Machine learning Gaussian short rate

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão do Risco

Non root feeding with two sources of zinc on Coffea arábica L. 'mundo novo'(B.Rodr.) Choussy

A trial was carried out on an eight old coffee plantation with visible zinc problems. The plantation was situated nearly the city of Jaú (22º30'S, 48º30'W). State of São Paulo, Brazil. The soil is classified as medium texture Oxisol of low base saturation (Latossol Vermelho Amarelo - fase arenosa). The pulverization program started in november 1977, followed in march and July 1978 (heavy harvest) and ended in march and July 1979 (light harvest). Is should be mentioned that a well reconized characteristic of arábica coffe is its habit of biennial bearing, a very heavy harvest is most often followed by a light load the next year. The following treatments and amounts of chemicals per cova hole (4 trees) were tested in accordance with a random block design: 1. 1 g of zinc (zinc sulphate, 0.5%) 2. 3 g of nitrogen (urea, 1.3%) 3. 1 g of zinc + 3 g of nitrogen (zinc sulphate 0.5% + urea 1.3%) 4. 0.25 g, 0.50 g, 1.00 g, 2.00 g of zinc plus 0.75 g, 1.50 g, 3.00 g and 6.00 of nitrogen (correspondent to NZN* 15-0-0-5 as 0.75%, 1-5%, 3.0% and 6.0% by v/v). Foliar absorption data were obtained by collecting the 3rd and 4th pairs of the coffee leaves and analysed them for N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn. The main results may be summarized as follows: 1. The maximum calculated yields of clean coffee were obtained by the applications of 5.84 1 of NZN (1.13%) per hectare. 2. The applications of zinc sulphate (0.5%) and urea (1.3%) together or separate did not affected the coffee bean production. 3. The applications of 15.0 1 of NZN per hectare reduced the coffee yields. 4. Leaf damages and burning symptoms were observed by the applications of urea (1.3%) plus zinc sulphate (0.5%) and larger doses than 7.5 1 of NZN per hectare. 5. Leaf tissue analysis show that the concentrations of the elements were affecred by the age of the leaves and by the yields of the coffee trees. 6. The applications of increasing doses of NZN causes an increase in the concentration of zinc, manganese and boron in the leaves and decreased the concentration in calcium and potassium the leaves. 7. The concentration of zinc in the leaves associated with the heavy harvest, in July, was 70.0 ppm.

A class of stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents related to Glauber dynamics on random graphs

We introduce and study a class of infinite-horizon nonzero-sum non-cooperative stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents using ideas of statistical mechanics. First we show, in the general case of asymmetric interactions, the existence of a strategy that allows any player to eliminate losses after a finite random time. In the special case of symmetric interactions, we also prove that, as time goes to infinity, the game converges to a Nash equilibrium. Moreover, assuming that all agents adopt the same strategy, using arguments related to those leading to perfect simulation algorithms, spatial mixing and ergodicity are proved. In turn, ergodicity allows us to prove “fixation”, i.e. that players will adopt a constant strategy after a finite time. The resulting dynamics is related to zerotemperature Glauber dynamics on random graphs of possibly infinite volume.

Extent of non-publication in cohorts of studies approved by research ethics committees or included in trial registries

BACKGROUND: The synthesis of published research in systematic reviews is essential when providing evidence to inform clinical and health policy decision-making. However, the validity of systematic reviews is threatened if journal publications represent a biased selection of all studies that have been conducted (dissemination bias). To investigate the extent of dissemination bias we conducted a systematic review that determined the proportion of studies published as peer-reviewed journal articles and investigated factors associated with full publication in cohorts of studies (i) approved by research ethics committees (RECs) or (ii) included in trial registries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Four bibliographic databases were searched for methodological research projects (MRPs) without limitations for publication year, language or study location. The searches were supplemented by handsearching the references of included MRPs. We estimated the proportion of studies published using prediction intervals (PI) and a random effects meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratios (OR) were used to express associations between study characteristics and journal publication. Seventeen MRPs (23 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies approved by RECs; the proportion of published studies had a PI between 22% and 72% and the weighted pooled proportion when combining estimates would be 46.2% (95% CI 40.2%-52.4%, I2 = 94.4%). Twenty-two MRPs (22 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies included in trial registries; the PI of the proportion published ranged from 13% to 90% and the weighted pooled proportion would be 54.2% (95% CI 42.0%-65.9%, I2 = 98.9%). REC-approved studies with statistically significant results (compared with those without statistically significant results) were more likely to be published (pooled OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.2-3.5). Phase-III trials were also more likely to be published than phase II trials (pooled OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6-2.5). The probability of publication within two years after study completion ranged from 7% to 30%. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial part of the studies approved by RECs or included in trial registries remains unpublished. Due to the large heterogeneity a prediction of the publication probability for a future study is very uncertain. Non-publication of research is not a random process, e.g., it is associated with the direction of study findings. Our findings suggest that the dissemination of research findings is biased.

