A hybrid method for large-scale short-term scheduling of make-and-pack production processes

Due to the ongoing trend towards increased product variety, fast-moving consumer goods such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals are typically manufactured through so-called make-and-pack processes. These processes consist of a make stage, a pack stage, and intermediate storage facilities that decouple these two stages. In operations scheduling, complex technological constraints must be considered, e.g., non-identical parallel processing units, sequence-dependent changeovers, batch splitting, no-wait restrictions, material transfer times, minimum storage times, and finite storage capacity. The short-term scheduling problem is to compute a production schedule such that a given demand for products is fulfilled, all technological constraints are met, and the production makespan is minimised. A production schedule typically comprises 500–1500 operations. Due to the problem size and complexity of the technological constraints, the performance of known mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations and heuristic approaches is often insufficient. We present a hybrid method consisting of three phases. First, the set of operations is divided into several subsets. Second, these subsets are iteratively scheduled using a generic and flexible MILP formulation. Third, a novel critical path-based improvement procedure is applied to the resulting schedule. We develop several strategies for the integration of the MILP model into this heuristic framework. Using these strategies, high-quality feasible solutions to large-scale instances can be obtained within reasonable CPU times using standard optimisation software. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to a set of industrial problem instances and found that the method outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Group abilities, individual group-efficacy beliefs and performance motivation: A mediation analysis

Introduction Research has shown that individuals infer their group-efficacy beliefs from the groups’ abilities to perform in specific tasks. Group abilities also seem to affect team members’ performance motivation adding a psychological advantage to teams already high on task relevant abilities. In a recent study we found the effect of group abilities on individual performance motivation to be partially mediated by the team members’ individual group-efficacy beliefs which is an example of how attributes on a group-level can be affecting individual-level parameters. Objectives The study aimed at testing the possibility to reduce the direct and mediated effects of low group abilities on performance motivation by augmenting the visibility of individual contributions to group performances via the inclusion of a separate ranking on individual performances. Method Forty-seven students (M=22.83 years, SD=2.83, 34% women) of the University of Bern participated in the study. At three collection points (t1-3) subjects were provided information about fictive team members with whom they had to imagine performing a group triathlon. Three values (low, medium, high) of the other team members’ abilities to perform in their parts of the triathlon (swimming and biking) were combined in a 3x3 full factorial design yielding nine groups with different ability profiles. At t1 subjects were asked to rate their confidence that the teams would perform well in the triathlon task, at t2 and t3 subjects were asked how motivated they were to perform at their best in the respective groups. At t3 the presence of an individual performance ranking was mentioned in the cover story. Mixed linear models (SPSS) and structural equation models for complex survey data (Mplus) were specified to estimate the effects of the individual performance rankings on the relationship between group-efficacy beliefs and performance motivation. Results A significant interaction effect for individual group-efficacy beliefs and the triathlon condition on performance motivation was found; the effect of group-efficacy beliefs on performance motivation being smaller with individual performance rankings available. The partial mediation of group attributes on performance motivation by group-efficacy beliefs disappeared with the announcement of individual performance rankings. Conclusion In teams low in task relevant abilities the disadvantageous effect of group-efficacy beliefs on performance motivation might be reduced by providing means of evaluating individual performances apart from a group’s overall performance. While it is believed that a common group goal is a core criterion for a well performing sport group future studies should also aim at the possible benefit of individualized goal setting in groups.

Scheduling in service systems: an application in the event-tourism industry

This paper deals with an event-bus tour booked by Bollywood film fans. During the tour, the participants visit selected locations of famous Bollywood films at various sites in Switzerland. Moreover, the tour includes stops for lunch and shopping. Each day, up to five buses operate the tour; for organizational reasons, two or more buses cannot stay at the same location simultaneously. The planning problem is how to compute a feasible schedule for each bus such that the total waiting time (primary objective) and the total travel time (secondary objective) are minimized. We formulate this problem as a mixed-integer linear program, and we report on computational results obtained with the Gurobi solver.

