819 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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L'épidémie de l'infection au virus de l'immunodéficience humaine (VIH) constitue une crise majeure en santé publique de nos jours. Les efforts de la communauté internationale visent à rendre les traitements antirétroviraux (TARV) plus accessibles aux personnes vivant avec le VIH, particulièrement dans les contextes à ressources limitées. Une observance quasi-parfaite aux TARV est requise pour tirer le maximum de bénéfices thérapeutiques à l'échelle individuelle et à l'échelle populationnelle. Cependant, l’accroissement de la disponibilité des TARV s'effectue dans des pays africains qui disposent de systèmes de santé fragiles et sous-financés. Ceux-ci souffrent également d'une pénurie de personnel de santé, lequel joue un rôle central dans la mise en oeuvre et la pérennité des interventions, notamment celle du soutien à l'observance thérapeutique. La présente étude ethnographique relate l'expérience de personnel de santé dans la fourniture des services de soutien à l'observance dans un contexte de ressources limitées et d'accroissement de l'accès aux TARV. L'étude a été menée dans deux centres hospitaliers de la capitale du Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou. Trois conclusions principales sont mises au jour. Tout d'abord, une bonne organisation – tant logistique que matérielle – dans la provision de services de soutien à l'observance est capitale. L’infrastructure d’observance doit aller au-delà des unités de prise en charge et s’intégrer au sein du système de santé pour assurer un impact durable. De plus, la provision des TARV dans le cadre d'une prise en charge médicale exhaustive est essentielle pour un soutien à l'observance efficace. Ceci implique la présence de professionnelles de santé en nombre suffisant et disposant d‘outils pour soutenir leur pratique clinique (tests de laboratoire, traitements pour infections opportunistes), ainsi que des mécanismes pour leur permettre d’aider les patients à gérer la vie quotidienne (gratuité des services, programmes d’alphabétisation et soutien psychosociale). Enfin, une amélioration de la coordination des programmes VIH au niveau national et international est nécessaire pour assurer une prise en charge cohérente au niveau local. La programmation conçue dans les pays étrangers qui est incomplète et de courte durée a un impact majeur sur la disponibilité de ressources humaines et matérielles à long terme, ainsi que sur les conditions de travail et de prestation de services dans les unités de soins.

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La recherche sur l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche (CIR) est en pleine expansion. Plusieurs études ont montré que l’utilisation des CIR contribue à améliorer la réussite scolaire des élèves. Toutefois, il semble que les enseignants les utilisent très peu. Pour améliorer cette utilisation, il est nécessaire de développer un modèle explicatif de l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche. Ce modèle permet de rendre compte des mécanismes menant à l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche en milieu de pratique. Il permet également de mettre en évidence les facteurs les plus influents et l’agencement de ces différents facteurs dans le but de favoriser une meilleure utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche. Ce dernier aspect constitue l’objectif principal de cette thèse pour le domaine spécifique de l’éducation. Pour ce faire, un questionnaire sur l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche (QUC) est validé et un modèle est proposé. Le premier article de la thèse examine la fiabilité, la validité et la structure factorielle du QUC avec un échantillon francophone et anglophone d’un milieu défavorisé. Le QUC, composé de 43 items, mesure six dimensions, soit : l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche, le contexte organisationnel, la stratégie de soutien, l’opinion des utilisateurs et leur expertise ainsi que la fréquence d’accès aux sources des connaissances issues de la recherche. Au total, 2270 enseignants ont complété le questionnaire. Les résultats des différentes analyses montrent que le QUC doit être réduit à 20 items regroupés en cinq facteurs : l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche, l’opinion des utilisateurs, la stratégie de soutien, l’expertise des utilisateurs et les facteurs organisationnels. Le second article de cette thèse examine quel modèle permet de mieux expliquer l’utilisation des CIR. Pour ce faire, deux modèles sont testés avec le même échantillon que dans le premier article, soit un modèle de liens directs et un modèle avec médiation. Pour le premier modèle, un lien direct entre l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche et les facteurs qui favorisent cette utilisation est postulé : l’expertise, l’opinion, la stratégie de soutien et le facteur organisationnel auront des liens directs avec l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche. Le second modèle (modèle avec médiation) se base quant à lui sur les théories de l’action raisonnée et du comportement planifié et postule que le lien entre les facteurs et l’utilisation n’est pas direct; certains facteurs ont des effets directs et d’autres des effets indirects. Concrètement, ce second modèle postule que l’expertise et l’opinion agissent comme médiateurs entre, d’une part, les deux variables indépendantes (le facteur organisationnel et la stratégie de soutien), et, d’autre part, la variable dépendante (l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche). Les résultats des analyses montrent que le modèle avec médiation permet de mieux comprendre l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche. Cette étude a permis de valider un questionnaire sur l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche et aboutit à la proposition d’un modèle qui permet d’expliquer l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche spécialement conçu pour le domaine de l’éducation. Elle fournit des outils (un questionnaire validé et un modèle) qui permettent de mieux cerner le paradigme de l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche, ce qui pourrait favoriser une plus grande utilisation des CIR par les intervenants scolaires. En effet, les résultats de cette recherche peuvent guider les décideurs dans l’implantation des programmes menant à l’utilisation des connaissances issues de la recherche qui s’adressent aux enseignants. Ces résultats indiquent sur quels facteurs agir en premier lieu afin d’améliorer l’utilisation des CIR chez les enseignants du secondaire dans les milieux défavorisés. Le présent modèle pourrait être utilisé dans d’autres milieux scolaires (par exemple les milieux non défavorisés ou les milieux scolaires primaires) après validation.

