Redes de mapas acoplados em sistemas biológicos de reação-difusão

Em modelos em que a distribuição espacial da população não é con- siderada, isto é, quando se supõe que haja uma homogeneidade espacial, e se estuda a evolução temporal do sistema, há uma única variável independente: o tempo. Caso a população seja constituída de duas espécies, do tipo parasitóide-hospedeiro, e a variável independente tempo for considerada discreta, teremos um sistema de equações a diferenças, como por exemplo o modelo de Nicholson-Bailey cujas soluções são apresentadas neste trabalho. Populações espacialmente distribuídas, em um espaço de natureza discreta, juntamente com a dinâmica vital em tempo discreto, têm o seu comportamento estudado através de redes de mapas acoplados. Após estudar o modelo de Hassell (dinâmica vital de Nicholson-Bailey com movimentação por difusão) e o modelo planta-herbívoro com movimentação por taxia, deduzimos e simulamos um modelo incluindo movimentação por taxia, difusão e convecção. É também apresentado neste trabalho, um paralelo entre estes modelos de redes de mapas acoplados e aqueles com as equações diferenciais correspondentes.

Comparação de previsões para a produção industrial brasileira considerando efeitos calendário e modelos agregados e desagregados

O trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a existência e a relevância dos Efeitos Calendário em indicadores industriais. São explorados modelos univariados lineares para o indicador mensal da produção industrial brasileira e alguns de seus componentes. Inicialmente é realizada uma análise dentro da amostra valendo-se de modelos estruturais de espaço-estado e do algoritmo de seleção Autometrics, a qual aponta efeito significante da maioria das variáveis relacionadas ao calendário. Em seguida, através do procedimento de Diebold-Mariano (1995) e do Model Confidence Set, proposto por Hansen, Lunde e Nason (2011), são realizadas comparações de previsões de modelos derivados do Autometrics com um dispositivo simples de Dupla Diferença para um horizonte de até 24 meses à frente. Em geral, os modelos Autometrics que consideram as variáveis de calendário se mostram superiores nas projeções de 1 a 2 meses adiante e superam o modelo simples em todos os horizontes. Quando se agrega os componentes de categoria de uso para formar o índice industrial total, há evidências de ganhos nas projeções de prazo mais curto.

Modelos curriculares na educação de infância: o enfoque na expressão dramática: da teoria às práticas

Esta investigação, de natureza qualitativa, pretendeu num primeiro propósito compreender a importância do currículo enquanto referencial para o desenvolvimento da educação ao longo dos tempos, desde as teorias tradicionais às teorias críticas e pós-críticas. Num segundo propósito, analisar teoricamente três modelos curriculares (High Scope, Movimento da Escola Moderna, Reggio Emilia), no âmbito da educação de infância, à luz de uma educação preconizada na atualidade e compreender a valorização do domínio da expressão dramática nos modelos curriculares em estudo. Como terceiro propósito, pretendeu, através de um estudo de caso, verificar a dinâmica da atividade de expressão dramática inerente às práticas pedagógicas dos educadores de infância cooperantes no curso de Licenciatura em Educação de Infância, da Universidade da Madeira. Entrevistámos um grupo de quinze educadores cooperantes, observámos as práticas pedagógicas de dois educadores no âmbito da expressão dramática e registámos ainda as atividades realizadas pelas crianças. Quanto aos resultados, reforçámos a ideia que os modelos curriculares são gramáticas pedagógicas importantes para as práticas dos educadores de infância. Relativamente às práticas pedagógicas observadas no domínio da expressão dramática, estas revelaram que é necessário aperfeiçoar os referenciais teóricos dos educadores, bem como a construção da planificação de atividades para garantir uma intervenção sustentada e um maior espaço de manobra à criança num contexto de aprendizagem autêntica e significativa.

