Using high-frequency water quality data to assess sampling strategies for the EU Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that the ecological and chemical status of water bodies in Europe should be assessed, and action taken where possible to ensure that at least "good" quality is attained in each case by 2015. This paper is concerned with the accuracy and precision with which chemical status in rivers can be measured given certain sampling strategies, and how this can be improved. High-frequency (hourly) chemical data from four rivers in southern England were subsampled to simulate different sampling strategies for four parameters used for WFD classification: dissolved phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, pH and water temperature. These data sub-sets were then used to calculate the WFD classification for each site. Monthly sampling was less precise than weekly sampling, but the effect on WFD classification depended on the closeness of the range of concentrations to the class boundaries. In some cases, monthly sampling for a year could result in the same water body being assigned to three or four of the WFD classes with 95% confidence, due to random sampling effects, whereas with weekly sampling this was one or two classes for the same cases. In the most extreme case, the same water body could have been assigned to any of the five WFD quality classes. Weekly sampling considerably reduces the uncertainties compared to monthly sampling. The width of the weekly sampled confidence intervals was about 33% that of the monthly for P species and pH, about 50% for dissolved oxygen, and about 67% for water temperature. For water temperature, which is assessed as the 98th percentile in the UK, monthly sampling biases the mean downwards by about 1 °C compared to the true value, due to problems of assessing high percentiles with limited data. Low-frequency measurements will generally be unsuitable for assessing standards expressed as high percentiles. Confining sampling to the working week compared to all 7 days made little difference, but a modest improvement in precision could be obtained by sampling at the same time of day within a 3 h time window, and this is recommended. For parameters with a strong diel variation, such as dissolved oxygen, the value obtained, and thus possibly the WFD classification, can depend markedly on when in the cycle the sample was taken. Specifying this in the sampling regime would be a straightforward way to improve precision, but there needs to be agreement about how best to characterise risk in different types of river. These results suggest that in some cases it will be difficult to assign accurate WFD chemical classes or to detect likely trends using current sampling regimes, even for these largely groundwater-fed rivers. A more critical approach to sampling is needed to ensure that management actions are appropriate and supported by data.

A novel approach for distributed application scheduling based on prediction of communication events

The evolution of commodity computing lead to the possibility of efficient usage of interconnected machines to solve computationally-intensive tasks, which were previously solvable only by using expensive supercomputers. This, however, required new methods for process scheduling and distribution, considering the network latency, communication cost, heterogeneous environments and distributed computing constraints. An efficient distribution of processes over such environments requires an adequate scheduling strategy, as the cost of inefficient process allocation is unacceptably high. Therefore, a knowledge and prediction of application behavior is essential to perform effective scheduling. In this paper, we overview the evolution of scheduling approaches, focusing on distributed environments. We also evaluate the current approaches for process behavior extraction and prediction, aiming at selecting an adequate technique for online prediction of application execution. Based on this evaluation, we propose a novel model for application behavior prediction, considering chaotic properties of such behavior and the automatic detection of critical execution points. The proposed model is applied and evaluated for process scheduling in cluster and grid computing environments. The obtained results demonstrate that prediction of the process behavior is essential for efficient scheduling in large-scale and heterogeneous distributed environments, outperforming conventional scheduling policies by a factor of 10, and even more in some cases. Furthermore, the proposed approach proves to be efficient for online predictions due to its low computational cost and good precision. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relaxation of the electrical resistivity in Cr-doped Nd(0.5)Ca(0.5)MnO(3) single crystals

We have performed a systematic study of the time and temperature dependencies of the electrical resistivity (rho(T, t)) inNd(0.5)Ca(0.5)Mn(1-x)Cr(x)O(3) single crystals with x = 0.02 and 0.07 in order to examine the dynamics of the phase separation. The relaxation effects can be described by the combination of a rapid exponential increase/decrease with a slower logarithmic contribution at longer times. The experimental results suggest the existence of a large temperature window in which huge relaxation effects occur, and the relative fraction of the coexisting phases rapidly changes as a function of time, depending on the initial magnetic state of the sample. The rho(T, t) relaxation measurements were shown to be a suitable tool for probing the dynamical nature of the phase separation, in which magnetically distinct phases compete against each other in a wide temperature range. In addition, the features observed in the rho(T, t) curves were found to be in excellent agreement with both the magnetic properties and the structural transitions observed in these manganites.

