Spatiotemporal analysis of forensic case data: a visualisation approach

Whether for investigative or intelligence aims, crime analysts often face up the necessity to analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of crimes or traces left by suspects. This article presents a visualisation methodology supporting recurrent practical analytical tasks such as the detection of crime series or the analysis of traces left by digital devices like mobile phone or GPS devices. The proposed approach has led to the development of a dedicated tool that has proven its effectiveness in real inquiries and intelligence practices. It supports a more fluent visual analysis of the collected data and may provide critical clues to support police operations as exemplified by the presented case studies.

Estimating and explaining the effect of education and income on head and neck cancer risk : INHANCE consortium pooled analysis of 31 case-control studies from 27 countries

Low socioeconomic status has been reported to be associated with head and neck cancer risk. However, previous studies have been too small to examine the associations by cancer subsite, age, sex, global region, and calendar time, and to explain the association in terms of behavioural risk factors. Individual participant data of 23,964 cases with head and neck cancer and 31,954 controls from 31 studies in 27 countries pooled with random effects models. Overall, low education was associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer (OR = 2·50; 95%CI 2·02- 3·09). Overall one-third of the increased risk was not explained by differences in the distribution of cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviours; and it remained elevated among never users of tobacco and non-drinkers (OR = 1·61; 95%CI 1·13 - 2·31). More of the estimated education effect was not explained by cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviours: in women than in men, in older than younger groups, in the oropharynx than in other sites, in South/Central America than in Europe/North America, and was strongest in countries with greater income inequality. Similar findings were observed for the estimated effect of low vs high household income. The lowest levels of income and educational attainment were associated with more than 2-fold increased risk of head and neck cancer, which is not entirely explained by differences in the distributions of behavioural risk factors for these cancers, and which varies across cancer sites, sexes, countries, and country income inequality levels. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development of LRFD Procedures for Bridge Pile Foundations in Iowa: Volume II: Field Testing of Steel Piles in Clay, Sand, and Mixed Soils and Data Analysis, September 2011

In response to the mandate on Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) implementations by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) on all new bridge projects initiated after October 1, 2007, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) sponsored these research projects to develop regional LRFD recommendations. The LRFD development was performed using the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) Pile Load Test database (PILOT). To increase the data points for LRFD development, develop LRFD recommendations for dynamic methods, and validate the results ofLRFD calibration, 10 full-scale field tests on the most commonly used steel H-piles (e.g., HP 10 x 42) were conducted throughout Iowa. Detailed in situ soil investigations were carried out, push-in pressure cells were installed, and laboratory soil tests were performed. Pile responses during driving, at the end of driving (EOD), and at re-strikes were monitored using the Pile Driving Analyzer (PDA), following with the CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program (CAPWAP) analysis. The hammer blow counts were recorded for Wave Equation Analysis Program (WEAP) and dynamic formulas. Static load tests (SLTs) were performed and the pile capacities were determined based on the Davisson’s criteria. The extensive experimental research studies generated important data for analytical and computational investigations. The SLT measured loaddisplacements were compared with the simulated results obtained using a model of the TZPILE program and using the modified borehole shear test method. Two analytical pile setup quantification methods, in terms of soil properties, were developed and validated. A new calibration procedure was developed to incorporate pile setup into LRFD.

Paralyzed neonatal larynx in adduction. Case series, systematic review and analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Bilateral vocal cord abductor paralysis (BVCAbP) is considered a rare cause of stridor in the newborn. The goal of this work is to present a case series and to review systematically the literature on bilateral vocal cord abductor paralysis in the newborn to better characterize the current knowledge on this entity. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review with Medline (1950-2011). The authors screened all cases of BVCAbP reported and selected those affecting newborns. RESULTS: Out of the 129 articles screened, 16 were included. A total of 69 cases could be retrieved and analyzed. Associated co-morbidities were found in 54% of the patients, most notably malformative conditions (intracranial or other), or a positive perinatal history (trauma/asphyxia, prematurity). Tracheostomy placement was required in 59% of children, and of these 44% were successfully decannulated. In terms of functional outcome full recovery or improvement were seen in 61% of patients. Major underlying co-morbidities affected negatively the functional outcome (p=.004), but not the need for tracheostomy (p=.604) or the decannulation success rate (p=.063). CONCLUSION: BVCAbP in the newborn is a serious cause of airway obstruction. It can be seen either in a context of multisystem anomalies or as an isolated finding. Newborns with major co-morbidities affecting their normal development are more likely to have poor functional outcomes and to remain tracheostomy-dependant.

