Exact tests for correlation and for the slope in simple linear regressions without making assumptions

We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.

A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.

Concomitant Cisplatin and Hyperfractionated Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer: Ten-year Follow-up of a Randomized Phase III Trial (SAKK 10/94)

Purpose/Objective(s): To analyze the long-term outcome of treatment with concomitant cisplatin and hyperfractionated radiotherapy in locally advanced head and neck cancer compared with hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone.Materials/Methods: From July 1994 to July 2000 a total of 224 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were randomized to either hyperfractionated radiotherapy (median dose 74.4 Gy; 1.2 Gy twice daily) or the same radiotherapy combined with two cycles of concomitant cisplatin (20mg/m2 for 5 consecutive days of weeks 1 and 5). The primary endpoint was time to any treatment failure; secondary endpoints were locoregional failure, metastatic failure, overall survival, and late toxicity assessed according to RTOG criteria. The trial was registered at the National Institutes of Health (www.clinicaltrials.gov; identifier number: NCT00002654).Results: Median follow-up was 9.5 years (range, 0.1 - 15.4 years). Median time to any treatment failure was not significantly different between treatment arms (p = 0.19). Locoregional control (p\0.05), distant metastasis-free survival (p = 0.02) and cancer specific survival (p = 0.03) were significantly improved in the combined treatment arm, with no difference in late toxicity between treatment arms. However, overall survival was not significantly different (p = 0.19). Conclusions: After long-term follow-up combined treatment with cisplatin and hyperfractionated, radiotherapy maintained an improved locoregional control, distant metastasis-free survival, and cancer specific survival as compared to hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone with no difference in late toxicity.Author Disclosure: P. Ghadjar, None; M. Simcock, None; G. Studer, None; A.S. Allal, None; M. Ozsahin, None; J. Bernier, None; M. To¨ pfer, None; F. Zimmermann, None; C. Glanzmann, None; D.M. Aebersold, None.

Implementing TURF analysis through binary linear programming

This paper introduces the approach of using Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency analysis (TURF) to design a product line through a binary linear programming model. This improves the efficiency of the search for the solution to the problem compared to the algorithms that have been used to date. The results obtained through our exact algorithm are presented, and this method shows to be extremely efficient both in obtaining optimal solutions and in computing time for very large instances of the problem at hand. Furthermore, the proposed technique enables the model to be improved in order to overcome the main drawbacks presented by TURF analysis in practice.

Restless bandits, linear programming relaxations and a primal-dual index heuristic

We develop a mathematical programming approach for the classicalPSPACE - hard restless bandit problem in stochastic optimization.We introduce a hierarchy of n (where n is the number of bandits)increasingly stronger linear programming relaxations, the lastof which is exact and corresponds to the (exponential size)formulation of the problem as a Markov decision chain, while theother relaxations provide bounds and are efficiently computed. Wealso propose a priority-index heuristic scheduling policy fromthe solution to the first-order relaxation, where the indices aredefined in terms of optimal dual variables. In this way wepropose a policy and a suboptimality guarantee. We report resultsof computational experiments that suggest that the proposedheuristic policy is nearly optimal. Moreover, the second-orderrelaxation is found to provide strong bounds on the optimalvalue.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

O Primal e o Dual na programação Linear

O tema da Programação Linear, com as suas particularizações do Problema dos Transportes e do Problema da Afectação de Recursos, é hoje estudado em cursos diversos onde uma disciplina de Investigação Operacional esteja presente. Trata-se, em última análise, de um problema de cálculo de extremos condicionados, seja de máximo ou de mínimo, que apresenta características muito particulares e de grande elegância simbólica. Também os Problemas dos Transportes e da Afectação de Recursos se podem resolver como problemas de Programação Linear, através do Algoritmo Simplex, embora seja preferível o recurso a algoritmos próprios, de muitíssimo maior simplicidade: o Algoritmo dos Transportes e o Algoritmo Húngaro, respectivamente. De molde a facilitar a compreensão do que realmente está em jogo, consideram-se aqui dois casos de determinação de extremos e de extremos condicionados, mas ao nível do final do ensino secundário.

Biosphere/lithosphere interface : microbially-mediated CaCO3 precipitation in hypersaline and freshwater environments

Abstract: Microbial mats very efficiently cycle elements, such as C, 0, N, S and H, which makes them key players of redox processes at the biosphere-lithosphere interface. They are characterized by high metabolic activities and high turnover rates (production and consumption) of biomass, which mainly consists of cell material and of extracellular organic matter (EOM). The EOM forms a matrix, embedding the microbial cells and fulfilling various functions within the microbial mat, including: mat attachment to surfaces; creation of micro-domains within the mat; physical stabilization under hy- drodynamic stress and the protection of the cells in multiple other stress conditions. EOM mainly consists of polysaccharides, amino acids, and a variety of chemical func-tional groups {e.g., -C00H, - SH -OH). These groups strongly bind cations such as Ca2+ and Mg2+ and thus exert a strong control on carbonate mineral formation within the microbial mat. A feedback mechanism between community metabolisms, their prod¬ucts, and the surrounding physicochemical microenvironment thus influences the de¬gree of carbonate saturation favoring either carbonate precipitation or dissolution. We investigated the driving forces and mechanisms of microbialite formation in the Sari ne River, FR, Switzerland, the hypersaline lake, Big Pond, Bahamas and in labo¬ratory experiments. The two fundamentally different natural systems allowed us to compare the geochemical conditions and microbial metabolisms, necessary for car¬bonate formation in microbial mats. Although carbonates are oversaturated in both environments, precipitation does not occur on physicochemical substrates (i.e. out¬side the microbial mats). In the Sarine a high crystal nucleation threshold exceeds the carbonate saturation, despite the high carbonate alkalinity in the water column. Cyanobacterial photosynthesis strongly locally enhances the carbonate alkalinity, whereas the EOM attract and immobilize calcium, which increases the saturation state and finally leads to carbonate precipitation within the EOM (in this case the cyanobacterial sheath) as nucleation template. In Big Pond, the presence of calcium- chelating anions (i.e. sulfate) and EOM, as well as the presence of magnesium, lowers the calcium activity in the water column and mat, and thus inhibits carbonate pre¬cipitation. Coupled with other heterotrophic metabolisms, sulfate reduction uses the EOM as carbon source, degrading it. The resulting EOM consumption creates alkalin¬ity, releases calcium and consumes sulfate in mat-micro domains, which leads to the formation of carbonate layers at the top of the microbial mat. Résumé: Interface biosphère/lithosphère: médiation microbienne de la précipitation de CaC03 dans des environnements en eaux douces et hypersalines Les tapis microbiens engendrent une circulation très efficace des éléments, tels que C, 0, N, S et H, ce qui en fait des acteurs clé pour les processus d'oxydoréduction à l'inter¬face biosphère-lithosphère. Ils sont caractérisés par des taux élevés d'activité méta¬bolique, ainsi que par la production et la consommation de biomasse, principalement constituée de cellules microbiennes et de matière organique extracellulaire (MOE). Dans un tapis microbien, les cellules microbiennes sont enveloppées par une matrice de MOE qui a différentes fonctions dont l'attachement du tapis aux surfaces, la créa¬tion de micro-domaines dans le tapis, la stabilisation physique en situation de stress hydrodynamique, et la protection des cellules dans de multiples autres conditions de stress. La MOE se compose principalement de polysaccharides, d'acides aminés, et d'une variété de groupes fonctionnels chimiques (par exemple, COOH, -SH et -OH). Ces groupes se lient fortement aux cations, tels que Ca2+ et Mg2+, et exercent ainsi un contrôle fort sur la formation de CaC03 dans le tapis microbien. Un mécanisme de rétroaction, entre les métabolismes de la communauté microbienne, leurs produits, et le microenvironnement physico-chimique, influence le degré de saturation de car¬bonate, favorisant soit leur précipitation, soit leur dissolution. Nous avons étudié le moteur et les mécanismes de minéralisation dans des tapis de la Sarine, FR, Suisse et du lac hypersalin, Big Pond, aux Bahamas, ainsi que durant des expériences en laboratoire. Les deux systèmes naturels, fondamentalement dif¬férents, nous ont permis de comparer les conditions géochimiques et les métabolis¬mes nécessaires à la formation des carbonates dans des tapis microbiens. Bien que les carbonates soient sursaturés dans les deux environnements, la précipitation ne se produit pas sur des substrats physico-chimiques (en dehors du tapis microbien). Dans la Sarine, malgré un taux d'alcalinité élevé, les valeurs de seuil pour la nucléa- tion de carbonates sont plus hautes que la saturation du carbonate. La photosynthèse cyanobactérienne augmente localement l'alcalinité, alors que la MOE attire et immo¬bilise le calcium, ce qui augmente l'état de saturation et conduit finalement à la pré¬cipitation des carbonates, en utilisant la MOE comme substrat de nucléation. À Big Pond, la présence de chélateurs de calcium, notamment les anions (p.ex. le sulfate) et la MOE, ainsi que la présence de magnésium, réduit l'activité du calcium et inhibe en conséquence la précipitation des carbonates. Couplée avec d'autres métabolismes hétérotrophes, la réduction des sulfates utilise la MOE comme source de carbone, en la dégradant. Cette consommation de MOE crée l'alcalinité, consomme des sulfates et libère du calcium dans des micro-domaines, conduisant à la formation de couches de carbonates dans le haut du tapis microbien.

Panitumumab plus radiotherapy versus chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (CONCERT-2): a randomised, controlled, open-label phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare panitumumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody against EGFR, plus radiotherapy with chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck. METHODS: In this international, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial, we recruited patients with locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck from 22 sites in eight countries worldwide. Patients aged 18 years and older with stage III, IVa, or IVb, previously untreated, measurable (≥10 mm for at least one dimension), locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (non-nasopharygeal) and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1 were randomly assigned (2:3) by an independent vendor to open-label chemoradiotherapy (two cycles of cisplatin 100 mg/m(2) during radiotherapy) or to radiotherapy plus panitumumab (three cycles of panitumumab 9 mg/kg every 3 weeks administered with radiotherapy) using a stratified randomisation with a block size of five. All patients received 70-72 Gy to gross tumour and 54 Gy to areas of subclinical disease with accelerated fractionation radiotherapy. The primary endpoint was local-regional control at 2 years, analysed in all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of their assigned protocol-specific treatment (chemotherapy, radiation, or panitumumab). The trial is closed and this is the final analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00547157. FINDINGS: Between Nov 30, 2007, and Nov 16, 2009, 152 patients were enrolled, and 151 received treatment (61 in the chemoradiotherapy group and 90 in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group). Local-regional control at 2 years was 61% (95% CI 47-72) in the chemoradiotherapy group and 51% (40-62) in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group. The most frequent grade 3-4 adverse events were mucosal inflammation (25 [40%] of 62 patients in the chemoradiotherapy group vs 37 [42%] of 89 patients in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group), dysphagia (20 [32%] vs 36 [40%]), and radiation skin injury (seven [11%] vs 21 [24%]). Serious adverse events were reported in 25 (40%) of 62 patients in the chemoradiotherapy group and in 30 (34%) of 89 patients in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group. INTERPRETATION: Panitumumab cannot replace cisplatin in the combined treatment with radiotherapy for unresected stage III-IVb squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck, and the role of EGFR inhibition in locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck needs to be reassessed. FUNDING: Amgen.

The fixation of locally beneficial alleles in a metapopulation.

Extinction, recolonization, and local adaptation are common in natural spatially structured populations. Understanding their effect upon genetic variation is important for systems such as genetically modified organism management or avoidance of drug resistance. Theoretical studies on the effect of extinction and recolonization upon genetic variance started appearing in the 1970s, but the role of local adaptation still has no good theoretical basis. Here we develop a model of a haploid species in a metapopulation in which a locally adapted beneficial allele is introduced. We study the effect of different spatial patterns of local adaptation, and different metapopulation dynamics, upon the fixation probability of the beneficial allele. Controlling for the average selection pressure, we find that a small area of positive selection can significantly increase the global probability of fixation. However, local adaptation becomes less important as extinction rate increases. Deme extinction and recolonization have a spatial smoothing effect that effectively reduces spatial variation in fitness.

Comparação entre os métodos da transeção linear e fotográfico na avaliação de cobertura vegetal morta, sob dois métodos de preparo, após a colheita da soja

A eficácia da cobertura vegetal morta no controle da erosão pode ser avaliada através de dois indicadores principais: a porcentagem de cobertura do solo pelos resíduos culturais e sua persistência sobre a superfície ao longo do tempo. O preparo do solo, por sua vez, pode exercer influência significativa sobre esses indicadores. O trabalho foi realizado no campo, no município de Eldorado do Sul, Depressão Central do Rio Grande do Sul. Avaliou-se a persistência da cobertura vegetal morta durante um período de pousio, que foi de maio de 1989 a abril de 1990, em sucessão à cultura da soja. Os resíduos dessa cultura foram manejados sem preparo, por escarificação e por gradagem. A porcentagem de cobertura do solo pelos resíduos culturais foi quantificada pelo método fotográfico e pelo da transeção linear. A cultura da soja produziu cobertura vegetal morta em pequena quantidade e de baixa durabilidade. A distribuição dos resíduos na superfície, sem preparo do solo, foi o tratamento que possibilitou melhor correlação (R²) entre os índices de cobertura obtidos pelos dois métodos testados. Nas áreas sob gradagem ou escarificação do solo, os índices de cobertura obtidos pelo método fotográfico foram superiores aos da transeção linear, enquanto, na área sem preparo do solo, houve similaridade entre os resultados dos dois métodos.

Concomitant chemoradiotherapy versus acceleration of radiotherapy with or without concomitant chemotherapy in locally advanced head and neck carcinoma (GORTEC 99-02): an open-label phase 3 randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Concomitant chemoradiotherapy and accelerated radiotherapy independently improve outcomes for patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous-cell carcinoma (HNSCC). We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of a combination of these approaches. METHODS: In our open-label phase 3 randomised trial, we enrolled patients with locally advanced, stage III and IV (non-metastatic) HNSCC and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2. We randomly allocated patients centrally with a computer program (with centre, T stage, N stage, and localisation as minimisation factors) in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive conventional chemoradiotherapy (70 Gy in 7 weeks plus three cycles of 4 days' concomitant carboplatin-fluorouracil), accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy (70 Gy in 6 weeks plus two cycles of 5 days' concomitant carboplatin-fluorouracil), or very accelerated radiotherapy alone (64·8 Gy [1·8 Gy twice daily] in 3·5 weeks). The primary endpoint, progression-free survival (PFS), was assessed in all enrolled patients. This trial is completed. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00828386. FINDINGS: Between Feb 29, 2000, and May 9, 2007, we randomly allocated 279 patients to receive conventional chemoradiotherapy, 280 to accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy, and 281 to very accelerated radiotherapy. Median follow-up was 5·2 years (IQR 4·9-6·2); rates of chemotherapy and radiotherapy compliance were good in all groups. Accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy offered no PFS benefit compared with conventional chemoradiotherapy (HR 1·02, 95% CI 0·84-1·23; p=0·88) or very accelerated radiotherapy (0·83, 0·69-1·01; p=0·060); conventional chemoradiotherapy improved PFS compared with very accelerated radiotherapy (0·82, 0·67-0·99; p=0·041). 3-year PFS was 37·6% (95% CI 32·1-43·4) after conventional chemoradiotherapy, 34·1% (28·7-39·8) after accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy, and 32·2% (27·0-37·9) after very accelerated radiotherapy. More patients in the very accelerated radiotherapy group had RTOG grade 3-4 acute mucosal toxicity (226 [84%] of 268 patients) compared with accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy (205 [76%] of 271 patients) or conventional chemoradiotherapy (180 [69%] of 262; p=0·0001). 158 (60%) of 265 patients in the conventional chemoradiotherapy group, 176 (64%) of 276 patients in the accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy group, and 190 (70%) of 272 patients in the very accelerated radiotherapy group were intubated with feeding tubes during treatment (p=0·045). INTERPRETATION: Chemotherapy has a substantial treatment effect given concomitantly with radiotherapy and acceleration of radiotherapy cannot compensate for the absence of chemotherapy. We noted the most favourable outcomes for conventional chemoradiotherapy, suggesting that acceleration of radiotherapy is probably not beneficial in concomitant chemoradiotherapy schedules. FUNDING: French Ministry of Health.

A phase 2 randomized trial of radiotherapy (RT) plus panitumumab compared to chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN): interim pooled safety analysis

Background: Panitumumab (pmab), a fully human monoclonal antibody against the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), is indicated as monotherapy for treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This ongoing study is designed to assess the efficacy and safety of pmab in combination with radiotherapy (PRT) compared to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) as initial treatment of unresected, locally advanced SCCHN (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00547157). Methods: This is a phase 2, open-label, randomized, multicenter study. Eligible patients (pts) were randomized 2:3 to receive cisplatin 100 mg/m2 on days 1 and 22 of RT or pmab 9.0 mg/kg on days 1, 22, and 43. Accelerated RT (70 to 72 Gy − delivered over 6 to 6.5 weeks) was planned for all pts and was delivered either by intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) modality or by three-dimensional conformal (3D-CRT) modality. The primary endpoint is local-regional control (LRC) rate at 2 years. Key secondary endpoints include PFS, OS, and safety. An external, independent data monitoring committee conducts planned safety and efficacy reviews during the course of the trial. Results: Pooled data from this planned interim safety analysis includes the first 52 of the 150 planned pts; 44 (84.6%) are male; median (range) age is 57 (33−77) years; ECOG PS 0: 65%, PS 1: 35%; 20 (39%) pts received IMRT, and 32 (61%) pts received 3D-CRT. Fifty (96%) pts completed RT, and 50 pts received RT per protocol without a major deviation. The median (range) total RT dose administered was 72 (64−74) Gy. The most common grade _ 3 adverse events graded using the CTCAE version 3.0 are shown (Table). Conclusions: After the interim safety analysis, CONCERT-2 continues per protocol. Study enrollment is estimated to be completed by October 2009.