Group abilities, individual group-efficacy beliefs and performance motivation: A mediation analysis

Introduction Research has shown that individuals infer their group-efficacy beliefs from the groups’ abilities to perform in specific tasks. Group abilities also seem to affect team members’ performance motivation adding a psychological advantage to teams already high on task relevant abilities. In a recent study we found the effect of group abilities on individual performance motivation to be partially mediated by the team members’ individual group-efficacy beliefs which is an example of how attributes on a group-level can be affecting individual-level parameters. Objectives The study aimed at testing the possibility to reduce the direct and mediated effects of low group abilities on performance motivation by augmenting the visibility of individual contributions to group performances via the inclusion of a separate ranking on individual performances. Method Forty-seven students (M=22.83 years, SD=2.83, 34% women) of the University of Bern participated in the study. At three collection points (t1-3) subjects were provided information about fictive team members with whom they had to imagine performing a group triathlon. Three values (low, medium, high) of the other team members’ abilities to perform in their parts of the triathlon (swimming and biking) were combined in a 3x3 full factorial design yielding nine groups with different ability profiles. At t1 subjects were asked to rate their confidence that the teams would perform well in the triathlon task, at t2 and t3 subjects were asked how motivated they were to perform at their best in the respective groups. At t3 the presence of an individual performance ranking was mentioned in the cover story. Mixed linear models (SPSS) and structural equation models for complex survey data (Mplus) were specified to estimate the effects of the individual performance rankings on the relationship between group-efficacy beliefs and performance motivation. Results A significant interaction effect for individual group-efficacy beliefs and the triathlon condition on performance motivation was found; the effect of group-efficacy beliefs on performance motivation being smaller with individual performance rankings available. The partial mediation of group attributes on performance motivation by group-efficacy beliefs disappeared with the announcement of individual performance rankings. Conclusion In teams low in task relevant abilities the disadvantageous effect of group-efficacy beliefs on performance motivation might be reduced by providing means of evaluating individual performances apart from a group’s overall performance. While it is believed that a common group goal is a core criterion for a well performing sport group future studies should also aim at the possible benefit of individualized goal setting in groups.

Change in physical activity after smoking cessation: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study

AIMS To estimate physical activity trajectories for people who quit smoking, and compare them to what would have been expected had smoking continued. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS A total of 5115 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) study, a population-based study of African American and European American people recruited at age 18-30 years in 1985/6 and followed over 25 years. MEASUREMENTS Physical activity was self-reported during clinical examinations at baseline (1985/6) and at years 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (2010/11); smoking status was reported each year (at examinations or by telephone, and imputed where missing). We used mixed linear models to estimate trajectories of physical activity under varying smoking conditions, with adjustment for participant characteristics and secular trends. FINDINGS We found significant interactions by race/sex (P = 0.02 for the interaction with cumulative years of smoking), hence we investigated the subgroups separately. Increasing years of smoking were associated with a decline in physical activity in black and white women and black men [e.g. coefficient for 10 years of smoking: -0.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20 to -0.07, P < 0.001 for white women]. An increase in physical activity was associated with years since smoking cessation in white men (coefficient 0.06; 95% CI = 0 to 0.13, P = 0.05). The physical activity trajectory for people who quit diverged progressively towards higher physical activity from the expected trajectory had smoking continued. For example, physical activity was 34% higher (95% CI = 18 to 52%; P < 0.001) for white women 10 years after stopping compared with continuing smoking for those 10 years (P = 0.21 for race/sex differences). CONCLUSIONS Smokers who quit have progressively higher levels of physical activity in the years after quitting compared with continuing smokers.

Internal bacterial colonization of implants: association with peri-implant bone loss

OBJECTIVES The aim of the present longitudinal study was to investigate bacterial colonization of the internal implant cavity and to evaluate a possible association with peri-implant bone loss. METHODS A total of 264 paper point samples were harvested from the intra-implant cavity of 66 implants in 26 patients immediately following implant insertion and after 3, 4, and 12 months. Samples were evaluated for Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Fusobacterium nucleatum, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotella intermedia, Treponema denticola, and Tannerella forsythia as well as total bacterial counts by real-time PCR. Bone loss was evaluated on standardized radiographs up to 25 months after implant insertion. For the statistical analysis of the data, mixed effects models were fitted. RESULTS There was an increase in the frequency of detection as well as in the mean counts of the selected bacteria over time. The evaluation of the target bacteria revealed a significant association of Pr. intermedia at 4 and 12 months with peri-implant bone loss at 25 months (4 months: P = 0.009; 12 months: P = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS The present study could demonstrate a progressive colonization by periodontopathogenic bacteria in the internal cavities of two-piece implants. The results suggest that internal colonization with Pr. intermedia was associated with peri-implant bone loss.

