Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

The efficacy of releasing caught Nephrops as a management measure

The objective of this work was to examine if a policy of releasing caught lobsters, Nephrops, could be used to protect the Nephrops population off the south coast of Portugal. Such a measure, as an alternative to closing the fishery completely, would allow the continued operation of the fleet in targeting other species, resulting in a reduced economic and social impact compared with a complete closure. For such a proposal to be considered, information on survival rates of released lobsters is required. Nephrops were sampled randomly from the catch of commercial trawlers and put in cages, in an area with similar conditions to the area where they were caught, in order to evaluate survival rates. The cages were immersed for periods of 5–9 days. Several factors were considered to potentially affect survival, including duration of the tow and season, and biological characteristics of the individuals (e.g. size, sex and ovigerous condition). Survival was only affected by season (increased mortality inwarm months).Aglobal estimate of survival of released lobsters, taking into consideration survival and proportion of the catches for each season, was 35%. Simulation models were used to investigate the potential effect of a release measure on the population. Assuming the number of recaptured individuals is negligible, Z (instantaneous total mortality rate)would be considerably reduced if a release policy was implemented. This is particularly important if the levels of exploitation are high, which seems to be the case in this stock. It is our belief that the implementation of amanagement measure of returning all caught lobsters to the sea is worth considering as a means of aiding recovery of the resource. This measure would have the side effect of discouraging the choice of Nephrops as a target species, potentially reducing the fishing mortality even more significantly.

Parametrização do modelo CSM-CERES-Maize para uma cultivar de alta produtividade.

2016

Períodos de semeadura de milho, sob regime de sequeiro na safra, em Minas Gerais.

2016

Simulação da janela de semeadura para o milho irrigado no Estado de Minas Gerais.

2016

Simulação da produtividade da água para a cultura do milho de sequeiro em municípios de Minas Gerais.

2016

Development and testing of INTRAS, a microscopic freeway simulation model. Volume 4: program documentation. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Development and testing of INTRAS, a microscopic freeway simulation model. Volume 1: program design, parameter calibration and freeway dynamics component development. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Development and testing of INTRAS, a microscopic freeway simulation model. Volume 2: user's manual. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Microscopic modelling of freeway operations

Freeways are divided roadways designed to facilitate the uninterrupted movement of motor vehicles. However, many freeways now experience demand flows in excess of capacity, leading to recurrent congestion. The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 1994) uses empirical macroscopic relationships between speed, flow and density to quantify freeway operations and performance. Capacity may be predicted as the maximum uncongested flow achievable. Although they are effective tools for design and analysis, macroscopic models lack an understanding of the nature of processes taking place in the system. Szwed and Smith (1972, 1974) and Makigami and Matsuo (1990) have shown that microscopic modelling is also applicable to freeway operations. Such models facilitate an understanding of the processes whilst providing for the assessment of performance, through measures of capacity and delay. However, these models are limited to only a few circumstances. The aim of this study was to produce more comprehensive and practical microscopic models. These models were required to accurately portray the mechanisms of freeway operations at the specific locations under consideration. The models needed to be able to be calibrated using data acquired at these locations. The output of the models needed to be able to be validated with data acquired at these sites. Therefore, the outputs should be truly descriptive of the performance of the facility. A theoretical basis needed to underlie the form of these models, rather than empiricism, which is the case for the macroscopic models currently used. And the models needed to be adaptable to variable operating conditions, so that they may be applied, where possible, to other similar systems and facilities. It was not possible to produce a stand-alone model which is applicable to all facilities and locations, in this single study, however the scene has been set for the application of the models to a much broader range of operating conditions. Opportunities for further development of the models were identified, and procedures provided for the calibration and validation of the models to a wide range of conditions. The models developed, do however, have limitations in their applicability. Only uncongested operations were studied and represented. Driver behaviour in Brisbane was applied to the models. Different mechanisms are likely in other locations due to variability in road rules and driving cultures. Not all manoeuvres evident were modelled. Some unusual manoeuvres were considered unwarranted to model. However the models developed contain the principal processes of freeway operations, merging and lane changing. Gap acceptance theory was applied to these critical operations to assess freeway performance. Gap acceptance theory was found to be applicable to merging, however the major stream, the kerb lane traffic, exercises only a limited priority over the minor stream, the on-ramp traffic. Theory was established to account for this activity. Kerb lane drivers were also found to change to the median lane where possible, to assist coincident mergers. The net limited priority model accounts for this by predicting a reduced major stream flow rate, which excludes lane changers. Cowan's M3 model as calibrated for both streams. On-ramp and total upstream flow are required as input. Relationships between proportion of headways greater than 1 s and flow differed for on-ramps where traffic leaves signalised intersections and unsignalised intersections. Constant departure onramp metering was also modelled. Minimum follow-on times of 1 to 1.2 s were calibrated. Critical gaps were shown to lie between the minimum follow-on time, and the sum of the minimum follow-on time and the 1 s minimum headway. Limited priority capacity and other boundary relationships were established by Troutbeck (1995). The minimum average minor stream delay and corresponding proportion of drivers delayed were quantified theoretically in this study. A simulation model was constructed to predict intermediate minor and major stream delays across all minor and major stream flows. Pseudo-empirical relationships were established to predict average delays. Major stream average delays are limited to 0.5 s, insignificant compared with minor stream delay, which reach infinity at capacity. Minor stream delays were shown to be less when unsignalised intersections are located upstream of on-ramps than signalised intersections, and less still when ramp metering is installed. Smaller delays correspond to improved merge area performance. A more tangible performance measure, the distribution of distances required to merge, was established by including design speeds. This distribution can be measured to validate the model. Merging probabilities can be predicted for given taper lengths, a most useful performance measure. This model was also shown to be applicable to lane changing. Tolerable limits to merging probabilities require calibration. From these, practical capacities can be estimated. Further calibration is required of traffic inputs, critical gap and minimum follow-on time, for both merging and lane changing. A general relationship to predict proportion of drivers delayed requires development. These models can then be used to complement existing macroscopic models to assess performance, and provide further insight into the nature of operations.

