The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

Stateful Intrusion Detection for IEC 60870-5-104 SCADA Security

Cyber threats in Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems have the potential to render physical damage and jeopardize power system operation, safety and stability. SCADA systems were originally designed with little consideration of escalating cyber threats and hence the problem of how to develop robust intrusion detection technologies to tailor the requirements of SCADA is an emerging topic and a big challenge. This paper proposes a stateful Intrusion Detection System (IDS) using a Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) method to improve the cyber-security of SCADA systems using the IEC 60870-5-104 protocol which is tailored for basic telecontrol communications. The proposed stateful protocol analysis approach is presented that is designed specifically for the IEC 60870-5-104 protocol. Finally, the novel intrusion detection approach are implemented and validated.

A Reliability Assessment Approach for the Urban Energy System and Its Application in Energy Hub Planning

With the increasing utilization of combined heat and power plants (CHP), electrical, gas, and thermal systems are becoming tightly integrated in the urban energy system (UES). However, the three systems are usually planned and operated separately, ignoring their interactions and coordination. To address this issue, the coupling point of different systems in the UES is described by the energy hub model. With this model, an integrated load curtailment method is proposed for the UES. Then a Monte Carlo simulation based approach is developed to assess the reliability of coordinated energy supply systems. Based on this approach, a reliability-optimal energy hub planning method is proposed to accommodate higher renewable energy penetration. Numerical studies indicate that the proposed approach is able to quantify the UES reliability with different structures. Also, optimal energy hub planning scheme can be determined to ensure the reliability of the UES with high renewable penetration.

Towards an Improved Phasor Measurement Unit Data Communications Framework

This paper discusses a proposed new communications framework for phasor measurement units (PMU) optimized for use on wide area networks. Traditional PMU telecoms have been optimized for use in environments where bandwidth is restricted. The new method takes the reliability of the telecommunications medium into account and provides guaranteed delivery of data whilst optimizing for realtime delivery of the most current data. Other important aspects, such as security, are also considered.

Efficacy of Wind Power in Mitigation of CO2 Emission from the Irish Electrical Grid

The results in this paper are based on a data set containing system demand, wind generation and CO2 emission between Jan 2010 and Sep 2013. The data was recorded at 15 minute intervals and reflects the macroscopic operation of the Republic of Ireland's electrical grid. The data was analyzed by investigating how daily wind generation effected daily CO2 emission across multiple days with equivalent daily demand. A figure for wind turbine efficiency was determined by dividing the CO2 mitigation potential of wind power by the CO2 intensity of the grid; both in units of Tonnes of CO2 per MWh. The yearly wind power efficiency appears to have increased by 5.6% per year, now standing around 90%. Over the four years significant regularity was observed in the profiles of wind turbine efficiency against daily demand. It appears that the efficiency profile has moved in recent years so that maximum efficiency coincides with most frequent demand.

A new battery modelling method based on simulation error minimization

A new battery modelling method is presented based on the simulation error minimization criterion rather than the conventional prediction error criterion. A new integrated optimization method to optimize the model parameters is proposed. This new method is validated on a set of Li ion battery test data, and the results confirm the advantages of the proposed method in terms of the model generalization performance and long-term prediction accuracy.

Participation of Smallholders in Agroforestry Agri-Environmental Scheme: A lesson from the rural Mount Kenya region

The likelihood of smallholder farmers not participating in agroforestry agri-environmental schemes and payments for ecosystem services (PES) may be due to limited farmland endowment and formal credit constraints. These deficits may lead to an ‘exclusive club’ of successful farmers, which are not necessarily poor, enjoying the benefits of agri-environmental schemes and PES although agrienvironmental schemes and PES have been devised as a means of fostering rural sustainable development and improving the livelihood of poor smallholder farmers. Smallholder farmers in parts of rural Kenya continue to enroll in ‘The International Small Group Tree Planting Programme’ (TIST), an agri-environmental scheme, promoting agroforestry, carbon sequestration and conservation agriculture (CA). The question remains if these farmers are really poor? This study examines factors that determine the participation of smallholder farmers in TIST in parts of rural Kenya. We use survey data compiled in 2013 on 210 randomly selected smallholder farmers from Embu, Meru and Nanyuki communities; the sample consists of TIST and non-TIST members. A random utility model and logit regression were used to test a set of non-monetary and monetary factors that influence participation in the TIST. The utility function is conceptualized to give non-monetary factors, particularly the common medium of communication in rural areas – formal and informal – a central role. Furthermore, we investigate other factors (incl. credit accessibility and interest rate) that reveal the nature of farmers participating in TIST. The findings suggest that spread of information via formal and informal networks is a major driver of participation in the TIST program. Furthermore, variables such credit constrains, age and labour supply positively correlate with TIST participation, while for education the opposite is true. It is important to mention that these correlations, although somewhat consistent, were all found to be weak. The results indicate that participation in the TIST program is not influenced by farm size; therefore we argue that the TIST scheme is NOT an ‘exclusive club’ comprising wealthy and successful farmers. Older farmers’ being more likely to join the TIST is an argument for their long- rather than widely assumed short-term planning horizon and a new contribution to the literature. Given the importance of poverty alleviation and climate smart agriculture in developing countries, sustainable policy should strengthening the social and human capital as well as informal networks in rural areas. Extension services should effectively communicate benefits to less educated and credit constrained farmers.

Islanding Detection Based on Probabilistic PCA with Missing Values in PMU Data

This paper proposes a probabilistic principal component analysis (PCA) approach applied to islanding detection study based on wide area PMU data. The increasing probability of uncontrolled islanding operation, according to many power system operators, is one of the biggest concerns with a large penetration of distributed renewable generation. The traditional islanding detection methods, such as RoCoF and vector shift, are however extremely sensitive and may result in many unwanted trips. The proposed probabilistic PCA aims to improve islanding detection accuracy and reduce the risk of unwanted tripping based on PMU measurements, while addressing a practical issue on missing data. The reliability and accuracy of the proposed probabilistic PCA approach are demonstrated using real data recorded in the UK power system by the OpenPMU project. The results show that the proposed methods can detect islanding accurately, without being falsely triggered by generation trips, even in the presence of missing values.

The OpenPMU Project: Challenges and perspectives:Challenges and Perspectives

The OpenPMU project is a platform for the development of Synchrophasor measurement technology, Phasor Measurement Units (PMU), in an open source manner. The project has now been operating for a number of years and has seen increased adoption at Universities and interest from electrical utilities. The OpenPMU device has recently been tested against the IEEE C37.118 standard and shown to operate within the specification. This paper discusses the OpenPMU project from the perspective of the past two years of experience and evaluates successes and opportunities for improvements in both the OpenPMU device and the philosophy of the design.

Infecção de mycobacterium bovis em células fagocíticas: estratégia aplicada ao diagnóstico da tuberculose bovina

Neste trabalho foram estudadas as interacções entre Mycobacterium bovis e células hospedeiras, na perspectiva de aplicar os conhecimentos resultantes desse estudo ao melhoramento do diagnóstico da tuberculose bovina. Foi estudada a dinâmica da infecção de células fagocíticas com estirpes de M. bovis, com ênfase para a invasão e multiplicação intracelular das micobactérias. Avaliações efectuadas por citometria de fluxo, microscopia de fluorescência e contagem de colónias demonstraram que as micobactérias invadiram e replicaram em todos os modelos celulares, sendo que as células epiteliais de pulmão de bovino foram as mais permissivas ao seu crescimento. Foi nas células macrofágicas J774 e THP-1 que se verificaram as maiores concentrações micobacterianas, pelo que foram utilizadas para a detecção e identificação de M. bovis por um método molecular. A optimização da extracção de DNA, por um processo mecânico, e o desenvolvimento do método de PCR-RFLP baseado no gene gyrB, com controlo interno, permitiram a identificação de M. bovis. A sensibilidade deste método foi de 100% quando aplicado a estirpes isoladas e apenas de 40% quando utilizado directamente em amostras de macerados de tecidos de bovinos com tuberculose. Uma pré-incubação (3 dias) das amostras nas culturas celulares contribuiu para melhorar significativamente a sensibilidade (77%) do PCR-RFLP gyrB. A cultura celular, como matriz a ser utilizada para aumentar a quantidade de M. bovis presente em amostras biológicas, revela-se um método promissor para o diagnóstico laboratorial rápido, específico e sensível da tuberculose bovina. ### - Summary - Interactions between Mycobacterium bovis and host cells were studied with the purpose to apply the outcome knowledge in the improvement of bovine tuberculosis diagnosis. The dynamic of infection of four cell models with three strains of M. bovis was evaluated, with emphasis given to the invasion and intracellular multiplication of mycobacteria. Assessments by flow cytometry, fluorescence microscopy and colony counting showed that every cell models permitted the replication of mycobacteria, although bovine lung epithelial cells had been the most permissive one. The highest mycobacteria) load was found, however, in J774 and THP-1 macrophages, and hence these cells were used for the optimization of a molecular method for detection and identification of M. bovis. The optimisation of a DNA extraction step, by a mechanical process, and the development of PCR-RFLP based on gyrB gene, with an internal control, allowed the identification of M. bovis. The sensitivity of this method was 100% when applied to isolated strains and only 40% when directly used on samples of macerated of tissues from cattle with tuberculosis. Assays in which a pre-incubation step (three days) of biological samples in cell cultures was introduced significantly improved the sensitivity (77%) of the gyrB PCR-RFLP. Cell cultures as a support for growth and rapid isolation of M. bovis is a promising method for the specific, sensitive and rapid laboratorial diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis.

Turismo e eventos culturais: A festa do fim-de-ano na ilha da Madeira e as experiências dos turistas

Os eventos culturais, especialmente os festivais tradicionais, constituem uma área de interesse para muitos investigadores. Eles são um veículo para expressar a relação próxima que existe entre identidade e lugar. Em muitos países e regiões assiste-se, cada vez mais, à multiplicação de diversos eventos culturais para seduzir visitantes ou turistas. Eles criam oportunidades para a viagem, aumentam o consumo e promovem o desenvolvimento do turismo. O presente artigo pretende analisar as dimensões da experiência que os turistas adquiriram na Festa do Fim-de-Ano na Ilha da Madeira. Para atingir o objetivo aplicou-se um inquérito por questionário aos turistas que foram ao evento e utilizou-se como modelo teórico a ‘economia da experiência’ de Pine e Gilmore (1999). Os resultados mostraram que os turistas inquiridos adquiriram, na sua maioria, uma participação passiva entre a dimensão da experiência ‘entretenimento’ e ‘estética’.

The impact of body fat on three dimensional motion of the paediatric foot during walking

Childhood obesity is commonly associated with a pes planus foot type and altered lower limb joint function during walking. However, limited information has been reported on dynamic intersegment foot motion with the level of obesity in children. The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between intersegment foot motion during gait and body fat in boys age 7 to 11 years. Fat mass was measured in fifty-five boys using air displacement plethysmography. Three-dimensional gait analysis was conducted on the right foot of each participant using the 3DFoot model to capture angular motion of the shank, calcaneus, midfoot and metatarsals. Two multivariate statistical techniques were employed; principle component analysis reduced the multidimensional nature of gait analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis accounted for potential confounding factors. Higher fat mass predicted greater plantarflexion of the calcaneus during the first half and end of stance phase and at the end of swing phase. Greater abduction of the calcaneus throughout stance and swing was predicted by greater fat mass. At the midfoot, higher fat mass predicted greater dorsiflexion and eversion throughout the gait cycle. The findings present novel information on the relationships between intersegment angular motion of the foot and body fat in young boys. The data indicates a more pronated foot type in boys with greater body fat. These findings have clinical implications for pes planus and a predisposition for pain and discomfort during weight bearing activities potentially reducing motivation in obese children to be physically active.

Pesquisa de antifúngicos de origem vegetal

Dissertação mest., Engenharia Biológica, Universidade do Algarve, 2009