Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns in the French stock market

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

Desenvolvimento de acessórios de máquinas de movimentação de terras recorrendo a soluções avançadas em aço de alta resistência

Dissertação de mestrado em Tecnologias de Manufatura

Exploração de dados para soluções de retalho em business intelligence

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia de Gestão e Sistemas de Informação

Defining habitat characteristics influencing the distribution, density and growth of Plaice (Pleuronectes Platessa) and Dab (Limanda Limanda) on west of Ireland nursery grounds

Plaice (Pleuronectes platessa, L.) and dab (Limanda limanda, L.) are among the most abundant flatfishes in the north-eastern Atlantic region and the dominant species in shallow coastal nursery grounds. With increasing pressures on commercial flatfish stocks in combination with changing coastal environments, better knowledge of population dynamics during all life stages is needed to evaluate variability in year-class strength and recruitment to the fishery. The aim of this research was to investigate the complex interplay of biotic and abiotic habitat components influencing the distribution, density and growth of plaice and dab during the vulnerable juvenile life stage and to gain insight in spatial and temporal differences in nursery habitat quality along the west coast of Ireland. Intraspecific variability in plaice diet was observed at different spatial scales and showed a link with condition, recent growth and morphology. This highlights the effect of food availability on habitat quality and the need to consider small scale variation when attempting to link habitat quality to feeding, growth and condition of juvenile flatfish. There was evidence of trophic, spatial and temporal resource partitioning between juvenile plaice and dab allowing the co-existence of morphologically similar species in nursery grounds. In the limited survey years there was no evidence that the carrying capacity of the studied nursery grounds was reached but spatial and interannual variations in fish growth indicated fluctuating environments in terms of food availability, predator densities, sediment features and physico-chemical conditions. Predation was the most important factor affecting habitat quality for juvenile plaice and dab with crab densities negatively correlated to fish condition whereas shrimp densities were negatively associated with densities of small-sized juveniles in spring. A comparison of proxies for fish growth showed the advantage of Fulton’s K for routine use whereas RNA:DNA ratios proved less powerful when short-term environmental fluctuations are lacking. This study illustrated how distinct sets of habitat features can drive spatial variation in density and condition of juvenile flatfish highlighting the value of studying both variables when modeling habitat requirements. The habitat models generated in this study also provide a powerful tool to predict potential climate and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution and condition of juveniles in flatfish nurseries. The need for effective coastal zone management was emphasized to ensure a sustainable use of coastal resources and successful flatfish recruitment to the fishery.

Population dynamics of 0-group flounder (Platichthys flesus L.) in Galway Bay, West of Ireland and the value of flounder from shore angling tourism in Ireland

The economic value of flounder from shore angling around Ireland was assessed. Flounder catches from shore angling tournaments around Ireland were related to domestic and overseas shore angling expenditure in order to determine an economic value for the species. Temporal trends in flounder angling catches, and specimen (trophy) flounder reports were also investigated. Flounder was found to be the most caught shore angling species in competitions around Ireland constituting roughly one third of the shore angling competition catch although this did vary by area. The total value of flounder from shore angling tourism was estimated to be of the order of €8.4 million. No significant temporal trends in flounder angling catches and specimen reports were found. Thus there is no evidence from the current study for any decline in flounder stocks. The population dynamics of 0-group flounder during the early benthic stage was investigated at estuarine sites in Galway Bay, west of Ireland. Information was analysed from the March to June sampling period over five years (2002 to 2006). Spatial and temporal variations in settlement and population length structure were analysed between beach and river habitats and sites. Settlement of flounder began from late March to early May of each year, most commonly in April. Peak settlement was usually in April or early May. Settlement was recorded earlier than elsewhere, although most commonly was similar to the southern part of the UK and northern France. Settlement was generally later in tidal rivers than on sandy beaches. Abundance of 0-group flounder in Galway Bay did not exhibit significant inter -annual variability. 0-group flounder were observed in dense aggregations of up to 105 m'2, which were patchy in distribution. Highest densities of 0-group flounder were recorded in limnetic and oligohaline areas as compared with the lower densities in polyhaline and to a lesser extent mesohaline areas. Measurements to of salinity allowed the classification of beaches, and tidal river sections near the mouth, into a salinity based scheme for length comparisons. Beaches were classified as polyhaline,the lower section of rivers as mesohaline, and the middle and upper sections as oligohaline. Over the March to June sampling period 0-group flounder utilised different sections at different length ranges and were significantly larger in more upstream sections. During initial settlement in April, 0-group flounder of 8-10 mm (standard length, SL) were present in abundance on polyhaline sandy beaches. By about 10mm (SL), flounder were present in all polyhaline, mesohaline and (oligohaline) sections. 0-group flounder became absent or in insignificant numbers in polyhaline and mesohaline sections in a matter of weeks after first appearance. From April to June, 0-group flounder of 12-30mm (SL) were found in more upstream locations in the oligohaline sections. About one month (May or June) after initial settlement, 0-group flounder became absent from the oligohaline sections. Concurrently, flounder start to reappear in mesohaline and polyhaline areas at approximately 30mm (SL) in June. The results indicate 0-group flounder in the early benthic stage are associated with low salinity areas, but as they grow, this association diminishes. Results strongly suggest that migration of 0-group flounder between habitats takes place during the early benthic phase.

