quality, and the size of the host country appear to be among the significant determinants of the distribution of CDM projects. FDI and exports are also found to be significant determinants of economic growth.

The way to organizational longevity - Balancing stability and change in Shinise firms

THE WAY TO ORGANIZATIONAL LONGEVITY – Balancing stability and change in Shinise firms The overall purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the secret of longevity in Shinise firms. On the basic assumption that organizational longevity is about balancing stability and change, the theoretical perspectives incorporate routine practice, organizational culture, and organizational identity. These theories explain stability and change in an organization separately and in combination. Qualitative inductive theory building was used in the study. Overall, the empirical data comprised 75 in-depth and semi-structured interviews, 137 archival materials, and observations made over 17 weeks. According to the empirical findings, longevity in Shinise firms is attributable to the internal mechanisms (Shinise tenacity, stability in motion, and emergent change) to secure a balance between stability and change, the continuing stability of the socio-cultural environment in the local community, and active interaction between organizational and local cultures. The contribution of the study to the literature on organizational longevity and the alternative theoretical approaches is first, in theorizing the mechanisms of Shinise tenacity and cross-level cultural dynamism, and second, in pointing out the critical role of: the way firms set their ultimate goal, the dynamism in culture, and the effect of history of the firm to the current business in securing longevity. KEY WORDS Change; Culture; Organizational identity; Organizational longevity; Routines; Shinise firms; Stability; Qualitative research

Toisen jäte on toisen raaka-aine – Kierrätys ja uudelleenvalmistus taloudellisesti ja ekologisesti kestävänä liiketoimintamahdollisuutena

