824 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model
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The first phase in the sign, development and implementation of a comprehensive computational model of a copper stockpile leach process is presented. The model accounts for transport phenomena through the stockpile, reaction kinetics for the important mineral species, oxgen and bacterial effects on the leach reactions, plus heat, energy and acid balances for the overall leach process. The paper describes the formulation of the leach process model and its implementation in PHYSICA+, a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) software environment. The model draws on a number of phenomena to represent the competing physical and chemical features active in the process model. The phenomena are essentially represented by a three-phased (solid liquid gas) multi-component transport system; novel algorithms and procedures are required to solve the model equations, including a methodology for dealing with multiple chemical species with different reaction rates in ore represented by multiple particle size fractions. Some initial validation results and application simulations are shown to illustrate the potential of the model.
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Hypothetical contingent valuation surveys used to elicit values for environmental and other public goods often employ variants of the referendum mechanism due to the cognitive simplicity and familiarity of respondents with this voting format. One variant, the double referendum mechanism, requires respondents to state twice how they would vote for a given policy proposal given their cost of the good. Data from these surveys often exhibit anomalies inconsistent with standard economic models of consumer preferences. There are a number of published explanations for these anomalies, mostly focusing on problems with the second vote. This article investigates which aspects of the hypothetical task affect the degree of nondemand revelation and takes an individual-based approach to identifying people most likely to non-demand reveal. A clear profile emerges from our model of a person who faces a negative surplus i.e. a net loss in the second vote and invokes non self-interested, non financial motivations during the decision process.
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In this paper, we investigate the remanufacturing problem of pricing single-class used products (cores) in the face of random price-dependent returns and random demand. Specifically, we propose a dynamic pricing policy for the cores and then model the problem as a continuous-time Markov decision process. Our models are designed to address three objectives: finite horizon total cost minimization, infinite horizon discounted cost, and average cost minimization. Besides proving optimal policy uniqueness and establishing monotonicity results for the infinite horizon problem, we also characterize the structures of the optimal policies, which can greatly simplify the computational procedure. Finally, we use computational examples to assess the impacts of specific parameters on optimal price and reveal the benefits of a dynamic pricing policy. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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In remanufacturing, the supply of used products and the demand for remanufactured products are usually mismatched because of the great uncertainties on both sides. In this paper, we propose a dynamic pricing policy to balance this uncertain supply and demand. Specifically, we study a remanufacturer’s problem of pricing a single class of cores with random price-dependent returns and random demand for the remanufactured products with backlogs. We model this pricing task as a continuous-time Markov decision process, which addresses both the finite and infinite horizon problems, and provide managerial insights by analyzing the structural properties of the optimal policy. We then use several computational examples to illustrate the impacts of particular system parameters on pricing policy.
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This article reports results of an experiment designed to analyze the link between risky decisions made by couples and risky decisions made separately by each spouse. We estimate both the spouses and the couples' degrees of risk aversion, we assess how the risk preferences of the two spouses aggregate when they make risky decisions, and we shed light on the dynamics of the decision process that takes place when couples make risky decisions. We find that, far from being fixed, the balance of power within the household is malleable. In most couples, men have, initially, more decision-making power than women but women who ultimately implement the joint decisions gain more and more power over the course of decision making.
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Objective: The primary objective of this study was to examine how the comprehensive nature of the Stress Process Model could elucidate on the stressors associated with caring for a palliative cancer patient. Method: A qualitative research strategy involving home-based face-to-face interviews with 12 bereaved family caregivers was used to examine the caregiving experience. Results: The primary stressors associated with caring for the palliative cancer care patients stemmed from care recipient symptoms and personal care needs. The absence of adequate support from the formal health care delivery system was a consistent message from all participants. There was evidence of financial stress primarily associated with the purchase of private home care to supplement formal care. In contrast, the resources that family caregivers relied on to moderate the stressful effects of caregiving included extended family, friends, and neighbors. While the stress of direct caregiving was high, the study revealed that formal care was also a significant source of stress for family caregivers. Conclusion: It was concluded that an appropriately financed, integrated system of care that followed a person-centered philosophy of care would best meet the needs of the patient and his or her family. © The Author(s) 2010.