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L’évolution récente des commutateurs de sélection de longueurs d’onde (WSS -Wavelength Selective Switch) favorise le développement du multiplexeur optique d’insertionextraction reconfigurable (ROADM - Reconfigurable Optical Add/Drop Multiplexers) à plusieurs degrés sans orientation ni coloration, considéré comme un équipement fort prometteur pour les réseaux maillés du futur relativement au multiplexage en longueur d’onde (WDM -Wavelength Division Multiplexing ). Cependant, leur propriété de commutation asymétrique complique la question de l’acheminement et de l’attribution des longueur d’ondes (RWA - Routing andWavelength Assignment). Or la plupart des algorithmes de RWA existants ne tiennent pas compte de cette propriété d’asymétrie. L’interruption des services causée par des défauts d’équipements sur les chemins optiques (résultat provenant de la résolution du problème RWA) a pour conséquence la perte d’une grande quantité de données. Les recherches deviennent ainsi incontournables afin d’assurer la survie fonctionnelle des réseaux optiques, à savoir, le maintien des services, en particulier en cas de pannes d’équipement. La plupart des publications antérieures portaient particulièrement sur l’utilisation d’un système de protection permettant de garantir le reroutage du trafic en cas d’un défaut d’un lien. Cependant, la conception de la protection contre le défaut d’un lien ne s’avère pas toujours suffisante en termes de survie des réseaux WDM à partir de nombreux cas des autres types de pannes devenant courant de nos jours, tels que les bris d’équipements, les pannes de deux ou trois liens, etc. En outre, il y a des défis considérables pour protéger les grands réseaux optiques multidomaines composés de réseaux associés à un domaine simple, interconnectés par des liens interdomaines, où les détails topologiques internes d’un domaine ne sont généralement pas partagés à l’extérieur. La présente thèse a pour objectif de proposer des modèles d’optimisation de grande taille et des solutions aux problèmes mentionnés ci-dessus. Ces modèles-ci permettent de générer des solutions optimales ou quasi-optimales avec des écarts d’optimalité mathématiquement prouvée. Pour ce faire, nous avons recours à la technique de génération de colonnes afin de résoudre les problèmes inhérents à la programmation linéaire de grande envergure. Concernant la question de l’approvisionnement dans les réseaux optiques, nous proposons un nouveau modèle de programmation linéaire en nombres entiers (ILP - Integer Linear Programming) au problème RWA afin de maximiser le nombre de requêtes acceptées (GoS - Grade of Service). Le modèle résultant constitue celui de l’optimisation d’un ILP de grande taille, ce qui permet d’obtenir la solution exacte des instances RWA assez grandes, en supposant que tous les noeuds soient asymétriques et accompagnés d’une matrice de connectivité de commutation donnée. Ensuite, nous modifions le modèle et proposons une solution au problème RWA afin de trouver la meilleure matrice de commutation pour un nombre donné de ports et de connexions de commutation, tout en satisfaisant/maximisant la qualité d’écoulement du trafic GoS. Relativement à la protection des réseaux d’un domaine simple, nous proposons des solutions favorisant la protection contre les pannes multiples. En effet, nous développons la protection d’un réseau d’un domaine simple contre des pannes multiples, en utilisant les p-cycles de protection avec un chemin indépendant des pannes (FIPP - Failure Independent Path Protecting) et de la protection avec un chemin dépendant des pannes (FDPP - Failure Dependent Path-Protecting). Nous proposons ensuite une nouvelle formulation en termes de modèles de flots pour les p-cycles FDPP soumis à des pannes multiples. Le nouveau modèle soulève un problème de taille, qui a un nombre exponentiel de contraintes en raison de certaines contraintes d’élimination de sous-tour. Par conséquent, afin de résoudre efficacement ce problème, on examine : (i) une décomposition hiérarchique du problème auxiliaire dans le modèle de décomposition, (ii) des heuristiques pour gérer efficacement le grand nombre de contraintes. À propos de la protection dans les réseaux multidomaines, nous proposons des systèmes de protection contre les pannes d’un lien. Tout d’abord, un modèle d’optimisation est proposé pour un système de protection centralisée, en supposant que la gestion du réseau soit au courant de tous les détails des topologies physiques des domaines. Nous proposons ensuite un modèle distribué de l’optimisation de la protection dans les réseaux optiques multidomaines, une formulation beaucoup plus réaliste car elle est basée sur l’hypothèse d’une gestion de réseau distribué. Ensuite, nous ajoutons une bande pasiv sante partagée afin de réduire le coût de la protection. Plus précisément, la bande passante de chaque lien intra-domaine est partagée entre les p-cycles FIPP et les p-cycles dans une première étude, puis entre les chemins pour lien/chemin de protection dans une deuxième étude. Enfin, nous recommandons des stratégies parallèles aux solutions de grands réseaux optiques multidomaines. Les résultats de l’étude permettent d’élaborer une conception efficace d’un système de protection pour un très large réseau multidomaine (45 domaines), le plus large examiné dans la littérature, avec un système à la fois centralisé et distribué.