Caminhos de sobrevivência institucional: a gestão do núcleo de oficinas e artes profissionalizantes laís aderne

The object of this study is the organizational management, particularly the relational processenvironment organization focused on the survival of the space Department of the Arts and Crafts Mestre Raimundo Cardoso linked to the structural arrangement of the Liceu do Paracuri.. Aimed to understand the ways of organizational survival, from the actors' perception of the Center for Arts Career Workshops and Lais Aderne, with investments that discuss the theoretical models of management, institutional theory, cultural organization and institutionalization of public education requirement of the municipal light LDB. (1996) used a qualitative approach with a view to RICHARDSON (1985). The data generated were analyzed based on the technique of content analysis, the thematic type [categorical] Bardin (1977). The results indicate that the institutionalization of the arrangement of the Liceu do Paracuri emerges meet the legal requirement of the autonomy of municipal educational administration under the aegis of sustainable development, quality of life and basic education from the municipal Hélio Gueiros (1993-1996 ). More specifically the Center for Arts and Crafts Laís Aderne, the unit of analysis, the subjects said that this space is designed as a link between the demands of school and community searching through interdisciplinary activities educate and train manpower mainly potter. They did mention the existence of institutional factors (history, culture, habits, values) represent a strong socio-cultural element to the actors belonging to the core that guides behavior and actions of these individuals, fueled by a sense of hope, inclusion of future artisans in culture ceramist. It made a shared management, the existence of a unique work through cultural revival. However, over the course of time, the core is faced with dilemmas of managing transitions mainly regarding governmental, technological beyond endurance by the craftsmen for the optimization of their work. The conclusion - that the paths chosen for the organizational survival of the core meaning and guiding their actions in the systematization of conduct, representations, memories and traditions through habits and choices of consensus, the viewpoint of the actors

O ouro branco abre caminho: o algodão e a modernização do espaço urbano da Cidade da Parahyba (1850-1924)

The present research deals with the modernization process of the Cidade da Parahyba2, between 1850 and 1924, and its relation with the cotton economy, which represented the main source of wealth accumulation for both the private and the public sectors throughout the First Republic. This study on urban history was developed by focusing on the understanding of the city s spatial formation, and despite its emphasis on the economic aspects involved, other factors that also contribute to the development of the social life were not put aside. The modernization process of the Cidade da Parahyba was also analyzed during the period established for the study according to a chronological and thematic approach that established comparisons with the financial situation of the State, whenever this was necessary, with special attention to the contribution of the cotton economy to the State´s revenues. It was possible to detect a lack of financial help and loans from the federal and municipal administrations for finishing several public works already underway in the capital, since the federal funds allocated to the State of Parahyba do Norte were rather employed in emergency works against droughts and in agricultural development. One can then conclude that the financial resources required for the urban interventions were withdrawn from the State s treasury itself, resources that were collected mainly from activities such as cotton exportation and cotton trading. Another factor shows the interdependence between the urban remodeling and the cotton economy: during the years marked by great droughts or by hard plagues on the cotton plantations, cotton production decreased, as well as the State s finances. The first measures taken by the State s administrators were to halt all projects of urban remodeling in progress in the Cidade da Parahyba, which was, clearly, the most privileged city by the State s presidents during the period analyzed. 2 The city of João Pessoa was named Cidade da Parahyba, a designation that remained until September 1930, when it received its present-day name in order to pay homage to the president of the State, João Pessoa Cavalcanti de Albuquerque, murdered in the city of Recife in August of that same year. At that time, the State of Paraíba was known as Parahyba do Norte. Since this work is limited to a period of time comprised within the First Republic, the names employed respect the terms used in those days

Aquisição e construção de modelos estáticos análogos a reservatórios petrolíferos com tecnologia lidar e georadar

The present work develops a methodology to establish a 3D digital static models petroleum reservoir analogue using LIDAR and GEORADAR technologies. Therefore, this work introduce The methodolgy as a new paradigm in the outcrop study, to purpose a consistent way to integrate plani-altimetric data, geophysics data, and remote sensing products, allowing 2D interpretation validation in contrast with 3D, complexes depositional geometry visualization, including in environmental immersive virtual reality. For that reason, it exposes the relevant questions of the theory of two technologies, and developed a case study using TerraSIRch SIR System-3000 made for Geophysical Survey Systems, and HDS3000 Leica Geosystems, using the two technologies, integrating them GOCAD software. The studied outcrop is plain to the view, and it s located at southeast Bacia do Parnaíba, in the Parque Nacional da Serra das Confusões. The methodology embraces every steps of the building process shows a 3D digital static models petroleum reservoir analogue, provide depositional geometry data, in several scales for Simulation petroleum reservoir

