Growth, selection and appropriate contracts

We study a dynamic model where growth requires both long-term investmentand the selection of talented managers. When ability is not ex-ante observable and contracts are incomplete, managerial selection imposes a cost, as managers facing the risk ofbeing replaced choose a sub-optimally low level of long-term investment. This generates atrade-off between selection and investment that has implications for the choice of contractualrelationships and institutions. Our analysis shows that rigid long-term contracts sacrificingmanagerial selection may prevail at early stages of economic development and when heterogeneity in ability is low. As the economy grows, however, knowledge accumulation increasesthe return to talent and makes it optimal to adopt flexible contractual relationships, wheremanagerial selection is implemented even at the cost of lower investment. Measures of investor protection aimed at limiting the bargaining power of managers improve selection undershort-term contract. Given that knowledge accumulation raises the value of selection, theoptimal level of investor protection increases with development.

La importància de les accions a pilota aturada en el futbol professional

L’objectiu del present estudi va consistir en estudiar el percentatge de gols a pilota aturada de la Lliga BBVA i la Premier League, establint el percentatge d’efectivitat de cadascuna d’elles. A més, es volia analitzar la freqüència de les diferents tipus d’accions a pilota aturada i substituir el terme estratègia per accions a pilota aturada. Amb aquest objectiu es van analitzar 80 partits disputats per equips de futbol professional en la temporada 2012-13 de la Lliga BBVA i la Premier League mitjançant l’anàlisi de vídeos. Les variable dependent era la consecució o no del gol, tenint com a variables independents 4 tipus d’accions a pilota aturada: tirs lliures directes, tirs lliures indirectes, córners i penals. Els resultats indiquen un major número de gols provinents d’accions a pilota aturada en la Lliga BBVA que en la Premier League, 29,8% per un 23,4% respectivament. Tot i això, s’ha comprovat com els percentatges d’efectivitat són pràcticament idèntics: 4,54% a la Lliga BBVA i 4,58% a la Premier League. Finalment, s’ha identificat el córner com l’acció que més es produeix en el joc, seguit de les faltes directes, els penals i les faltes indirectes.

The Effectiveness of Domestic Abuse Protective Orders and Court Practices in Sentencing Violators, July 2011

Deterring abuse is important to ensuring safety among domestic violence and assault victims. Protective orders are tools aimed at restricting contact between the victim and the abuser to prevent subsequent violence. While empirical research has indicated that protective orders are effective, the extent of the effectiveness is uncertain because violation rates have varied widely from study to study. In addition, little research exists to explain how violations of protective orders are handled, which factors are considered when giving penalties, and whether certain situations lead to a given type of penalty.

Joint Enrollment Report, 2009

The Iowa Department of Education collects information on joint enrollment in Iowa’s 15 community colleges. Jointly enrolled students are high school students enrolled in community college credit coursework. Most jointly enrolled students enroll through Senior Year Plus programs such as PSEO (Postsecondary Enrollment Options) and concurrent enrollment. Others enroll independently by paying tuition or enrolling in courses delivered through contractual agreements that do not meet the definition of concurrent enrollment. For more information about Senior Year Plus programs, please refer to the department’s website. This report consists of fiscal year and trend data on joint enrollment including headcount enrollment, credit hours, student demographics, and enrollment by program type and offering arrangement. All data included in this report is taken from the Community College Management Information System (MIS) and confirmed by each college, unless otherwise noted.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Ruin and related quantities in some advanced insurance risk models