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The purpose of this paper is to describe the design and development of a digital library at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), India, using DSpace open source software. The study covers the structure, contents and usage of CUSAT digital library. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines the possibilities of applying open source in libraries. An evaluative approach is carried out to explore the features of the CUSAT digital library. The Google Analytics service is employed to measure the amount of use of digital library by users across the world. Findings – CUSAT has successfully applied DSpace open source software for building a digital library. The digital library has had visits from 78 countries, with the major share from India. The distribution of documents in the digital library is uneven. Past exam question papers share the major part of the collection. The number of research papers, articles and rare documents is less. Originality/value – The study is the first of its type that tries to understand digital library design and development using DSpace open source software in a university environment with a focus on the analysis of distribution of items and measuring the value by usage statistics employing the Google Analytics service. The digital library model can be useful for designing similar systems

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The regional population growth in West Africa, and especially its urban centers, will bring about new and critical challenges for urban development policy, especially in terms of ensuring food security and providing employment for the growing population. (Peri-) urban livestock and vegetable production systems, which can contribute significantly to these endeavours, are limited by various constraints, amongst them limited access to expensive production factors and their (in)efficient use. To achieve sustainable production systems with low consumer health risks, that can meet the urban increased demand, this doctoral thesis determined nutrient use efficiencies in representative (peri-) urban livestock production systems in three West African cities, and investigated potential health risks for consumers ensuing from there. The field study, which was conducted during July 2007 to December 2009, undertook a comparative analysis of (peri-) urban livestock production strategies across 210 livestock keeping households (HH) in the three West African cities of Kano/Nigeria (84 HH), Bobo Dioulasso/Burkina Faso (63 HH) and Sikasso/Mali (63 HH). These livestock enterprises were belonging to the following three farm types: commercial gardening plus field crops and livestock (cGCL; 88 HH), commercial livestock plus subsistence field cropping (cLsC; 109 HH) and commercial gardening plus semi-commercial livestock (cGscL; 13 HH) which had been classified in a preceding study; they represented the diversity of (peri-) urban livestock production systems in West Africa. In the study on the efficiency of ruminant livestock production, lactating cowsand sheep herd units were differentiated based on whether feed supplements were offered to the animals at the homestead (Go: grazing only; Gsf: mainly grazing plus some supplement feeding). Inflows and outflows of nutrients were quantified in these herds during 18 months, and the effects of seasonal variations in nutrient availability on animals’ productivity and reproductive performance was determined in Sikasso. To assess the safety of animal products and vegetables, contamination sources of irrigated lettuce and milk with microbiological contaminants, and of tomato and cabbage with pesticide residues in (peri-) urban agriculture systems of Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso were characterized at three occasions in 2009. Samples of irrigation water, organic fertilizer and ix lettuce were collected in 6 gardens, and samples of cabbage and tomato in 12 gardens; raw and curdled milk were sampled in 6 dairy herds. Information on health risks for consumers of such foodstuffs was obtained from 11 health centers in