Toisen jäte on toisen raaka-aine – Kierrätys ja uudelleenvalmistus taloudellisesti ja ekologisesti kestävänä liiketoimintamahdollisuutena Väitöskirjatutkimus tarkastelee kierrätystä ja uudelleenvalmistusta sekä siihen perustuvaa kierrätysliiketoimintaa taloudellisesti ja ekologisesti kestävänä liiketoimintamahdollisuutena. Tässä kestävyys tarkoittaa jätekysymysten ratkaisemista tavalla, joka mahdollistaa kestävän kehityksen periaatteiden mukaisen yhteiskunnan kehittymisen. Jätteisiin liittyvät taloudelliset ja ekolo- giset kysymykset ovat merkittävä yhteiskunnallinen haaste. Tämä luo tarpeen tutkimukselle, jonka lähtökohtana on jätekysymysten moniulotteinen tarkas- telu ja yksittäisen yrityksen toiminnan suhteuttaminen osaksi laajempaa kokonaisuutta. Tässä tutkimuksessa jätteen hyödyntämistä materiaalina lähestytään sekä empiirisesti yrityksen näkökulmasta että teoreettisesti systeemiajattelun tarjoamasta laajemmasta perspektiivistä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on ymmär- tää kierrätystä ja uudelleenvalmistusta liiketoimintamahdollisuutena, niiden merkitystä yrityksessä, alueella ja kierrätystaloudessa sekä näiden vuorovai- kutteista suhdetta taloudelliseen ja ekologiseen kestävyyteen nähden. Tutki- muskysymys on tärkeä, koska siihen vastaamalla syvennetään ymmärrystä yrityksissä tapahtuvan kierrätyksen ja uudelleenvalmistuksen merkityksestä kestävämmän yhteiskunnan rakentumisessa. Tutkimuksen teoriaperusta pohjautuu teollisen ekologian kirjallisuuteen ja ekoteollisen kehityksen tutkimukseen. Kierrätysliiketoiminnan kestävyyden tarkastelu rakentuu tutkimuksessa teollisen ekologian ja ekoteollisen kehityk- sen lähtökohtana olevaan win-win-ajatteluun, jonka mukaan hyvä ympäristö- suorituskyky ja hyvä taloudellinen suorituskyky voivat vahvistaa toisiaan. Kierrätysliiketoiminnan teoreettisessa tarkastelussa keskeisiä elementtejä ovat kierrätystalouden malli, teollisen ekologian alueelliset systeemit, ekoteolliset verkostot ja yrityksen rooli teollista ekologiaa soveltavana toimijana. Tutki- muksen keskeisenä kontribuutiona on yritysnäkökulman integroiminen aiem- paa vahvemmin osaksi teollisen ekologian diskursseja. Kierrätysliiketoiminnan taloudelliseen ja ekologiseen kannattavuuteen ja sen myötä kestävyyteen liittyviä kysymyksiä on lähestytty tekemällä yritys- haastatteluja ja hyödyntämällä valmista haastatteluaineistoa. Tutkimusta varten haastattelin 10 kierrätysliiketoimintaa harjoittavaa yritystä vuosina 2007 ja 2008. Tämän lisäksi tutkimuksessa on hyödynnetty Turun ammatti- korkeakoulun ja Turku Science Parkin toteuttamassa RESU-hankkeessa (Kierrätysliiketoiminta ja resurssitehokkuus Varsinais-Suomen vahvuudeksi – RESU) vuosina 2013 ja 2014 kerättyä aineistoa. Hankkeessa haastateltiin yhteensä 25 jätemateriaalia hyödyntävää ja/tai tuottavaa yritystä. Aineistojen analysointimenetelmänä on sisällönanalyysi. Analyysin tulok- sena muodostettiin yhteensä viisi pääteemaa ja 12 alateemaa. Teemat kuvaavat kierrätysliiketoimintaa aiempaa moniulotteisemmin ja näin syventävät ymmär- rystä ilmiön merkityksestä kestävämmän yhteiskunnan rakentumisessa. Teolli- sen ekologian alaan kuuluvat kvalitatiiviset tutkimukset ovat melko harvinai- sia, joten tämän väitöstutkimuksen ilmeisenä vahvuutena on laadullisen tutkimusmenetelmän hyödyntäminen. Tutkimuksen tuloksena voidaan todeta, että kierrätystalouden kehittymistä edistävä kierrätysliiketoiminta on monimuotoista ja sisältää erilaisia liiketoi- mintamahdollisuuksia sekä arvoketjuja. Paikallistuntemus ja keskeinen sijainti jätemateriaalien tuottajien suhteen on tärkeä kriteeri kierrätysliiketoiminnassa, mutta jätemateriaaleja myös kuljetetaan pitkiä matkoja. Paikallisia tai alueelli- sia jätevirtoja hyödyntävä kierrätysliiketoiminta voi tukea alueellista kestä- vyyttä, mutta toisinaan myös keskitetty hyödyntäminen voi olla kestävä vaih- toehto. Yhteistyöverkostot ovat tärkeitä jätemateriaalin laadun ja saatavuuden näkökulmasta. Tutkimus osoittaa, että kierrätysliiketoimintaa harjoittavat yritykset ovat samalla sekä kierrätystalouden käytännön toimeenpanijoita että uuden toimintakulttuurin luojia. Tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella voidaan esittää johtopäätös, että kierrä- tysliiketoiminta on taloudellisesti ja ekologisesti kannattava liiketoimintamah- dollisuus. Win-win-ratkaisut eivät kuitenkaan takaa kierrätysliiketoiminnan kestävyyttä. Kierrätysliiketoiminnan kestävyyden arvioiminen edellyttää laajaa perspektiiviä ja toiminnan vaikutusten suhteuttamista mittakaavaan, ajalliseen ulottuvuuteen, interventioon ja sosiaalisiin kysymyksiin. Teolliseen ekologiaan perustuva kierrätysliiketoiminta luo mahdollisuuksia edistää kestävyyttä, joten tällä perusteella kierrätystä ja uudelleenvalmistusta voidaan pitää kestävänä liiketoimintamahdollisuutena. Avainsanat: kierrätysliiketoiminta, kierrätys, uudelleenvalmistus, systeemiajattelu, teollinen ekologia, ekoteollinen kehitys, kierrätystalous, win-win-ajattelu, kestävyys One company's waste is another's raw material –Recycling and remanufacturing as an economically and environmentally sustainable business opportunity The thesis investigates whether product recycling and remanufacturing can serve as a business opportunity that is economically and ecologically sustaina- ble. In this effort, my idea is to contribute to solving the waste issue in a manner that makes it possible to strive toward sustainable societal develop- ment. The economic and ecological questions associated with waste flows are a significant challenge. The complexity of the issue requires a multidimen- sional approach in which the operation of an individual company is viewed in the context of the larger societal system. In this thesis waste utilization as a resource with value is considered both from an empirical perspective on the firm as well as from a more general viewpoint offered by systems analysis. The objective of the thesis is to under- stand recycling and remanufacturing as a business opportunity. The thesis considers the meaning of recycling and remanufacturing for a single company, for the region the company is located and for the recycling economy. The objective of this study is important for it enhances the understanding of the product recycling and remanufacturing processes that take place within busi- ness organizations and how these processes affect societal sustainable development. The theoretical basis arises from industrial ecology and from the literature on eco-industrial development. The business-economic win-win situation and this vision serve as the basic position from which recycling business is inves- tigated in the thesis. In the theoretical discussion, key elements are recycling economy model, regional and local industrial ecosystems, eco-industrial networks and the role of a company as an actor that applies industrial ecology in practice. The main contribution of this study lies in integrating the company perspective more strongly into the industrial ecology discourses. The recycling business has been studied by conducting interviews in companies and by secondary analysis of an existing interview material. During 2007 and 2008 I made 10 interviews in companies that are active in recycling business. In addition, I used interview material gathered for the project “Recycling business and resource efficiency as the strength of Southwest Finland” (RESU) by Turku University of Applied Sciences and Turku Science Park during the period 2013–2014. This data covers altogether 25 businesses that either utilize and/or produce waste materials. The data has been analyzed using the content analysis method. This process led to the development of 5 main themes and 12 sub-themes. These themes describe the recycling business multi-dimensionally and thus understanding of the phenomenon and its role in building a sustainable society are substantially deepened in this research. In the field of industrial ecology qualitative studies are relatively rare and therefore the qualitative research approach is an evident strength of the thesis. The results show that the recycling business activity supporting recycling economy has diverse dimensions including various business opportunities and diverse value chains. The results show that for waste producers it is important to know the local situational factors and to have a central geographical location. Waste materials are, however, transported over long distances as well. The study indicates that local waste flow utilization can support regional sustainability, while occasionally a more centralized utilization can be sustain- able. Collaboration networks are important to secure the quality and availabil- ity of utilizable waste materials. The thesis demonstrates that the companies practicing recycling business serve simultaneously as actors that implement recycling economy and enhance a new operation culture within the business community. The overall conclusion of the thesis argues that recycling business is a business opportunity that can support both an economically and environmen- tally viable business operation. However, win-win solutions do not secure the sustainability of recycling business. The sustainability evaluation of recycling business requires a holistic systems perspective. The actions undertaken need to be considered with changing spatial and temporal system boundaries, societal intervention and placed in the context of relevant societal issues. Industrial ecology -based recycling business creates opportunities for sustain- ability and thus recycling and remanufacturing present an opportunity for sustainable business. Keywords: Recycling business; Recycling; Remanufacturing, Systems thinking; Industrial ecology; Eco-industrial development; Recycling Economy; Win-Win thinking; Sustainability

