Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts?

A regime shift is a large, sudden, and long-lasting change in the dynamics of an ecosystem, affecting multiple trophic levels. There are a growing number of papers that report regime shifts in marine ecosystems. However, the evidence for regime shifts is equivocal, because the methods used to detect them are not yet well developed. We have collated over 300 biological time series from seven marine regions around the UK, covering the ecosystem from phytoplankton to marine mammals. Each time series consists of annual measures of abundance for a single group of organisms over several decades. We summarised the data for each region using the first principal component, weighting either each time series or each biological component (e.g. plankton, fish, benthos) equally. We then searched for regime shifts using Rodionov’s regime shift detection (RSD) method, which found regime shifts in the first principal component for all seven marine regions. However, there are consistent temporal trends in the data for six of the seven regions. Such trends violate the assumptions of RSD. Thus, the regime shifts detected by RSD in six of the seven regions are likely to be artefacts caused by temporal trends. We are therefore developing more appropriate time series models for both single populations and whole communities that will explicitly model temporal trends and should increase our ability to detect true regime shift events.

Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components. The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.

Bioaccumulation Trends of Ten Metals in a Pelagic Food Web of Lake Champlain

Many metals have serious toxic effects when ingested by aquatic organisms, and the process of bioaccumulation intensifies this problem. A better understanding of bioaccumulation trends of anthropogenically introduced metals in freshwater food webs is necessary for the development of effective management strategies to protect aquatic organisms, as well as organisms (including humans) that consume top-predator fish in these food webs. Various fish species representing different trophic levels of a pelagic food chain were sampled from Lake Champlain (VT/NY). Atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) was used to determine levels of chromium, copper, cobalt, cadmium, lead, zinc, nickel, rubidium, cesium and potassium in the fish samples. Metal concentrations for chromium, cobalt, nickel, cesium, cadmium (<5.0 ppm) and lead (<10.0 ppm) were found to be all below detection limits. Carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios were analyzed to determine the trophic relationship of each fish species. Stable isotope and AAS metal data were used in tandem to produce linear regressions for each metal against trophic level to assess biomagnification. Both potassium and zinc showed no biomagnification because they are homeostatically regulated essential trace metals. Copper was under the detection limits for all fish species with the exception of the sea lamprey; but showed a significant biodiminution among the invertebrates and lamprey. Rubidium, a rarely studied metal, was shown to increase with trophic level in a marginally significant linear relationship suggesting biomagnification is possible where more trophic levels are sampled.

Demographic and temporal trends in out of hospital sudden cardiac death in belfast

Objective: To determine the epidemiology of out of hospital sudden cardiac death (OHSCD) in Belfast from 1 August 2003 to 31 July 2004.

Design: Prospective examination of out of hospital cardiac arrests by using the Utstein style and necropsy reports. World Health Organization criteria were applied to determine the number of sudden cardiac deaths.

Results: Of 300 OHSCDs, 197 (66%) in men, mean age (SD) 68 (14) years, 234 (78%) occurred at home. The emergency medical services (EMS) attended 279 (93%). Rhythm on EMS arrival was ventricular fibrillation (VF) in 75 (27%). The call to response interval (CRI) was mean (SD) 8 (3) minutes. Among patients attended by the EMS, 9.7% were resuscitated and 7.2% survived to leave hospital alive. The CRI for survivors was mean (SD) 5 (2) minutes and for non-survivors, 8 (3) minutes (p < 0.001). Ninety one (30%) OHSCDs were witnessed; of these 91 patients 48 (53%) had VF on EMS arrival. The survival rate for witnessed VF arrests was 20 of 48 (41.7%): all 20 survivors had VF as the presenting rhythm and CRI ? 7 minutes. The European age standardised incidence for OHSCD was 122/100 000 (95% confidence interval 111 to 133) for men and 41/100 000 (95% confidence interval 36 to 46) for women.

Conclusion: Despite a 37% reduction in heart attack mortality in Ireland over the past 20 years, the incidence of OHSCD in Belfast has not fallen. In this study, 78% of OHSCDs occurred at home.

Secular Trends in Substance Use: The Conflict and Young People in Northern Ireland

The resolution of political conflict has led some to suggest that Northern Ireland will now face a range of social problems that have been ignored or suppressed by the Troubles. One such area is adolescent drug use. In this article, a review of a range of data sources shows that drug use, with few exceptions, has increased since the emergence of the ongoing peace process. Social and political changes and enhanced paramilitary involvement in the drugs trade appear to have somehow created an environment where drug use has flourished. In reviewing current drug policy and practice, the article highlights the lack of prevention, treatment, and harm reduction services established in Northern Ireland as a cause for concern.