A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Assessment of land use and land cover changes during the last 50 years in oases and surrounding rangelands of Xinjiang, NW China

An analysis of historical Corona images, Landsat images, recent radar and Google Earth® images was conducted to determine land use and land cover changes of oases settlements and surrounding rangelands at the fringe of the Altay Mountains from 1964 to 2008. For the Landsat datasets supervised classification methods were used to test the suitability of the Maximum Likelihood Classifier with subsequent smoothing and the Sequential Maximum A Posteriori Classifier (SMAPC). The results show a trend typical for the steppe and desert regions of northern China. From 1964 to 2008 farmland strongly increased (+ 61%), while the area of grassland and forest in the floodplains decreased (- 43%). The urban areas increased threefold and 400 ha of former agricultural land were abandoned. Farmland apparently affected by soil salinity decreased in size from 1990 (1180 ha) to 2008 (630 ha). The vegetated areas of the surrounding rangelands decreased, mainly as a result of overgrazing and drought events.The SMAPC with subsequent post processing revealed the highest classification accuracy. However, the specific landscape characteristics of mountain oasis systems required labour intensive post processing. Further research is needed to test the use of ancillary information for an automated classification of the examined landscape features.

Perspectives of Urban Growth Management and Sustainable Development In West Bank, Hebron District as a case Study

The main objective of this PhD research study is to provide a perspective on the urban growth management and sustainable development in Palestine, and more specifically in Hebron district as a case study. Hebron is located 36 km south of Jerusalem, with an overall population size of around 600,000 people living in a total area around1246km2. Hebron is the biggest Palestinian district that has 16 municipalities and 154 localities. The research discusses and analyzes the urban planning system, economical and environmental policies and the solution required to manage and integrate the development elements to develop a sustainable development plan for Hebron. The research provides answers for fundamental questions such as what kind and definition of sustainable development are applicable to the Palestinian case?. What are the sustainability problems there and how the Israeli occupation and unstable political condition affect the sustainable development in Palestine? What are the urban growth management and sustainability policies and actions required from government, public and privets sector in Palestine? The fast urban growth in Palestine is facing many problems and challenges due to the increase in the population size and the resulting impact of this increase including, but not limited to, the demand of new houses, need for more infrastructure services, demands on new industrial, commercial, educational and health projects, which in turn reduces the area of agricultural lands and threatens the natural resources and environment. There are also other associated sustainability problems like the absence of effective plans or regulations that control urban expansion, the absence of sufficient sustainable development plans at the national levels for the district, new job requirements, Israeli restrictions and occupation for more than 60 years, existence of construction factories near residential areas, poor public awareness and poor governmental funds for service projects and development plans. The study consists of nine chapters. Chapter One includes an introduction, study objectives, problems and justifications, while Chapter Two has a theoretical background on sustainability topic and definitions of sustainability. The Palestinian urban planning laws and local government systems are discussed in Chapter Three and the methodology of research is detailed in Chapter Four. As for Chapter Five, it provides a general background on Hebron District including demographical and economical profiles, along with recommendations related to sustainable development for each profile Chapter Six addresses the urban environment, sustainability priorities and policies required. Chapter Seven discusses and analyzes infrastructure services including transportation, water and wastewater. As for Chapter Eight, it addresses the land use, housing and urban expansion beside the cultural heritage, natural heritage with relevant sustainable development polices and recommendations. Finally, Chapter Nine includes a conclusion and comprehensive recommendations integrating all of urban and sustainability event in one map. Hebron has a deep history including a rich cultural heritage aged by thousands of years, with 47% of Hebron district population under 14 years old. Being the biggest Palestinian district, Hebron has thousands of industrial and economical organizations beside a large agricultural sector at Palestine level. This gives Hebron a potential to play major roles in developing a national sustainability plan, as the current urban planning system in Palestine needs urgent reform and development to fulfill the sustainability requirement. The municipalities and ministers should find permanent financial aid for urban planning and development studies so as to face future challenges. The Palestinian government can benefit from available local human resources in development projects; hence Palestinian people have sufficient qualifications in most sectors. The Palestinian people also can invest in the privet sector in Palestine in case businessmen have been encouraged and clear investment laws and plans have been developed. The study provides recommendations associated to the sustainable development in Palestine in general and Hebron, as a case study, in specific. Recommendations include increasing the privet sector as well as the public involvement in urban growth management, and stopping unplanned urban expansion, subjecting granting building permits of new projects to the no-harm environmental impact assessment, increasing the coordination and cooperation between localities and central bodies, protection and renovation of old cites and green areas, increasing the quality and quantity of infrastructure services, establishing district urban planning department to coordinate and organize urban planning and sustainable development activities. Also, among recommendations come dividing Hebron into three planning and administrative areas (north, central and south), and dividing the sustainable development and implementation period (2010 to 2025) into three main phases. Finally, the study strongly recommends benefiting from the same urban development plans in similar districts at national and international levels, also to use new technologies and information systems in urban planning process.