Two Levels of Motivation and Two Types of Well-Being: Relations Between General and Goal-Specific Motivations, and Eudaimonic and Hedonic Well-Being

In this thesis I assess the individual and joint predictive associations and effects between multiple motivation and well-being concepts. In particular, three pairs of motivation concepts (intrinsic/extrinsic, approach/avoidance, and eudaimonic/hedonic) are assessed simultaneously at two levels of analysis (disposition and goal) and examined in relation to two types of well-being (eudaimonic and hedonic) in two studies, one correlational and the other experimental. Study 1: Using a correlational design, participants (N = 325, M age = 19.10, 87% female) completed self-report measures assessing six motivation and two well-being concepts. Exploratory factor analyses were used to assess patterns of associations among the motivational constructs. Results indicated that constructs displaying conceptual and empirical similarities co-occur, particularly, intrinsic, approach and eudaimonic motivation. Regression models were used to assess predictive relations between the motivational constructs and well-being. Both types of well-being were predicted by approach and avoidance dispositions, and hedonic goals. Additionally, eudaimonic well-being was uniquely predicted by eudaimonic dispositions and goals, and intrinsic dispositions; and hedonic well-being was uniquely predicted by extrinsic dispositions and approach goals. The patterns of associations among motivational constructs, and similarities and differences in the ways they predict each type of well-being, are discussed. Study 2: Using an experimental design, participants (N = 447, M age = 19.30, 88% female) were randomly assigned to one of eight experimental conditions, each involving a manipulation aimed at priming combinations of the three pairs of motivational constructs at the goal level. Participants then completed measures of both types of well-being. ANOVAs were used to assess the main effects and interactions of experimental condition for each of the three pairs of motivational constructs on well-being. Main effects of experimental conditions were non-significant. However, results indicated that focus on each of the three pairs of motivational constructs predicted well-being and that the manipulation impacted well-being indirectly, through experimentally-shifted motivational focus. Few interactions emerged. Implications for future experimental research and the conceptual integration of motivation and well-being constructs are discussed. In conclusion, Studies 1 and 2 inform the motivation and well-being fields in novel ways and provide preliminary steps towards studying these fields from an integrated and comprehensive motivational framework.

Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

Wage Policy of Firms: an Empirical Investigation.

This paper analyzes the dynamics of wages and workers' mobility within firms with a hierarchical structure of job levels. The theoretical model proposed by Gibbons and Waldman (1999), that combines the notions of human capital accumulation, job rank assignments based on comparative advantage and learning about workers' abilities, is implemented empirically to measure the importance of these elements in explaining the wage policy of firms. Survey data from the GSOEP (German Socio-Economic Panel) are used to draw conclusions on the common features characterizing the wage policy of firms from a large sample of firms. The GSOEP survey also provides information on the worker's rank within his firm which is usually not available in other surveys. The results are consistent with non-random selection of workers onto the rungs of a job ladder. There is no direct evidence of learning about workers' unobserved abilities but the analysis reveals that unmeasured ability is an important factor driving wage dynamics. Finally, job rank effects remain significant even after controlling for measured and unmeasured characteristics.

Exact Nonparametric Two-Sample Homogeneity Tests for Possibly Discrete Distributions.

In this paper, we study several tests for the equality of two unknown distributions. Two are based on empirical distribution functions, three others on nonparametric probability density estimates, and the last ones on differences between sample moments. We suggest controlling the size of such tests (under nonparametric assumptions) by using permutational versions of the tests jointly with the method of Monte Carlo tests properly adjusted to deal with discrete distributions. We also propose a combined test procedure, whose level is again perfectly controlled through the Monte Carlo test technique and has better power properties than the individual tests that are combined. Finally, in a simulation experiment, we show that the technique suggested provides perfect control of test size and that the new tests proposed can yield sizeable power improvements.

Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence

This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.

The Wage Rate and the Profit Rate in the Price of Production Equation: a New Solution to an Old Problem

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that, even if Marx's solution to the transformation problem can be modified, his basic concusions remain valid.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.