Habitat Choice and Female Preference in a Polymorphic Stickleback Population

Background: A small pond, c. 90 years old, near Bern, Switzerland contains a population of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) with two distinct male phenotypes. Males of one type are large, and red, and nest in the shallow littoral zone. The males of the other are small and orange, and nest offshore at slightly greater depth. The females in this population are phenotypically highly variable but cannot easily be assigned to either male type. Question: Is the existence of two sympatric male morphs maintained by substrate-associated male nest site choice and facilitated by female mate preferences? Organisms: Male stickleback caught individually at their breeding sites. Females caught with minnow traps. Methods: In experimental tanks, we simulated the slope and substrate of the two nesting habitats. We then placed individual males in a tank and observed in which habitat the male would build his nest. In a simultaneous two-stimulus choice design, we gave females the choice between a large, red male and a small, orange one. We measured female morphology and used linear mixed effect models to determine whether female preference correlated with female morphology. Results: Both red and orange males preferred nesting in the habitat that simulated the slightly deeper offshore condition. This is the habitat occupied by the small, orange males in the pond itself. The proportion of females that chose a small orange male was similar to that which chose a large red male. Several aspects of female phenotype correlated with the male type that a female preferred.

In Utero Exposure to Antiretroviral Drugs: Effect on Birth Weight and Growth Among HIV-exposed Uninfected Children in Brazil.

BACKGROUND There are concerns about the effects of in utero exposure to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) on the development of HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU) children. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether in utero exposure to ARVs is associated with lower birth weight/height and reduced growth during the first 2 years of life. METHODS This cohort study was conducted among HEU infants born between 1996 and 2010 in Tertiary children's hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Weight was measured by mechanical scale, and height was measured by measuring board. Z-scores for weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-length were calculated. We modeled trajectories by mixed-effects models and adjusted for mother's age, CD4 cell count, viral load, year of birth and family income. RESULTS A total of 588 HEU infants were included of whom 155 (26%) were not exposed to ARVs, 114 (19%) were exposed early (first trimester) and 319 (54%) later. WAZ were lower among infants exposed early compared with infants exposed later: adjusted differences were -0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.99 to -0.04, P = 0.02) at birth and -0.22 (95% CI: -0.47 to 0.04, P = 0.10) during follow-up. LAZ were lower during follow-up: -0.35 (95% CI: -0.63 to -0.08, P = 0.01). There were no differences in weight-for-length scores. Z-scores of infants exposed late during pregnancy were similar to unexposed infants. CONCLUSIONS In HEU children, early exposure to ARVs was associated with lower WAZ at birth and lower LAZ up to 2 years of life. Growth of HEU children needs to be monitored closely.

Assessing homogeneity in workplace exposure under stationary and non-stationary scenarios

In most epidemiological studies, historical monitoring data are scant and must be pooled to identify occupational groups with homogeneous exposures. Homogeneity of exposure is generally assessed in a group of workers who share a common job title or work in a common area. While published results suggest that the degree of homogeneity varies widely across job groups, less is known whether such variation differs across industrial sectors, classes of contaminants, or in the methods used to group workers. Relying upon a compilation of results presented in the literature, patterns of homogeneity among nearly 500 occupational groups of workers were evaluated on the basis of type of industry and agent. Additionally, effects of the characteristics of the sampling strategy on estimated indicators of homogeneity of exposure were assessed. ^ Exposure profiles for occupational groups of workers have typically been assessed under the assumption of stationarity, i.e., the mean exposure level and variance of the distribution that describes the underlying population of exposures are constant over time. Yet, the literature has shown that occupational exposures have declined in the last decades. This renders traditional methods for the description of exposure profiles inadequate. Thus, work was needed to develop appropriate methods to assess homogeneity for groups of workers whose exposures have changed over time. A study was carried out applying mixed effects models with a term for temporal trend to appropriately describe exposure profiles of groups of workers in the nickel-producing industry over a 20-year period. Using a sub-set of groups of nickel-exposed workers, another study was conducted to develop and apply a framework to evaluate the assumption of stationarity of the variances in the presence of systematic changes in exposure levels over time. ^