A New Model Of Trend Inflation

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

COLOX: a new blood-based test for colorectal cancer screening

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES: Detection rates for adenoma and early colorectal cancer (CRC) are insufficient due to low compliance towards invasive screening procedures, like colonoscopy.Available non-invasive screening tests have unfortunately low sensitivity and specificity performances.Therefore, there is a large unmet need calling for a cost-effective, reliable and non-invasive test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions AIMS & Methods: The objective is to develop a screening test able to detect early CRCs and adenomas.This test is based on a nucleic acids multi-gene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs).A colonoscopy-controlled feasibility study was conducted on 179 subjects.The first 92 subjects was used as training set to generate a statistical significant signature.Colonoscopy revealed 21 subjects with CRC,30 with adenoma bigger than 1 cm and 41 with no neoplastic or inflammatory lesions.The second group of 48 subjects (controls, CRC and polyps) was used as a test set and will be kept blinded for the entire data analysis.To determine the organ and disease specificity 38 subjects were used:24 with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD),14 with other cancers than CRC (OC).Blood samples were taken from each patient the day of the colonoscopy and PBMCs were purified. Total RNA was extracted following standard procedures.Multiplex RT-qPCR was applied on 92 different candidate biomarkers.Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on these candidates and among them 60 biomarkers with significant p-values (<0.01) were selected.These biomarkers are involved in several different biological functions as cellular movement,cell signaling and interaction,tissue and cellular development,cancer and cell growth and proliferation.Two distinct biomarker signatures are used to separate patients without lesion from those with cancer or with adenoma, named COLOX CRC and COLOX POL respectively.COLOX performances were validated using random resampling method, bootstrap. RESULTS: COLOX CRC and POL tests successfully separate patients without lesions from those with CRC (Se 67%,Sp 93%,AUC 0.87) and from those with adenoma bigger than 1cm (Se 63%,Sp 83%,AUC 0.77),respectively. 6/24 patients in the IBD group and 1/14 patients in the OC group have a positive COLOX CRC CONCLUSION: The two COLOX tests demonstrated a high sensitivity and specificity to detect the presence of CRCs and adenomas bigger than 1 cm.A prospective, multicenter, pivotal study is underway in order to confirm these promising results in a larger cohort.

Is the coiled body involved in nucleolar functions?

Coiled bodies (CBs) are structural constituents observed in nuclei of most eukaryotic cells. They usually occur in the nucleoplasm as well as in contact with the nucleolar surface. In this work we studied the hepatocyte nuclei of hibernating dormice in order to investigate possible modifications of CBs along the seasonal cycle. CBs were abundant during hibernation and rapidly disappeared upon arousal from hibernation. Moreover, CBs were frequently found to be integrated into the nucleolar body. Immunocytochemical analyses showed that CBs contain nucleoplasmic as well as nucleolar RNA-processing factors, suggesting an "ambiguous" role for this organelle in the nuclear functions.

Emerging roles of non-coding RNAs in pancreatic β-cell function and dysfunction.