Data for the sustainable management of an emerging fishery: Age, growth and stock structure of Atlantic saury Scomberesox saurus saurus (Walbaum), in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

Almost half of Ireland’s commercial stocks face overexploitation. As traditional species decrease in abundance and become less profitable, the industry is increasingly turning to alternate species. Atlantic saury (Scomberesox saurus saurus (Walbaum)) has been identified as a potential species for exploitation. Very little information is available on its biology or population dynamics, especially for Irish waters. This thesis aims to obtain sound scientific data, which will help to ensure that a future Atlantic saury fishery can be sustainably managed. The research has produced valuable data, some of which contradicts previous studies. Growth of Atlantic saury measured using otolith microstructure is found to be more than twice that previously calculated from annual structures on scales and otoliths. This results in a significant reduction of the expected life span from five to about two years. Investigation of maturity stage at age indicates that Atlantic saury will reproduce for the first time at age one and will survive for one or at most two reproduction seasons. It is concluded that a future Irish fishery will target mostly fish prior to their first reproduction. Finally the thesis gives some insights into the population structure of Atlantic saury, by analysis of otolith morphometric. Significant differences are detected between Northeastern Atlantic and western Mediterranean Sea specimens of the 0+ age class (less than one year old). The implications of these results for the management of an emerging fishery are discussed.

Age, growth and reproductive biology of Plaice, (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in Irish waters, 2003-2005

The current study presents data on age and growth for plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) sampled between November 2003 and February 2005 in ICES areas Via (northwest coast of Ireland), Vila (Irish Sea), Vllg (Celtic Sea), VDj (southwest coast of Ireland) and VHb (west coast of Ireland), and data on the reproductive biology and maturity of plaice in ICES area Vllb (west coast of Ireland). This is the first detailed account of the biology of plaice for some of these areas. It is intended that this study will improve understanding of the life cycle of plaice and help fisheries scientists to better predict the effect of fishing effort on Irish plaice stocks. The overall length range found for plaice was 9-51.99cm TL, with a length range of 9-5 lcm TL for females and 9-40cm for males. In all ICES areas the length range for female fish was larger than for male fish. The age range of plaice sampled during this study was 1 to 16 years. In all ICES areas females had a greater range in ages and fish in the larger age groups. From analysis of length and age data it was concluded that there was a significant difference (P=0.000) in growth rate of males and females between ICES areas sampled in March 2004. The highest rate of fishing mortality was determined for ICES area Via (F=1.06) and the lowest for ICES area Vila (F=0.56). In each ICES area male and female plaice have fully recruited to the population by age 4, with the exception of females in ICES area Via, for which a tr value of 5 years was determined. Length at first maturity (L50%) was determined to be 23cm and 21cm for males and females respectively. Age at first maturity (A50%) was determined to be 3 years for both males and females. It was found that males and females in ICES areas Vllb, Vila and Via are well above the length and age at first maturity when they are recruited to the fishery. In ICES area Vllb female plaice spawn from November to March, with peak spawning occurring in February, and male plaice spawn from November to April, with peak spawning occurring in November. Spawning females had an age range of 2 to 10 years and spawning males had an age range of 2 to 7 years. From the oocyte length frequency distributions, it was determined that the plaice is a determinate batch spawner. During this investigation a total of 177 ovaries and 127 testes were staged using both macroscopic and histological criteria. The overall percentage of maturity stages which compared favorably between the two assessment methods was 22.03% for female plaice and 37.80% for male plaice. In general, the findings of this study indicate that there was a very poor match between the macroscopic and histological assessment methods. Given that the histological determination of these stages is based on the observation of a distinct set of developmental features, it is expected that it would be more accurate to use histologically assessed gonads to calculate the annual percentage maturity assessment. The biology of plaice in the areas studied is compared with previous studies of plaice in Irish and European waters.

