Employment patterns in contemporary retailing:gender and work in five supermarkets

This article examines trends in patterns of employment within contemporary retailing. It focuses upon five supermarkets in the Lancaster area. In each store the proportion of part-timers had increased during the 1980s. There were marked differences in the proportions of female full-time and part-time employees who were married. Management reported similar perceptions of the relative advantages and disadvantages of employing married women within their stores. These belief systems coexisted with radically divergent recruitment strategies by these managements. These variations were embedded witnin typical recruitment strategies in each of the firms examined. -from Authors

Offshore wind power forecasting error and electricity market implications

Wind energy has been identified as key to the European Union’s 2050 low carbon economy. However, as wind is a variable resource and stochastic by nature, it is difficult to plan and schedule the power system under varying wind power generation. This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact of the magnitude and variance of the offshore wind power forecast error on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price is analysed. The main findings of this research are that the magnitude of the offshore wind power forecast error has the largest impact on system generation costs and dispatch-down of wind, but the variance of the offshore wind power forecast error has the biggest impact on emissions costs and system marginal price. Overall offshore wind power forecast error variance results in a system marginal price increase of 9.6% in 2050.

Forecasting Death Rates Using Exogenous Determinants

Mortality models used for forecasting are predominantly based on the statistical properties of time series and do not generally incorporate an understanding of the forces driving secular trends. This paper addresses three research questions: Can the factors found in stochastic mortality-forecasting models be associated with real-world trends in health-related variables? Does inclusion of health-related factors in models improve forecasts? Do resulting models give better forecasts than existing stochastic mortality models? We consider whether the space spanned by the latent factor structure in mortality data can be adequately described by developments in gross domestic product, health expenditure and lifestyle-related risk factors using statistical techniques developed in macroeconomics and finance. These covariates are then shown to improve forecasts when incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results are comparable or better than benchmark stochastic mortality models.

The Reintegration of Sex Offenders: Barriers and Opportunities for Employment

The process of reintegration of offenders after release from prison, or during a community sentence, is a key aim of criminal justice policy. This article provides details from recent research that investigated the barriers and opportunities to employment for sex offenders. The authors describe the barriers that are faced by sex offenders and the anxieties that employers experience when employing sex offenders. The authors conclude that the approach taken by the State is less than reintegrative and serves to increase the barriers and reduce the opportunities for employment for sex offenders.

Bandwidth selection by cross-validation for forecasting long memory financial time series

The paper addresses the issue of choice of bandwidth in the application of semiparametric estimation of the long memory parameter in a univariate time series process. The focus is on the properties of forecasts from the long memory model. A variety of cross-validation methods based on out of sample forecasting properties are proposed. These procedures are used for the choice of bandwidth and subsequent model selection. Simulation evidence is presented that demonstrates the advantage of the proposed new methodology.

Enforcing Employment Discrimination Law - Potential Transplants from Italy to Britain and Vice Versa?

While substantive EU non-discrimination law has been harmonized in great detail, the enforcement regime for EU non-discrimination law consists merely of a few isolated elements. Thus, the pursuit of unity through harmonization in substantive EU law is accompanied by considerable regulatory autonomy for Member States in securing the efficiency of those laws, reflecting the diversity of national enforcement regimes, and resulting in twenty-seven different national models for enforcing discrimination law in labour markets. This article pursues two connected arguments through a comparison of rules for enforcing non-discrimination law in labour markets in Britain and Italy. First, it argues that enforcing non-discrimination law in labour markets is best achieved when responsive governance, repressive regulation and mainstreaming equality law are combined. Second, the article submits that diversity of national legal orders within the EU is not necessarily detrimental, as it offers opportunities for mutual learning across legal systems.The notion of mutual learning across systems is proposed in order to analyse the transnational migration of legal ideas within the EU. Such migration has been criticized in debates about the ‘transplantation’ of legal concepts or legal irritation through foreign legal ideas, in particular by comparative labour lawyers. However, EU harmonization policies in the field of non-discrimination law aim to impact on national labour laws. The article develops the notion of mutual learning across legal systems in order to establish conditions for transnational migration of legal ideas, and demonstrates the viability of these concepts by applying them to the field of non-discrimination law

Is China's fifth-largest inland lake to dry-up? Incorporated hydrological and satellite-based methods for forecasting Hulun Lake water levels

Hulun Lake, China's fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (-364±64 mm/yr, ∼70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ∼ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ∼ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.