Effects of red brick production on land use, household income, and greenhouse gas emissions in Khartoum, Sudan

In Khartoum (Sudan) a particular factor shaping urban land use is the rapid expansion of red brick making (BM) for the construction of houses which occurs on the most fertile agricultural Gerif soils along the Nile banks. The objectives of this study were to assess the profitability of BM, to explore the income distribution among farmers and kiln owners, to measure the dry matter (DM), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and organic carbon (C_org) in cow dung used for BM, and to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from burned biomass fuel (cow dung and fuel wood). About 49 kiln owners were interviewed in 2009 using a semi-structured questionnaire that allowed to record socio-economic and variable cost data for budget calculations, and determination of Gini coefficients. Samples of cow dung were collected directly from the kilns and analyzed for their nutrients concentrations. To estimate GHG emissions a modified approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was used. The land rental value from red brick kilns was estimated at 5-fold the rental value from agriculture and the land rent to total cost ratio was 29% for urban farms compared to 6% for BM. The Gini coefficients indicated that income distribution among kiln owners was more equal than among urban farmers. Using IPCC default values the 475, 381, and 36 t DM of loose dung, compacted dung, and fuel wood used for BM emit annually 688, 548, and 60 t of GHGs, respectively.

Determination of the silvo-melliferous regions of Benin: a nationwide categorisation of the land based on melliferous plants suitable for timber production

Perennial plants are the main pollen and nectar sources for bees in the tropical areas where most of the annual flora are burned in dry seasons. Therefore perennial plants constitute the most reliable bio materials for determining and evaluating the beekeeping regions of the Republic of Benin. A silvo-melliferous region (S-MR) is a geographical area characterised by a particular set of homogenous melliferous plants that can produce timber. Using both the prevailing climatic and the agro-ecological conditions six S-MRs could be identified, i.e. the South region, the Common Central region, the Central West region, the Central North region, the Middle North region and the Extreme North region. At the country level, the melliferous plants were dominated by Vitellaria paradoxa which is common to all regions. The most diversified family was the Caesalpiniaceae (12 species) followed by the Combretaceae (10 species) and Combretum being the richest genus. The effect of dominance is particularly high in the South region where Elaeis guineensis alone represented 72.6% of the tree density and 140% of the total plant importance. The total melliferous plant density varied from 99.3 plants ha^(−1) in the Common Central region to 178.0 plants ha^(−1) in the Central West region. On the basis of nectar and pollen source, the best region for beekeeping is the CentralWest region with 46.7% of nectar producing trees, 9.4% of pollen producing trees and 40.6% of plants that issue both, this in opposition to the South region which was characterised by an unbalanced distribution of melliferous trees.

An analysis of household farm investment decisions under varying land tenure arrangements in Ghana

Land tenure insecurity is widely perceived as a disincentive for long-term land improvement investment hence the objective of this paper is to evaluate how tenure (in)security associated with different land use arrangements in Ghana influenced households’ plot level investment decisions and choices. The paper uses data from the Farmer-Based Organisations (FBO) survey. The FBO survey collected information from 2,928 households across three ecological zones of Ghana using multistaged cluster sampling. Probit and Tobit models tested the effects of land tenancy and ownership arrangements on households’ investment behaviour while controlling other factors. It was found that marginal farm size was inversely related to tenure insecurity while tenure insecurity correlate positively with value of farm land and not farm size. Individual ownership and documentation of land significantly reduced the probability of households losing uncultivated lands. Individual land ownership increased both the probability of investing and level of investments made in land improvement and irrigation probably due to increasing importance households place on land ownership. Two possible explanations for this finding are: First, that land markets and land relations have changed significantly over the last two decades with increasing money transaction and fixed agreements propelled by population growth and increasing value of land. Secondly, inclusion of irrigation investment as a long term investment in land raises the value of household investment and the time period required to reap the returns on the investments. Households take land ownership and duration of tenancy into consideration if the resource implications of land investments are relatively huge and the time dimension for harvesting returns to investments is relatively long.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.

The Bogota – sabana region : the political economy behind the struggle to implement a sustainable urban development model

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Advances and limitations in the attention to the problems of housing and urban land in Mexico. An approach from the legal-institutional frame

In this work we analyze the reforms carried out by the Mexican state in the nineties of the 20th century, in the items concerning the policies of housing and urban land, based on an exhaustive review of the main actions, programs and changes in the legal and institutional frame that applies for each of these fields. The nineties represent a "breaking point" in the way the State considers the satisfaction of the right to the housing and attends the offer of urbanized land for a tidy and sustainable urban development. In this period of time, the approach of direct intervention in developing and financing housing and creation of land reserves has changed into another one, ruled by the logic of the market. The balance to the first decade of the 21st century is ambiguous, as neither the housing policy has solved the housing shortage for low-income population, nor the land policy has eliminated the illegal urban growth.