A first-principles analysis of the magnetism of CuII polynuclear coordination complexes: the case of [Cu4(bpy)4(aspartate)2(H2O)3](ClO4)4·2.5H2O

The magnetic structure of the [Cu4(bpy)4(aspartate)2(H2O)3](ClO4)4·2.5 H2Ocrystal - using fractional coordinates determined at room-temperature ¿ has beenanalysed in detail. This analysis has been carried out by extending our first principlesbottom-up theoretical approach, which was initially designed to study through-spacemagnetic interactions, to handle through-bond magnetic interactions. The only input datarequired by this approach are the values of the computed JAB exchange parameters for allthe unique pairs of spin-containing centres. The results allow the magnetic structure ofthe crystal, which presents two types of isolated tetranuclear CuII clusters, to be definedin quantitative terms. Each of these clusters presents ferro and antiferromagneticinteractions, the former being stronger, although outnumbered by the latter. Thecomputed magnetic susceptibility curve shows the same qualitative features as theexperimental data. However, there are small differences that are presumed to beassociated with the use of room-temperature crystal coordinates.

A first-principles analysis of the magnetism of CuII polynuclear coordination complexes: the case of [Cu4(bpy)4(aspartate)2(H2O)3](ClO4)4·2.5H2O

The magnetic structure of the [Cu4(bpy)4(aspartate)2(H2O)3](ClO4)4·2.5 H2Ocrystal - using fractional coordinates determined at room-temperature ¿ has beenanalysed in detail. This analysis has been carried out by extending our first principlesbottom-up theoretical approach, which was initially designed to study through-spacemagnetic interactions, to handle through-bond magnetic interactions. The only input datarequired by this approach are the values of the computed JAB exchange parameters for allthe unique pairs of spin-containing centres. The results allow the magnetic structure ofthe crystal, which presents two types of isolated tetranuclear CuII clusters, to be definedin quantitative terms. Each of these clusters presents ferro and antiferromagneticinteractions, the former being stronger, although outnumbered by the latter. Thecomputed magnetic susceptibility curve shows the same qualitative features as theexperimental data. However, there are small differences that are presumed to beassociated with the use of room-temperature crystal coordinates.

An Analysis of OWI Arrests and Convictions in Iowa, 2011

The primary goal of the project was to document the demographic profile of OWI offenders in Iowa. The study is based on both aggregate and case-level data. The case level data produced a final sample of 118,675 OWI convictions. That occurred from 2000 through 2009. The great majority of convicted offenders were White males. From 2000 through 2009 the percentage of convictions received by women increased by 34%. Defendants’ average age of was 30 years old, and the age cohorts of 15 to 24, 25 to 34, and 34 to 45 were overrepresented among convicted offenders. Whites were underrepresented among OWI defendants. African Americans, Hispanics and Native Americans were overrepresented. From 2000 through 2009, the percentage of aggravated misdemeanor felony OWI convictions received by Hispanics and African Americans increased significantly. The percentage of OWI convictions received by women and African Americans increased significantly after implementation of the .08 BAC law. We did not find convincing evidence of a direct relationship between enforcement trends and the alcohol related traffic fatalities (ARTFs). However, the ten year Iowa conviction trends did provide evidence of a conviction lag effect on Iowa’s ARTFs. The research findings established the basis for a phase two project that would assess the efficacy of OWI sentencing practices in Iowa.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of immune-modulating nutritional support for gastrointestinal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Immune-modulating nutritional formula containing arginine, omega-3 fatty acids and nucleotides has been demonstrated to decrease complications and length of stay in surgical patients. This study aims at assessing the impact of immune-modulating formula on hospital costs in gastrointestinal cancer surgical patients in Switzerland. METHOD: Based on a previously published meta-analysis, the relative risks of overall and infectious complications with immune-modulating versus standard nutrition formula were computed. Swiss hospital costs of patients undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery were retrieved. A method was developed to compute the patients' severity level, not taking into account the complications from the surgery. Incremental costs of complications were computed for both treatment groups, and sensitivity analyses were carried out. RESULTS: Relative risk of complications with pre-, peri- and post-operative use of immune-modulating formula was 0.69 (95%CI 0.58-0.83), 0.62 (95%CI 0.53-0.73) and 0.73 (95%CI 0.35-0.96) respectively. The estimated average contribution of complications to the cost of stay was CHF 14,949 (euro10,901) per patient (95%CI 10,712-19,186), independently of case's severity. Based on this cost, immune-modulating nutritional support decreased costs of hospital stay by CHF 1638 to CHF 2488 per patient (euro1195-euro1814). Net hospital savings were present for baseline complications rates as low as 5%. CONCLUSION: Immune-modulating nutritional solution is a cost-saving intervention in gastrointestinal cancer patients. The additional cost of immune-modulating formula are more than offset by savings associated with decreased treatment of complications.

Multiple Kernel Learning of Environmental Data. Case study: Analysis and Mapping of Wind Fields

The paper presents the Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) approach as a modelling and data exploratory tool and applies it to the problem of wind speed mapping. Support Vector Regression (SVR) is used to predict spatial variations of the mean wind speed from terrain features (slopes, terrain curvature, directional derivatives) generated at different spatial scales. Multiple Kernel Learning is applied to learn kernels for individual features and thematic feature subsets, both in the context of feature selection and optimal parameters determination. An empirical study on real-life data confirms the usefulness of MKL as a tool that enhances the interpretability of data-driven models.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Factors affecting visual analysis in single-case designs

Visual inspection remains the most frequently applied method for detecting treatment effects in single-case designs. The advantages and limitations of visual inference are here discussed in relation to other procedures for assessing intervention effectiveness. The first part of the paper reviews previous research on visual analysis, paying special attention to the validation of visual analysts" decisions, inter-judge agreement, and false alarm and omission rates. The most relevant factors affecting visual inspection (i.e., effect size, autocorrelation, data variability, and analysts" expertise) are highlighted and incorporated into an empirical simulation study with the aim of providing further evidence about the reliability of visual analysis. Our results concur with previous studies that have reported the relationship between serial dependence and increased Type I rates. Participants with greater experience appeared to be more conservative and used more consistent criteria when assessing graphed data. Nonetheless, the decisions made by both professionals and students did not match sufficiently the simulated data features, and we also found low intra-judge agreement, thus suggesting that visual inspection should be complemented by other methods when assessing treatment effectiveness.

Using plan analysis in psychotherapeutic case formulation of borderline personality disorder.

A comprehensive understanding of the patient's problems is essential for a constructive therapeutic behaviour, especially in borderline personality disorder (BPD) where difficult interpersonal patterns are persistent. In these circumstances, the use of an integrative case formulation approach such as Plan Analysis, developed by K. Grawe and F. Caspar, can be of help for therapy planning. The focus here is on instrumental relations between behaviours and the hypothetical Plans and motives 'behind' those behaviours. The present qualitative study aimed at setting a prototypical Plan structure for n = 15 patients presenting a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, diagnosis of BPD using Plan Analysis. The first psychotherapeutic session of every outpatient was video-taped and evaluated according to the Plan Analysis procedure. Inter-rater reliability was established between two independent raters and was considered sufficient. The detailed prototypical Plan structure of BPD showed two main tendencies: first, the important presence of support-seeking among these patients and second, the will to be in control and to protect oneself. This study confirms the existence of several core similarities in the functioning of patients with BPD. These findings are in line with earlier studies and expand the latter with the aim of contributing to the understanding of BPD psychopathology. Clinical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY PRACTITIONER MESSAGE: Plan Analysis can especially be of help with patients who have difficult interpersonal patterns, as those presenting with BPD. Two tendencies were found within BPD patients: (1) support-seeking and (2) control and self-protecting Plans. Further research using Plan Analysis should focus on the identification and detail of emotions within BPD.

The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Gas analysis of exhumed cadavers buried for 30 years: a case report about long time alteration.

Due to important alteration caused by long time decomposition, the gases in human bodies buried for more than a year have not been investigated. For the first time, the results of gas analysis sampled from bodies recently exhumed after 30 years are presented. Adipocere formation has prevented the bodies from too important alteration, and gaseous areas were identified. The sampling was performed with airtight syringes assisted by multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) in those specific areas. The important amount of methane (CH4), coupled to weak amounts of hydrogen (H2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), usual gaseous alteration indicators, have permitted to confirm methanogenesis mechanism for long period of alteration. H2 and CO2 produced during the first stages of the alteration process were consumed through anaerobic oxidation by methanogenic bacteria, generating CH4.