Risk theory has been a very active research area over the last decades. The main objectives of the theory are to find adequate stochastic processes which can model the surplus of a (non-life) insurance company and to analyze the risk related quantities such as ruin time, ruin probability, expected discounted penalty function and expected discounted dividend/tax payments. The study of these ruin related quantities provides crucial information for actuaries and decision makers. This thesis consists of the study of four different insurance risk models which are essentially related. The ruin and related quantities are investigated by using different techniques, resulting in explicit or asymptotic expressions for the ruin time, the ruin probability, the expected discounted penalty function and the expected discounted tax payments. - La recherche en théorie du risque a été très dynamique au cours des dernières décennies. D'un point de vue théorique, les principaux objectifs sont de trouver des processus stochastiques adéquats permettant de modéliser le surplus d'une compagnie d'assurance non vie et d'analyser les mesures de risque, notamment le temps de ruine, la probabilité de ruine, l'espérance de la valeur actuelle de la fonction de pénalité et l'espérance de la valeur actuelle des dividendes et taxes. L'étude de ces mesures associées à la ruine fournit des informations cruciales pour les actuaires et les décideurs. Cette thèse consiste en l'étude des quatre différents modèles de risque d'assurance qui sont essentiellement liés. La ruine et les mesures qui y sont associées sont examinées à l'aide de différentes techniques, ce qui permet d'induire des expressions explicites ou asymptotiques du temps de ruine, de la probabilité de ruine, de l'espérance de la valeur actuelle de la fonction de pénalité et l'espérance de la valeur actuelle des dividendes et taxes.

FY2015 Highway Construction Program Expenditures/Obligations

This report describes the highway construction program, actual expenditures of the program and contractual obligations of the program for FY 2015.

Disparities in work, risk and health between immigrants and native-born Spaniards

We analyse the impact of working and contractual conditions, particularly exposure to job risks, on the probability of acquiring a permanent disability, controlling for other personal and firm characteristics. We postulate a model in which this impact is mediated by the choice of occupation, with a level of risk associated with it. We assume this choice is endogenous, and that it depends on preferences and opportunities in the labour market, both of which may differ between immigrants and natives. To test this hypothesis we apply a bivariate probit model to data for 2006 from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives provided by the Spanish Social Security system, containing records for over a million workers. We find that risk exposure increases the probability of permanent disability arising from any cause - by almost 5%.

La Rabassa morta i els discursos historiogràfics. Una relectura d'Emili Giralt

El 1965, Emili Giralt va escriure el treball titulat "El conflicto rabasaire y la cuestión agraria en Cataluña hasta 1936" . En els prop de quaranta anys transcorreguts, les investigacions d'història agrària i econòmica han corroborat el paper central de la vinya en el desenvolupament català i les d'història social i política han insistit en la importància de les lluites rabassaires en el primer terç del segle XX. Només per aquestes circumstancies el treball d'Emili Giralt mereixeria ser avui reconegut. Però l'article de Giralt va ser innovador i pioner en un altre aspecte que voldria remarcar aquí. Em refereixo a la seva manera d'analitzar les relacions socials agràries, concretades en aquest cas en la figura contractual de la rabassa morta. Parlant-nos d'un procés de "desnaturalització del contracte, posant en evidencia les contradiccions d'algunes sentencies, Giralt aconsegueix donar una vida especial a les escriptures notarials. Potser han calgut quaranta anys de nous estudis per adonar-nos de la frescor i la validesa de la proposta analítica de Giralt. Una manera de reivindicar-la avui és fer un salt qualitatiu important: es tracta d'integrar la recerca i el discurs d'Emili Giralt i altres autors sobre la rabassa morta en el debat historiogràfic sobre el desenvolupament econòmic espanyol

EPCM-toimitustapamallin kehittäminen Kvaerner Power Oy:n voimalaitostoimituksiin

Tämän diplomityön päämääränäoli laatia suunnitelma voimalaitoksen toimittamiseksi EPCM-toimitustavalla. Työn keskeisiksi tavoitteiksi asetettiin EPCM-toimitustapaan perustuvan toimitustapakonseptin muodostaminen, toimituksiin liittyvien terminologian selkeyttäminen ja harmonisointi sekä voimalaitoksen suhteellisen kustannusrakenteen laatiminen. Työssä tutkittiin voimalaitostoimituksissa tavanomaisesti käytettyjä sopimustyyppejä, kiinteähintaista sopimusta ja kustannusvoittolisäsopimusta sekä harvinaisemmin käytettyjä kattohinta- ja tavoitekustannussopimusta. Vallitsevat toimitustavat, EPC- ja EPCM-toimitustavat sekä monitoimittajatapa, esiteltiin ja niiden vahvuudet sekä heikkoudet selvitettiin. Projektin ominaisuuksilla, markkinoilla ja tilaajan kyvyllä, asiantuntemuksella sekä resursseilla todettiin olevan vaikutusta toimitustavan valintaan. Lisäksi tehtiin katsaus voimalaitostoimitusten kehitystrendeihin ja projektin riskienhallintaan. Voimalaitoksen laitosjärjestelmäjako kehitettiin ja sitä soveltamalla määritettiin voimalaitoksen suhteellinen kustannusrakenne. Kattilaitoksen osuus voimalaitoksen rakentamiskustannuksista todettiin merkittävimmäksi. Laitosjärjestelmien laitekustannusten havaittiin olevan korkeimmat. EPCM-toimitustapamalli kehitettiin teoriaosan pohjalta ja sen rakenne, organisaatio, sopimustyypit ja -suhteetsekä toimituksen riskien jako kuvattiin. Voimalaitoksen rakentamiskustannuksia vertailtiin eri toimitustavoilla ja EPCM-toimitustapamalli todettiin EPC-toimitustapaa edullisemmaksi.

Error en el consentimiento: swaps y preferentes

La problemàtica jurídica-social que ha sorgit aquests darrers anys amb les permutes financeres i les participacions preferents ha fet plantejar si s'ha produït un error en el consentiment contractual amb aquest tipus de productes financers. A partir del contingut del Codi Civil espanyol i la doctrina, s'han analitzat els elements essencials del contracte, així com, la legislació aplicable als instruments financers. Amb l’ ajuda de la jurisprudència s'ha pogut comprovar que en la majoria de casos portats als tribunals en relació a aquests contractes, en els quals, es demana l'anul·labilitat contractual, el fonament principal es basa en la vulneració de les entitats de crèdit dels seus deures legals . En el present treball queda palesa la importància d'enllaçar l'element contractual del consentiment amb l'obligació que tenen les entitats de crèdit d'informar els seus clients. Així, la incorrecta formació sobre la realitat contractual que els clients manifesten amb el consentiment, passa sense cap dubte per la necessitat d'obtenir tota la informació rellevant del contracte. L’obligació d’informació està estretament lligada al deure de classificar als clients, totes dues són un compromís legal que tenen les entitats en la seva funció de lleialtat empresària. Les entitats financeres deuen per tant classificar els seus clients i proporcionals la informació, amb més rigor si cap , en el cas de clients minoristes. Per tot això, veiem que en aquells casos de clients minoristes en els quals no s'ha pogut demostrar per part de les entitats de crèdit que es va proporcionar tota la informació necessària, s'ha produït un error en el consentiment. Els clients no coneixien l’autèntic abast de la vinculació ni els costos als quals s'havia obligat , no hi ha dubte que en molts dels casos d'haver conegut la realitat, no haguessin contractat.

Are we wasting our talent? Overqualification and overskilling among PhD graduates

Drawing on a very rich data set from a recent cohort of PhD graduates, we examine the correlates and consequences of qualification and skills mismatch. We show that job characteristics such as the economic sector and the main activity at work play a fundamental direct role in explaining the probability of being well matched. However, the effect of academic attributes seems to be mainly indirect, since it disappears once we control for the full set of work characteristics. We detected a significant earnings penalty for those who are both overqualified and overskilled and also showed that being mismatched reduces job satisfaction, especially for those whose skills are underutilized. Overall, the problem of mismatch among PhD graduates is closely related to demand-side constraints of the labor market. Increasing the supply of adequate jobs and broadening the skills PhD students acquire during training should be explored as possible responses.

Closed-End Fund Discount -Case: Norvestia & Neomarkka

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli määrittää, kuinka suljettuja sijoitusrahastoja tulisi arvioida, jotta voitaisiin ymmärtää, miksi suljetut sijoitusrahastot arvostetaanalennuksella suhteessa niiden substanssiarvoon. Aiemmat yritykset selittää suljettujen rahastojen substanssialennusilmiö esitettiin kirjallisuuskatsauksessa. Tutkimuksen empiirinen osio suoritettiin aineistotutkimus- ja kyselytutkimusmenetelmin hyödyntäen suomalaisia suljettuja sijoitusrahastoja Norvestia Oyj:tä ja Neomarkka Oyj:tä. Teoriaosiossa esitettiin, kuinka substanssialennus on kausaalisten tekijöiden ja markkinatunnelman funktio. Suljettu sijoitusrahasto arvostetaanyli tai alle substanssiarvonsa riippuen johdon aiheuttamien kustannusten, heikosti informoitujen sijoittajien ja rahaston ulkoisen epälikviditeetin suhteesta johdon suorituskykyyn, rahaston avaamisen mahdollisuuteen ja sisäisiin likviditeettietuihin. Suomalaiset suljetut sijoitusrahastot arvostetaan alle substanssiarvonsa mahdollisesti johdon heikon suorituskyvyn, sopimuseriarvoisuuden, heikosti informoitujen sijoittajien läsnäolon ja rahaston osakkeiden epälikviditeetin takia.

Automated formulation of optimisation models for steel beam structures

Over 70% of the total costs of an end product are consequences of decisions that are made during the design process. A search for optimal cross-sections will often have only a marginal effect on the amount of material used if the geometry of a structure is fixed and if the cross-sectional characteristics of its elements are property designed by conventional methods. In recent years, optimalgeometry has become a central area of research in the automated design of structures. It is generally accepted that no single optimisation algorithm is suitable for all engineering design problems. An appropriate algorithm, therefore, mustbe selected individually for each optimisation situation. Modelling is the mosttime consuming phase in the optimisation of steel and metal structures. In thisresearch, the goal was to develop a method and computer program, which reduces the modelling and optimisation time for structural design. The program needed anoptimisation algorithm that is suitable for various engineering design problems. Because Finite Element modelling is commonly used in the design of steel and metal structures, the interaction between a finite element tool and optimisation tool needed a practical solution. The developed method and computer programs were tested with standard optimisation tests and practical design optimisation cases. Three generations of computer programs are developed. The programs combine anoptimisation problem modelling tool and FE-modelling program using three alternate methdos. The modelling and optimisation was demonstrated in the design of a new boom construction and steel structures of flat and ridge roofs. This thesis demonstrates that the most time consuming modelling time is significantly reduced. Modelling errors are reduced and the results are more reliable. A new selection rule for the evolution algorithm, which eliminates the need for constraint weight factors is tested with optimisation cases of the steel structures that include hundreds of constraints. It is seen that the tested algorithm can be used nearly as a black box without parameter settings and penalty factors of the constraints.

Responsabilidad civil y daños a los propios bienes. Comentario a las SSTS, 1a, 29.10.2008 (RJ 2008\5801; MP: Román García Varela) y 22.12.2008 (RJ 2009\162; MP: Juan Antonio Xiol Ríos)

En 2008 y en dos ocasiones, la Sala Primera del Tribunal Supremo ha resuelto la cuestión relativa a si el propietario de una finca, la cual había contaminado como consecuencia del desarrollo de su actividad industrial y había vendido ocultando esta circunstancia, es responsable extracontractualmente frente al tercer adquirente por los daños económicos sufridos. En la primera Sentencia, de 29.10.2008, el Tribunal Supremo condena al contaminador por responsabilidad extracontractual. En la segunda, de 22.12.2008, el Tribunal Supremo absuelve a éste de la responsabilidad extracontracual porqué los daños fueron causados a una finca propia.