Sikasso. In (peri-) urban livestock production systems, sheep and goats dominated (P<0.001) in Kano compared to Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso, while cattle and poultry were more frequent (P<0.001) in Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso than in Kano. Across cities, ruminant feeding relied on grazing and homestead supplementation with fresh grasses, crop residues, cereal brans and cotton seed cake; cereal grains and brans were the major ingredients of poultry feeds. There was little association of gardens and livestock; likewise field cropping and livestock were rarely integrated. No relation existed between the education of the HH head and the adoption of improved management practices (P>0.05), but the proportion of HH heads with a long-term experience in (peri-) urban agriculture was higher in Kano and in Bobo Dioulasso than in Sikasso (P<0.001). Cattle and sheep fetched highest market prices in Kano; unit prices for goats and chicken were highest in Sikasso. Animal inflow, outflow and dairy herd growth rates were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the Gsf than in the Go cattle herds. Maize bran and cottonseed expeller were the main feeds offered to Gsf cows as dry-season supplement, while Gsf sheep received maize bran, fresh grasses and cowpea pods. The short periodic transhumance of Go dairy cows help them maintaining their live weight, whereas Gsf cows lost weight during the dry season despite supplement feeding at a rate of 1506 g dry matter per cow and day, resulting in low productivity and reproductive performance. The daily live weight gains of calves and lambs, respectively, were low and not significantly different between the Go and the Gsf system. However, the average live weight gains of lambs were significantly higher in the dry season (P<0.05) than in the rainy season because of the high pressure of gastrointestinal parasites and of Trypanosoma sp. In consequence, 47% of the sheep leaving the Go and Gsf herds died due to diseases during the study period. Thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli contamination levels of irrigation water significantly exceeded WHO recommendations for the unrestricted irrigation of vegetables consumed raw. Microbial contamination levels of lettuce at the farm gate and the market place in Bobo Dioulasso and at the farm gate in Sikasso were higher than at the market place in Sikasso (P<0.05). Pesticide residues were detected in only one cabbage and one tomato sample and were below the maximum residue limit for consumption. Counts of thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli were higher in curdled than in raw milk (P<0.05). From 2006 to x 2009, cases of diarrhea/vomiting and typhoid fever had increased by 11% and 48%, respectively, in Sikasso. For ensuring economically successful and ecologically viable (peri-) urban livestock husbandry and food safety of (peri-) urban foodstuffs of animal and plant origin, the dissemination and adoption of improved feeding practices, livestock healthcare and dung management are key. In addition, measures fostering the safety of animal products and vegetables including the appropriate use of wastewater in (peri-) urban agriculture, restriction to approve vegetable pesticides and the respect of their latency periods, and passing and enforcement of safety laws is required. Finally, the incorporation of environmentally sound (peri-) urban agriculture in urban planning by policy makers, public and private extension agencies and the urban farmers themselves is of utmost importance. To enable an efficient (peri-) urban livestock production in the future, research should concentrate on cost-effective feeding systems that allow meeting the animals’ requirement for production and reproduction. Thereby focus should be laid on the use of crop-residues and leguminous forages. The improvement of the milk production potential through crossbreeding of local cattle breeds with exotic breeds known for their high milk yield might be an accompanying option, but it needs careful supervision to prevent the loss of the local trypanotolerant purebreds.