Efeitos do espaço de alojamento e da idade sobre desenvolvimento, integridade e proteção da mucosa intestinal de frangos de corte

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação da aplicação de modelos para a secagem de pastas e suspensões em leito de jorro com alimentação contínua

This work studies the development, implementation and improvement of a macroscopic model to describe the behavior of the spouted bed dryer with continuous feeding for pastes and suspensions drying. This model is based on the CST model (Freire et al., 2009) and the model of Fernandes (2005), whose theoretical foundation is based on macroscopic mass and heat balances for the three phases involved in the process: gas, liquid and solid. Because this technique is quite relevant, the studies of modeling and simulation of spouted bed drying are essential in the analysis of the process as a whole, because through them it is possible to predict and understand the behavior of the process, which contributes significantly to more efficient project and operation. The development and understanding of the phenomena involved in the drying process can be obtained by comparing the experimental data with those from computer simulations. Such knowledge is critical for choosing properly the process conditions in order to obtain a good drying efficiency. Over the past few years, researches and development of works in the field of pastes and suspensions drying in spouted bed has been gaining ground in Brazil. The Particulate Systems Laboratory at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, has been developing several researches and generating a huge collection of experimental data concerning the drying of fruit pulps, vegetables pastes, goat milk and suspensions of agro-industrial residues. From this collection, some data of goat milk and residue from acerola (Malpighia glabra L.) drying were collected. For the first time, these data were used for the development and validation of a model that can describe the behavior of spouted bed dryer. Thus, it was possible to model the dryer and to evaluate the influence of process variables (paste feeding, temperature and flow rate of the drying air) in the drying dynamics. We also performed water evaporation experiments in order to understand and to study the behavior of the dryer wall temperature and the evaporation rate. All these analysis will contribute to future works involving the implementation of control strategies in the pastes and suspensions drying. The results obtained in transient analysis were compared with experimental data indicating that this model well represents the process

Influência dos modelos digitais de terreno na modelagem de circulação hidrodinâmica 2DH: um estudo de caso

Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are numerical representations of a portion of the earth surface. Among several factors which affect the quality of a DEM, it should be emphasized the attention on the input data and the choice of the interpolating algorithm. On the other hand, several numerical models are used nowadays to characterize nearshore hydrodynamics and morphological changes in coastal areas, whose validation is based on field data collection. Independent on the complexity of the physical processes which are modeled, little attention has been given to the intrinsic bathymetric interpolation built within the numerical models of the specific application. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and to quantify the influence of the bathymetry, as obtained by a DEM, on the hydrodynamic circulation model at a coastal stretch, off the coast of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil. This coastal region is characterized by strong hydrodynamic and littoral processes, resulting in a very dynamic morphology with shallow coastal bathymetry. Important economic activities, such as oil exploitation and production, fisheries, salt ponds, shrimp farms and tourism, also bring impacts upon the local ecosystems and influence themselves the local hydrodynamics. This fact makes the region one of the most important for the development of the State, but also enhances the possibility of serious environmental accidents. As a hydrodynamic model, SisBaHiA® - Environmental Hydrodynamics System ( Sistema Básico de Hidrodinâmica Ambiental ) was chosen, for it has been successfully employed at several locations along the Brazilian coast. This model was developed at the Coastal and Oceanographical Engineering Group of the Ocean Engineering Program at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Several interpolating methods were tested for the construction of the DEM, namely Natural Neighbor, Kriging, Triangulation with Linear Interpolation, Inverse Distance to a Power, Nearest Neighbor, and Minimum Curvature, all implemented within the software Surfer®. The bathymetry which was used as reference for the DEM was obtained from nautical charts provided by the Brazilian Hydrographic Service of the Brazilian Navy and from a field survey conducted in 2005. Changes in flow velocity and free surface elevation were evaluated under three aspects: a spatial vision along three profiles perpendicular to the coast and one profile longitudinal to the coast as shown; a temporal vision from three central nodes of the grid during 30 days; a hodograph analysis of components of speed in U and V, by different tidal cycles. Small, but negligible, variations in sea surface elevation were identified. However, the differences in flow and direction of velocities were significant, depending on the DEM

Distribuição ambiental e temporal das comunidades de macroalgas de riachos da Serra da Prata, Estado do Paraná, Sul do Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A construção de modelos situacionais no padrão discursivo narrativa em quadrinhos