Stochastic models and simulation of ion channel dynamics

The behaviour of ion channels within cardiac and neuronal cells is intrinsically stochastic in nature. When the number of channels is small this stochastic noise is large and can have an impact on the dynamics of the system which is potentially an issue when modelling small neurons and drug block in cardiac cells. While exact methods correctly capture the stochastic dynamics of a system they are computationally expensive, restricting their inclusion into tissue level models and so approximations to exact methods are often used instead. The other issue in modelling ion channel dynamics is that the transition rates are voltage dependent, adding a level of complexity as the channel dynamics are coupled to the membrane potential. By assuming that such transition rates are constant over each time step, it is possible to derive a stochastic differential equation (SDE), in the same manner as for biochemical reaction networks, that describes the stochastic dynamics of ion channels. While such a model is more computationally efficient than exact methods we show that there are analytical problems with the resulting SDE as well as issues in using current numerical schemes to solve such an equation. We therefore make two contributions: develop a different model to describe the stochastic ion channel dynamics that analytically behaves in the correct manner and also discuss numerical methods that preserve the analytical properties of the model.

Experimental and computer simulation validation of ultrasound phase interference created by lateral inhomogeneity of transit time in replica bone marrow composite models

Purpose: The measurement of broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) in cancellous bone for the assessment of osteoporosis follows a parabolic-type dependence with bone volume fraction; having minima values corresponding to both entire bone and entire marrow. Langton has recently proposed that the primary BUA mechanism may be significant phase interference due to variations in propagation transit time through the test sample as detected over the phase-sensitive surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. This fundamentally simple concept assumes that the propagation of ultrasound through a complex solid : liquid composite sample such as cancellous bone may be considered by an array of parallel ‘sonic rays’. The transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated, being a minimum (tmin) solely through bone and a maximum (tmax) solely through marrow. A Transit Time Spectrum (TTS), ranging from tmin to tmax, may be defined describing the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing lateral inhomogeneity of transit time over the surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. Phase interference may result from interaction of ‘sonic rays’ of differing transit times. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that there is a dependence of phase interference upon the lateral inhomogenity of transit time by comparing experimental measurements and computer simulation predictions of ultrasound propagation through a range of relatively simplistic solid:liquid models exhibiting a range of lateral inhomogeneities. Methods: A range of test models was manufactured using acrylic and water as surrogates for bone and marrow respectively. The models varied in thickness in one dimension normal to the direction of propagation, hence exhibiting a range of transit time lateral inhomogeneities, ranging from minimal (single transit time) to maximal (wedge; ultimately the limiting case where each sonic ray has a unique transit time). For the experimental component of the study, two unfocused 1 MHz ¾” broadband diameter transducers were utilized in transmission mode; ultrasound signals were recorded for each of the models. The computer simulation was performed with Matlab, where the transit time and relative amplitude of each sonic ray was calculated. The transit time for each sonic ray was defined as the sum of transit times through acrylic and water components. The relative amplitude considered the reception area for each sonic ray along with absorption in the acrylic. To replicate phase-sensitive detection, all sonic rays were summed and the output signal plotted in comparison with the experimentally derived output signal. Results: From qualtitative and quantitative comparison of the experimental and computer simulation results, there is an extremely high degree of agreement of 94.2% to 99.0% between the two approaches, supporting the concept that propagation of an ultrasound wave, for the models considered, may be approximated by a parallel sonic ray model where the transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of ‘bone’ and ‘marrow’. Conclusions: This combined experimental and computer simulation study has successfully demonstrated that lateral inhomogeneity of transit time has significant potential for phase interference to occur if a phase-sensitive ultrasound receive transducer is implemented as in most commercial ultrasound bone analysis devices.