Thermo-optics parameters measurements in photorefractive sillenite Bi(12)SiO(20) crystals by thermal lens technique

The present work reports on the thermo-optical properties of photorefractive sillenite Bi(12)SiO(20) (BSO) crystals obtained by applying the Thermal Lens Spectrometry technique (TLS). This crystals presents one high photorefractive sensitivity in the region blue-green spectra, since the measurements were carried out at two pump beam wavelengths (514.5 nm and 750 nm) to study of the light-induced effects in this material (thermal and/or photorefractive). We determine thermo-optical parameters like thermal diffusivity (D), thermal conductivity (K) and temperature coefficient of the optical path length change (ds/dT) in sillenite crystals. These aspects, for what we know, not was studied in details up to now using the lens spectrometry technique and are very important against of the promising potentiality of applications these crystals in non linear optics, real time holography and optical processing data.

New and improved results for packing identical unitary radius circles within triangles, rectangles and strips

The focus of study in this paper is the class of packing problems. More specifically, it deals with the placement of a set of N circular items of unitary radius inside an object with the aim of minimizing its dimensions. Differently shaped containers are considered, namely circles, squares, rectangles, strips and triangles. By means of the resolution of non-linear equations systems through the Newton-Raphson method, the herein presented algorithm succeeds in improving the accuracy of previous results attained by continuous optimization approaches up to numerical machine precision. The computer implementation and the data sets are available at http://www.ime.usp.br/similar to egbirgin/packing/. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd, All rights reserved.

Dynamic Changes in the Mental Rotation Network Revealed by Pattern Recognition Analysis of fMRI Data

We investigated the temporal dynamics and changes in connectivity in the mental rotation network through the application of spatio-temporal support vector machines (SVMs). The spatio-temporal SVM [Mourao-Miranda, J., Friston, K. J., et al. (2007). Dynamic discrimination analysis: A spatial-temporal SVM. Neuroimage, 36, 88-99] is a pattern recognition approach that is suitable for investigating dynamic changes in the brain network during a complex mental task. It does not require a model describing each component of the task and the precise shape of the BOLD impulse response. By defining a time window including a cognitive event, one can use spatio-temporal fMRI observations from two cognitive states to train the SVM. During the training, the SVM finds the discriminating pattern between the two states and produces a discriminating weight vector encompassing both voxels and time (i.e., spatio-temporal maps). We showed that by applying spatio-temporal SVM to an event-related mental rotation experiment, it is possible to discriminate between different degrees of angular disparity (0 degrees vs. 20 degrees, 0 degrees vs. 60 degrees, and 0 degrees vs. 100 degrees), and the discrimination accuracy is correlated with the difference in angular disparity between the conditions. For the comparison with highest accuracy (08 vs. 1008), we evaluated how the most discriminating areas (visual regions, parietal regions, supplementary, and premotor areas) change their behavior over time. The frontal premotor regions became highly discriminating earlier than the superior parietal cortex. There seems to be a parcellation of the parietal regions with an earlier discrimination of the inferior parietal lobe in the mental rotation in relation to the superior parietal. The SVM also identified a network of regions that had a decrease in BOLD responses during the 100 degrees condition in relation to the 0 degrees condition (posterior cingulate, frontal, and superior temporal gyrus). This network was also highly discriminating between the two conditions. In addition, we investigated changes in functional connectivity between the most discriminating areas identified by the spatio-temporal SVM. We observed an increase in functional connectivity between almost all areas activated during the 100 degrees condition (bilateral inferior and superior parietal lobe, bilateral premotor area, and SMA) but not between the areas that showed a decrease in BOLD response during the 100 degrees condition.

