Large scale optimization of a sour water stripping plant using surrogate models

In this work, we propose a new methodology for the large scale optimization and process integration of complex chemical processes that have been simulated using modular chemical process simulators. Units with significant numerical noise or large CPU times are substituted by surrogate models based on Kriging interpolation. Using a degree of freedom analysis, some of those units can be aggregated into a single unit to reduce the complexity of the resulting model. As a result, we solve a hybrid simulation-optimization model formed by units in the original flowsheet, Kriging models, and explicit equations. We present a case study of the optimization of a sour water stripping plant in which we simultaneously consider economics, heat integration and environmental impact using the ReCiPe indicator, which incorporates the recent advances made in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The optimization strategy guarantees the convergence to a local optimum inside the tolerance of the numerical noise.

ESTUDIO DE LOS MODOS DE VIDA E HISTORIA BIOLÓGICA DE LAS POBLACIONES HUMANAS DE LA REGIÓN CENTRAL DE ARGENTINA DESDE EL REGISTRO BIOARQUEOLÓGICO

Se pretende aportar al estudio de la estructura, historia biológica y estilos de vida de las poblaciones que habitaron la región central de Argentina durante el Holoceno, desde una perspectiva que combina los aportes teóricos y metodológicos de la Genética del paisaje y la Bioarqueología. Interesa a) identificar barreras de diferenciación morfológica entre poblaciones, b) poner a prueba modelos poblacionales para explicar la variación observada e identificar las variables que contribuyan a dicha diferenciación, c) evaluar la congruencia de los resultados obtenidos, d) reconstruir los patrones de movilidad residencial de las poblaciones, e) estudiar sus patrones dietarios considerando diferencias temporales y espaciales, f) identificar indicadores de diversos tipos de estrés (nutricional, funcional), así como traumas, g) estudiar las historias tafonómicas del registro bioarqueológico regional, y h) proponer un modelo para explicar el poblamiento y la evolución local de las poblaciones que habitaron esta región, a partir de la información arqueológica y bioantropológica. Para el análisis de los patrones espaciales de variación biológica se trabajará a partir del registro de rasgos epigenéticos craneales, medidas lineales y datos obtenidos a partir de morfometría geométrica sobre fotografías en 2D sobre muestras arqueológicas procedentes de esta región y de otras regiones geográficas de la Argentina. Para el análisis de la estructura de la población se trabajará a partir del cálculo de la matriz R para datos morfológicos y sus estimaciones derivadas (distancia D², Fst, coordenadas principales) y la aplicación del modelo de Harpending y Ward. Desde la genética del paisaje, se realizarán análisis de autocorrelación espacial, barreras genéticas y análisis geoestadísticos (kriging). Para el estudio de los modos de vida a partir del registro bioarqueológico se relevarán patologías dento-alveolares y alteraciones vinculadas con la salud bucal tales como desgaste dental –a nivel micro y macroscópico- caries, abscesos, pérdidas dentales antemortem, cálculos, hipoplasias, marcadores esqueletales de salud y lesiones traumáticas. Se analizarán isótopos estables (δ13C, δ15N, 86Sr y 87Sr) en restos óseos humanos de diversos sitios arqueológicos con el objetivo de reconstruir patrones dietarios y analizar la movilidad residencial y migración de las poblaciones. Paralelamente, se establecerán procedimientos de control tafonómico de los restos óseos, y se harán análisis específicos para estudiar las historias tafonómicas y evaluar el grado de integridad de los contextos de depositación y de las colecciones en general. Estimamos que el análisis de los patrones espaciales y temporales de variabilidad morfológica craneofacial, así como el estudio de las dietas a partir de información isotópica y bioarqueológica, de las migraciones y la movilidad residencial de las poblaciones a partir de isótopos de estroncio, la reconstrucción de comportamientos y actividades cotidianas a partir de marcadores de estrés músculo-esqueletal, en un marco cronológico y espacial constituye un aporte novedoso y eficaz que permitirá incrementar de manera substancial la información sobre la evolución de las poblaciones originarias del centro del territorio argentino

On ANOVA Decompositions of Kernels and Gaussian Random Field Paths

The FANOVA (or “Sobol’-Hoeffding”) decomposition of multivariate functions has been used for high-dimensional model representation and global sensitivity analysis. When the objective function f has no simple analytic form and is costly to evaluate, computing FANOVA terms may be unaffordable due to numerical integration costs. Several approximate approaches relying on Gaussian random field (GRF) models have been proposed to alleviate these costs, where f is substituted by a (kriging) predictor or by conditional simulations. Here we focus on FANOVA decompositions of GRF sample paths, and we notably introduce an associated kernel decomposition into 4 d 4d terms called KANOVA. An interpretation in terms of tensor product projections is obtained, and it is shown that projected kernels control both the sparsity of GRF sample paths and the dependence structure between FANOVA effects. Applications on simulated data show the relevance of the approach for designing new classes of covariance kernels dedicated to high-dimensional kriging.