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Objectives: Family caregivers play a vital role in maintaining the lives of individuals with advanced illness living in the community. However, the responsibility of caregiving for an end-of-life family member can have profound consequences on the psychological, physical and financial well-being of the caregiver. While the literature has identified caregiver stress or strain as a complex process with multiple contributing factors, few comprehensive studies exist. This study examined a wide range of theory-driven variables contributing to family caregiver stress. Method: Data variables from interviews with primary family caregivers were mapped onto the factors within the Stress Process Model theoretical framework. A hierarchical multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the strongest predictors of caregiver strain as measured by a validated composite index, the Caregiver Strain Index. Results: The study included 132 family caregivers across south-central/western Ontario, Canada. About half of these caregivers experienced high strain, the extent of which was predicted by lower perceived program accessibility, lower functional social support, greater weekly amount of time caregivers committed to the care recipient, younger caregiver age and poorer caregiver self-perceived health. Conclusion: This study examined the influence of a multitude of factors in the Stress Process Model on family caregiver strain, finding stress to be a multidimensional construct. Perceived program accessibility was the strongest predictor of caregiver strain, more so than intensity of care, highlighting the importance of the availability of community resources to support the family caregiving role.
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Due to the variability of wind power, it is imperative to accurately and timely forecast the wind generation to enhance the flexibility and reliability of the operation and control of real-time power. Special events such as ramps, spikes are hard to predict with traditional methods using solely recently measured data. In this paper, a new Gaussian Process model with hybrid training data taken from both the local time and historic dataset is proposed and applied to make short-term predictions from 10 minutes to one hour ahead. A key idea is that the similar pattern data in history are properly selected and embedded in Gaussian Process model to make predictions. The results of the proposed algorithms are compared to those of standard Gaussian Process model and the persistence model. It is shown that the proposed method not only reduces magnitude error but also phase error.
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The conversion of biomass for the production of liquid fuels can help reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are predominantly generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. Oxymethylene ethers (OMEs) are a series of liquid fuel additives that can be obtained from syngas, which is produced from the gasification of biomass. The blending of OMEs in conventional diesel fuel can reduce soot formation during combustion in a diesel engine. In this research, a process for the production of OMEs from woody biomass has been simulated. The process consists of several unit operations including biomass gasifi- cation, syngas cleanup, methanol production, and conversion of methanol to OMEs. The methodology involved the development of process models, the identification of the key process parameters affecting OME production based on the process model, and the development of an optimal process design for high OME yields. It was found that up to 9.02 tonnes day1 of OME3, OME4, and OME5 (which are suitable as diesel additives) can be produced from 277.3 tonnes day1 of wet woody biomass. Furthermore, an optimal combination of the parameters, which was generated from the developed model, can greatly enhance OME production and thermodynamic efficiency. This model can further be used in a techno- economic assessment of the whole biomass conversion chain to produce OMEs. The results of this study can be helpful for petroleum-based fuel producers and policy makers in determining the most attractive pathways of converting bio-resources into liquid fuels.
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In dynamic spectrum access networks, cognitive radio terminals monitor their spectral environment in order to detect and opportunistically access unoccupied frequency channels. The overall performance of such networks depends on the spectrum occupancy or availability patterns. Accurate knowledge on the channel availability enables optimum performance of such networks in terms of spectrum and energy efficiency. This work proposes a novel probabilistic channel availability model that can describe the channel availability in different polarizations for mobile cognitive radio terminals that are likely to change their orientation during their operation. A Gaussian approximation is used to model the empirical occupancy data that was obtained through a measurement campaign in the cellular frequency bands within a realistic operational scenario.
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A partir de uma amostra de 600 turistas internacionais que circulam em Portugal, Espanha e Itália, este estudo identifica as principais os conceitos chave relacionados com o terrorismo, a percepção de risco, envolvimento e motivação para a segurança dos turistas internacionais. Diferentes níveis de preocupação relativamente à segurança pode influenciar as decisões dos turistas. No seu processo de decisão, os turistas avaliam vários factores, nomeadamente, o nível de risco ou de segurança que consideram nos destinos (Sonmez, 1998). Os turistas adoptam uma atitude protectora alterando os seus comportamentos durante os processos de decisão, substituindo os destinos que consideram inseguros por outros associados a uma maior segurança (Gu & Martin, 1992; Mansfeld, 1996). O terrorismo exacerbado pelos media tem efeitos graves nas receitas dos destinos turísticos (Taylor, 2006). Através da publicidade negativa, um destino turístico que experiencia um incidente terrorista pode ver a sua reputação danificada e a actividade turística severamente comprometida (Sonmez, 1998). Inclusivamente, a imageme negativa de um destino pode ser generalizada e pode também afectar outros países ou regiões por períodos de tempo indeterminados (Taylor, 2006). Um modelo de equações estruturais revela que os turistas são motivados para adquirir informação sobre o terrorismo nos media, nomeadamente mostram atenção e interesse sobre essas notícias e esse facto influencia directamente o seu risco percebido. A percepção de risco influencia directamente o envolvimento dos turistas no planeamento da viagem, especificamente a procura de informação antes da viagem e quando estão no destino. A percepção de risco e o envolvimento dos turistas influencia a percepção da importância da segurança.A discussão foca as implicações deste modelo para a teoria e para as instituições e organizações turísticas. São igualmente apresentadas recomendações para os gestores e promotores dos destinos e para os gestores das organizações turísticas. Direcções futuras de investigação são igualmente apresentadas.
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The contemporary world is crowded of large, interdisciplinary, complex systems made of other systems, personnel, hardware, software, information, processes, and facilities. The Systems Engineering (SE) field proposes an integrated holistic approach to tackle these socio-technical systems that is crucial to take proper account of their multifaceted nature and numerous interrelationships, providing the means to enable their successful realization. Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is an emerging paradigm in the SE field and can be described as the formalized application of modelling principles, methods, languages, and tools to the entire lifecycle of those systems, enhancing communications and knowledge capture, shared understanding, improved design precision and integrity, better development traceability, and reduced development risks. This thesis is devoted to the application of the novel MBSE paradigm to the Urban Traffic & Environment domain. The proposed system, the GUILTE (Guiding Urban Intelligent Traffic & Environment), deals with a present-day real challenging problem “at the agenda” of world leaders, national governors, local authorities, research agencies, academia, and general public. The main purposes of the system are to provide an integrated development framework for the municipalities, and to support the (short-time and real-time) operations of the urban traffic through Intelligent Transportation Systems, highlighting two fundamental aspects: the evaluation of the related environmental impacts (in particular, the air pollution and the noise), and the dissemination of information to the citizens, endorsing their involvement and participation. These objectives are related with the high-level complex challenge of developing sustainable urban transportation networks. The development process of the GUILTE system is supported by a new methodology, the LITHE (Agile Systems Modelling Engineering), which aims to lightening the complexity and burdensome of the existing methodologies by emphasizing agile principles such as continuous communication, feedback, stakeholders involvement, short iterations and rapid response. These principles are accomplished through a universal and intuitive SE process, the SIMILAR process model (which was redefined at the light of the modern international standards), a lean MBSE method, and a coherent System Model developed through the benchmark graphical modeling languages SysML and OPDs/OPL. The main contributions of the work are, in their essence, models and can be settled as: a revised process model for the SE field, an agile methodology for MBSE development environments, a graphical tool to support the proposed methodology, and a System Model for the GUILTE system. The comprehensive literature reviews provided for the main scientific field of this research (SE/MBSE) and for the application domain (Traffic & Environment) can also be seen as a relevant contribution.
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Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Ecologia Marinha), 26 de Novembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.
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Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Dr. Luís Pereira Gomes
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Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Marketing Digital, sob orientação de Doutor José Freitas Santos