Analysis of phenotypes altered by temperature stress and hipermutability in Drosophila willistoni

Drosophila willistoni (Sturtevant, 1916) is a species of the willistoni group of Drosophila having wide distribution from the South of USA (Florida) and Mexico to the North of Argentina. It has been subject of many evolutionary studies within the group, due to its considerable ability to successfully occupy a wide range of environments and also because of its great genetic variability expressed by different markers. The D. willistoni 17A2 strain was collected in 1991 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (30°05'S, 51°39'W), and has been maintained since then at the Drosophila laboratory of UFRGS. Different to the other D. willistoni strains maintained in the laboratory, the 17A2 strain spontaneously produced mutant males white-like (white eyes) and sepia-like (brown eyes) in stocks held at 17°C. In order to discover if this strain is potentially hypermutable, we submitted it to temperature stress tests. Eighteen isofemale strains were used in our tests and, after the first generation, all the individuals produced in each strain were maintained at 29°C. Different phenotype alterations were observed in subsequent generations, similar to mutations already well characterized in D. melanogaster (white, sepia, blistered and curly). In addition, an uncommon phenotype alteration with an apparent fusion of the antennae was observed, but only in the isofemale line nº 31. This last alteration has not been previously described as a mutation in the D. melanogaster species. Our results indicate that the D. willistoni 17A2 strain is a candidate for hypermutability, which presents considerable cryptic genetic variability. Different factors may be operating for the formation of this effect, such as the mobilization of transposable elements, effect of inbreeding and alteration of the heat-shock proteins functions.

Spatio-temporal variation of the pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis (Crustacea, Decapoda, Penaeidae) associated to the seasonal overture of the sandbar in a subtropical lagoon

On the southern Brazilian coast, the penaeid pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis (Pérez-Farfante, 1967) is intensively captured by both artisanal and industrial fisheries. In the Ibiraquera Lagoon, artisanal fishing of juvenile stocks has declined sharply over the last 15 years. The traditional management methods used by fishermen are no longer sustainable due to conflicts with the demands of tourism and weak environmental and public agencies. The dynamics of the timing of the artificial opening and natural reformation of a sandbar across the mouth of the lagoon are regarded as a central socio-ecological problem. We evaluated the abundance and biomass variation of F. paulensis throughout the year and along a spatial gradient measured from the sandbar into the lagoon. We also explored the influence of opening the sandbar on the shrimp population. Samples were collected monthly from February 2004 to February 2005, using a 27 mm mesh cast net, in four different areas, with three sites being sampled per area. Small numbers of large shrimps were captured in the upper area, while greater biomass and abundance of small shrimps were observed near the sandbar, suggesting the role of the inner area as a refuge for growing. The highest records for biomass and abundance were recorded during warm months, regardless if the lagoon was open or closed by the sandbar. The Ibiraquera Lagoon could be more productive for fishermen if the sandbar opening was coincident to the period of natural post-larvae influx. Furthermore, coastal stocks could be improved by opening the sandbar again during summer in conjunction with fishing quotas.

Implantação do mixoma infeccioso do coelho na câmara anterior do ôlho da cobaia

Mammalian cancer as well as the Rous chicken sarcoma has been successfully transplanted into the anterior chamber of the eyes of guinea pigs. It was of interest, therefore, to see if the infectious myxomatosis of rabbits, another representative of the infectious tumors, could be grown in the anterior chamber of the guinea pig eye, and, if growth occurred, to compare the tumor's behaviour with that of growths of the above mentioned etiology. Forty-three full-grown guinea pigs from mixed stocks were used throughout, and seventy-eight heterologous transplantation experiments were performed. The grafts measuring less than 2 mm. in diameter were cut from the subcutaneous tissue in skin lesions of rabbits with infectious myxomatosis recently killed. The transfer to the anterior chamber was performed after the usual technique. Some degree of partial survival was found in 23,8% of the grafts, in which typical myxoma cells could be demonstrated fifteen days after the transplantation. The transplant apparently does not increase in size, differing in that respect from that of the Rous chicken sarcoma, which increases in size by 2 or 3 diameters in 2 weeks (Shrigley, Greene & Duran-Reynals, 1945). The virus was still alive in 26% of the grafts 21 days after transplantation, and was able to induce a typical disease when injected to normal rabbits. No alteration in the properties of the virus after growth in the guinea pig was noticed, and this also is different from what happens with the Rous chicken sarcoma.

Venture capital meets contract theory: risky claims or formal control?

This paper develops a theory of the joint allocation of formal control and cash-flow rights in venture capital deals. We argue that when the need for investor support calls for very high-powered outside claims, entrepreneurs should optimally retain formal control in order to avoid excessive interference. Hence, we predict that risky claims should be be negatively correlated to control rights, both along the life of a start-up and across deals. This challenges the idea that risky claims should a ways be associated to more formal control, and is in line with contractual terms increasingly used in venture capital, in corporate venturing and in partnership deals between biotech start-ups and large drug companies. The paper provides a theoretical explanation to some puzzling evidence documented in Gompers (1997) and Kaplan and Stromberg (2000), namely the inclusion in venture capital contracts of contingencies that trigger both a reduction in VC control and the conversion! of her preferred stocks into common stocks.

Reproductive isolation between different forms of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva), (Diptera: Psychodidae), the vector of Leishmania donovani chagasi Cunha & Chagas and its significance to kala-azar distribution in South America

The males of the sandfly Lutzomyia longipalpis occur in two forms, one which bears a single pair of pale spots on tergite 4 and another in which an additional pair of spots characterizes tergite 3. In crosses between laboratory reared stocks of the two forms originating from allopatric and sympatric sites in Brazil nearly all males of one form fail to inseminate females of the other. In addition, insemination failure between some allopatric populaytions of Lu. longipalpis with similar tergal spot patterns is recorded, indicating the existence of additional forms in an apparent species complex. The possibility that Lu. longipalpis sensu latu represents more than a single taxon is discussed and the relevance of these findings to future epidemiological studies on kala-azar is considered.

Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: clinical, parasitological, therapeutical and epidemiological findings (1977-1983)

Forty dogs from the periphery of the city of Rio de Janeiro were studied. All dogs where diagnosed as positive for leishmaniasis either parasitologically and/or serologically. Among them, 19 came from areas where only Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) occurs (Realengo, Bangu, Senador Camará). Clinical signs of the disease were seen in 36.8% of the cases, including emaciation - 100%, lymphadenopathy and depilation - 85.7%. The other 21 dogs came from an area (Campo Grande) where both diseases (VL, and American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis - ACL) occur. Clinical signs of the disease, mainly cutaneous or mucocutaneous ulcers were seen in 76.2% of the cases. Leishmania parasites were found in 39 cases: 22% in viscera, 42.5% in viscera and normal skin and 35% in cutaneous or mucocutaneous ulcers. All the Leishmania stocks isolated from dogs which came from Realengo, Bangu, Senador Camará (VL area), and from Campo Grande (VL + ACL area) were characterized as L. donovani (except in one case) according to their schizodeme, zymodeme and serodeme. The only stock characterized as L. b. braziliensis, was isolated from the lymph node of a dog from Campo Grande with visceral disease and without skin lesions. Antimony therapy attempted in eight Leishmania donovani positive dogs was unsuccessful.

Flagellates in the Malpighian tubules of laboratory-bred Lutzomyia longipalpis fed on a hamster experimentally infected with Leishmania mexicana amazonensis

As a preparatory stage for a study aiming at identifying the species and subspecies of local Leishmania in naturally infected sandflies through immunoradiometric assay with monoclonal antibodies, we tried to obtain experimental infections of phlebotomines with well characterized stocks of parasites, in order to test the effectiveness of the method.

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models