[Ressenya de la] Conferència internacional The Future of the Mediterranean Rural Environment: Prospects for Sustainable Land Use and Management. Menemen (Turquia), del 8 a l'11 de maig de 2000

Crònica de la conferència internacional 'The Future of the Mediterranean Rural Environment: Prospects for Sustainable Land Use and Management' sobre el desenvolupament sostenible de les àrees rurals mediterrànies. La conferència va tenir lloc entre el 8 i l’11 de maig de 2000 a Menemen (Turquia) i va reunir experts de diverses disciplines per establir els problemes principals que afecten la Mediterrània i per debatre mesures concretes de gestió, evitant o minimitzant els efectes negatius dels canvis econòmics, polítics, tecnològics i mediambientals recents

Calcrete profile development in quaternary alluvial sequences, southeast Spain: Implications for using calcretes as a basis for landform chronologies

A detailed study of the morphology and micro-morphology of Quaternary alluvial calcrete profiles from the Sorbas Basin shows that calcretes may be morphologically simple or complex. The 'simple' profiles reflect pedogenesis occurring after alluvial terrace formation and consist of a single pedogenic horizon near the land surface. The 'complex' profiles reflect the occurrence of multiple calcrete events during terrace sediment aggradation and further periods of pedogenesis after terrace formation. These 'complex' calcrete profiles are consequently described as composite profiles. The exact morphology of the composite profiles depends upon: (1) the number of calcrete-forming events occurring during terrace sediment aggradation; (2) the amount of sediment accretion that occurs between each period of calcrete formation; and (3) the degree of pedogenesis after terrace formation. Simple calcrete profiles are most useful in establishing landform chronologies because they represent a single phase of pedogenesis after terrace formation. Composite profiles are more problematic. Pedogenic calcretes that form within them may inherit carbonate from calcrete horizons occurring lower down in the terrace sediments. In addition erosion may lead to the exhumation of older calcretes within the terrace sediment. Calcrete 'inheritance' may make pedogenic horizons appear more mature than they actually are and produce horizons containing carbonate embracing a range of ages. Calcrete exhumation exposes calcrete horizons whose morphology and radiometric ages are wholly unrelated to terrace surface age. Composite profiles are, therefore, only suitable for chronological studies if the pedogenic horizon capping the terrace sequence can be clearly distinguished from earlier calcrete-forming events. Thus, a detailed morphological/micro-morphological study is required before any chronological study is undertaken. This is the only way to establish whether particular calcrete profiles are suitable for dating purposes. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Managing land-use conflict around urban centres: Australian poultry farmer attitudes towards relocation

In analysing the release of agricultural land to urban development, the urban fringe literature has not focused on whether farmers are able to relocate from the urban fringe to remoter rural areas. Through interviews with representatives from the poultry industry in two Australian states, this paper identifies that poultry farm relocation strategies are constrained by off-farm economic relations, the land-use planning system and financial considerations. Closely aligned to these constraints on relocation is the on-going process of poultry farm intensification, which is seen as presenting rising problems for land-use management around expanding metropolitan centres in Australia. Of particular concern is the potential for amenity complaints and associated land-use conflicts, which have not been comprehensively investigated. Recognising that existing environmental and land-use planning controls are ineffective in producing amicable solutions when conflict involving poultry farming is at its most intense, the paper calls for improvements to the regulatory system, including greater consideration for how the process of relocation can be encouraged. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phosphorus dynamics and export in streams draining micro-catchments: Development of empirical models

Annual total phosphorus (TP) export data from 108 European micro-catchments were analyzed against descriptive catchment data on climate (runoff), soil types, catchment size, and land use. The best possible empirical model developed included runoff, proportion of agricultural land and catchment size as explanatory variables but with a low explanation of the variance in the dataset (R-2 = 0.37). Improved country specific empirical models could be developed in some cases. The best example was from Norway where an analysis of TP-export data from 12 predominantly agricultural micro-catchments revealed a relationship explaining 96% of the variance in TP-export. The explanatory variables were in this case soil-P status (P-AL), proportion of organic soil, and the export of suspended sediment. Another example is from Denmark where an empirical model was established for the basic annual average TP-export from 24 catchments with percentage sandy soils, percentage organic soils, runoff, and application of phosphorus in fertilizer and animal manure as explanatory variables (R-2 = 0.97).