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La optimización de sistemas y modelos se ha convertido en uno de los factores más importantes a la hora de buscar la mayor eficiencia de un proceso. Este concepto no es ajeno al transporte escolar, ambiente que cambia constantemente al ritmo de las necesidades de sus clientes, y que responde ante una fuerte responsabilidad frente a sus usuarios, los niños que hacen uso del servicio, en cuanto al cumplimiento de tiempos y seguridad, mientras busca constantemente la reducción de costos. Este proyecto expone las problemáticas presentadas en The English School en esta área y propone un modelo de optimización simple que permitirá notables mejoras en términos de tiempos y costos, de tal forma que genere beneficios para la institución en términos financieros y de satisfacción al cliente. Por medio de la implementación de este modelo será posible identificar errores comunes del proceso, se identificarán soluciones prácticas de fácil aplicación en el manejo del transporte y se presentarán los resultados obtenidos en la muestra utilizada para desarrollar el proyecto.

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The community pharmacy service medicines use review (MUR) was introduced in 2005 ‘to improve patient knowledge, concordance and use of medicines’ through a private patient–pharmacist consultation. The MUR presents a fundamental change in community pharmacy service provision. While traditionally pharmacists are dispensers of medicines and providers of medicines advice, and patients as recipients, the MUR considers pharmacists providing consultation-type activities and patients as active participants. The MUR facilitates a two-way discussion about medicines use. Traditional patient–pharmacist behaviours transform into a new set of behaviours involving the booking of appointments, consultation processes and form completion, and the physical environment of the patient–pharmacist interaction moves from the traditional setting of the dispensary and medicines counter to a private consultation room. Thus, the new service challenges traditional identities and behaviours of the patient and the pharmacist as well as the environment in which the interaction takes place. In 2008, the UK government concluded there is at present too much emphasis on the quantity of MURs rather than on their quality.[1] A number of plans to remedy the perceived imbalance included a suggestion to reward ‘health outcomes’ achieved, with calls for a more focussed and scientific approach to the evaluation of pharmacy services using outcomes research. Specifically, the UK government set out the main principal research areas for the evaluation of pharmacy services to include ‘patient and public perceptions and satisfaction’as well as ‘impact on care and outcomes’. A limited number of ‘patient satisfaction with pharmacy services’ type questionnaires are available, of varying quality, measuring dimensions relating to pharmacists’ technical competence, behavioural impressions and general satisfaction. For example, an often cited paper by Larson[2] uses two factors to measure satisfaction, namely ‘friendly explanation’ and ‘managing therapy’; the factors are highly interrelated and the questions somewhat awkwardly phrased, but more importantly, we believe the questionnaire excludes some specific domains unique to the MUR. By conducting patient interviews with recent MUR recipients, we have been working to identify relevant concepts and develop a conceptual framework to inform item development for a Patient Reported Outcome Measure questionnaire bespoke to the MUR. We note with interest the recent launch of a multidisciplinary audit template by the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (RPSGB) in an attempt to review the effectiveness of MURs and improve their quality.[3] This template includes an MUR ‘patient survey’. We will discuss this ‘patient survey’ in light of our work and existing patient satisfaction with pharmacy questionnaires, outlining a new conceptual framework as a basis for measuring patient satisfaction with the MUR. Ethical approval for the study was obtained from the NHS Surrey Research Ethics Committee on 2 June 2008. References 1. Department of Health (2008). Pharmacy in England: Building on Strengths – Delivering the Future. London: HMSO. www. official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm73/7341/7341.pdf (accessed 29 September 2009). 2. Larson LN et al. Patient satisfaction with pharmaceutical care: update of a validated instrument. JAmPharmAssoc 2002; 42: 44–50. 3. Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (2009). Pharmacy Medicines Use Review – Patient Audit. London: RPSGB. http:// qi4pd.org.uk/index.php/Medicines-Use-Review-Patient-Audit. html (accessed 29 September 2009).