Traffic-Related PM2.5 Air Pollution and Schools in Proximity to Major Roadways in Shanghai, China

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Successive nonparametric estimation of conditional distributions

Spatial characterization of non-Gaussian attributes in earth sciences and engineering commonly requires the estimation of their conditional distribution. The indicator and probability kriging approaches of current nonparametric geostatistics provide approximations for estimating conditional distributions. They do not, however, provide results similar to those in the cumbersome implementation of simultaneous cokriging of indicators. This paper presents a new formulation termed successive cokriging of indicators that avoids the classic simultaneous solution and related computational problems, while obtaining equivalent results to the impractical simultaneous solution of cokriging of indicators. A successive minimization of the estimation variance of probability estimates is performed, as additional data are successively included into the estimation process. In addition, the approach leads to an efficient nonparametric simulation algorithm for non-Gaussian random functions based on residual probabilities.

Supporting interoperable interpolation: the INTAMAP approach

In many Environmental Information Systems the actual observations arise from a discrete monitoring network which might be rather heterogeneous in both location and types of measurements made. In this paper we describe the architecture and infrastructure for a system, developed as part of the EU FP6 funded INTAMAP project, to provide a service oriented solution that allows the construction of an interoperable, automatic, interpolation system. This system will be based on the Open Geospatial Consortium’s Web Feature Service (WFS) standard. The essence of our approach is to extend the GML3.1 observation feature to include information about the sensor using SensorML, and to further extend this to incorporate observation error characteristics. Our extended WFS will accept observations, and will store them in a database. The observations will be passed to our R-based interpolation server, which will use a range of methods, including a novel sparse, sequential kriging method (only briefly described here) to produce an internal representation of the interpolated field resulting from the observations currently uploaded to the system. The extended WFS will then accept queries, such as ‘What is the probability distribution of the desired variable at a given point’, ‘What is the mean value over a given region’, or ‘What is the probability of exceeding a certain threshold at a given location’. To support information-rich transfer of complex and uncertain predictions we are developing schema to represent probabilistic results in a GML3.1 (object-property) style. The system will also offer more easily accessible Web Map Service and Web Coverage Service interfaces to allow users to access the system at the level of complexity they require for their specific application. Such a system will offer a very valuable contribution to the next generation of Environmental Information Systems in the context of real time mapping for monitoring and security, particularly for systems that employ a service oriented architecture.

Exchanging uncertainty: interoperable geostatistics?

Traditionally, geostatistical algorithms are contained within specialist GIS and spatial statistics software. Such packages are often expensive, with relatively complex user interfaces and steep learning curves, and cannot be easily integrated into more complex process chains. In contrast, Service Oriented Architectures (SOAs) promote interoperability and loose coupling within distributed systems, typically using XML (eXtensible Markup Language) and Web services. Web services provide a mechanism for a user to discover and consume a particular process, often as part of a larger process chain, with minimal knowledge of how it works. Wrapping current geostatistical algorithms with a Web service layer would thus increase their accessibility, but raises several complex issues. This paper discusses a solution to providing interoperable, automatic geostatistical processing through the use of Web services, developed in the INTAMAP project (INTeroperability and Automated MAPping). The project builds upon Open Geospatial Consortium standards for describing observations, typically used within sensor webs, and employs Geography Markup Language (GML) to describe the spatial aspect of the problem domain. Thus the interpolation service is extremely flexible, being able to support a range of observation types, and can cope with issues such as change of support and differing error characteristics of sensors (by utilising descriptions of the observation process provided by SensorML). XML is accepted as the de facto standard for describing Web services, due to its expressive capabilities which allow automatic discovery and consumption by ‘naive’ users. Any XML schema employed must therefore be capable of describing every aspect of a service and its processes. However, no schema currently exists that can define the complex uncertainties and modelling choices that are often present within geostatistical analysis. We show a solution to this problem, developing a family of XML schemata to enable the description of a full range of uncertainty types. These types will range from simple statistics, such as the kriging mean and variances, through to a range of probability distributions and non-parametric models, such as realisations from a conditional simulation. By employing these schemata within a Web Processing Service (WPS) we show a prototype moving towards a truly interoperable geostatistical software architecture.