The object of this study is the construction of situation models in the discourse pattern comic book narrative, and sits in the field of Cognitive Linguistics. Its main foundations are the notions of embodied mind (LAKOFF; JOHNSON, 1999), mental simulation (BARSALOU, 1999), discourse pattern (DUQUE; COSTA, 2012) and situation models (ZWAAN, 1999). I stem from the hypothesis that the process of meaning construction in narratives is attached to the simulation of space, of time and of the characters goals and actions within the story world, dimensions which make up the situation models elaborated by the reader. The simulation of these experiences during discourse processing originates from the fact of it having an embodied and cultural basis, i.e., upon being confronted with the clues found in the narrative, the cognitive structures that make up the reader s personal and social memories are triggered and make it possible to activate information which in turn refer to his/her physical and social experiences, built up in the environment in which he/she lives. As regards comic book narratives, the construction of situation models is closely related to the recurring activation of certain cognitive structures originating from graphic resources that are typical of that discourse pattern. These conclusions were drawn from the data analysis taken from the work Palestina (SACCO, 2003; 2004; 2011)

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

Modelos auto-similares para rádio fontes extragalácticas.

This work is a detailed study of self-similar models for the expansion of extragalactic radio sources. A review is made of the definitions of AGN, the unified model is discussed and the main characteristics of double radio sources are examined. Three classification schemes are outlined and the self-similar models found in the literature are studied in detail. A self-similar model is proposed that represents a generalization of the models found in the literature. In this model, the area of the head of the jet varies with the size of the jet with a power law with an exponent γ. The atmosphere has a variable density that may or may not be spherically symmetric and it is taken into account the time variation of the cinematic luminosity of the jet according to a power law with an exponent h. It is possible to show that models Type I, II and III are particular cases of the general model and one also discusses the evolution of the sources radio luminosity. One compares the evolutionary curves of the general model with the particular cases and with the observational data in a P-D diagram. The results show that the model allows a better agreement with the observations depending on the appropriate choice of the model parameters.

Acelaração do universo e criação gravitacional de matéria escura fria: novos modelos e testes observacionais

Recent astronomical observations (involving supernovae type Ia, cosmic background radiation anisotropy and galaxy clusters probes) have provided strong evidence that the observed universe is described by an accelerating, flat model whose space-time properties can be represented by the FriedmannRobertsonWalker (FRW) metric. However, the nature of the substance or mechanism behind the current cosmic acceleration remains unknown and its determination constitutes a challenging problem for modern cosmology. In the general relativistic description, an accelerat ing regime is usually obtained by assuming the existence of an exotic energy component endowed with negative pressure, called dark energy, which is usually represented by a cosmological constant ¤ associated to the vacuum energy density. All observational data available so far are in good agreement with the concordance cosmic ¤CDM model. Nevertheless, such models are plagued with several problems thereby inspiring many authors to propose alternative candidates in the relativistic context. In this thesis, a new kind of accelerating flat model with no dark energy and fully dominated by cold dark matter (CDM) is proposed. The number of CDM particles is not conserved and the present accelerating stage is a consequence of the negative pressure describing the irreversible process of gravitational particle creation. In order to have a transition from a decelerating to an accelerating regime at low redshifts, the matter creation rate proposed here depends on 2 parameters (y and ߯): the first one identifies a constant term of the order of H0 and the second one describes a time variation proportional to he Hubble parameter H(t). In this scenario, H0 does not need to be small in order to solve the age problem and the transition happens even if there is no matter creation during the radiation and part of the matter dominated phase (when the ß term is negligible). Like in flat ACDM scenarios, the dimming of distant type Ia supernovae can be fitted with just one free parameter, and the coincidence problem plaguing the models driven by the cosmological constant. ACDM is absent. The limits endowed with with the existence of the quasar APM 08279+5255, located at z = 3:91 and with an estimated ages between 2 and 3 Gyr are also investigated. In the simplest case (ß = 0), the model is compatible with the existence of the quasar for y > 0:56 whether the age of the quasar is 2.0 Gyr. For 3 Gyr the limit derived is y > 0:72. New limits for the formation redshift of the quasar are also established

Estudos de modelos Estocásticos: processo de contato, séries aleatórias e processos difusivos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior