The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill.

Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles

Convection-permitting modelling has led to a step change in forecasting convective events. However, convection occurs within different regimes which exhibit different forecast behaviour. A convective adjustment timescale can be used to distinguish between these regimes and examine their associated predictability. The convective adjustment timescale is calculated from radiosonde ascents and found to be consistent with that derived from convection-permitting model forecasts. The model-derived convective adjustment timescale is then examined for three summers in the British Isles to determine characteristics of the convective regimes for this maritime region. Convection in the British Isles is predominantly in convective quasi-equilibrium with 85%of convection having a timescale less than or equal to three hours. This percentage varies spatially with more non-equilibriumevents occurring in the south and southwest. The convective adjustment timescale exhibits a diurnal cycle over land. The nonequilibrium regime occurs more frequently at mid-range wind speeds and with winds from southerly to westerly sectors. Most non-equilibrium convective events in the British Isles are initiated near large coastal orographic gradients or on the European continent. Thus, the convective adjustment timescale is greatest when the location being examined is immediately downstream of large orographic gradients and decreases with distance from the convective initiation region. The dominance of convective quasiequilibrium conditions over the British Isles argues for the use of large-member ensembles in probabilistic forecasts for this region.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

Extending the use of canonical and microcanonical Monte Carlo algorithms to spin models

We describe the canonical and microcanonical Monte Carlo algorithms for different systems that can be described by spin models. Sites of the lattice, chosen at random, interchange their spin values, provided they are different. The canonical ensemble is generated by performing exchanges according to the Metropolis prescription whereas in the microcanonical ensemble, exchanges are performed as long as the total energy remains constant. A systematic finite size analysis of intensive quantities and a comparison with results obtained from distinct ensembles are performed and the quality of results reveal that the present approach may be an useful tool for the study of phase transitions, specially first-order transitions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decomposition of spectral density in individual eigenvalue contributions

The eigenvalue densities of two random matrix ensembles, the Wigner Gaussian matrices and the Wishart covariant matrices, are decomposed in the contributions of each individual eigenvalue distribution. It is shown that the fluctuations of all eigenvalues, for medium matrix sizes, are described with a good precision by nearly normal distributions.

Epidemics in networks of spatially correlated three-dimensional root-branching structures

Using digitized images of the three-dimensional, branching structures for root systems of bean seedlings, together with analytical and numerical methods that map a common susceptible-infected- recovered (`SIR`) epidemiological model onto the bond percolation problem, we show how the spatially correlated branching structures of plant roots affect transmission efficiencies, and hence the invasion criterion, for a soil-borne pathogen as it spreads through ensembles of morphologically complex hosts. We conclude that the inherent heterogeneities in transmissibilities arising from correlations in the degrees of overlap between neighbouring plants render a population of root systems less susceptible to epidemic invasion than a corresponding homogeneous system. Several components of morphological complexity are analysed that contribute to disorder and heterogeneities in the transmissibility of infection. Anisotropy in root shape is shown to increase resilience to epidemic invasion, while increasing the degree of branching enhances the spread of epidemics in the population of roots. Some extension of the methods for other epidemiological systems are discussed.

One, two or no record of late neoproterozoic glaciation in South-East Cameroon?

Severe climate changes culminating in at least three major glacial events have been recognized in the Neoproterozoic sedimentary record from many parts of the world Supportive to the global nature of these climatic shifts a considerable amount of data have been acquired from deposits exposed in Pan-African orogenic belts in southwestern and western Africa By comparison published data from the Pan-African belts in Central Africa are scarce We report here evidence of possibly two glacial events recorded in the Mintom Formation that is located on the margin of the Pan-African orogenic Yaounde belt in South-East Cameroon In the absence of reliable radiometric data only maximum and minimum age limits of 640 and 580 Ma respectively can at present be applied to the Mintom Formation The formation consists of two lithostratigraphic ensembles each subdivided in two members (i e in ascending stratigraphic order the Kol Metou Momibole and Atog Adjap Members) The basal ensemble exhibits a typical glacial to post-glacial succession It includes diamictites comprising cobbles and boulders in a massive argillaceous siltstone matrix and laminated siltstones followed by in sharp contact a 2 m-thick massive dolostone that yielded negative delta(13)C values (<-3 parts per thousand. V-PDB) similar to those reported for Marinoan cap carbonates elsewhere However uncertainty remains regarding the glacial influence on the siliciclastic facies because the diamictite is better explained as a mass-flow deposit and diagnostic features such as dropstones have not been seen in the overlying siltstones The Mintom Formation may thus provide an example of an unusual succession of non-glacial diamictite overlain by a truly glacial melt-related cap-carbonate We also report the recent discovery of ice-striated pavements on the structural surface cut in the Mintom Formation suggesting that glaciers developed after the latter had been deposited and deformed during the Pan-African orogeny Striations which consistently exhibit two principal orientations (N60 and N110) were identified in two different localities in the west of the study area on siltstones of the Kol Member and in the east on limestones of the Atog Adjap Member respectively N60-oriented striae indicate ice flow towards the WSW Assigning an age to these features remains problematical because they were not found associated with glaciogenic deposits Two hypotheses can equally be envisaged e either the striated surfaces are correlated (1) to the Gaskiers (or Neoproterozoic post-Gaskiers) glaciation and represent the youngest Ediacaran glacial event documented in the southern Yaounde belt or (2) to the Late Ordovician Hirnantian (Saharan) glaciation thereby providing new data about Hirnantian ice flows in Central Africa (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Flexibility and inhibitor binding in Cdc25 phosphatases

Cdc25 phosphatases involved in cell cycle checkpoints are now active targets for the development of anti-cancer therapies. Rational drug design would certainly benefit from detailed structural information for Cdc25s. However, only apo- or sulfate-bound crystal structures of the Cdc25 catalytic domain have been described so far. Together with previously available crystalographic data, results from molecular dynamics simulations, bioinformatic analysis, and computer-generated conformational ensembles shown here indicate that the last 30-40 residues in the C-terminus of Cdc25B are partially unfolded or disordered in solution. The effect of C-terminal flexibility upon binding of two potent small molecule inhibitors to Cdc25B is then analyzed by using three structural models with variable levels of flexibility, including an equilibrium distributed ensemble of Cdc25B backbone conformations. The three Cdc25B structural models are used in combination with flexible docking, clustering, and calculation of binding free energies by the linear interaction energy approximation to construct and validate Cdc25B-inhibitor complexes. Two binding sites are identified on top and beside the Cdc25B active site. The diversity of interaction modes found increases with receptor flexibility. Backbone flexibility allows the formation of transient cavities or compact hydrophobic units on the surface of the stable, folded protein core that are unexposed or unavailable for ligand binding in rigid and densely packed crystal structures. The present results may help to speculate on the mechanisms of small molecule complexation to partially unfolded or locally disordered proteins.

Model Configuration And Data Management In The Short-Term Water Information Forecasting Tools

The Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) is a suite of tools for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting, consisting of a collection of hydrologic model components and utilities. Catchments are modeled using conceptual subareas and a node-link structure for channel routing. The tools comprise modules for calibration, model state updating, output error correction, ensemble runs and data assimilation. Given the combinatorial nature of the modelling experiments and the sub-daily time steps typically used for simulations, the volume of model configurations and time series data is substantial and its management is not trivial. SWIFT is currently used mostly for research purposes but has also been used operationally, with intersecting but significantly different requirements. Early versions of SWIFT used mostly ad-hoc text files handled via Fortran code, with limited use of netCDF for time series data. The configuration and data handling modules have since been redesigned. The model configuration now follows a design where the data model is decoupled from the on-disk persistence mechanism. For research purposes the preferred on-disk format is JSON, to leverage numerous software libraries in a variety of languages, while retaining the legacy option of custom tab-separated text formats when it is a preferred access arrangement for the researcher. By decoupling data model and data persistence, it is much easier to interchangeably use for instance relational databases to provide stricter provenance and audit trail capabilities in an operational flood forecasting context. For the time series data, given the volume and required throughput, text based formats are usually inadequate. A schema derived from CF conventions has been designed to efficiently handle time series for SWIFT.

Aspects de la syntaxe, de la semantique et de la morphologie des verbes a trait de /complexite/

Cette dissertation porte sur l’analyse syntactico-sémantique des verbes à trait de complexité. Le trait de complexité (Blanche-Benveniste et al. 1984) réunit une classe de verbes connue comme verbes ‘symétriques’, ‘réciproques’ ou ‘collectifs’ sans toutefois se limiter à ces ensembles (cf. grouiller, collectionner, amonceler, scinder, etc.). Ce trait induit une lecture ‘plurielle’ à l’entité formée du lexème verbal et de ses arguments et qui se traduit, sur le plan morphosyntaxique, par deux propriétés: sélection obligatoire d’une position syntaxique (sujet ou objet) au pluriel; en absence de ce pluriel morphologique, le trait de complexité se réalise par la sélection d’un complément prépositionnel correlié à une position syntaxique (sujet ou objet) et l’interprétation de ‘pluriel’ des deux éléments correliés. L’hypothèse générale, et point de départ de cette dissertation, consiste à préciser l’interprétation de ‘pluralité inhérente’ des verbes à trait de complexité comme étant de type ‘collectif’, défini comme désignant du ‘plus d’un en un’ (Jespersen, 1971). La notion de ‘collectif’ est à distinguer de la notion de ‘pluriel’ (Gillon, 1992) et permet d’expliquer le lien entre les deux propriétés morphosyntaxiques présentées. Cette hypothèse générale s’appuie sur la sélection d’un ensemble d’outils d’analyse. Un premier outil vise à rendre compte, du point de vue formel, des réseaux syntactico-sémantiques, par une représentation abstraite de la syntaxe verbale, conçue comme une ‘syntaxe de position’ et où sont délimitées, autour du noyau verbal, deux zones syntaxiques (zone SUJET et zone OBJET) constituées de points d’ancrage du trait de complexité. En tenant compte de la spécificité du ‘collectif’ par rapport à la ‘pluralité’, le recours au concept d’opérateurs de complexité, entendus comme des opérateurs du trait [+discret] (Doetjes, 1999), permet de mieux définir la notion du ‘collectif’ appliquée au domaine verbal. Les différents opérateurs – affixes dérivationnels, constructions prépositionnelles, constructions en SE - se situent à différents niveaux de structuration. L’analyse par ‘opérateurs de complexité’ ([+discret]) présuppose également la prise en compte de la fonction quantitative. Dans cette perspective, ces opérateurs induisent différents degrés de l‘individuation’ des constituants du ‘collectif’ dénoté par la sémantique des verbes à trait de complexité. Les échelles de gradation de [+discret] rendent compte de cette propriété. Les valeurs de ‘plus d’un’ et ‘en un’ dénotées par les expressions verbales à trait de complexité sont interprétées comme faisant partie d’une structure conceptuelle de type ‘tout-intégré’ d’après l’approche lexicale et multidimensionnelle de la sémantique conceptuelle des relations parties/tout de Moltmann (1997).

Implementação de classificador de tarefas mentais baseado em EEG

BARBOSA, André F. ; SOUZA, Bryan C. ; PEREIRA JUNIOR, Antônio ; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D.de, . Implementação de Classificador de Tarefas Mentais Baseado em EEG. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE REDES NEURAIS, 9., 2009, Ouro Preto, MG. Anais... Ouro Preto, MG, 2009

An investigation of Hebbian phase sequences as assembly graphs

Hebb proposed that synapses between neurons that fire synchronously are strengthened, forming cell assemblies and phase sequences. The former, on a shorter scale, are ensembles of synchronized cells that function transiently as a closed processing system; the latter, on a larger scale, correspond to the sequential activation of cell assemblies able to represent percepts and behaviors. Nowadays, the recording of large neuronal populations allows for the detection of multiple cell assemblies. Within Hebb's theory, the next logical step is the analysis of phase sequences. Here we detected phase sequences as consecutive assembly activation patterns, and then analyzed their graph attributes in relation to behavior. We investigated action potentials recorded from the adult rat hippocampus and neocortex before, during and after novel object exploration (experimental periods). Within assembly graphs, each assembly corresponded to a node, and each edge corresponded to the temporal sequence of consecutive node activations. The sum of all assembly activations was proportional to firing rates, but the activity of individual assemblies was not. Assembly repertoire was stable across experimental periods, suggesting that novel experience does not create new assemblies in the adult rat. Assembly graph attributes, on the other hand, varied significantly across behavioral states and experimental periods, and were separable enough to correctly classify experimental periods (Naïve Bayes classifier; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.55 to 0.99) and behavioral states (waking, slow wave sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.64 to 0.98). Our findings agree with Hebb's view that assemblies correspond to primitive building blocks of representation, nearly unchanged in the adult, while phase sequences are labile across behavioral states and change after novel experience. The results are compatible with a role for phase sequences in behavior and cognition.

Projeto em Áreas Consolidadas de Patrimônio Cultural: Propostas para a Construção de uma Metodologia de Ensino

Le thème du patrimoine culturel architectural et urbain continue d avoir une place importante dans le milieu technique et scientifique. Le concept s est élargi et aujourd hui comprend différentes procédures de projets d intervention. L importance accordée au thème amène à l inclusion de la matière de techniques rétrospectives et aux contenus qui en sont liés: conservation, restauration, restructuration et reconstruction d édifices et ensembles urbains, dans les parcours des cours d architecture et d urbanisme au Brésil établies par le Ministère de l Education Nationale (MEC) dans les années quatre-vingt-dix, postérieurement incorporés dans les directrices disciplinaires nationales. Nous partons des discussions théoriques et conceptuelles du Domaine du Patrimoine Culturel, ainsi que des principales théories pédagogiques d enseignements et d apprentissage articulées au projet. Dans ce contexte les objectifs principaux de cette thèse consistent à systématiser et à analyser les principales procédures méthodologiques contribuant pour la construction de méthodes d enseignement tournée vers des activités pratiques dans ce domaine. Pour cela, la recherche a été systématisée dans une approche à deux niveaux. En ce qui concerne le premier, basé sur des données secondaires, neuf cours d architecture et urbanisme ont étés identifiés entre institutions publiques d enseignement supérieur dont huit brésiliennes et une française, considérées représentatives en ce qui concerne les pratiques d enseignement de projet et de patrimoine culturel. Trente disciplines dédiées à la matière ont été également reconnues initialement, et postérieurement, cinq disciplines qui possèdent un emploi du temps dédié à la pratique de projet ont aussi été reconnues. Dans le deuxième cas, basée sur des données primaires, ont étés analysées les méthodologies et les stratégies d enseignement de projet basées sur les définitions des matières et des autres éléments des plans de travail avec des observations, des entrevues et des questionnaires en trois ateliers. Par rapport aux résultats nous avons constaté que toutes les écoles possèdent les contenus de la matière, mais peu d entre elles privilégient la relation du projet appliqué au patrimoine culturel. Nous avons constaté que les questions des projets dans ce contexte, même s elles sont considérées complexes, ont privilégié le listage et l analyse du site. L atelier qui intègre les fondements des théories de préservation, l histoire de l architecture et urbanisme et techniques anciennes et actuelles, est mis en valeur comme un modèle cohérent avec les propositions d intégration des connaissances théoriques et pratiques du projet appliqué à la discipline. Basé sur ces constatations il est possible de démontrer quatre étapes du projet appliqué au patrimoine culturel: 1ª) les fondements généraux qui concernent les bases théoriques sur la préservation, histoire et technique rétrospective, par exemple, l appropriation de lois et normes et la sensibilisation de l élève sur les questions de patrimoine culturel; 2ª) le contacte avec la réalité qui inclut l appropriation du problème à partir de ces acteurs, de ces échelles, de cette lecture de site et l analyse de l objet d étude; 3ª) le développement de la proposition qui inclut programmes (fonctions existantes et propositions), définitions du partit (types d intervention), conception (hypothèse et discussion) et définition de proposition; 4ª) la finalisation du projet qui consiste à développer la proposition avec sa représentation graphique et sa présentation finale. Nous concluons que le projet en Domaine du Patrimoine Culturel demande une attention spéciale et doit être présent dans les cursus considérant les principes généraux nécessaires à la formation de l élève. Le binôme projet / patrimoine signifie avoir dans le cursus universitaire les contenus et questions nécessaires les connaissances, les variables et possibilités existantes dans le projet appliqué au patrimoine culturel de façon à ce que ces connaissances soient incorporées dans l exercice de projet et n apparaissent pas comme un simple contenu théorique sans articulation avec la pratique. Naturellement ces conclusions n épuisent pas la réflexion sur la question. Nous espérons que les analyses faites contribuent à définir des méthodologies d enseignements capables d êtres vérifiées et testées dans la pratique en salle de cours, et puisse collaborer avec les nouvelles recherches surtout celles qui ont pour but des nouvelles théories pédagogiques d enseignement apprentissage du projet en Domaine du Patrimoine Culturel