Pancreatic β-cells play a central role in glucose homeostasis by tightly regulating insulin release according to the organism's demand. Impairment of β-cell function due to hostile environment, such as hyperglycaemia and hyperlipidaemia, or due to autoimmune destruction of β-cells, results in diabetes onset. Both environmental factors and genetic predisposition are known to be involved in the development of the disease, but the exact mechanisms leading to β-cell dysfunction and death remain to be characterized. Non-coding RNA molecules, such as microRNAs (miRNAs), have been suggested to be necessary for proper β-cell development and function. The present review aims at summarizing the most recent findings about the role of non-coding RNAs in the control of β-cell functions and their involvement in diabetes. We will also provide a perspective view of the future research directions in the field of non-coding RNAs. In particular, we will discuss the implications for diabetes research of the discovery of a new communication mechanism based on cell-to-cell miRNA transfer. Moreover, we will highlight the emerging interconnections between miRNAs and epigenetics and the possible role of long non-coding RNAs in the control of β-cell activities.

Divergent functions of three Candida albicans zinc-cluster transcription factors (CTA4, ASG1 and CTF1) complementing pleiotropic drug resistance in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

One of the mediators of pleiotropic drug resistance in Saccharomyces cerevisiae is the ABC-transporter gene PDR5. This gene is regulated by at least two transcription factors with Zn(2)-Cys(6) finger DNA-binding motifs, Pdr1p and Pdr3p. In this work, we searched for functional homologues of these transcription factors in Candida albicans. A C. albicans gene library was screened in a S. cerevisiae mutant lacking PDR1 and PDR3 and clones resistant to azole antifungals were isolated. From these clones, three genes responsible for azole resistance were identified. These genes (CTA4, ASG1 and CTF1) encode proteins with Zn(2)-Cys(6)-type zinc finger motifs in their N-terminal domains. The C. albicans genes expressed in S. cerevisiae could activate the transcription of a PDR5-lacZ reporter system and this reporter activity was PDRE-dependent. They could also confer resistance to azoles in a S. cerevisiae strain lacking PDR1, PDR3 and PDR5, suggesting that CTA4-, ASG1- and CTF1-dependent azole resistance can be caused by genes other than PDR5 in S. cerevisiae. Deletion of CTA4, ASG1 and CTF1 in C. albicans had no effect on fluconazole susceptibility and did not alter the expression of the ABC-transporter genes CDR1 and CDR2 or the major facilitator gene MDR1, which encode multidrug transporters known as mediators of azole resistance in C. albicans. However, additional phenotypic screening tests on the C. albicans mutants revealed that the presence of ASG1 was necessary to sustain growth on non-fermentative carbon sources (sodium acetate, acetic acid, ethanol). In conclusion, C. albicans possesses functional homologues of the S. cerevisiae Pdr1p and Pdr3p transcription factors; however, their properties in C. albicans have been rewired to other functions.

Patient-ventilator asynchrony during non-invasive ventilation for acute respiratory failure: a multicenter study.

OBJECTIVE : To determine the prevalence of patient-ventilator asynchrony in patients receiving non-invasive ventilation (NIV) for acute respiratory failure. DESIGN : Prospective multicenter observation study. SETTING : Intensive care units in three university hospitals. METHODS: Patients consecutively admitted to ICU were included. NIV, performed with an ICU ventilator, was set by the clinician. Airway pressure, flow, and surface diaphragmatic electromyography were recorded continuously for 30 min. Asynchrony events and the asynchrony index (AI) were determined from visual inspection of the recordings and clinical observation. RESULTS: A total of 60 patients were included, 55% of whom were hypercapnic. Auto-triggering was present in 8 (13%) patients, double triggering in 9 (15%), ineffective breaths in 8 (13%), premature cycling 7 (12%) and late cycling in 14 (23%). An AI > 10%, indicating severe asynchrony, was present in 26 patients (43%), whose median (25-75 IQR) AI was 26 (15-54%). A significant correlation was found between the magnitude of leaks and the number of ineffective breaths and severity of delayed cycling. Multivariate analysis indicated that the level of pressure support and the magnitude of leaks were weakly, albeit significantly, associated with an AI > 10%. Patient comfort scale was higher in pts with an AI < 10%. CONCLUSION: Patient-ventilator asynchrony is common in patients receiving NIV for acute respiratory failure. Our results suggest that leaks play a major role in generating patient-ventilator asynchrony and discomfort, and point the way to further research to determine if ventilator functions designed to cope with leaks can reduce asynchrony in the clinical setting.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