Unraveling Dynamical Heterogeneity in the Ionic Liquid 1-Butyl-3-methylimidazolium Chloride

Heterogeneous dynamics within a time range of nanoseconds was investigated by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of 1 -butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride ([bmim]Cl). After identifying groups of fast and slow ions, it was shown that the separation between the location of the center of mass and the center of charge of cations, d(CMCC), is a signature of such difference in ionic mobility. The distance d(CMCC) can be used as a signature because it relaxes in the time window of the dynamical heterogeneity. The relationship between the parameter dcmcc and conformations of the side alkyl chain in [bmim] is discussed. Since the relatively slow relaxation of dcmcc is a consequence of coexisting polar and nonpolar domains in the bulk, the MD simulations reveal a subtle interplay between structural and dynamical heterogeneity in ionic liquids.

Kinetics of autocatalytic acid hydrolysis of cellulose with crystalline and amorphous fractions

The acid hydrolysis of cellulose with crystalline and amorphous fractions is analyzed on the basis of autocatalytic model with a positive feedback of acid production from the degraded biopolymer. In the condition of low acid rate production compared with hydrolysis rate, both fraction of cellulose decrease exponentially with linear and cubic time dependence, and the normalized number of scissions per cellulose chain follows a sigmoid behavior with reaction time. The model predicts that self generated acidic compounds from cellulose accelerate the degradation of the biopolymer. However, if the acidic compounds produced are volatile species, then their release under low pressure will reduce the global rate of degradation of cellulose toward its intrinsic rate value determined by the residual acid catalyst present in the starting material.

Approximate solution of the autocatalytic hydrolysis of cellulose

Depolymerization of cellulose in homogeneous acidic medium is analyzed on the basis of autocatalytic model of hydrolysis with a positive feedback of acid production from the degraded biopolymer. The normalized number of scissions per cellulose chain, S(t)/nA degrees A = 1 - C(t)/C(0), follows a sigmoid behavior with reaction time t, and the cellulose concentration C(t) decreases exponentially with a linear and cubic time dependence, C(t) = C(0)exp[-at - bt (3)], where a and b are model parameters easier determined from data analysis.

Homo infidelis : preferências, assimetria de informação e signaling

No presente trabalho analisamos a eficácia de estratégias de signaling no contexto do relacionamento extra-diádico. Adicionalmente, mensuramos tanto as preferências declaradas quanto as reveladas pelos indivíduos em suas interações no ambiente virtual, comparando gêneros e países. Pesquisas anteriores sobre a temática extra-diádica apoiaram-se excessivamente sobre metodologias com substanciais lacunas: baixo número de observações, universo amostral restrito a estudantes universitários, viéis auto-declaratório comprometendo a correta interpretação da realidade dos fatos, e ausência de comparativos internacionais. Todas essas ponderações foram superadas no presente estudo, no qual analisamos 100 mil indivíduos, sendo 6 mil homens e 4 mil mulheres para cada um dos 10 países da amostra: Argentina, Austrália, Brasil, Canadá, Chile, Itália, México, Espanha, Reino Unido e Estados Unidos. Assim, temos um universo amostral plúrimo em termos de nacionalidade e número de observações. As evidências empíricas aqui reveladas mostraram que indivíduos do sexo masculino são mais ativos na conquista extra-conjugal, refutando a sugestão de uma convergência comportamental. Homens contactaram em média per capita 30 mulheres diferentes no horizonte temporal de 3 meses, contra 13 na direção oposta. Em termos de preferências físicas, constatamos que indivíduos de âmbos os gêneros procuram consumar a relação com uma contraparte idealizada. Mulheres mostram interesse por homens altos e experientes. Os homens querem mulheres mais novas e em forma. Homens baixos ou novos, e mulheres altas ou velhas, foram os mais rechaçados da amostra. Com relação às preferências declaradas e reveladas sobre o tipo de encontro extra-diádico almejado, tanto homens quanto mulheres mostraram maior interesse por um “caso rápido”, indicando o intuito de estabelecer um contato pouco aprofundado, casual, de cunho físico-sexual e com baixa vinculação afetiva. A opção menos escolhida foi “um caso virtual”, sugerindo a efetiva intenção de concretizar a infidelidade, e não mantê-la restrita ao ambiente virtual. Por fim, verificamos que as estratégias de signaling analisadas (por meio de foto, feedback e presente virtual) foram fortemente eficazes. Em todos os casos indivíduos que adotaram tais sinalizações obtiveram substancial vantagem competitiva em relação aos demais e passaram a exercer maior atratividade, recebendo elevada parcela de mensagens e contatos.

