Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Groundwater table response to sea level rise and its impact on pavement structure

It has been predicted that sea level will rise about 0.8 m by 2100. Consequently, seawater can intrude into the coastal aquifers and change the level of groundwater table. A raise in groundwater table due to seawater intrusion threats the coastal infrastructure such as road pavements. The mechanical properties of subgrade materials will change due to elevated rise of groundwater table, leading to pavement weakening and decreasing the subgrade strength and stiffness. This paper presents an assessment of the vulnerability of subgrade in coastal areas to change in groundwater table due to sea-level rise. A simple bathtub approach is applied for estimating the groundwater level changes according to sea-level rise. Then the effect of groundwater level changes on the soil water content (SWC) of a single column of fine-sand soil is simulated using MIKE SHE. The impact of an increase in moisture content on subgrade strength/stiffness is assessed for a number of scenarios.

Team change climate : a group-level analysis of the relationships among change information and change participation, role stressors, and well-being

We explored whether teams develop shared perceptions regarding the quantity and quality of information and the extent of participation in decision making provided in an environment of continuous change. In addition, we examined whether change climate strength moderated relationships between change climate level and team outcomes. We examined relationships among aggregated change information and change participation and aggregated team outcomes, including two role stressors (i.e., role ambiguity and role overload) and two indicators of well-being (i.e., quality of worklife and distress). Questionnaires were distributed in an Australian law enforcement agency and data were used from 178 teams. Structural equation modelling analyses, controlling for a marker variable, were conducted to examine the main effects of aggregated change information and aggregated change participation on aggregated team outcomes. Results provided support for a model that included method effects due to a marker variable. In this model, change information climate was significantly negatively associated with role ambiguity, role overload, and distress, and significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change participation climate was significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change climate strength did not moderate relationships among change climate level and team outcomes.

The relevance of shared experiences : a multi-level study of collective efficacy as a moderator of job control in the stressor-strain relationship

Karasek's Job Demand-Control model proposes that control mitigates the positive effects of work stressors on employee strain. Evidence to date remains mixed and, although a number of individual-level moderators have been examined, the role of broader, contextual, group factors has been largely overlooked. In this study, the extent to which control buffered or exacerbated the effects of demands on strain at the individual level was hypothesized to be influenced by perceptions of collective efficacy at the group level. Data from 544 employees in Australian organizations, nested within 23 workgroups, revealed significant three-way cross-level interactions among demands, control and collective efficacy on anxiety and job satisfaction. When the group perceived high levels of collective efficacy, high control buffered the negative consequences of high demands on anxiety and satisfaction. Conversely, when the group perceived low levels of collective efficacy, high control exacerbated the negative consequences of high demands on anxiety, but not satisfaction. In addition, a stress-exacerbating effect for high demands on anxiety and satisfaction was found when there was a mismatch between collective efficacy and control (i.e. combined high collective efficacy and low control). These results provide support for the notion that the stressor-strain relationship is moderated by both individual- and group-level factors.

Self-labelling versus behavioural experience of workplace bullying : differences in sector- and industry-level prevalence and sources

This study reports on differences in self-labelling versus the behavioural experience of workplace bullying across sectors and industries for a sample of 6,406 Australian employees, as well as differences in source of workplace bullying. It was found that overall prevalence rates of workplace bullying were 2.9% (self-labelling method) and 4.0% (behavioural experience method). Exposure to workplace bullying was found to decrease with age. There was no significant difference between the public and private sectors, or among industries, in the prevalence of workplace bullying; however, two industries (Construction; Health and Community Services) showed a significantly higher rate of workplace bullying with the behavioural experience method compared to the self-labelling method. For the overall sample, the most prevalent source of workplace bullying was reported to be coworkers (49.1%), followed by clients (35.7%), and then supervisors (27.4%). Subordinates were rated as the source in 7.9% of cases. Closer examination of source as a function of sector and industry revealed a number of significant differences specific to sectors and industries, highlighting the need for tailored approaches for managing workplace bullying.

National and state-level politics on social media : Twitter, Australian political discussions, and the online commentariat

This paper examines the use of Twitter for long-term discussions around Australian politics, at national and state levels, tracking two hashtags during 2012: #auspol, denoting national political topics, and #wapol, which provides a case study of state politics (representing Western Australia). The long-term data collection provides the opportunity to analyse how the Twitter audience responds to Australian politics: which themes attract the most attention and which accounts act as focal points for these discussions. The paper highlights differences in the coverage of state and national politics. For #auspol, a small number of accounts are responsible for the majority of tweets, with politicians invoked but not directly contributing to the discussion. In contrast, #wapol stimulates a much lower level of tweeting. This example also demonstrates that, in addition to citizen accounts, traditional participants within political debate, such as politicians and journalists, are among the active contributors to state-oriented discussions on Twitter.

Smart resource control in distribution network to improve the integration level of PV

This project was an innovative approach in developing smart coordination of available energy resources to improve the integration level of PV in distribution network. Voltage and loading issues are considered as the main concerns for future electricity grid which need to be avoided using such resources. A distributed control structure was proposed for the resources in distribution network to avoid noted power quality issues.

Diode-clamped three-level inverter-based battery/supercapacitor direct integration scheme for renewable energy systems

This paper describes a diode-clamped three-level inverter-based battery/supercapacitor direct integration scheme for renewable energy systems. The study is carried out for three different cases. In the first case, one of the two dc-link capacitors of the inverter is replaced by a battery bank and the other by a supercapacitor bank. In the second case, dc-link capacitors are replaced by two battery banks. In the third case, ordinary dc-link capacitors are replaced by two supercapacitor banks. The first system is supposed to mitigate both long-term and short-term power fluctuations while the last two systems are intended for smoothening long-term and short-term power fluctuations, respectively. These topologies eliminate the need for interfacing dc-dc converters and thus considerably improve the overall system efficiency. The major issue in aforementioned systems is the unavoidable imbalance in dc-link voltages. An analysis on the effects of unbalance and a space vector modulation method, which can produce undistorted current even in the presence of such unbalances, are presented in this paper. Furthermore, small vector selection-based power sharing and state of charge balancing techniques are proposed. Experimental results, obtained from a laboratory prototype, are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed modulation and control techniques.

Five-level Z-source diode-clamped inverter

This study proposes a five-level Z-source diode-clamped inverter designed with two intermediate Z-source networks connected between the dc input sources and rear-end inverter circuitry. By partially shorting the Z-source networks, new operating states not previously reported for two-level Z-source inverter are introduced here for operating the proposed inverter with voltage buck-boost energy conversion ability and five-level phase voltage switching. These characteristic features are in fact always ensured at the inverter terminal output by simply adopting a properly designed carrier modulation scheme, which always inserts two partial shoot-through states per half carrier cycle for smooth balanced operation. Theoretical findings and practical issues identified are eventually verified by constructing a scaled down laboratory prototype for testing.

Five-level current-source inverters with buck-boost and inductive-current balancing capabilities

This paper presents new five-level current-source inverters (CSIs) with voltage/current buck-boost capability, unlike existing five-level CSIs where only voltage-boost operation is supported. The proposed inverters attain self-inductive-current-balancing per switching cycle at their dc front ends without having to include additional balancing hardware or complex control manipulation. The inverters can conveniently be controlled by using the well-established phase-shifted carrier modulation scheme with only two additional linear references and a mapping logic table needed. Existing modulators can therefore be conveniently retrofitted for controlling the presented inverters. By appropriately coordinating the inverter gating signals, their implementations can be realized by using the least number of components without degrading performance. These enhanced features of the inverters have already been verified in simulation and experimentally using a scaled-down laboratory platform.

High level of MT-MMP expression is associated with invasiveness of cervical cancer cells

MMP-2 (gelatinase A) has been associated with the invasive potential of many cancer cells both in vitro and in vivo. It is now becoming clear that the activation of this enzyme might be a key step in tumor invasion. This activation process has been shown to be a membrane-associated pathway inducible by various agents such as collagen type I, concanavalin A or TGF-β, but its physiological regulation is still largely unresolved. MT-MMP was recently discovered and described as a potential gelatinase-A activator. In the present study, we investigated the expression of MT-MMP (membrane-type metalloproteinase) in cervical cancer cells both in vitro and in vivo. Comparing several in vitro-transformed cervical cell lines, previously shown to display different invasive potentials, our results showed that the ability of cells to overexpress MT-MMP mRNA following ConA induction correlated with their ability to activate gelatinase A and with a highly invasive behavior. Moreover, using immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization, we found a higher level of MT-MMP expression in invasive cervical carcinoma and lymphnode metastases compared to its expression in non-invasive CIN III lesions. Our in vivo observations also clearly demonstrated a cooperation between stromal and tumor cells for the production of MT-MMP. Taken together, our results clearly correlated high level MT-MMP expression with invasiveness, and thus suggested that MT-MMP might play a crucial role in cervical tumor invasion.

Low-cost railway level crossings - breaking down the barriers

Level crossing risk continues to be a significant safety concern for the security of rail operations around the world. Over the last decade or so, a third of railway related fatalities occurred as a direct result of collisions between road and rail vehicles in Australia. Importantly, nearly half of these collisions occurred at railway level crossings with no active protection, such as flashing lights or boom barriers. Current practice is to upgrade level crossings that have no active protection. However, the total number of level crossings found across Australia exceed 23,500, and targeting the proportion of these that are considered high risk (e.g. public crossings with passive controls) would cost in excess of AU$3.25 billion based on equipment, installation and commissioning costs of warning devices that are currently type approved. Level crossing warning devices that are low-cost provide a potentially effective control for reducing risk; however, over the last decade, there have been significant barriers and legal issues in both Australia and the US that have foreshadowed their adoption. These devices are designed to have significantly lower lifecycle costs compared with traditional warning devices. They often make use of use of alternative technologies for train detection, wireless connectivity and solar energy supply. This paper describes the barriers that have been encountered for the adoption of these devices in Australia, including the challenges associated with: (1) determining requisite safety levels for such devices; (2) legal issues relating to duty of care obligations of railway operators; and (3) issues of Tort liability around the use of less than fail-safe equipment. This paper provides an overview of a comprehensive safety justification that was developed as part of a project funded by a collaborative rail research initiative established by the Australian government, and describes the conceptual framework and processes being used to justify its adoption. The paper provides a summary of key points from peer review and discusses prospective barriers that may need to be overcome for future adoption. A successful outcome from this process would result in the development of a guideline for decision-making, providing a precedence for adopting low-cost level crossing warning devices in other parts of the world. The framework described in this paper also provides relevance to the review and adoption of analogous technologies in rail and other safety critical industries.

In-vehicle railway level crossing warning systems : can intelligent transport systems deliver?

Intelligent Transport System (ITS) technology is seen as a cost-effective way to increase the conspicuity of approaching trains and the effectiveness of train warnings at level crossings by providing an in-vehicle warning of an approaching train. The technology is often seen as a potential low-cost alternative to upgrading passive level crossings with traditional active warning systems (flashing lights and boom barriers). ITS platforms provide sensor, localization and dedicated short-range communication (DSRC) technologies to support cooperative applications such as collision avoidance for road vehicles. In recent years, in-vehicle warning systems based on ITS technology have been trialed at numerous locations around Australia, at level crossing sites with active and passive controls. While significant research has been conducted on the benefits of the technology in nominal operating modes, little research has focused on the effects of the failure modes, the human factors implications of unreliable warnings and the technology adoption process from the railway industry’s perspective. Many ITS technology suppliers originate from the road industry and often have limited awareness of the safety assurance requirements, operational requirements and legal obligations of railway operators. This paper aims to raise awareness of these issues and start a discussion on how such technology could be adopted. This paper will describe several ITS implementation cenarios and discuss failure modes, human factors considerations and the impact these scenarios are likely to have in terms of safety, railway safety assurance requirements and the practicability of meeting these requirements. The paper will identify the key obstacles impeding the adoption of ITS systems for the different implementation scenarios and a possible path forward towards the adoption of ITS technology.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.