High prevalence anti-Trypanosoma cruzi antibodies, among blood donors in the State of Puebla, a non-endemic area of Mexico

Blood transfusion is the second most common transmission route of Chagas disease in many Latin American countries. In Mexico, the prevalence of Chagas disease and impact of transfusion of Trypanosoma cruzi-contaminated blood is not clear. We determined the seropositivity to T. cruzi in a representative random sample, of 2,140 blood donors (1,423 men and 647 women, aged 19-65 years), from a non-endemic state of almost 5 millions of inhabitants by the indirect hemagglutination (IHA) and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests using one autochthonous antigen from T. cruzi parasites, which were genetically characterized like TBAR/ME/1997/RyC-V1 (T. cruzi I) isolated from a Triatoma barberi specimen collected in the same locality. The seropositivity was up to 8.5% and 9% with IHA and ELISA tests, respectively, and up to 7.7% using both tests in common. We found high seroprevalence in a non-endemic area of Mexico, comparable to endemic countries where the disease occurs, e.g. Brazil (0.7%), Bolivia (13.7%) and Argentina (3.5%). The highest values observed in samples from urban areas, associated to continuous rural emigration and the absence of control in blood donors, suggest unsuspected high risk of transmission of T. cruzi, higher than those reported for infections by blood e.g. hepatitis (0.1%) and AIDS (0.1%) in the same region.

An algebraic operator approach to the analysis of Gerber-Shiu functions

We introduce an algebraic operator framework to study discounted penalty functions in renewal risk models. For inter-arrival and claim size distributions with rational Laplace transform, the usual integral equation is transformed into a boundary value problem, which is solved by symbolic techniques. The factorization of the differential operator can be lifted to the level of boundary value problems, amounting to iteratively solving first-order problems. This leads to an explicit expression for the Gerber-Shiu function in terms of the penalty function.

Oxidative stress activation of miR-125b is part of the molecular switch for Hailey-Hailey disease manifestation.

Hailey-Hailey disease (HHD) is an autosomal dominant disorder characterized by suprabasal cutaneous cell separation (acantholysis) leading to the development of erosive and oozing skin lesion. Micro RNAs (miRNAs) are endogenous post-transcriptional modulators of gene expression with critical functions in health and disease. Here, we evaluated whether the expression of specific miRNAs may play a role in the pathogenesis of HHD. Here, we report that miRNAs are expressed in a non-random manner in Hailey-Hailey patients. miR-125b appeared a promising candidate for playing a role in HHD manifestation. Both Notch1 and p63 are part of a regulatory signalling whose function is essential for the control of keratinocyte proliferation and differentiation and of note, the expression of both Notch1 and p63 is downregulated in HHD-derived keratinocytes. We found that both Notch1 and p63 expression is strongly suppressed by miR-125b expression. Additionally, we found that miR-125b expression is increased by an oxidative stress-dependent mechanism. Our data suggest that oxidative stress-mediated induction of miR-125b plays a specific role in the pathogenesis of HHD by regulating the expression of factors playing an important role in keratinocyte proliferation and differentiation.

Genetic diversity of environmental Aspergillus flavus strains in the state of São Paulo, Brazil by random amplified polymorphic DNA

Aspergillus flavus is a very important toxigenic fungus that produces aflatoxins, a group of extremely toxic substances to man and animals. Toxigenic fungi can grow in feed crops, such as maize, peanuts, and soybeans, being thus of high concern for public health. There are toxigenic and non-toxigenic A. flavus variants, but the necessary conditions for expressing the toxigenic potential are not fully understood. Therefore, we have studied total-DNA polymorphism from toxigenic and non toxigenic A. flavus strains isolated from maize crops and soil at two geographic locations, 300 km apart, in the Southeast region of Brazil. Total DNA from each A. flavus isolate was extracted and subjected to polymerase chain reaction amplification with five randomic primers through the RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) technique. Phenetic and cladistic analyses of the data, based on bootstrap analyses, led us to conclude that RAPD was not suitable to discriminate toxigenic from non toxigenic strains. But the present results support the use of RAPD for strain characterization, especially for preliminary evaluation over extensive collections.