Combining follow-up and change data is valid in meta-analyses of continuous outcomes: a meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE To investigate whether it is valid to combine follow-up and change data when conducting meta-analyses of continuous outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Meta-epidemiological study of randomized controlled trials in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee/hip, which assessed patient-reported pain. We calculated standardized mean differences (SMDs) based on follow-up and change data, and pooled within-trial differences in SMDs. We also derived pooled SMDs indicating the largest treatment effect within a trial (optimistic selection of SMDs) and derived pooled SMDs from the estimate indicating the smallest treatment effect within a trial (pessimistic selection of SMDs). RESULTS A total of 21 meta-analyses with 189 trials with 292 randomized comparisons in 41,256 patients were included. On average, SMDs were 0.04 standard deviation units more beneficial when follow-up values were used (difference in SMDs: -0.04; 95% confidence interval: -0.13, 0.06; P=0.44). In 13 meta-analyses (62%), there was a relevant difference in clinical and/or significance level between optimistic and pessimistic pooled SMDs. CONCLUSION On average, there is no relevant difference between follow-up and change data SMDs, and combining these estimates in meta-analysis is generally valid. Decision on which type of data to use when both follow-up and change data are available should be prespecified in the meta-analysis protocol.

Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Methodology of a nationwide cross-sectional survey of prevalence and epidemiological patterns of hepatitis A, B and C infection in Brazil

Um inquérito de base populacional foi conduzido na população urbana de todas as capitais e do Distrito Federal no Brasil para fornecer informações sobre a prevalência de hepatites virais e fatores de risco, entre 2005 e 2009. Este artigo descreve o delineamento e a metodologia do estudo que envolveu a população com idade entre 5 e 19 anos para hepatite A e 10 a 69 anos para hepatite B e C. As entrevistas e amostras de sangue foram obtidas através de visitas domiciliares e a amostra selecionada a partir de uma amostragem estratificada em múltiplos estágios (por conglomerado) com igual probabilidade para cada domínio de estudo (região e faixa etária). Nacionalmente, 19.280 residências e ~31.000 indivíduos foram selecionados. O tamanho da amostra foi suficiente para detectar uma prevalência em torno de 0,1% e para avaliar os fatores de risco por região. A metodologia apresentou-se viável para distinguir entre diferentes padrões epidemiológicos da hepatite A, B e C. Estes dados serão de valia para a avaliação das políticas de vacinação e para o desenho de estratégias de controle.

Disparity between Multilocus Enzyme Electrophoresis, Microsatellite Markers and Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis in epidemiological tracking of Candida albicans

Various molecular systems are available for epidemiological, genetic, evolutionary, taxonomic and systematic studies of innumerable fungal infections, especially those caused by the opportunistic pathogen C. albicans. A total of 75 independent oral isolates were selected in order to compare Multilocus Enzyme Electrophoresis (MLEE), Electrophoretic Karyotyping (EK) and Microsatellite Markers (Simple Sequence Repeats - SSRs), in their abilities to differentiate and group C. albicans isolates (discriminatory power), and also, to evaluate the concordance and similarity of the groups of strains determined by cluster analysis for each fingerprinting method. Isoenzyme typing was performed using eleven enzyme systems: Adh, Sdh, M1p, Mdh, Idh, Gdh, G6pdh, Asd, Cat, Po, and Lap (data previously published). The EK method consisted of chromosomal DNA separation by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis using a CHEF system. The microsatellite markers were investigated by PCR using three polymorphic loci: EF3, CDC3, and HIS3. Dendrograms were generated by the SAHN method and UPGMA algorithm based on similarity matrices (S(SM)). The discriminatory power of the three methods was over 95%, however a paired analysis among them showed a parity of 19.7-22.4% in the identification of strains. Weak correlation was also observed among the genetic similarity matrices (S(SM)(MLEE) x S(SM)(EK) x S(SM)(SSRs)). Clustering analyses showed a mean of 9 +/- 12.4 isolates per cluster (3.8 +/- 8 isolates/taxon) for MLEE, 6.2 +/- 4.9 isolates per cluster (4 +/- 4.5 isolates/taxon) for SSRs, and 4.1 +/- 2.3 isolates per cluster (2.6 +/- 2.3 isolates/taxon) for EK. A total of 45 (13%), 39(11.2%), 5 (1.4%) and 3 (0.9%) clusters pairs from 347 showed similarity (Si) of 0.1-10%, 10.1-20%, 20.1-30% and 30.1-40%, respectively. Clinical and molecular epidemiological correlation involving the opportunistic pathogen C. albicans may be attributed dependently of each method of genotyping (i.e., MLEE, EK, and SSRs) supplemented with similarity and grouping analysis. Therefore, the use of genotyping systems that give results which offer minimum disparity, or the combination of the results of these systems, can provide greater security and consistency in the determination of strains and their genetic relationships. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ethical considerations for drug abuse epidemiological research

