Asymptotic robust inferences in the analysis of mean and covariance structures

Structural equation models are widely used in economic, socialand behavioral studies to analyze linear interrelationships amongvariables, some of which may be unobservable or subject to measurementerror. Alternative estimation methods that exploit different distributionalassumptions are now available. The present paper deals with issues ofasymptotic statistical inferences, such as the evaluation of standarderrors of estimates and chi--square goodness--of--fit statistics,in the general context of mean and covariance structures. The emphasisis on drawing correct statistical inferences regardless of thedistribution of the data and the method of estimation employed. A(distribution--free) consistent estimate of $\Gamma$, the matrix ofasymptotic variances of the vector of sample second--order moments,will be used to compute robust standard errors and a robust chi--squaregoodness--of--fit squares. Simple modifications of the usual estimateof $\Gamma$ will also permit correct inferences in the case of multi--stage complex samples. We will also discuss the conditions under which,regardless of the distribution of the data, one can rely on the usual(non--robust) inferential statistics. Finally, a multivariate regressionmodel with errors--in--variables will be used to illustrate, by meansof simulated data, various theoretical aspects of the paper.

Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean-variance frontiers: A unifying approach

We propose new spanning tests that assess if the initial and additional assets share theeconomically meaningful cost and mean representing portfolios. We prove their asymptoticequivalence to existing tests under local alternatives. We also show that unlike two-step oriterated procedures, single-step methods such as continuously updated GMM yield numericallyidentical overidentifyng restrictions tests, so there is arguably a single spanning test.To prove these results, we extend optimal GMM inference to deal with singularities in thelong run second moment matrix of the influence functions. Finally, we test for spanningusing size and book-to-market sorted US stock portfolios.

A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents a two--factor model of the term structure ofinterest rates. We assume that default free discount bond prices aredetermined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long--term interestrate and the spread (difference between the long--term rate and theshort--term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Assuming that both factorsfollow a joint Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, a general bond pricing equationis derived. We obtain a closed--form expression for bond prices andexamine its implications for the term structure of interest rates. We alsoderive a closed--form solution for interest rate derivatives prices. Thisexpression is applied to price European options on discount bonds andmore complex types of options. Finally, empirical evidence of the model'sperformance is presented.

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring: a mean to stratify cardiovascular risk.

OBJECTIVE: Current hypertension guidelines stress the importance to assess total cardiovascular risk but do not describe precisely how to use ambulatory blood pressures in the cardiovascular risk stratification. METHOD: We calculated here global cardiovascular risk according to 2003 European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology guidelines in 127 patients in whom daytime ambulatory blood pressures were recorded and carotid/femoral ultrasonography performed. RESULTS: The presence of ambulatory blood pressures >or =135/85 mmHg shifted cardiovascular risk to higher categories, as did the presence of hypercholesterolemia and, even more so, the presence of atherosclerotic plaques. CONCLUSION: Further studies are, however, needed to define the position of ambulatory blood pressures in the assessment of cardiovascular risk.

Duality in mean-variance frontiers with conditioning information

Portfolio and stochastic discount factor (SDF) frontiers are usually regarded as dual objects, and researchers sometimes use one to answer questions about the other. However, the introduction of conditioning information and active portfolio strategies alters this relationship. For instance, the unconditional portfolio frontier in Hansen and Richard (1987) is not dual to the unconditional SDF frontier in Gallant, Hansen and Tauchen (1990). We characterise the dual objects to those frontiers, and relate them to the frontiers generated with managed portfolios, which are commonly used in empirical work. We also study the implications of a safe asset and other special cases.

Parallelizing remote sensing image geometric correction

Remote sensing spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions of images, acquired over a reasonably sized image extent, result in imagery that can be processed to represent land cover over large areas with an amount of spatial detail that is very attractive for monitoring, management, and scienti c activities. With Moore's Law alive and well, more and more parallelism is introduced into all computing platforms, at all levels of integration and programming to achieve higher performance and energy e ciency. Being the geometric calibration process one of the most time consuming processes when using remote sensing images, the aim of this work is to accelerate this process by taking advantage of new computing architectures and technologies, specially focusing in exploiting computation over shared memory multi-threading hardware. A parallel implementation of the most time consuming process in the remote sensing geometric correction has been implemented using OpenMP directives. This work compares the performance of the original serial binary versus the parallelized implementation, using several multi-threaded modern CPU architectures, discussing about the approach to nd the optimum hardware for a cost-e ective execution.

