A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Exploration of geological variability and possible processes through the use of compositional data analysis: an example using scottish metamorphosed

Developments in the statistical analysis of compositional data over the last twodecades have made possible a much deeper exploration of the nature of variability,and the possible processes associated with compositional data sets from manydisciplines. In this paper we concentrate on geochemical data sets. First we explainhow hypotheses of compositional variability may be formulated within the naturalsample space, the unit simplex, including useful hypotheses of subcompositionaldiscrimination and specific perturbational change. Then we develop through standardmethodology, such as generalised likelihood ratio tests, statistical tools to allow thesystematic investigation of a complete lattice of such hypotheses. Some of these tests are simple adaptations of existing multivariate tests but others require specialconstruction. We comment on the use of graphical methods in compositional dataanalysis and on the ordination of specimens. The recent development of the conceptof compositional processes is then explained together with the necessary tools for astaying- in-the-simplex approach, namely compositional singular value decompositions. All these statistical techniques are illustrated for a substantial compositional data set, consisting of 209 major-oxide and rare-element compositions of metamorphosed limestones from the Northeast and Central Highlands of Scotland.Finally we point out a number of unresolved problems in the statistical analysis ofcompositional processes

Compositional Data Analysis with R

R from http://www.r-project.org/ is ‘GNU S’ – a language and environment for statistical computingand graphics. The environment in which many classical and modern statistical techniques havebeen implemented, but many are supplied as packages. There are 8 standard packages and many moreare available through the cran family of Internet sites http://cran.r-project.org .We started to develop a library of functions in R to support the analysis of mixtures and our goal isa MixeR package for compositional data analysis that provides support foroperations on compositions: perturbation and power multiplication, subcomposition with or withoutresiduals, centering of the data, computing Aitchison’s, Euclidean, Bhattacharyya distances,compositional Kullback-Leibler divergence etc.graphical presentation of compositions in ternary diagrams and tetrahedrons with additional features:barycenter, geometric mean of the data set, the percentiles lines, marking and coloring ofsubsets of the data set, theirs geometric means, notation of individual data in the set . . .dealing with zeros and missing values in compositional data sets with R procedures for simpleand multiplicative replacement strategy,the time series analysis of compositional data.We’ll present the current status of MixeR development and illustrate its use on selected data sets

Vision-based localization of an underwater robot in a structured environment

This paper presents a vision-based localization approach for an underwater robot in a structured environment. The system is based on a coded pattern placed on the bottom of a water tank and an onboard down looking camera. Main features are, absolute and map-based localization, landmark detection and tracking, and real-time computation (12.5 Hz). The proposed system provides three-dimensional position and orientation of the vehicle along with its velocity. Accuracy of the drift-free estimates is very high, allowing them to be used as feedback measures of a velocity-based low-level controller. The paper details the localization algorithm, by showing some graphical results, and the accuracy of the system

On the use of principal components in contemporany population genetics: a case study

In human Population Genetics, routine applications of principal component techniques are oftenrequired. Population biologists make widespread use of certain discrete classifications of humansamples into haplotypes, the monophyletic units of phylogenetic trees constructed from severalsingle nucleotide bimorphisms hierarchically ordered. Compositional frequencies of the haplotypesare recorded within the different samples. Principal component techniques are then required as adimension-reducing strategy to bring the dimension of the problem to a manageable level, say two,to allow for graphical analysis.Population biologists at large are not aware of the special features of compositional data and normally make use of the crude covariance of compositional relative frequencies to construct principalcomponents. In this short note we present our experience with using traditional linear principalcomponents or compositional principal components based on logratios, with reference to a specificdataset

Neptune: a hil simulator for multiple UUVs

This paper overviews the field of graphical simulators used for AUV development, presents the taxonomy of these applications and proposes a classification. It also presents Neptune, a multivehicle, real-time, graphical simulator based on OpenGL that allows hardware in the loop simulations

CODAPACK3D. A new version of Compositional Data Package

The statistical analysis of compositional data should be treated using logratios of parts,which are difficult to use correctly in standard statistical packages. For this reason afreeware package, named CoDaPack was created. This software implements most of thebasic statistical methods suitable for compositional data.In this paper we describe the new version of the package that now is calledCoDaPack3D. It is developed in Visual Basic for applications (associated with Excel©),Visual Basic and Open GL, and it is oriented towards users with a minimum knowledgeof computers with the aim at being simple and easy to use.This new version includes new graphical output in 2D and 3D. These outputs could bezoomed and, in 3D, rotated. Also a customization menu is included and outputs couldbe saved in jpeg format. Also this new version includes an interactive help and alldialog windows have been improved in order to facilitate its use.To use CoDaPack one has to access Excel© and introduce the data in a standardspreadsheet. These should be organized as a matrix where Excel© rows correspond tothe observations and columns to the parts. The user executes macros that returnnumerical or graphical results. There are two kinds of numerical results: new variablesand descriptive statistics, and both appear on the same sheet. Graphical output appearsin independent windows. In the present version there are 8 menus, with a total of 38submenus which, after some dialogue, directly call the corresponding macro. Thedialogues ask the user to input variables and further parameters needed, as well aswhere to put these results. The web site http://ima.udg.es/CoDaPack contains thisfreeware package and only Microsoft Excel© under Microsoft Windows© is required torun the software.Kew words: Compositional data Analysis, Software

Investigation into in vitro anti-leishmanial combinations of calcium channel blockers and current anti-leishmanial drugs

The need for drug combinations to treat visceral leishmaniasis (VL) arose because of resistance to antimonials, the toxicity of current treatments and the length of the course of therapy. Calcium channel blockers (CCBs) have shown anti-leishmanial activity; therefore their use in combination with standard drugs could provide new alternatives for the treatment of VL. In this work, in vitro isobolograms of Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi using promastigotes or intracellular amastigotes were utilised to identify the interactions between five CCBs and the standard drugs pentamidine, amphotericin B and glucantime. The drug interactions were assessed with a fixed ratio isobologram method and the fractional inhibitory concentrations (FICs), sum of FICs (ΣFICs) and the overall mean ΣFIC were calculated for each combination. Graphical isobologram analysis showed that the combination of nimodipine and glucantime was the most promising in amastigotes with an overall mean ΣFIC value of 0.79. Interactions between CCBs and the anti-leishmanial drugs were classified as indifferent according to the overall mean ΣFIC and the isobologram graphic analysis.

A human astrocytoma cell line is highly susceptible to infection with Trypanosoma cruzi

Astrocytes play a vital role in neuronal protection, homeostasis, vascular interchange and the local immune response. Some viruses and parasites can cross the blood-brain barrier and infect glia. Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of Chagas disease, can seriously compromise the central nervous system, mainly in immune-suppressed individuals, but also during the acute phase of the infection. In this report, the infective capacity of T. cruzi in a human astrocyte tumour-derived cell line was studied. Astrocytes exposed to trypomastigotes (1:10 ratio) produced intracellular amastigotes and new trypomastigotes emerged by day 4 post-infection (p.i.). At day 6 p.i., 93% of the cells were infected. Using flow cytometry, changes were observed in both the expression of major histocompatibility complex class I and II molecules and the chemokine secretion pattern of astrocytes exposed to the parasite. Blocking the low-density lipoprotein receptor on astrocytes did not reduce parasite intracellular infection. Thus, T. cruzi can infect astrocytes and modulate the immune response during central nervous system infection.

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Aplicació per la creació de classes interactives de Ciclo Indoor

Es tracta d'un projecte evolutiu que permetrà crear una aplicació que serveixi de suport gràfic per a les classes de Ciclo Indoor i que a més a més permetrà al professor preparar-les en pocs minuts. També tindrà un apartat dedicat a gestionar als usuaris del sistema mitjançant una connexió a una base de dades que també ha sigut dissenyada i desenvolupada en aquest projete.

Econometrics on GPUs

A graphical processing unit (GPU) is a hardware device normally used to manipulate computer memory for the display of images. GPU computing is the practice of using a GPU device for scientific or general purpose computations that are not necessarily related to the display of images. Many problems in econometrics have a structure that allows for successful use of GPU computing. We explore two examples. The first is simple: repeated evaluation of a likelihood function at different parameter values. The second is a more complicated estimator that involves simulation and nonparametric fitting. We find speedups from 1.5 up to 55.4 times, compared to computations done on a single CPU core. These speedups can be obtained with very little expense, energy consumption, and time dedicated to system maintenance, compared to equivalent performance solutions using CPUs. Code for the examples is provided.

A multidimensional segmentation evaluation for medical image data.

Evaluation of segmentation methods is a crucial aspect in image processing, especially in the medical imaging field, where small differences between segmented regions in the anatomy can be of paramount importance. Usually, segmentation evaluation is based on a measure that depends on the number of segmented voxels inside and outside of some reference regions that are called gold standards. Although some other measures have been also used, in this work we propose a set of new similarity measures, based on different features, such as the location and intensity values of the misclassified voxels, and the connectivity and the boundaries of the segmented data. Using the multidimensional information provided by these measures, we propose a new evaluation method whose results are visualized applying a Principal Component Analysis of the data, obtaining a simplified graphical method to compare different segmentation results. We have carried out an intensive study using several classic segmentation methods applied to a set of MRI simulated data of the brain with several noise and RF inhomogeneity levels, and also to real data, showing that the new measures proposed here and the results that we have obtained from the multidimensional evaluation, improve the robustness of the evaluation and provides better understanding about the difference between segmentation methods.

Portafolio selection with skewness: a comparison of methods and a generalized two fund separation result

This contribution compares existing and newly developed techniques for geometrically representing mean-variances-kewness portfolio frontiers based on the rather widely adapted methodology of polynomial goal programming (PGP) on the one hand and the more recent approach based on the shortage function on the other hand. Moreover, we explain the working of these different methodologies in detail and provide graphical illustrations. Inspired by these illustrations, we prove a generalization of the well-known two fund separation theorem from traditionalmean-variance portfolio theory.

Estado del arte de los gestores de ventanas en GNU/Linux

Proyecto que recoge el estado del arte de los gestores de ventanas de GNU/Linux, incorporando un análisis y comparativa de los principales gestores de ventanas.