Três ensaios sobre política monetária e crédito

In the first essay, "Determinants of Credit Expansion in Brazil", analyzes the determinants of credit using an extensive bank level panel dataset. Brazilian economy has experienced a major boost in leverage in the first decade of 2000 as a result of a set factors ranging from macroeconomic stability to the abundant liquidity in international financial markets before 2008 and a set of deliberate decisions taken by President Lula's to expand credit, boost consumption and gain political support from the lower social strata. As relevant conclusions to our investigation we verify that: credit expansion relied on the reduction of the monetary policy rate, international financial markets are an important source of funds, payroll-guaranteed credit and investment grade status affected positively credit supply. We were not able to confirm the importance of financial inclusion efforts. The importance of financial sector sanity indicators of credit conditions cannot be underestimated. These results raise questions over the sustainability of this expansion process and financial stability in the future. The second essay, “Public Credit, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”, discusses the role of public credit. The supply of public credit in Brazil has successfully served to relaunch the economy after the Lehman-Brothers demise. It was later transformed into a driver for economic growth as well as a regulation device to force private banks to reduce interest rates. We argue that the use of public funds to finance economic growth has three important drawbacks: it generates inflation, induces higher loan rates and may induce financial instability. An additional effect is the prevention of market credit solutions. This study contributes to the understanding of the costs and benefits of credit as a fiscal policy tool. The third essay, “Bayesian Forecasting of Interest Rates: Do Priors Matter?”, discusses the choice of priors when forecasting short-term interest rates. Central Banks that commit to an Inflation Target monetary regime are bound to respond to inflation expectation spikes and product hiatus widening in a clear and transparent way by abiding to a Taylor rule. There are various reports of central banks being more responsive to inflationary than to deflationary shocks rendering the monetary policy response to be indeed non-linear. Besides that there is no guarantee that coefficients remain stable during time. Central Banks may switch to a dual target regime to consider deviations from inflation and the output gap. The estimation of a Taylor rule may therefore have to consider a non-linear model with time varying parameters. This paper uses Bayesian forecasting methods to predict short-term interest rates. We take two different approaches: from a theoretic perspective we focus on an augmented version of the Taylor rule and include the Real Exchange Rate, the Credit-to-GDP and the Net Public Debt-to-GDP ratios. We also take an ”atheoretic” approach based on the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure to model short-term interest. The selection of priors is particularly relevant for predictive accuracy yet, ideally, forecasting models should require as little a priori expert insight as possible. We present recent developments in prior selection, in particular we propose the use of hierarchical hyper-g priors for better forecasting in a framework that can be easily extended to other key macroeconomic indicators.