Robust automatic mapping algorithms in a network monitoring scenario

Automatically generating maps of a measured variable of interest can be problematic. In this work we focus on the monitoring network context where observations are collected and reported by a network of sensors, and are then transformed into interpolated maps for use in decision making. Using traditional geostatistical methods, estimating the covariance structure of data collected in an emergency situation can be difficult. Variogram determination, whether by method-of-moment estimators or by maximum likelihood, is very sensitive to extreme values. Even when a monitoring network is in a routine mode of operation, sensors can sporadically malfunction and report extreme values. If this extreme data destabilises the model, causing the covariance structure of the observed data to be incorrectly estimated, the generated maps will be of little value, and the uncertainty estimates in particular will be misleading. Marchant and Lark [2007] propose a REML estimator for the covariance, which is shown to work on small data sets with a manual selection of the damping parameter in the robust likelihood. We show how this can be extended to allow treatment of large data sets together with an automated approach to all parameter estimation. The projected process kriging framework of Ingram et al. [2007] is extended to allow the use of robust likelihood functions, including the two component Gaussian and the Huber function. We show how our algorithm is further refined to reduce the computational complexity while at the same time minimising any loss of information. To show the benefits of this method, we use data collected from radiation monitoring networks across Europe. We compare our results to those obtained from traditional kriging methodologies and include comparisons with Box-Cox transformations of the data. We discuss the issue of whether to treat or ignore extreme values, making the distinction between the robust methods which ignore outliers and transformation methods which treat them as part of the (transformed) process. Using a case study, based on an extreme radiological events over a large area, we show how radiation data collected from monitoring networks can be analysed automatically and then used to generate reliable maps to inform decision making. We show the limitations of the methods and discuss potential extensions to remedy these.

Fast algorithms for automatic mapping with space-limited covariance functions

In this paper we discuss a fast Bayesian extension to kriging algorithms which has been used successfully for fast, automatic mapping in emergency conditions in the Spatial Interpolation Comparison 2004 (SIC2004) exercise. The application of kriging to automatic mapping raises several issues such as robustness, scalability, speed and parameter estimation. Various ad-hoc solutions have been proposed and used extensively but they lack a sound theoretical basis. In this paper we show how observations can be projected onto a representative subset of the data, without losing significant information. This allows the complexity of the algorithm to grow as O(n m 2), where n is the total number of observations and m is the size of the subset of the observations retained for prediction. The main contribution of this paper is to further extend this projective method through the application of space-limited covariance functions, which can be used as an alternative to the commonly used covariance models. In many real world applications the correlation between observations essentially vanishes beyond a certain separation distance. Thus it makes sense to use a covariance model that encompasses this belief since this leads to sparse covariance matrices for which optimised sparse matrix techniques can be used. In the presence of extreme values we show that space-limited covariance functions offer an additional benefit, they maintain the smoothness locally but at the same time lead to a more robust, and compact, global model. We show the performance of this technique coupled with the sparse extension to the kriging algorithm on synthetic data and outline a number of computational benefits such an approach brings. To test the relevance to automatic mapping we apply the method to the data used in a recent comparison of interpolation techniques (SIC2004) to map the levels of background ambient gamma radiation. © Springer-Verlag 2007.

Sequential, Bayesian geostatistics:a principled method for large data sets

The principled statistical application of Gaussian random field models used in geostatistics has historically been limited to data sets of a small size. This limitation is imposed by the requirement to store and invert the covariance matrix of all the samples to obtain a predictive distribution at unsampled locations, or to use likelihood-based covariance estimation. Various ad hoc approaches to solve this problem have been adopted, such as selecting a neighborhood region and/or a small number of observations to use in the kriging process, but these have no sound theoretical basis and it is unclear what information is being lost. In this article, we present a Bayesian method for estimating the posterior mean and covariance structures of a Gaussian random field using a sequential estimation algorithm. By imposing sparsity in a well-defined framework, the algorithm retains a subset of “basis vectors” that best represent the “true” posterior Gaussian random field model in the relative entropy sense. This allows a principled treatment of Gaussian random field models on very large data sets. The method is particularly appropriate when the Gaussian random field model is regarded as a latent variable model, which may be nonlinearly related to the observations. We show the application of the sequential, sparse Bayesian estimation in Gaussian random field models and discuss its merits and drawbacks.

Optimal design for correlated processes with input-dependent noise

Optimal design for parameter estimation in Gaussian process regression models with input-dependent noise is examined. The motivation stems from the area of computer experiments, where computationally demanding simulators are approximated using Gaussian process emulators to act as statistical surrogates. In the case of stochastic simulators, which produce a random output for a given set of model inputs, repeated evaluations are useful, supporting the use of replicate observations in the experimental design. The findings are also applicable to the wider context of experimental design for Gaussian process regression and kriging. Designs are proposed with the aim of minimising the variance of the Gaussian process parameter estimates. A heteroscedastic Gaussian process model is presented which allows for an experimental design technique based on an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic models. It is empirically shown that the error of the approximation of the parameter variance by the inverse of the Fisher information is reduced as the number of replicated points is increased. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic data and a systems biology stochastic simulator, optimal designs with replicate observations are shown to outperform space-filling designs both with and without replicate observations. Guidance is provided on best practice for optimal experimental design for stochastic response models. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surrogate-based analysis and optimization for the design of heat sinks with jet impingement

Heat sinks are widely used for cooling electronic devices and systems. Their thermal performance is usually determined by the material, shape, and size of the heat sink. With the assistance of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and surrogate-based optimization, heat sinks can be designed and optimized to achieve a high level of performance. In this paper, the design and optimization of a plate-fin-type heat sink cooled by impingement jet is presented. The flow and thermal fields are simulated using the CFD simulation; the thermal resistance of the heat sink is then estimated. A Kriging surrogate model is developed to approximate the objective function (thermal resistance) as a function of design variables. Surrogate-based optimization is implemented by adaptively adding infill points based on an integrated strategy of the minimum value, the maximum mean square error approach, and the expected improvement approaches. The results show the influence of design variables on the thermal resistance and give the optimal heat sink with lowest thermal resistance for given jet impingement conditions.

System-on-a-Chip (SOC) based environmental monitoring platform for the detection of hazardous materials

The purpose of this research is design considerations for environmental monitoring platforms for the detection of hazardous materials using System-on-a-Chip (SoC) design. Design considerations focus on improving key areas such as: (1) sampling methodology; (2) context awareness; and (3) sensor placement. These design considerations for environmental monitoring platforms using wireless sensor networks (WSN) is applied to the detection of methylmercury (MeHg) and environmental parameters affecting its formation (methylation) and deformation (demethylation). ^ The sampling methodology investigates a proof-of-concept for the monitoring of MeHg using three primary components: (1) chemical derivatization; (2) preconcentration using the purge-and-trap (P&T) method; and (3) sensing using Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCM) sensors. This study focuses on the measurement of inorganic mercury (Hg) (e.g., Hg2+) and applies lessons learned to organic Hg (e.g., MeHg) detection. ^ Context awareness of a WSN and sampling strategies is enhanced by using spatial analysis techniques, namely geostatistical analysis (i.e., classical variography and ordinary point kriging), to help predict the phenomena of interest in unmonitored locations (i.e., locations without sensors). This aids in making more informed decisions on control of the WSN (e.g., communications strategy, power management, resource allocation, sampling rate and strategy, etc.). This methodology improves the precision of controllability by adding potentially significant information of unmonitored locations.^ There are two types of sensors that are investigated in this study for near-optimal placement in a WSN: (1) environmental (e.g., humidity, moisture, temperature, etc.) and (2) visual (e.g., camera) sensors. The near-optimal placement of environmental sensors is found utilizing a strategy which minimizes the variance of spatial analysis based on randomly chosen points representing the sensor locations. Spatial analysis is employed using geostatistical analysis and optimization occurs with Monte Carlo analysis. Visual sensor placement is accomplished for omnidirectional cameras operating in a WSN using an optimal placement metric (OPM) which is calculated for each grid point based on line-of-site (LOS) in a defined number of directions where known obstacles are taken into consideration. Optimal areas of camera placement are determined based on areas generating the largest OPMs. Statistical analysis is examined by using Monte Carlo analysis with varying number of obstacles and cameras in a defined space. ^

Development of methods for spatial modeling of sediments quality in Lake Okeechobee, Florida

The major objectives of this dissertation were to develop optimal spatial techniques to model the spatial-temporal changes of the lake sediments and their nutrients from 1988 to 2006, and evaluate the impacts of the hurricanes occurred during 1998–2006. Mud zone reduced about 10.5% from 1988 to 1998, and increased about 6.2% from 1998 to 2006. Mud areas, volumes and weight were calculated using validated Kriging models. From 1988 to 1998, mud thicknesses increased up to 26 cm in the central lake area. The mud area and volume decreased about 13.78% and 10.26%, respectively. From 1998 to 2006, mud depths declined by up to 41 cm in the central lake area, mud volume reduced about 27%. Mud weight increased up to 29.32% from 1988 to 1998, but reduced over 20% from 1998 to 2006. The reduction of mud sediments is likely due to re-suspension and redistribution by waves and currents produced by large storm events, particularly Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005. Regression, kriging, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and regression-kriging models have been calibrated and validated for the spatial analysis of the sediments TP and TN of the lake. GWR models provide the most accurate predictions for TP and TN based on model performance and error analysis. TP values declined from an average of 651 to 593 mg/kg from 1998 to 2006, especially in the lake’s western and southern regions. From 1988 to 1998, TP declined in the northern and southern areas, and increased in the central-western part of the lake. The TP weights increased about 37.99%–43.68% from 1988 to 1998 and decreased about 29.72%–34.42% from 1998 to 2006. From 1988 to 1998, TN decreased in most areas, especially in the northern and southern lake regions; western littoral zone had the biggest increase, up to 40,000 mg/kg. From 1998 to 2006, TN declined from an average of 9,363 to 8,926 mg/kg, especially in the central and southern regions. The biggest increases occurred in the northern lake and southern edge areas. TN weights increased about 15%–16.2% from 1988 to 1998, and decreased about 7%–11% from 1998 to 2006.

Dinâmica das configurações de formação e inibição das chuvas no Rio Grande do Norte: caracterização hidroclimática do estado

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of the main meteorological mechanisms trainers and inhibitors of precipitation, and the interactions between different scales of operation, the spatial and temporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in the Rio Grande do Norte. Além disso, considerando as circunstâncias locais e regionais, criando assim uma base científica para apoiar ações futuras na gestão da demanda de água no Estado. Database from monthly precipitation of 45 years, ranging between 1963 and 2007, data provided by EMPARN. The methodology used to achieve the results was initially composed of descriptive statistical analysis of historical data to prove the stability of the series, were applied after, geostatistics tool for plotting maps of the variables, within the geostatistical we opted for by Kriging interpolation method because it was the method that showed the best results and minor errors. Among the results, we highlight the annual cycle of rainfall the State which is influenced by meteorological mechanisms of different spatial and temporal scales, where the main mechanisms cycle modulators are the Conference Intertropical Zone (ITCZ) acting since midFebruary to mid May throughout the state, waves Leste (OL), Lines of instability (LI), breeze systems and orographic rainfall acting mainly in the Coastal strip between February and July. Along with vortice of high levels (VCANs), Complex Mesoscale Convective (CCMs) and orographic rain in any region of the state mainly in spring and summer. In terms of larger scale phenomena stood out El Niño and La Niña, ENSO in the tropical Pacific basin. In La Niña episodes usually occur normal or rainy years, as upon the occurrence of prolonged periods of drought are influenced by EL NIÑO. In the Atlantic Ocean the standard Dipole also affects the intensity of the rainfall cycle in State. The cycle of rains in Rio Grande do Norte is divided into two periods, one comprising the regions West, Central and the Western Portion of the Wasteland Potiguar mesoregions of west Chapada Borborema, causing rains from midFebruary to mid-May and a second period of cycle, between February-July, where rains occur in mesoregions East and of the Wasteland, located upwind of the Chapada Borborema, both interspersed with dry periods without occurrence of significant rainfall and transition periods of rainy - dry and dry-rainy where isolated rainfall occur. Approximately 82% of the rainfall stations of the state which corresponds to 83.4% of the total area of Rio Grande do Norte, do not record annual volumes above 900 mm. Because the water supply of the State be maintained by small reservoirs already are in an advanced state of eutrophication, when the rains occur, act to wash and replace the water in the reservoirs, improving the quality of these, reducing the eutrophication process. When rain they do not significantly occur or after long periods of shortages, the process of eutrophication and deterioration of water in dams increased significantly. Through knowledge of the behavior of the annual cycle of rainfall can have an intimate knowledge of how it may be the tendency of rainy or prone to shortages following period, mainly observing the trends of larger scale phenomena