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

Understanding disparities in emergency department visits for asthma

Asthma is the most common chronic disorder in childhood, affecting an estimated 6.2 million children under 18 years (1). The purpose of this study was to look at individual- and community-level characteristics simultaneously to examine and explain the factors that contribute to the use of emergency department services by children 18 years old or less and to determine if there was an association between air quality and ED visits in the same population, from 2005-2007 in Houston/Harris County. Data were collected from the Houston Safety Net Hospital Emergency Department Use Study and the 2000 US Census. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models and mixed effects models were used to analyze data that was collected during the study period.^ There were 704,902 ED visits made by children 18 and younger, who were living in Houston from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2007. Of those, 19,098 had a primary discharge diagnosis of asthma. Asthma ED visits varied by season, with proportions of ED visits for asthma highest from September-December. African-American children were 2.6 (95% CI, 2.43-2.66) times more likely to have an ED visit for asthma compared to White children. Poverty, single parent headed households, and younger age all a greater likelihood of having gone to the ED for asthma treatment. Compared to Whites living in lightly-monitored pollution areas, African-Americans and Hispanics living in heavily monitored areas were 1.15 (95% CI, 1.04-1.28) times more likely to have an ED visit for asthma.^ Race and poverty seem to account for a large portion of the disparities in ED use found among children. This was true even after accounting for multiple individual- and community-level variables. These results suggest that racial disparities in asthma continue to pose risks for African American children, and they point to the need for additional research into potential explanations and remedies. Programs to reduce inappropriate ED use must be sensitive to an array of complex socioeconomic issues within minority and income populations. ^

The role of cardiorespiratory fitness and weight status on 24-hr ambulatory blood pressure among adolescents

BACKGROUND: This observational research study investigated the association of cardiorespiratory fitness and weight status with repeated measures of 24-hr ambulatory blood pressure (24-hr ABP). Little is known about these associations and few data exist examining the interaction between cardiorespiratory fitness and weight status and the contributions of each on 24-hr ABP in youth. ^ METHODS: This research study used secondary analysis data from the "Adolescent Blood Pressure and Anger: Ethnic Differences" study. This current study sample included 374 African-American, Anglo-American, and Mexican-American adolescents 11-16 years of age. Mixed-effects models were used for testing the relationship between weight status and cardiorespiratory fitness and repeated measures of ambulatory blood pressure over 24 hours (24-hr ABP). Weight status was categorized into "normal weight" (BMI<85th percentile), "overweight" (85th≤BMI<95th), and "obese" (BMI≥95th). Cardiorespiratory fitness, determined by heart rate recovery (HRR), was defined as the difference between heart rate at peak exercise and heart rate at two minutes post-exercise, as measured by a height-adjusted step test and stratified into two groups: low and high fitness, using a median split. Ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) was monitored for a 24-hr period on a school day using the Spacelabs ambulatory monitor (Model 90207). Blood pressure and heart rate were recorded at 30 minute intervals throughout the day of recording and at 60 minute intervals during sleep. ^ RESULTS: No significant associations were found between weight status and mean 24-hr systolic blood pressure (SBP) or mean arterial pressure (MAP). A significant and inverse association between weight status and mean 24-hr diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was revealed. Cardiorespiratory fitness was significantly and inversely associated with mean 24-hr ABP. High fitness adolescents had significantly lower mean 24-hr SPB, DBP, and MAP measurements than low fitness adolescents. Compared to low fitness adolescents, high fitness adolescents had 1.90 mmHg, 1.16 mmHg, and 1.68 mmHg lower mean 24-hr SBP, DBP, and MAP, respectively. Additionally, high fitness appeared to afford protection from higher mean 24-hr SBP and MAP, irrespective of weight status. Among normal weight adolescents, low fitness resulted in higher mean 24-hr SBP and MAP, compared to their fit counterparts. Among adolescents categorized as high fitness, increasing weight status did not appear to result in higher mean 24-hr SBP or MAP. Cardiorespiratory fitness, rather than weight status, appeared to be a more dominant predictor of mean 24-hr SBP and MAP. ^ CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this research is the first study to investigate the independent and combined contributions of cardiorespiratory fitness and weight status on 24-hr ABP, all objectively measured. The results of this study may potentially guide and inform future research. It appears that early cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention should focus on improving cardiorespiratory fitness levels among all adolescents, particularly those adolescents least fit, regardless of their weight status, while obesity prevention efforts continue.^

