Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Block models for improved earthwork allocation planning in linear infrastructure construction

Earthwork planning has been considered in this article and a generic block partitioning and modelling approach has been devised to provide strategic plans of various levels of detail. Conceptually this approach is more accurate and comprehensive than others, for instance those that are section based. In response to environmental concerns the metric for decision making was fuel consumption and emissions. Haulage distance and gradient are also included as they are important components of these metrics. Advantageously the fuel consumption metric is generic and captures the physical difficulties of travelling over inclines of different gradients, that is consistent across all hauling vehicles. For validation, the proposed models and techniques have been applied to a real world road project. The numerical investigations have demonstrated that the models can be solved with relatively little CPU time. The proposed block models also result in solutions of superior quality, i.e. they have reduced fuel consumption and cost. Furthermore the plans differ considerably from those based solely upon a distance based metric thus demonstrating a need for industry to reflect upon their current practices.

Storylines of institutional responses to climate change as a transformative stressor : the case of regional planning in South East Queensland, Australia

Institutional responses to climate change stresses through planning will require new and amended forms of governance. Institutional framing of change imperatives can significantly condition associated governance responses. This paper builds on scholarly conversations concerning the conceptual role of ‘storylines’ in shaping institutional responses to climate change through governance. It draws on conceptual perspectives of climate change as a ‘transformative stressor’, which can compel institutional transformation within planning. The concepts of storylines and transformative stressors are conceptually linked. The conceptual approach is applied to an empirical enquiry focused on the regional planning regime of South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. This paper reports and examines three institutional storylines of responding to climate change through planning governance in SEQ. It concludes that the manifestation of climate change as a transformative stressor in SEQ prompted institutional transformation, leading to a dominant storyline focused on climate adaptation as an important facet of regional planning governance.

Rethinking sustainable urban development: Towards an integrated planning and development process

A city is the most dramatic manifestation of human activities on the environment. This human dominated organism degrades natural habitats, simplifies species composition, disrupts hydrological systems, and modifies energy flow and nutrient cycling. Sustainable urban development is seen as a panacea to minimise these externalities caused by widespread human activities on the environment. The concept of sustainable urban development has been around over a considerably long-time as the need to adopt environmentally sustainable behaviours made the international community commit to it. However, to date such development has not been achieved in large scales anywhere around the globe. This review paper aims to look at the sustainable urban development concept from the lens of planning and development integration to generate new insights and directions. The paper reports the outcome of the review of the literature on planning and development approaches—i.e., urban planning, ecological planning, urban development, sustainable urban development—and proposes a new process to support the efforts for achieving sustainable urban development—i.e., integrated urban planning and development process. The findings of this review paper highlights that adopting such holistic planning and development process generate a potential to further support the progress towards achieving sustainability agendas of our cities.

Putting people in planning: participatory democracy, community building and social inclusion

Like other Western nations, since the nineteenth century Australia has been a representative democracy, in which citizens elect parliamentary representatives to make decisions and develop policies on their behalf (see chapter 5). These representatives are supported in their decision making by an ‘arm’s-length’, ‘techno-bureaucratic administration’, which includes experts such as environmental planners (Fung and Wright 2003, p. 3). However, as the issues for decision-making become increasingly complex, and societies increasingly diverse, the idea of citizen participation in decision-making is ever more accepted. There is now a significant body of political theory arguing for a more participatory model of democracy (participatory democracy), a model that strives to create opportunities for all members of a society to contribute meaningfully to decisions about the matters affecting their lives.

The operating schedule for battery energy storage companies in electricity market

This paper presents a series of operating schedules for Battery Energy Storage Companies (BESC) to provide peak shaving and spinning reserve services in the electricity markets under increasing wind penetration. As individual market participants, BESC can bid in ancillary services markets in an Independent System Operator (ISO) and contribute towards frequency and voltage support in the grid. Recent development in batteries technologies and availability of the day-ahead spot market prices would make BESC economically feasible. Profit maximization of BESC is achieved by determining the optimum capacity of Energy Storage Systems (ESS) required for meeting spinning reserve requirements as well as peak shaving. Historic spot market prices and frequency deviations from Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO) are used for numerical simulations and the economic benefits of BESC is considered reflecting various aspects in Australia’s National Electricity Markets (NEM).

Use and usefulnss of PDSs in the financial planning context

Following considerable criticism of the complexity and lack of readability of product disclosure statements (PDSs), regulatory changes were introduced requiring shorter PDSs for certain investment products. This paper reports the findings of an online survey of financial planners regarding use of managed investment scheme (MIS) PDSs with clients, the perceived usefulness of PDSs as an information source, and their views on shorter PDSs. Our findings highlight major concerns about the usefulness of the PDS and disclosure reforms.

Footprints to pathways : reconciliation action planning in industry to sustain Indigenous employment in Queensland

This paper provides an introductory discussion to a study focusing on industry Reconciliation Action Plans (RAP) and sustaining Indigenous employment in Queensland. Indigenous people continue to experience deep and persistent disadvantage in employment, which limits their life prospects (McLachlan, Gilgillan & Gordon, 2013). A major contributing factor to this detriment is irregular employment and or unemployment. A reasonable standard of living has been found to be determined by access to economic resources such as income and wealth. Denial of this access, denies access to income streams, social status, and engagement in meaningful activities. Hence, job loss and joblessness are triggers of disadvantage (McLachlan, et al., 2013). For young Indigenous people, lack of access has lasting effects particularly if they have multiple characteristics that place them at risk of disadvantage. The project aims to develop knowledge and understanding of Industry RAPs mediate employment opportunities for Indigenous people and how young Indigenous people conceive of their employment options and the processes by which employers can best support Indigenous people. It adopts two theoretical frameworks to investigate the aim of the study : (1) Lave and Wenger’s (1991) theory of communities of practice and, (2) Sen’s (1993) capability approach which provides a structure for examining individual well-being in the context of societal inequality. This paper discusses the first research question of the study: What are Industry Reconciliation Action Plans? What is included in RAPs? Why do Industries develop RAPs? How do RAPs attract, recruit, retain, and tenure Indigenous people? The project’s significance rests with its focus on Industry, employers, policies and practices that aid the attraction and retention of Indigenous people in employment.

Optimal camera planning under versatile user constraints in multi-camera image processing systems

The selection of optimal camera configurations (camera locations, orientations, etc.) for multi-camera networks remains an unsolved problem. Previous approaches largely focus on proposing various objective functions to achieve different tasks. Most of them, however, do not generalize well to large scale networks. To tackle this, we propose a statistical framework of the problem as well as propose a trans-dimensional simulated annealing algorithm to effectively deal with it. We compare our approach with a state-of-the-art method based on binary integer programming (BIP) and show that our approach offers similar performance on small scale problems. However, we also demonstrate the capability of our approach in dealing with large scale problems and show that our approach produces better results than two alternative heuristics designed to deal with the scalability issue of BIP. Last, we show the versatility of our approach using a number of specific scenarios.

FixVegas : facilitating multi-directional communication between government officials and citizens to support urban planning in the city of Brisbane

The goal of this project was to develop a mobile application for the iOS platform, that would support the partner of this project, the Brisbane City Council, in stronger engage citizens in participating in urban planning and development projects. The resulting application is an extended version of FixVegas, a system that allows citizens to report maintenance request to the Brisbane City Council through their smartphone. The new version of the system makes all incoming requests publicly available within the application, allows users to support, comment or disapprove of these. As an addition, the concept of the idea has been introduced. Citizens can submit suggestions for improving the city to the municipality, discuss them with other fellow citizens and, ideally, also with Council representatives. The city officials as well are provided with the ability of publishing development project as an idea and let citizens deliberate it. This way, bidirectional communication between these two parties is created. A web interface complements the iPhone application. The system has been developed after the principle of User Centered Design, by assessing user needs, creating and evaluating prototypes and conducting a user study. The study showed that FixVegas2 has been perceived as an enhancement compared to the previous version, and that the idea concept has been received on a positive note. Indepth questions, such as the influence the system could have on community dynamics or the public participation in urban planning projects could only hardly investigated. However, these findings can be achieved by the alternative study designs that have been proposed.

An interactive planning and scheduling framework for optimising pits-to-crushers operations

In this paper, an interactive planning and scheduling framework are proposed for optimising operations from pits to crushers in ore mining industry. Series of theoretical and practical operations research techniques are investigated to improve the overall efficiency of mining systems due to the facts that mining managers need to tackle optimisation problems within different horizons and with different levels of detail. Under this framework, mine design planning,mine production sequencing and mine transportation scheduling models are integrated and interacted within a whole optimisation system. The proposed integrated framework could be used by mining industry for reducing equipment costs, improving the production efficiency and maximising the net present value.

Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

Estimating benefits of energy storage for aggregate storage applications in electricity distribution networks in Queensland

Electric Energy Storage (EES) is considered as one of the promising options for reducing the need for costly upgrades in distribution networks in Queensland (QLD). However, It is expected, the full potential for storage for distribution upgrade deferral cannot be fully realized due to high cost of EES. On the other hand, EES used for distribution deferral application can support a variety of complementary storage applications such as energy price arbitrage, time of use (TOU) energy cost reduction, wholesale electricity market ancillary services, and transmission upgrade deferral. Aggregation of benefits of these complementary storage applications would have the potential for increasing the amount of EES that may be financially attractive to defer distribution network augmentation in QLD. In this context, this paper analyzes distribution upgrade deferral, energy price arbitrage, TOU energy cost reduction, and integrated solar PV-storage benefits of EES devices in QLD.

Doing adaptation differently? Does neoliberalism influence adaptation planning in Queensland?

Australian cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Adapting to climate change is a critical task for contemporary spatial planning, one that is widely recognised by the planning profession and beginning to receive substantive attention in planning policy. However adaptation takes place within the context of established spatial governance regimes and planning cultures, and examples of effective adaptation are often grounded in progressive contexts markedly different than Australia. In Australia, planning is subject to strong neoliberal reform agendas (Gleeson & Low, 2000a, 2000b) and national adaptation policies align with neoliberal views (Granberg & Glover, 2011). Planning in Queensland has been subject to deregulation (Buxton et al., 2012) and the continued influence of neoliberalism (Wright & Cleary, 2012). The influence of neoliberalism on climate change adaptation has received little consideration in research and literature. This paper reviews a case study of adaptation planning through the lens of the recent and contemporary influences of neoliberalism. It examines spatial/land-use planning for climate change adaptation in Queensland, identifying the underlying rationales, priorities and strategies. A justification for such an investigation is advanced based on the challenges to planning facilitating adaptation and identified links to neoliberalism. A preliminary analysis of interviews with planners is then used to identify and discuss the ideological influences practitioners perceive in current approaches to adaptation in Queensland and the implications of such.

Motion planning and stochastic control with experimental validation on a planetary rover

Motion planning for planetary rovers must consider control uncertainty in order to maintain the safety of the platform during navigation. Modelling such control uncertainty is difficult due to the complex interaction between the platform and its environment. In this paper, we propose a motion planning approach whereby the outcome of control actions is learned from experience and represented statistically using a Gaussian process regression model. This model is used to construct a control policy for navigation to a goal region in a terrain map built using an on-board RGB-D camera. The terrain includes flat ground, small rocks, and non-traversable rocks. We report the results of 200 simulated and 35 experimental trials that validate the approach and demonstrate the value of considering control uncertainty in maintaining platform safety.