The mortality and morbidity caused by alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug misuse represents a significant public health burden (Ezzati et al., 2002). A key part of the public health response is the collection of epidemiological and social science data to define at-risk populations to identify opportunities for intervention and to evaluate the effectiveness of policies in preventing or treating drug misuse and drug-related harm. The systematic use of epidemiological and social science research methods to study illicit drug use is barely 40 years old in the United States and United Kingdom, which have pioneered this approach. Because of the sensitive nature of epidemiological research on illicit drug use a unique set of ethical challenges need to be explicitly addressed by the field. Although ethics guidelines have been proposed (Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences, 1991), scholarship on the ethics of epidemiology is scant, and consensus on core values not yet achieved (Coughlin, 2000).

Symptoms of Temporomandibular Disorders in the Population: An Epidemiological Study

Aims: To estimate the prevalence of symptoms of temporomandibular disorders (TMD) as a function of age and gender, in a representative urban sample from the Brazilian population. Methods: A total of 1,230 inhabitants (51.5% women) aged 15 to 65 years were interviewed by a validated phone survey. Sample size had been previously calculated. TMD symptoms were assessed through five questions, as recommended by the American Academy of Orofacial Pain, in an attempt to identify possible TMD. Data were derived by age and gender. Prevalence of each TMD symptom, and of combination of symptoms, was calculated. Results: At least one TMD symptom was reported by 39.2% of the individuals. Pain related to TMD was noted by 25.6% of the population. Temporomandibular joint (TMJ) sound was the most common symptom of TMD, followed by TMJ pain and masticatory muscle pain. All symptoms were more prevalent in women than in men. With men used as the reference, a relative risk (RR) of at least one TMD symptom in women was 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.14 to 1.52). When at least two symptoms were present, the RR was 1.93 (95% CI = 1.49 to 2.51). For three or more TMD symptoms, the RR was 2.49 (95% CI = 1.67 to 3.71). Women were also more likely than men to have TMD pain (RR = 1.78; 9% CI = 1.45 to 2.18). Conclusion: Individual symptoms, as well as a combination of TMD symptoms, are prevalent in the Brazilian urban population and are more frequent in women than in men. Additional studies should focus on risk factors for and relevance of TMD for the sufferers. J OROFAC PAIN 2010;24:270-278

Oral lesions and immune reconstitution syndrome in HIV+/AIDS patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy. Epidemiological evidence

Objective: To determine whether opportunistic oral infections associated to HIV infection (OOI-HIV) are found in HIV+/AIDS patients with immune reconstitution related to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods. From among 1100 HIV+/AIDS patients (Service of Internal Medicine, Carlos Haya Hospital, Malaga, Spain) subjected to review of the oral cavity between January 1996 and May 2007, we identified those examined in 1996 and which were again examined between 1997 and 2007, and were moreover receiving HAART. The following data were collected: age, gender, form of contagion, antiretroviral therapy at the time of review, number of CD4+ lymphocytes/ml, and viral load (from 1997 onwards). We identified those subjects with an increase in CD4+ lymphocytes/ ml associated to HAART, and classified them as subjects with quantitative evidence of immune reconstitution (QEIR). Among these individuals with QEIR we moreover identified those with undetectable viral loads (QEIR+VL), and differentiated those patients with an increase in CD4+ lymphocytes > 500/ml (QEIRm+VL). In each group we determined the prevalence of OOI-HIV, following the diagnostic recommendations of the EC-Clearinghouse (CDC-Atlanta, USA - WHO). In addition, we analyzed the prevalence of OOI-HIV in the different groups in relation to the duration of HAART. Results. A total of 86 subjects were included (44 females and 42 males; 19 heterosexuals, 34 male homosexuals, and 33 intravenous drug abusers). Forty-two patients showed QEIR: 21 belonged to the QEIR+VL group, and 17 conformed the QEIRm+VL group. The prevalence of OOI-HIV per group was as follows: QEIR = 54.8%; QEIR+VL = 33%; QEIRm+VL = 35%. The most prevalent lesion in all groups was erythematous candidiasis. OOI-HIV increased with the duration of HAART (p=0.008), and were seen to be dependent upon late appearance of the mycotic lesions ( after 24 months under HAART). Conclusions: It is suggested that opportunistic oral infections associated to HIV infection form part of the clinical picture of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome, though such infections are of late onset.

Matching prescription claims with medication data for nursing home residents: Implications for prescriber feedback, drug utilisation studies and selection of prescription claims database

Medication data retrieved from Australian Repatriation Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (RPBS) claims for 44 veterans residing in nursing homes and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) claims for 898 nursing home residents were compared with medication data from nursing home records to determine the optimal time interval for retrieving claims data and its validity. Optimal matching was achieved using 12 weeks of RPBS claims data, with 60% of medications in the RPBS claims located in nursing home administration records, and 78% of medications administered to nursing home residents identified in RPBS claims. In comparison, 48% of medications administered to nursing home residents could be found in 12 weeks of PBS data, and 56% of medications present in PBS claims could be matched with nursing home administration records. RPBS claims data was superior to PBS, due to the larger number of scheduled items available to veterans and the veteran's file number, which acts as a unique identifier. These findings should be taken into account when using prescription claims data for medication histories, prescriber feedback, drug utilisation, intervention or epidemiological studies. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration - data from Australia and the Netherlands

Back ground. Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. Methods. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland. Australia n = 6630; The Netherlands n = 24, 474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration, Males and females were assessed separately. Results. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females, Conclusions. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Epidemiological role of humans, dogs and cats in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in a central area of Argentina

Trypanosoma cruzi prevalence rates of human, dog and cat populations from 47 households of 3 rural localities of the phytogeographical Chaqueña area of Argentina were determined both by serological and xenodiagnostic procedures. Human prevalence rates were uniform and ranged from 49.6 to 58.7%. Overall prevalence rate in dogs (75.0%) was significantly higher than in humans (51.0%). The overall proportion of parasitemic individuals assessed by xenodiagnosis was significantly higher in either dog (64.2%) or cat (63.6%) populations than among humans (12.5%). Although both the average number of resident as well as infected individuals per household was higher for people than for dogs (6.5 vs. 3.3, and 3.4 vs. 2.4, respectively), the reverse was recorded when parasitemic individuals were considered (1.0 vs. 2.1). Results are discussed in relation to dog between dogs and people, and dogs and bugs. In the light of present data, dogs must be considered as the major donors of parasites to vector bugs and thus, principal contributors to transmission in this region of Argentina.

Trends of T. cruzi infection based on data from blood bank screening

Between October 1988 and April 1989 a cross-sectional survey was carried out in six out of eight blood banks of Goiânia, Central Brazil. Subjects attending for first-time blood donation in the mornings of the study period (n = 1358) were interviewed and screened for T. cruzi infection as a part of a major study among blood donors. Tests to anti-T. cruzi antibodies were performed, simultaneously, by indirect hem agglutination test (IHA) and complement fixation test (CFT). A subject was considered seropositive when any one of the two tests showed a positive result. Information on age, sex, place of birth, migration and socio-economic level was recorded. Results from this survey were compared with seroprevalence rates obtained in previous studies in an attempt to analyse trend of T. cruzi infection in an endemic urban area. The overall seroprevalence of T. cruzi infection among first-time donors was found to be 3.5% (95% confidence interval 2.5%-4.5% ). The seroprevalence rate increased with age up to 45 years and then decreased. Migrants from rural areas had higher seroprevalence rates than subjects from urban counties (1.8%-16.2% vs. 0%-3.6%). A four fold decrease in prevalence rates was observed when these rates were compared with those of fifteen years ago. Two possible hypotheses to explain this difference were suggested: 1. a cohort effect related with the decrease of transmission in rural areas and/or 2. a differential proportion of people of rural origin among blood donors between the two periods. The potential usefulness of blood banks as a source of epidemiological information to monitor trends of T. cruzi infection in an urban adult population was stressed.

Socio-demographic and epidemiological characteristics associated with human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1) infection in HIV-1-explosed but uninfected individuals, and in HIV-1-infected patients from a southern brasilian population

The ability to control human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection and progression of the disease is regulated by host and viral factors. This cross-sectional study describes the socio-demographic and epidemiological characteristics associated with HIV-1 infection in 1,061 subjects attended in Londrina and region, south of Brazil: 136 healthy individuals (Group 1), 147 HIV-1-exposed but uninfected individuals (Group 2), 161 HIV-1-infected asymptomatic patients (Group 3), and 617 patients with AIDS (Group 4). Data were obtained by a standardized questionnaire and serological tests. The age of the individuals ranged from 15.1 to 79.5 years, 54.0% and 56.1% of the Groups 3 and 4 patients, respectively, were men. The major features of groups 2, 3, and 4 were a predominance of education level up to secondary school (55.8%, 60.2% and 62.4%, respectively), sexual route of exposure (88.4%, 87.0% and 82.0%, respectively), heterosexual behavior (91.8%, 75.2% and 83.7%, respectively), and previous sexually transmitted diseases (20.4%, 32.5%, and 38.1%, respectively). The patients with AIDS showed the highest rates of seropositivity for syphilis (25.6%), of anti-HCV (22.3%), and anti-HTLV I/II obtained by two serological screening tests (6.2% and 6.8%, respectively). The results documenting the predominant characteristics for HIV-1 infection among residents of Londrina and region, could be useful for the improvement of current HIV-1 prevention, monitoring and therapeutic programs targeted at this population.

Scorpion stings in Turkey: epidemiological and clinical aspects between the years 1995 and 2004

The most important health-threatening scorpions found in Turkey are; Androctonus crassicauda, Leiurus quinquestriatus, Mesobuthus gibbosus and M. eupeus species, all of which belong to the Buthidae family. The epidemiological and clinical findings of scorpion stings in Turkey were evaluated between the years 1995 and 2004 based on data recorded in the National Poison Information Center (NPIC). A total of 930 cases were recorded. The cases mostly occurred in the month of July. The gender distribution was 50.22% female and 45.48% male. It was shown that the 20-29 age group presented more scorpion stings. Most of the stings occurred in Central Anatolia and Marmara regions of Turkey. Patients at the hospital showed signs of localized (pain, hyperemia, edema and numbness) and systemic effects (hyperthermia, nausea and vomiting, tachycardia, shivering and lethargy) but no lethality was notified. According to records, 33% of the poisoned patients were treated with antivenin in healthcare facilities.

Epidemiological profile of malaria in the state of Tocantins, Brazil, from 2003 to 2008

This study describes the epidemiological profile of malaria in the State of Tocantins, in the period 2003-2008, investigates the association between the frequency of malaria and population growth, classifies the cases by 'autochthonous' and 'imported', reports the indices of the disease and analyses the distribution of the cases by Plasmodium species, age and gender. The retrospective study was based on secondary data, stored in SIVEP-malaria and analyzed using the software Epi-Info 3.5.1. and Bioestat 5.0. 19,004 samples were investigated for malaria, 19% of them were positive, 73.32% with Plasmodium vivax, 21.80% with Plasmodium falciparum, 4.79% with mixed infections and only 0.08% with Plasmodium malariae. Male individuals accounted for 76.95% and predominated in all years and age groups, especially in the 15 to 49 years old group. From the overall cases, 34.27% were autochthonous and 65.73% were imported (χ2 = 356.8, p = 0.0001). The frequency of malaria decreased significantly during the entire series (rp = 0.96, p = 0.002) and the number of municipalities with autochthonous transmission also diminished. It was found that malaria is predominantly imported, related to land activities, which confirms the need for effective measures to maintain vigilance throughout the state and enhance educational activities in order to guide the population towards early treatment-seeking.