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The regional population of the Grey-headed Fish-Eagle (Ichthyophaga ichthyaetus) in Southeast Asia is thought to be in recent decline and its conservation status Linder threat. We undertook a systematic survey in a flooded swamp forest at the Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia and recorded 32 pairs of eagles in an area of approximately 80 km(2). Three species of water snakes were identified as eagle prey items, previously unrecorded for this species. We suggest that this eagle population has significant regional importance and discuss potential anthropogenic threats to population stability, such as water snake harvesting and construction Of upstream hydropower dams.

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Firms form consortia in order to win contracts. Once a project has been awarded to a consortium each member then concentrates on his or her own contract with the client. Therefore, consortia are marketing devices, which present the impression of teamworking, but the production process is just as fragmented as under conventional procurement methods. In this way, the consortium forms a barrier between the client and the actual construction production process. Firms form consortia, not as a simple development of normal ways of working, but because the circumstances for specific projects make it a necessary vehicle. These circumstances include projects that are too large or too complex to undertake alone or projects that require on-going services which cannot be provided by the individual firms inhouse. It is not a preferred way of working, because participants carry extra risk in the form of liability for the actions of their partners in the consortium. The behaviour of members of consortia is determined by their relative power, based on several factors, including financial commitment and ease of replacement. The level of supply chain visibility to the public sector client and to the industry is reduced by the existence of a consortium because the consortium forms an additional obstacle between the client and the firms undertaking the actual construction work. Supply chain visibility matters to the client who otherwise loses control over the process of construction or service provision, while remaining accountable for cost overruns. To overcome this separation there is a convincing argument in favour of adopting the approach put forward in the Project Partnering Contract 2000 (PPC2000) Agreement. Members of consortia do not necessarily go on to work in the same consortia again because members need to respond flexibly to opportunities as and when they arise. Decision-making processes within consortia tend to be on an ad hoc basis. Construction risk is taken by the contractor and the construction supply chain but the reputational risk is carried by all the firms associated with a consortium. There is a wide variation in the manner that consortia are formed, determined by the individual circumstances of each project; its requirements, size and complexity, and the attitude of individual project leaders. However, there are a number of close working relationships based on generic models of consortia-like arrangements for the purpose of building production, such as the Housing Corporation Guidance Notes and the PPC2000.

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Given the paucity of research in this area, the primary aim of this study was to explore how parents of infants with unclear sex at birth made sense of 'intersex'. Qualitative methods were, used (semi-structured interviews, interpretative phenomenological analysis) with 10 parents to generate pertinent themes and provide ideas for further research. Our analysis highlights the fundamental shock engendered by the uncertain sex status of children, and documents parental struggles to negotiate a coherent sex identity for their children. Findings are discussed in light of the rigid two-sex system which pervades medicine and everyday life, and we argue that greater understanding of the complexity of sex and gender is required in order to facilitate better service provision and, ultimately, greater informed consent and parental participation regarding decisions about their children's status.

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The aim of this chapter is to examine what the construction sector brings to our understanding of the procurement of complex performance. The chapter is divided into the following parts: fi rst, an overview of the various matters that contribute to the complexity of construction procurement is provided. Second, the most important contractual incentive schemes found in construction contracts are discussed, and this is followed by, third, an examination of the changes associated with the shift towards procuring complex performance (PCP) (service provision). Fourth, the main findings of the authors’ recent research on PCP contracts are summarised, followed by the conclusion. It should be noted that the procurement of services is referred to as ‘PCP’ in this chapter.