Dive depth frequency of 23 adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Marion Island and King George Island

Access to different environments may lead to inter-population behavioural changes within a species that allow populations to exploit their immediate environments. Elephant seals from Marion Island (MI) and King George Island (KGI) (Isla 25 de Mayo) forage in different oceanic environments and evidently employ different foraging strategies. This study elucidates some of the factors influencing the diving behaviour of male southern elephant seals from these populations tracked between 1999 and 2002. Mixed-effects models were used to determine the influence of bathymetry, population of origin, body length (as a proxy for size) and individual variation on the diving behaviour of adult male elephant seals from the two populations. Males from KGI and MI showed differences in all dive parameters. MI males dived deeper and longer (median: 652.0 m and 34.00 min) than KGI males (median: 359.1 m and 25.50 min). KGI males appeared to forage both benthically and pelagically while MI males in this study rarely reached depths close to the seafloor and appeared to forage pelagically. Model outputs indicate that males from the two populations showed substantial differences in their dive depths, even when foraging in areas of similar water depth. Whereas dive depths were not significantly influenced by the size of the animals, size played a significant role in dive durations, though this was also influenced by the population that elephant seals originated from. This study provides some support for inter-population differences in dive behaviour of male southern elephant seals.

(Table 2) Carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios in blood sampled from arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) on Bylot Island between 2003-2008

Inter-individual variation in diet within generalist animal populations is thought to be a widespread phenomenon but its potential causes are poorly known. Inter-individual variation can be amplified by the availability and use of allochthonous resources, i.e., resources coming from spatially distinct ecosystems. Using a wild population of arctic fox as a study model, we tested hypotheses that could explain variation in both population and individual isotopic niches, used here as proxy for the trophic niche. The arctic fox is an opportunistic forager, dwelling in terrestrial and marine environments characterized by strong spatial (arctic-nesting birds) and temporal (cyclic lemmings) fluctuations in resource abundance. First, we tested the hypothesis that generalist foraging habits, in association with temporal variation in prey accessibility, should induce temporal changes in isotopic niche width and diet. Second, we investigated whether within-population variation in the isotopic niche could be explained by individual characteristics (sex and breeding status) and environmental factors (spatiotemporal variation in prey availability). We addressed these questions using isotopic analysis and Bayesian mixing models in conjunction with linear mixed-effects models. We found that: i) arctic fox populations can simultaneously undergo short-term (i.e., within a few months) reduction in both isotopic niche width and inter-individual variability in isotopic ratios, ii) individual isotopic ratios were higher and more representative of a marine-based diet for non-breeding than breeding foxes early in spring, and iii) lemming population cycles did not appear to directly influence the diet of individual foxes after taking their breeding status into account. However, lemming abundance was correlated to proportion of breeding foxes, and could thus indirectly affect the diet at the population scale.

Water temperature data from southern elephant seal from Marion Island with links to datasets

As the Antarctic Circumpolar Current crosses the South-West Indian Ocean Ridge, it creates an extensive eddy field characterised by high sea level anomaly variability. We investigated the diving behaviour of female southern elephant seals from Marion Island during their post-moult migrations in relation to this eddy field in order to determine its role in the animals' at-sea dispersal. Most seals dived within the region significantly more often than predicted by chance, and these dives were generally shallower and shorter than dives outside the eddy field. Mixed effects models estimated reductions of 44.33 ± 3.00 m (maximum depth) and 6.37 ± 0.10 min (dive duration) as a result of diving within the region, along with low between-seal variability (maximum depth: 5.5 % and dive duration: 8.4 %). U-shaped dives increased in frequency inside the eddy field, whereas W-shaped dives with multiple vertical movements decreased. Results suggest that Marion Island's adult female elephant seals' dives are characterised by lowered cost-of-transport when they encounter the eddy field during the start and end of their post-moult migrations. This might result from changes in buoyancy associated with varying body condition upon leaving and returning to the island. Our results do not suggest that the eddy field is a vital foraging ground for Marion Island's southern elephant seals. However, because seals preferentially travel through this area and likely forage opportunistically while minimising transport costs, we hypothesise that climate-mediated changes in the nature or position of this region may alter the seals' at-sea dispersal patterns.