Local Trigonometric Methods for Time Series Smoothing.

The thesis is concerned with local trigonometric regression methods. The aim was to develop a method for extraction of cyclical components in time series. The main results of the thesis are the following. First, a generalization of the filter proposed by Christiano and Fitzgerald is furnished for the smoothing of ARIMA(p,d,q) process. Second, a local trigonometric filter is built, with its statistical properties. Third, they are discussed the convergence properties of trigonometric estimators, and the problem of choosing the order of the model. A large scale simulation experiment has been designed in order to assess the performance of the proposed models and methods. The results show that local trigonometric regression may be a useful tool for periodic time series analysis.

Minimalinvasive Osteosynthese der distalen extraartikulären Radiusfraktur : XSCREW und DorsalNailPlate im biomechanischen Vergleich

Gegenstand der Arbeit: Die distale Radiusfraktur ist der häufigste Bruch des Menschen. Neben etablierten Verfahren wie der dorsalen und palmaren Plattenosteosynthese gibt es seit Kurzem neuartige minimalinvasive Osteosynthesesysteme. Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Untersuchung der biomechanischen Stabilität von zwei neuartigen Implantaten für die distale extraartikuläre Radiusfraktur. rnMethodik: Es handelt sich einerseits um das System XSCREW (Zimmer, Freiburg i. Br., Deutschland), eine kanülierte Schraube, die über den Processus styloideus eingeführt wird und mit bis zu neun Bohrdrähten im Knochen fixiert werden kann. Das Vergleichsimplantat DorsalNailPlate (HandInnovations, Miami, Florida, USA) ist ein Hybrid aus einer dorsalen Platte und einem Marknagel. Beide Systeme wurden an 8 paarigen frischen unfixierten Leichenradii unter Axialbelastung bis 100 N und Torsionsbelastung bis 1,5 Nm getestet. Die A3-Fraktur wurde durch eine standardisierte Keilosteotomie simuliert. Das Biomaterial wurde prä- und postinterventionell sowie nach einem Dauerbelastungstest unter 1000 Zyklen in Rotation mit 0,5 Hz untersucht. Ein Versagenstest mit steigendem Drehmoment beendete das Experiment. rnErgebnisse: Die XSCREW erreichte eine Axialsteifigkeit von 136 N/mm und eine Torsionssteifigkeit von 0,16 Nm/°. Die DNP erzielte hingegen axial 70 N/mm und torsional 0,06 Nm/°. Der Unterschied zwischen beiden Verfahren war nur für die Torsion eindeutig statistisch auffällig (p=0,012), jedoch nicht für die Axialsteifigkeit (p=0,054). Die ursprüngliche Axial- und Torsionssteifigkeit wurde durch die XSCREW signifikant besser wiederhergestellt als durch die DNP (p=0,012). Beide Verfahren erzielten nach der Intervention signifikant niedrigere Steifigkeiten als die intakten Knochen (p=0,012). Ein Präparat der DNP-Gruppe und vier Präparate der XSCREW-Gruppe überstanden den Dauerbelastungstest. Das Drehmoment bei Versagen war mit der XSCREW höher als mit der DNP, der Unterschied zwischen den Verfahren war signifikant (p=0,043). Die Schwachstellen beider Systeme lagen vorwiegend in der proximalen Verankerung im Knochen. Kirschner-Drähte bzw. Verriegelungsschrauben führten unter andauernder Belastung zu einer Spaltung der Kortikalis im Schaftbereich. Bedingt durch die Ausrichtung der distalen Verriegelungen können mit beiden Implantaten Schäden an der radiocarpalen bzw. radioulnaren Gelenkfläche entstehen. rnZusammenfassung: Die XSCREW ermöglicht insgesamt eine höhere mechanische Stabilität als die DNP. Beide Verfahren sind jedoch einer winkelstabilen palmaren Plattenosteosynthese insbesondere unter rotatorischer Dauerbelastung unterlegen und erreichen nicht die Stabilität eines anderen neuartigen minimalinvasiven Systems.

Influence of fluid and volume state on PaO(2) oscillations in mechanically ventilated pigs

ABSTRACT Varying pulmonary shunt fractions during the respiratory cycle cause oxygen oscillations during mechanical ventilation. In artificially damaged lungs, cyclical recruitment of atelectasis is responsible for varying shunt according to published evidence. We introduce a complimentary hypothesis that cyclically varying shunt in healthy lungs is caused by cyclical redistribution of pulmonary perfusion. Administration of crystalloid or colloid infusions would decrease oxygen oscillations if our hypothesis was right. Therefore, n = 14 mechanically ventilated healthy pigs were investigated in 2 groups: crystalloid (fluid) versus no-fluid administration. Additional volume interventions (colloid infusion, blood withdrawal) were carried out in each pig. Intra-aortal PaO(2) oscillations were recorded using fluorescence quenching technique. Phase shift of oxygen oscillations during altered inspiratory to expiratory (I:E) ventilation ratio and electrical impedance tomography (EIT) served as control methods to exclude that recruitment of atelectasis is responsible for oxygen oscillations. In hypovolemia relevant oxygen oscillations could be recorded. Fluid and volume state changed PaO(2) oscillations according to our hypothesis. Fluid administration led to a mean decline of 105.3 mmHg of the PaO(2) oscillations amplitude (P < 0.001). The difference of the amplitudes between colloid administration and blood withdrawal was 62.4 mmHg in pigs not having received fluids (P = 0.0059). Fluid and volume state also changed the oscillation phase during altered I:E ratio. EIT excluded changes of regional ventilation (i.e., recruitment of atelectasis) to be responsible for these oscillations. In healthy pigs, cyclical redistribution of pulmonary perfusion can explain the size of respiratory-dependent PaO(2) oscillations.

The Role of Monetary Policy in Pursuing Economic Activity in Selected Transition Countries

The process of transition has brought an urgent need to develop many new market-oriented institutions or in some cases to reconstruct existing ones. One of the most important institutions of western-type economies is a central bank. It fulfils several "public good" functions, the most important of which are the achievement of stable price levels and assuring the financial stability of the economy. Nevertheless, even in economies with a long-standing market tradition, the question of whether a central bank is able to stimulate economic activity or whether all its cyclical actions lead only to changes in price levels remains open. The main purpose of this analysis was to empirically prove or disprove the relation between monetary policy and economic activity in more advanced transition countries. Basing his findings on commonly used econometric methods (causality tests, VAR modelling and simulations, simultaneous equations models), Delakorda concludes that the relation between money and economic activity is a mutual one, as there are significant differences between different countries in the conduct of monetary policy and in the environment of central banks. It is the latter which determines the relation between money and economic activity.

Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Quantification of atelectatic lung volumes in two different porcine models of ARDS

BACKGROUND: Cyclic recruitment during mechanical ventilation contributes to ventilator associated lung injury. Two different pathomechanisms in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are currently discussed: alveolar collapse vs persistent flooding of small airways and alveoli. We compare two different ARDS animal models by computed tomography (CT) to describe different recruitment and derecruitment mechanisms at different airway pressures: (i) lavage-ARDS, favouring alveolar collapse by surfactant depletion; and (ii) oleic acid ARDS, favouring alveolar flooding by capillary leakage. METHODS: In 12 pigs [25 (1) kg], ARDS was randomly induced, either by saline lung lavage or oleic acid (OA) injection, and 3 animals served as controls. A respiratory breathhold manoeuvre without spontaneous breathing at different continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was applied in random order (CPAP levels of 5, 10, 15, 30, 35 and 50 cm H(2)O) and spiral-CT scans of the total lung were acquired at each CPAP level (slice thickness=1 mm). In each spiral-CT the volume of total lung parenchyma, tissue, gas, non-aerated, well-aerated, poorly aerated, and over-aerated lung was calculated. RESULTS: In both ARDS models non-aerated lung volume decreased significantly from CPAP 5 to CPAP 50 [oleic acid lung injury (OAI): 346.9 (80.1) to 96.4 (48.8) ml, P<0.001; lavage-ARDS: 245 17.6) to 42.7 (4.8) ml, P<0.001]. In lavage-ARDS poorly aerated lung volume decreased at higher CPAP levels [232 (45.2) at CPAP 10 to 84 (19.4) ml at CPAP 50, P<0.001] whereas in OAI poorly aerated lung volume did not vary at different airway pressures. CONCLUSIONS: In both ARDS models well-aerated and non-aerated lung volume respond to different CPAP levels in a comparable fashion: Thus, a cyclical alveolar collapse seems to be part of the derecruitment process also in the OA-ARDS. In OA-ARDS, the increase in poorly aerated lung volume reflects the specific initial lesion, that is capillary leakage with interstitial and alveolar oedema.

Maintenance of end-expiratory recruitment with increased respiratory rate after saline-lavage lung injury

Cyclical recruitment of atelectasis with each breath is thought to contribute to ventilator-associated lung injury. Extrinsic positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEPe) can maintain alveolar recruitment at end exhalation, but PEEPe depresses cardiac output and increases overdistension. Short exhalation times can also maintain end-expiratory recruitment, but if the mechanism of this recruitment is generation of intrinsic PEEP (PEEPi), there would be little advantage compared with PEEPe. In seven New Zealand White rabbits, we compared recruitment from increased respiratory rate (RR) to recruitment from increased PEEPe after saline lavage. Rabbits were ventilated in pressure control mode with a fraction of inspired O(2) (Fi(O(2))) of 1.0, inspiratory-to-expiratory ratio of 2:1, and plateau pressure of 28 cmH(2)O, and either 1) high RR (24) and low PEEPe (3.5) or 2) low RR (7) and high PEEPe (14). We assessed cyclical lung recruitment with a fast arterial Po(2) probe, and we assessed average recruitment with blood gas data. We measured PEEPi, cardiac output, and mixed venous saturation at each ventilator setting. Recruitment achieved by increased RR and short exhalation time was nearly equivalent to recruitment achieved by increased PEEPe. The short exhalation time at increased RR, however, did not generate PEEPi. Cardiac output was increased on average 13% in the high RR group compared with the high PEEPe group (P < 0.001), and mixed venous saturation was consistently greater in the high RR group (P < 0.001). Prevention of end-expiratory derecruitment without increased end-expiratory pressure suggests that another mechanism, distinct from intrinsic PEEP, plays a role in the dynamic behavior of atelectasis.

Glucocorticosteroid-induced spinal osteoporosis: scientific update on pathophysiology and treatment

Glucocorticosteroid-induced spinal osteoporosis (GIOP) is the most frequent of all secondary types of osteoporosis. The understanding of the pathophysiology of glucocorticoid (GC) induced bone loss is of crucial importance for appropriate treatment and prevention of debilitating fractures that occur predominantly in the spine. GIOP results from depressed bone formation due to lower activity and higher death rate of osteoblasts on the one hand, and from increase bone resorption due to prolonged lifespan of osteoclasts on the other. In addition, calcium/phosphate metabolism may be disturbed through GC effects on gut, kidney, parathyroid glands and gonads. Therefore, therapeutic agents aim at restoring balanced bone cell activity by directly decreasing apoptosis rate of osteoblasts (e.g., cyclical parathyroid hormone) or by increasing apoptosis rate of osteoclasts (e.g., bisphosphonates). Other therapeutical efforts aim at maintaining/restoring calcium/phosphate homeostasis: improving intestinal calcium absorption (using calcium supplementation, vitamin D and derivates) and avoiding increased urinary calcium loss (using thiazides) prevent or counteract a secondary hyperparthyroidism. Bisphosphonates, particularly the aminobisphosphonates risedronate and alendronate, have been shown to protect patients on GCs from (further) bone loss to reduce vertebral fracture risk. Calcitonin may be of interest in situation where bisphosphonates are contraindicated or not applicable and in cases where acute pain due to vertebral fracture has to be manage. The intermittent administration of 1-34-parathormone may be an appealing treatment alternative, based on its documented anabolic effects on bone resulting from the reduction of osteoblastic apoptosis. Calcium and vitamin D should be a systematic adjunctive measure to any drug treatment for GIOP. Based on currently available evidence, fluoride, androgens, estrogens (opposed or unopposed) cannot be recommended for the prevention and treatment of GIOP. However, substitution of gonadal hormones may be indicated if GC-induced hypogonadism is present and leads to clinical symptoms. Data using the SERM raloxifene to treat or prevent GIOP are lacking, as are data using the promising bone anabolic agent strontium ranelate. Kyphoplasty performed in appropriately selected osteoporotic patients with painful vertebral fractures is a promising addition to current medical treatment.

EPA's Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling : a case study of science policy implementation

As environmental problems became more complex, policy and regulatory decisions become far more difficult to make. The use of science has become an important practice in the decision making process of many federal agencies. Many different types of scientific information are used to make decisions within the EPA, with computer models becoming especially important. Environmental models are used throughout the EPA in a variety of contexts and their predictive capacity has become highly valued in decision making. The main focus of this research is to examine the EPA’s Council for Regulatory Modeling (CREM) as a case study in addressing science issues, particularly models, in government agencies. Specifically, the goal was to answer the following questions: What is the history of the CREM and how can this information shed light on the process of science policy implementation? What were the goals of implementing the CREM? Were these goals reached and how have they changed? What have been the impediments that the CREM has faced and why did these impediments occur? The three main sources of information for this research came from observations during summer employment with the CREM, document review and supplemental interviews with CREM participants and other members of the modeling community. Examining a history of modeling at the EPA, as well as a history of the CREM, provides insight into the many challenges that are faced when implementing science policy and science policy programs. After examining the many impediments that the CREM has faced in implementing modeling policies, it was clear that the impediments fall into two separate categories, classic and paradoxical. The classic impediments include the more standard impediments to science policy implementation that might be found in any regulatory environment, such as lack of resources and changes in administration. Paradoxical impediments are cyclical in nature, with no clear solution, such as balancing top-down versus bottom-up initiatives and coping with differing perceptions. These impediments, when not properly addressed, severely hinder the ability for organizations to successfully implement science policy.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

Targeting vessels to treat hepatocellular carcinoma

The process of blood vessel proliferation, known as angiogenesis, is essential during embryonic development and organogenesis. In adult life, it participates in normal tissue repair, wound healing, and cyclical growth of the corpus luteum and the endometrium. Crucial as it is, angiogenesis can become pathological, and abnormal angiogenesis contributes to the pathogenesis of inflammatory and neoplasic diseases. The present review highlights the evidence for the role of angiogenesis in HCC (hepatocellular carcinoma) and discusses the increasing importance of inhibitors of angiogenesis in HCC therapy.

Medical treatment of vertebral osteoporosis

Although osteoporosis is a systemic disease, vertebral fractures due to spinal bone loss are a frequent, sometimes early and often neglected complication of the disease, generally associated with considerable disability and pain. As osteoporotic vertebral fractures are an important predictor of future fracture risk, including at the hip, medical management is targeted at reducing fracture risk. A literature search for randomized, double-blind, prospective, controlled clinical studies addressing medical treatment possibilities of vertebral fractures in postmenopausal Caucasian women was performed on the leading medical databases. For each publication, the number of patients with at least one new vertebral fracture and the number of randomized patients by treatment arm was retrieved. The relative risk (RR) and the number needed to treat (NNT, i.e. the number of patients to be treated to avoid one radiological vertebral fracture over the duration of the study), together with the respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated for each study. Treatment of steroid-induced osteoporosis and treatment of osteoporosis in men were reviewed separately, based on the low number of publications available. Forty-five publications matched with the search criteria, allowing for analysis of 15 different substances tested regarding their anti-fracture efficacy at the vertebral level. Bisphosphonates, mainly alendronate and risedronate, were reported to have consistently reduced the risk of a vertebral fracture over up to 50 months of treatment in four (alendronate) and two (risedronate) publications. Raloxifene reduced vertebral fracture risk in one study over 36 months, which was confirmed by 48 months' follow-up data. Parathormone (PTH) showed a drastic reduction in vertebral fracture risk in early studies, while calcitonin may also be a treatment option to reduce fracture risk. For other substances published data are conflicting (calcitriol, fluoride) or insufficient to conclude about efficacy (calcium, clodronate, etidronate, hormone replacement therapy, pamidronate, strontium, tiludronate, vitamin D). The low NNTs for the leading substances (ranges: 15-64 for alendronate, 8-26 for risedronate, 23 for calcitonin and 28-31 for raloxifene) confirm that effective and efficient drug interventions for treatment and prevention of osteoporotic vertebral fractures are available. Bisphosphonates have demonstrated similar efficacy in treatment and prevention of steroid-induced and male osteoporosis as in postmenopausal osteoporosis. The selection of the appropriate drug for treatment of vertebral osteoporosis from among a bisphosphonate (alendronate or risedronate), PTH, calcitonin or raloxifene will mainly depend on the efficacy, tolerability and safety profile, together with the patient's willingness to comply with a long-term treatment. Although reduction of vertebral fracture risk is an important criterion for decision making, drugs with proven additional fracture risk reduction at all clinically relevant sites (especially at the hip) should be the preferred options.

Considering the Consequences of Child Welfare Service Decisions

The following commentary serves as a response to the article, “That Wall is Around My Heart,” underscoring the importance of decision making in child welfare services. The commentary supports the need for child welfare systems to carefully consider the long-term consequences of various service intervention strategies. Child welfare systems must attend to both the internal external elements of safety, giving special attention to the emotional trauma of child maltreatment and the trauma resulting from removal and placement in alternative care. The commentary supports the need for child welfare systems to provide effective interventions that prevent and respond to child abuse and neglect, as well as break the cyclical nature of child maltreatment, helping ensure the safety of children and families for future generations.

The Emergence of Partnership Networks in the Enterprise Application Development Industry - A Global Corporation Perspective

Currently, dramatic changes are happening in the IS development industry. The incumbent system developers (hubs) are embracing partnerships with less well established companies (spokes), acting in specific niches. This paper seeks to establish a better understanding of the motives for this strategy. Relying on existing work on strategic alliance formation, it is argued that partnering is particularly attractive, if these small companies possess certain capabilities that are difficult to obtain through other arrangements than partnering. Again drawing on the literature, three categories of capabilities are identified: the capability to innovate within their niche, the capability to provide a specific functionality that can be integrated with the incumbents’ systems, and the capability to address novel markets. These factors are analyzed through a case study. The case represents a market leader in the global IS development industry, which fosters a network of smaller partner firms. The study reveals that temporal dynamics between the identified factors are playing a dominant role in these networks. A cyclical partnership model is developed that attempts to explain the life cycle of a partnership within such a network.

Cardiopulmonary performance testing using a robotics-assisted tilt table: Feasibility assessment in able-bodied subjects

BACKGROUND: Robotics-assisted tilt table technology was introduced for early rehabilitation of neurological patients. It provides cyclical stepping movement and physiological loading of the legs. The aim of the present study was to assess the feasibility of this type of device for peak cardiopulmonary performance testing using able-bodied subjects. METHODS: A robotics-assisted tilt table was augmented with force sensors in the thigh cuffs and a work rate estimation algorithm. A custom visual feedback system was employed to guide the subjects' work rate and to provide real time feedback of actual work rate. Feasibility assessment focused on: (i) implementation (technical feasibility), and (ii) responsiveness (was there a measurable, high-level cardiopulmonary reaction?). For responsiveness testing, each subject carried out an incremental exercise test to the limit of functional capacity with a work rate increment of 5 W/min in female subjects and 8 W/min in males. RESULTS: 11 able-bodied subjects were included (9 male, 2 female; age 29.6 ± 7.1 years: mean ± SD). Resting oxygen uptake (O_{2}) was 4.6 ± 0.7 mL/min/kg and O_{2}peak was 32.4 ± 5.1 mL/min/kg; this mean O_{2}peak was 81.1% of the predicted peak value for cycle ergometry. Peak heart rate (HRpeak) was 177.5 ± 9.7 beats/min; all subjects reached at least 85% of their predicted HRpeak value. Respiratory exchange ratio (RER) at O_{2}peak was 1.02 ± 0.07. Peak work rate) was 61.3 ± 15.1 W. All subjects reported a Borg CR10 value for exertion and leg fatigue of 7 or more. CONCLUSIONS: The robotics-assisted tilt table is deemed feasible for peak cardiopulmonary performance testing: the approach was found to be technically implementable and substantial cardiopulmonary responses were observed. Further testing in neurologically-impaired subjects is warranted.