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Climate controls upland habitats, soils and their associated ecosystem services; therefore, understanding possible changes in upland climatic conditions can provide a rapid assessment of climatic vulnerability over the next century. We used 3 different climatic indices that were optimised to fit the upland area classified by the EU as a Severely Disadvantaged Area (SDA) 1961–1990. Upland areas within the SDA covered all altitudinal ranges, whereas the maximum altitude of lowland areas outside of the SDA was ca. 300 m. In general, the climatic index based on the ratio between annual accumulated temperature (as a measure of growing season length) and annual precipitation predicted 96% of the SDA mapped area, which was slightly better than those indices based on annual or seasonal water deficit. Overall, all climatic indices showed that upland environments were exposed to some degree of change by 2071–2100 under UKCIP02 climate projections for high and low emissions scenarios. The projected area declined by 13 to 51% across 3 indices for the low emissions scenario and by 24 to 84% for the high emissions scenario. Mean altitude of the upland area increased by +11 to +86 m for the low scenario and +21 to +178 m for the high scenario. Low altitude areas in eastern and southern Great Britain were most vulnerable to change. These projected climatic changes are likely to affect upland habitat composition, long-term soil carbon storage and wider ecosystem service provision, although it is not yet possible to determine the rate at which this might occur.

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Arthropods that have a direct impact on crop production (i.e. pests, natural enemies and pollinators) can be influenced by both local farm management and the context within which the fields occur in the wider landscape. However, the contributions and spatial scales at which these drivers operate and interact are not fully understood, particularly in the developing world. The impact of both local management and landscape context on insect pollinators and natural enemy communities and on their capacity to deliver related ecosystem services to an economically important tropical crop, pigeonpea was investigated. The study was conducted in nine paired farms across a gradient of increasing distance to semi-native vegetation in Kibwezi, Kenya. Results show that proximity of fields to semi-native habitats negatively affected pollinator and chewing insect abundance. Within fields, pesticide use was a key negative predictor of pollinator, pest and foliar active predator abundance. On the contrary, fertilizer application significantly enhanced pollinator and both chewing and sucking insect pest abundance. At a 1 km spatial scale of fields, there were significant negative effects of the number of semi-native habitat patches within fields dominated by mass flowering pigeonpea on pollinators abundance. For service provision, a significant decline in fruit set when insects were excluded from flowers was recorded. This study reveals the interconnections of pollinators, predators and pests with pigeonpea crop. For sustainable yields and to conserve high densities of both pollinators and predators of pests within pigeonpea landscapes, it is crucial to target the adoption of less disruptive farm management practices such as reducing pesticide and fertilizer inputs.

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Livestock keepers comprise 2/3rds of the 2.8 billion households living on less than two dollars per day. However, as a group they tend to be marginalised and excluded from formal service provision, particularly in relation to animal health. Therefore, the following paper describes the development of the Livestock Guru, a multi-media learning programme created to meet the knowledge needs of poor livestock keepers in Tamil Nadu, India. The findings from the study illustrate the importance of both appropriate visuals, voice-overs but also the need for addressing issues in the environment in which learning will take place.

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This paper has two principal aims: first, to unravel some of the arguments mobilized in the controversial privatization debate, and second, to review the scale and nature of private sector provision of water and sanitation in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Despite being vigorously promoted in the policy arena and having been implemented in several countries in the South in the 1990s, privatization has achieved neither the scale nor benefits anticipated. In particular, the paper is pessimistic about the role that privatization can play in achieving the Millennium Development Goals of halving the number of people without access to water and sanitation by 2015. This is not because of some inherent contradiction between private profits and the public good, but because neither publicly nor privately operated utilities are well suited to serving the majority of low-income households with inadequate water and sanitation, and because many of the barriers to service provision in poor settlements can persist whether water and sanitation utilities are publicly or privately operated. This is not to say that well-governed localities should not choose to involve private companies in water and sanitation provision, but it does imply that there is no justification for international agencies and agreements to actively promote greater private sector participation on the grounds that it can significantly reduce deficiencies in water and sanitation services in the South.