Measurement of Bioactivity of Immunomodulatory Treatment of Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis. With Emphasis on MxA Protein

Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating disease of the central nervous system, which mainly affects young adults. In Finland, approximately 2500 out of 6000 MS patients have relapsing MS and are treated with disease modifying drugs (DMD): interferon- β (INF-β-1a or INF-β-1b) and glatiramer acetate (GA). Depending on the used IFN-β preparation, 2 % to 40 % of patients develop neutralizing antibodies (NAbs), which abolish the biological effects of IFN-β, leading to reduced clinical and MRI detected efficacy. According to the Finnish Current Care Guidelines and European Federation of Neurological Societis (EFNS) guidelines, it is suggested tomeasure the presence of NAbs during the first 24 months of IFN-β therapy. Aims The aim of this thesis was to measure the bioactivity of IFN-β therapy by focusing on the induction of MxA protein (myxovirus resistance protein A) and its correlation to neutralizing antibodies (NAb). A new MxA EIA assay was set up to offer an easier and rapid method for MxA protein detection in clinical practice. In addition, the tolerability and safety of GA were evaluated in patients who haddiscontinued IFN-β therapy due to side effects and lack of efficacy. Results NAbs developed towards the end of 12 months of treatment, and binding antibodies were detectable before or parallel with them. The titer of NAb correlated negatively with the amount of MxA protein and the mean values of preinjection MxA levels never returned to true baseline in NAb negative patients, but tended to drop in the NAb positive group. The test results between MxA EIA and flow cytometric analysis showed significant correlation. GA reduced the relapse rate and was a safe and well-tolerated therapy in IFN-β-intolerant MS patients. Conclusions NAbs inhibit the induction of MxA protein, which can be used as a surrogate marker of the bioactivity of IFN-β therapy. Compared to flow cytometricanalysis and NAb assay, MxA-EIA seemed to be a sensitive and more practical method in clinical use to measure the actual bioactivity of IFN-β treatment, which is of value also from a cost-effective perspective.

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.

Hypertension is an independent predictor of mean platelet volume in patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

Introduction: Mean platelet volume (MPV) was shown to be significantly increased in patients with acute ischaemic stroke, especially in non-lacunar strokes. Moreover, some studies concluded that increased MPV is related to poor functional outcome after ischaemic stroke, although this association is still controversial. However, the determinants of MPV in patients with acute ischaemic stroke have never been investigated. Subjects and methods: We recorded the main demographic, clinical and laboratory data of consecutive patients with acute (admitted within 24 h after stroke onset) ischaemic stroke admitted in our Neurology Service between January 2003 and December 2008. MPV was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter (Sysmex Corporation, Kobe, Japan) from ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid blood samples stored at room temperature until measurement. The association of these parameters with MPV was investigated in univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: A total of 636 patients was included in our study. The median MPV was 10.4 ± 0.82 fL. In univariate analysis, glucose (β= 0.03, P= 0.05), serum creatinine (β= 0.002, P= 0.02), haemoglobin (β= 0.009, P < 0.001), platelet count (β=-0.002, P < 0.001) and history of arterial hypertension (β= 0.21, P= 0.005) were found to be significantly associated with MPV. In multivariate robust regression analysis, only hypertension and platelet count remained as independent determinants of MPV. Conclusions: In patients with acute ischaemic stroke, platelet count and history of hypertension are the only determinants of MPV.

Geometric control of the cell cycle.

How do cells sense their own size and shape? And how does this information regulate progression of the cell cycle? Our group, in parallel to that of Paul Nurse, have recently demonstrated that fission yeast cells use a novel geometry-sensing mechanism to couple cell length perception with entry into mitosis. These rod-shaped cells measure their own length by using a medially-placed sensor, Cdr2, that reads a protein gradient emanating from cell tips, Pom1, to control entry into mitosis. Budding yeast cells use a similar molecular sensor to delay entry into mitosis in response to defects in bud morphogenesis. Metazoan cells also modulate cell proliferation in response to their own shape by sensing tension. Here I discuss the recent results obtained for the fission yeast system and compare them to the strategies used by these other organisms to perceive their own morphology.

What do we actually mean by talent in business? Does it really matter?

[spa] La conceptuación de talento ha ido cobrando cada vez más importancia tanto para académicos como profesionales, con el fin de avanzar en el estudio de la gestión del talento. De hecho, la confusión sobre el significado de talento en la realidad empresarial impide llegar a un consenso sobre el concepto y la práctica de la gestión del talento. En este estudio teórico revisamos el concepto de talento en el mundo de la empresa con el fin de resumir lo que hemos aprendido y discutir las ventajas y limitaciones de las diferentes acepciones. Concluimos con la formulación de una definición de este concepto, ya que una correcta interpretación de la gestión del talento—por no hablar de una exitosa gestión del talento— depende de tener una comprensión clara de lo que se entiende por talento en un contexto organizativo. Además, con la definición de talento propuesta delimitamos el concepto de talento evitando algunos problemas detectados en las definiciones anteriores (por ejemplo, generalidades y tautologías), y poniendo de relieve las variables importantes que le afectan y lo hacen más manejable.

The mean-variance model from the inverse of the variance-covariance matrix

En este artículo, a partir de la inversa de la matriz de varianzas y covarianzas se obtiene el modelo Esperanza-Varianza de Markowitz siguiendo un camino más corto y matemáticamente riguroso. También se obtiene la ecuación de equilibrio del CAPM de Sharpe.

What do we actually mean by talent in business? Does it really matter?

[spa] La conceptuación de talento ha ido cobrando cada vez más importancia tanto para académicos como profesionales, con el fin de avanzar en el estudio de la gestión del talento. De hecho, la confusión sobre el significado de talento en la realidad empresarial impide llegar a un consenso sobre el concepto y la práctica de la gestión del talento. En este estudio teórico revisamos el concepto de talento en el mundo de la empresa con el fin de resumir lo que hemos aprendido y discutir las ventajas y limitaciones de las diferentes acepciones. Concluimos con la formulación de una definición de este concepto, ya que una correcta interpretación de la gestión del talento—por no hablar de una exitosa gestión del talento— depende de tener una comprensión clara de lo que se entiende por talento en un contexto organizativo. Además, con la definición de talento propuesta delimitamos el concepto de talento evitando algunos problemas detectados en las definiciones anteriores (por ejemplo, generalidades y tautologías), y poniendo de relieve las variables importantes que le afectan y lo hacen más manejable.

Spatial variability of physical attributes of an alfisol under different hillslope curvatures

The influence of relief forms has been studied by several authors and explains the variability in the soil attributes of a landscape. Soil physical attributes depend on relief forms, and their assessment is important in mechanized agricultural systems, such as of sugarcane. This study aimed to characterize the spatial variability in the physical soil attributes and their relationship to the hillslope curvatures in an Alfisol developed from sandstone and growing sugarcane. Grids of 100 x 100 m were delimited in a convex and a concave area. The grids had a regular spacing of 10 x 10 m, and the crossing points of this spacing determined a total of 121 georeferenced sampling points. Samples were collected to determine the physical attributes related to soil aggregates, porosity, bulk density, resistance to penetration and moisture within the 0-0.2 and 0.2-0.4 m depth. Statistical analyses, geostatistics and Student's t-tests were performed with the means of the areas. All attributes, except aggregates > 2 mm in the 0-0.2 m depth and macroporosity at both depths, showed significant differences between the hillslope curvatures. The convex area showed the highest values of the mean weighted diameter, mean geometric diameter, aggregates > 2 mm, 1-2 mm aggregates, total porosity and moisture and lower values of bulk density and resistance to penetration in both depth compared to the concave area. The number of soil attributes with greater spatial variability was higher in the concave area.