Técnicas de suavização aplicadas à caracterização de fontes sísmicas e à análise probabilística de ameaça sísmica

A avaliação de risco sísmico, fundamental para as decisões sobre as estruturas de obras de engenharia e mitigação de perdas, envolve fundamentalmente a análise de ameaça sísmica. Calcular a ameaça sísmica é o mesmo que calcular a probabilidade de que certo nível de determinada medida de intensidade em certo local durante um certo tempo seja excedido. Dependendo da complexidade da atividade geológica essas estimativas podem ser bas- tante sofisticadas. Em locais com baixa sismicidade, como é o caso do Brasil, o pouco tempo (geológico) de observação e a pouca quantidade de informação são fontes de muitas incer- tezas e dificuldade de análise pelos métodos mais clássicos e conhecidos que geralmente consideram, através de opiniões de especialistas, determinadas zonas sísmicas. Serão discutidas algumas técnicas de suavização e seus fundamentos como métodos al- ternativos ao zoneamento, em seguida se exemplifica suas aplicações no caso brasileiro.

Estrutura ANFIS modificada para identificação e controle de plantas com ampla faixa de operação e não linearidade acentuada

In this work a modification on ANFIS (Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System) structure is proposed to find a systematic method for nonlinear plants, with large operational range, identification and control, using linear local systems: models and controllers. This method is based on multiple model approach. This way, linear local models are obtained and then those models are combined by the proposed neurofuzzy structure. A metric that allows a satisfactory combination of those models is obtained after the structure training. It results on plant s global identification. A controller is projected for each local model. The global control is obtained by mixing local controllers signals. This is done by the modified ANFIS. The modification on ANFIS architecture allows the two neurofuzzy structures knowledge sharing. So the same metric obtained to combine models can be used to combine controllers. Two cases study are used to validate the new ANFIS structure. The knowledge sharing is evaluated in the second case study. It shows that just one modified ANFIS structure is necessary to combine linear models to identify, a nonlinear plant, and combine linear controllers to control this plant. The proposed method allows the usage of any identification and control techniques for local models and local controllers obtaining. It also reduces the complexity of ANFIS usage for identification and control. This work has prioritized simpler techniques for the identification and control systems to simplify the use of the method

Processos difusivos generalizados

We investigate several diffusion equations which extend the usual one by considering the presence of nonlinear terms or a memory effect on the diffusive term. We also considered a spatial time dependent diffusion coefficient. For these equations we have obtained a new classes of solutions and studied the connection of them with the anomalous diffusion process. We start by considering a nonlinear diffusion equation with a spatial time dependent diffusion coefficient. The solutions obtained for this case generalize the usual one and can be expressed in terms of the q-exponential and q-logarithm functions present in the generalized thermostatistics context (Tsallis formalism). After, a nonlinear external force is considered. For this case the solutions can be also expressed in terms of the q-exponential and q-logarithm functions. However, by a suitable choice of the nonlinear external force, we may have an exponential behavior, suggesting a connection with standard thermostatistics. This fact reveals that these solutions may present an anomalous relaxation process and then, reach an equilibrium state of the kind Boltzmann- Gibbs. Next, we investigate a nonmarkovian linear diffusion equation that presents a kernel leading to the anomalous diffusive process. Particularly, our first choice leads to both a the usual behavior and anomalous behavior obtained through a fractionalderivative equation. The results obtained, within this context, correspond to a change in the waiting-time distribution for jumps in the formalism of random walks. These modifications had direct influence in the solutions, that turned out to be expressed in terms of the Mittag-Leffler or H of Fox functions. In this way, the second moment associated to these distributions led to an anomalous spread of the distribution, in contrast to the usual situation where one finds a linear increase with time

Proportional controllers: Direct method for stability analysis and MATLAB implementation

In most cases, the cost of a control system increases based on its complexity. Proportional (P) controller is the simplest and most intuitive structure for the implementation of linear control systems. The difficulty to find the stability range of feedback systems with P controllers, using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion, increases with the order of the plant. For high order plants, the stability range cannot be easily obtained from the investigation of the coefficient signs in the first column of the Routh's array. A direct method for the determination of the stability range is presented. The method is easy to understand, to compute, and to offer the students a better comprehension on this subject. A program in MATLAB language, based on the proposed method, design examples, and class assessments, is provided in order to help the pedagogical issues. The method and the program enable the user to specify a decay rate and also extend to proportional-integral (PI), proportional-derivative (PD), and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers.