Reactive power planning under conditional-value-at-risk assessment using chance-constrained optimisation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

EMERGENT CONDITIONAL RELATIONS IN A GO/NO-GO PROCEDURE: FIGURE-GROUND AND STIMULUS-POSITION COMPOUND RELATIONS

Past research has demonstrated emergent conditional relations using a go/no-go procedure with pairs of figures displayed side-by-side on a computer screen. The present Study sought to extend applications Of this procedure. In Experiment, 1, we evaluated whether emergent conditional relations Could be demonstrated when two-component stimuli were displayed in figure-ground relationships-abstract figures displayed on backgrounds of different colors. Five normal)), capable adults participated. During training, each two-component stimulus Was presented successively. Responses emitted in the presence of some Stimulus pairs (A1B1, A2B2, A3B3, B1C1, B2C2 and B3C3) were reinforced, whereas responses emitted in the presence of other pairs (A1B2, A1B3, A2B1, A2B3, A3B1, A3B2, B1C2, B1C3, B2C1, B2C3, B3C1 and B3C2) were not. During tests, new configurations (AC and CA) were presented, thus emulating structurally the matching-to-sample tests employed in typical equivalence Studies. All participants showed emergent relations consistent with stimulus equivalence during testing. In Experiment 2, we systematically replicated the procedures with Stimulus compounds consisting Of four figures (A1, A2, C1 and C2) and two locations (left - B1 and right - 132). A,11 6 normally capable adults exhibited emergent stimulus-stimulus relations. Together, these experiments show that the go/no-go procedure is a potentially useful alternative for Studying emergent. conditional relations when matching-to-sample is procedurally cumbersome or impossible to use.

The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil

We examine the impact of Brazil's Bolsa Escola/Familia program on Brazilian children's education outcomes. Bolsa provides cash payments to poor households if their children (ages 6 to 15) are enrolled in school. Using school census data to compare changes in enrollment, dropping out and grade promotion across schools that adopted Bolsa at different times, we estimate that the program has: increased enrollment by about 5.5% (6.5%) in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); lowered dropout rates by 0.5 (0.4) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); and raised grade promotion rates by 0.9 (0.3) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8). About one third of Brazil's children participate in Bolsa, so assuming no spillover effects onto non-participants implies that Bolsa's impacts are three times higher than these estimates. However, simple calculations using enrollment impacts suggest that Bolsa's benefits in terms of increased wages may not exceed its costs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Method to Predict the Epidemiology of Fungal Keratitis by Monitoring the Sales Distribution of Antifungal Eye Drops in Brazil

Purpose: Fungi are a major cause of keratitis, although few medications are licensed for their treatment. The aim of this study is to observe the variation in commercialisation of antifungal eye drops, and to predict the seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil. Methods: Data from a retrospective study of antifungal eye drops sales from the only pharmaceutical ophthalmologic laboratory, authorized to dispense them in Brazil (Opthalmos) were gathered. These data were correlated with geographic and seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil between July 2002 and June 2008. Results: A total of 26,087 antifungal eye drop units were sold, with a mean of 2.3 per patient. There was significant variation in antifungal sales during the year (p < 0.01). A linear regression model displayed a significant association between reduced relative humidity and antifungal drug sales (R-2 = 0.17, p < 0.01). Conclusions: Antifungal eye drops sales suggest that there is a seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis. A possible interpretation is that the third quarter of the year (a period when the climate is drier), when agricultural activity is more intense in Brazil, suggests a correlation with a higher incidence of fungal keratitis. A similar model could be applied to other diseases, that are managed with unique, or few, and monitorable medications to predict epidemiological aspects.

Aging reduces complexity of heart rate variability assessed by conditional entropy and symbolic analysis

Increasing age is associated with a reduction in overall heart rate variability as well as changes in complexity of physiologic dynamics. The aim of this study was to verify if the alterations in autonomic modulation of heart rate caused by the aging process could be detected by Shannon entropy (SE), conditional entropy (CE) and symbolic analysis (SA). Complexity analysis was carried out in 44 healthy subjects divided into two groups: old (n = 23, 63 +/- A 3 years) and young group (n = 21, 23 +/- A 2). It was analyzed SE, CE [complexity index (CI) and normalized CI (NCI)] and SA (0V, 1V, 2LV and 2ULV patterns) during short heart period series (200 cardiac beats) derived from ECG recordings during 15 min of rest in a supine position. The sequences characterized by three heart periods with no significant variations (0V), and that with two significant unlike variations (2ULV) reflect changes in sympathetic and vagal modulation, respectively. The unpaired t test (or Mann-Whitney rank sum test when appropriate) was used in the statistical analysis. In the aging process, the distributions of patterns (SE) remain similar to young subjects. However, the regularity is significantly different; the patterns are more repetitive in the old group (a decrease of CI and NCI). The amounts of pattern types are different: 0V is increased and 2LV and 2ULV are reduced in the old group. These differences indicate marked change of autonomic regulation. The CE and SA are feasible techniques to detect alteration in autonomic control of heart rate in the old group.

Customer Evolution in Sales Channel Migration

This research has been triggered by an emergent trend in customer behavior: customers have rapidly expanded their channel experiences and preferences beyond traditional channels (such as stores) and they expect the company with which they do business to have a presence on all these channels. This evidence has produced an increasing interest in multichannel customer behavior and it has motivated several researchers to study the customers’ channel choices dynamics in multichannel environment. We study how the consumer decision process for channel choice and response to marketing communications evolves for a cohort of new customers. We assume a newly acquired customer’s decisions are described by a “trial” model, but the customer’s choice process evolves to a “post-trial” model as the customer learns his or her preferences and becomes familiar with the firm’s marketing efforts. The trial and post-trial decision processes are each described by different multinomial logit choice models, and the evolution from the trial to post-trial model is determined by a customer-level geometric distribution that captures the time it takes for the customer to make the transition. We utilize data for a major retailer who sells in three channels – retail store, the Internet, and via catalog. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods that allow for cross-customer heterogeneity. This allows us to have distinct parameters estimates for a trial and an after trial stages and to estimate the quickness of this transit at the individual level. The results show for example that the customer decision process indeed does evolve over time. Customers differ in the duration of the trial period and marketing has a different impact on channel choice in the trial and post-trial stages. Furthermore, we show that some people switch channel decision processes while others don’t and we found that several factors have an impact on the probability to switch decision process. Insights from this study can help managers tailor their marketing communication strategy as customers gain channel choice experience. Managers may also have insights on the timing of the direct marketing communications. They can predict the duration of the trial phase at individual level detecting the customers with a quick, long or even absent trial phase. They can even predict if the customer will change or not his decision process over time, and they can influence the switching process using specific marketing tools

Conditional and transgenic mouse models as tools to study the role of TGFbeta, BMP signaling in skeletal development

Die TGFbeta/BMP Signaltransduktionskaskade ist wichtig für viele Entwicklungsprozesse fast aller embryonaler sowie extraembryonaler Gewebe und sie ist ebenso essentiell bei der Aufrechterhaltung der Homöostase im adulten Organismus. In vielen Mausmodellen und Zellkulturversuchen wurde gezeigt, dass Liganden dieses Signalweges in verschiedene Stadien der Knorpel- und Knochenentwicklung involviert sind. BMPs sind beispielsweise maßgeblich an der frühen Kondensation und Bildung des Knorpels und später an Proliferation und Hypertrophie der Chondrozyten beteiligt. BMPs können ektopisch Knochenbildung auslösen und das Expressionsmuster der Liganden und spezifischen Rezeptoren in der Wachstumsfuge lässt auf eine wichtige Rolle der BMPs in der Wachstumsfuge schließen. Der gezielte knock out der BMP-Rezeptoren Bmpr1a und Bmpr1b in proliferierenden Chondrozyten führt zur Ausbildung einer generellen Chondrodysplasie. Smad1, Smad5 und Smad8 sind die Mediatoren der BMP-Signalkaskade. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit sollte die Rolle und Funktion der Smad1- und Smad5-Proteine in der Wachstumsfuge untersucht werden. Hierzu wurden konditionale Smad1-knock out-Mäuse mit einer transgenen Mauslinie gekreuzt, die die Cre-Rekombinase spezifisch in proliferierenden Chondrozyten exprimiert. Diese Mäuse wurden mit und ohne heterozygotem Smad5-Hintergrund charakterisiert. Bei einem knock out von Smad1 allein konnte ein leichte Verkürzung der Wachstumsfuge beobachtet werden, wobei prähypertrophe und hypertrophe Zone gleichermaßen betroffen waren. Dieser Phänotyp war verstärkt in Mäusen mit zusätzlichem heterozygotem Smad5-Hintergrund. Eine Verringerung der Proliferationsrate konnte zusammen mit einer verminderten Ihh-Expression nachgewiesen werden. Zusätzlich konnte anhand von Röntgenaufnahmen eine Dysorganisation der nasalen Region und ein fehlendes nasales Septum beobachtet werden. Produktion und Mineralisation der extrazellulären Matrix waren nicht beeinträchtigt. Um die Rolle der BMP- und TGFbeta-Signalkaskaden während der endochondralen Ossifikation zu vergleichen, wurden transgene Mäuse generiert, in denen die TGFbeta-Signalkaskade spezifisch in proliferierenden Chondrozyten gestört war. Zwei Mauslinien, die ähnliche Phänotypen zeigten, wurden untersucht. Esl1 ist ein TGFbeta-bindendes Protein, von dem man annimmt, dass es die TGFbeta-Signalkaskade inhibieren kann. Esl1-knock out-Mäuse sind kleiner als Wildtypmäuse und die Überexpression von Esl1 in proliferierenden Chondrozyten führt zu einer Verlängerung der Wachstumsfuge und einer verstärkten Proliferationsrate. Knorpelmarker, wie Col2a1 und Sox9 sind in diesen Mäusen herunterreguliert, während Col10a1 und Ihh als Marker für die hypertrophe und prähypertrophe Zone herunterreguliert waren. Dies führt zu der Annahme, dass mehr Zellen in die terminale Differenzierung eintreten. Bei transgenen Mäusen, in denen ein dominant-negativer (dn) TGFbeta-Rezeptor in proliferierenden Chondrozyten überexprimiert wurde, konnte eine verlängerte prähypertrophe Zone, eine erhöhte Ihh-Expression, sowie eine verstärkte Proliferationsrate beobachtet werden. Zusätzlich konnte in homozygoten Tieren ein craniofacialer Phänotyp beschrieben werden, der zu Problemen bei der Nahrungsaufnahme und damit zu einer starken Wachstumsbeeinträchtigung führte. Die BMP- und TGFbeta-Signalkaskaden haben möglicherweise antagonistische Effekte in der Wachstumsfuge. Während der Ausfall von BMP in proliferierenden Chondrozyten aufgrund einer gesunkenen Proliferationsrate zu einer Verkürzung der Wachstumsfuge führte, kann man in Mäusen mit einer Störung der TGFbeta-Signalkaskade eine verstärkte Proliferation in einer daher verlängerten Wachstumsfuge beobachten. Ein weiteres Ziel dieser Arbeit war die Generation einer transgenen Mauslinie, die die Cre-Rekombinase spezifisch in hypertrophen Chondrozyten exprimiert. Promoterstudien mit transgenen Mäusen weisen darauf hin, dass ein putatives AP1-Element, etwa 4 kb vor dem ersten Exon des Col10a1 gelegen, wichtig für die spezifische Expression in hypertrophen Chondrozyten ist. Ein Konstrukt, dass vier Kopien dieses Elements und den basalen Promoter enthält, wurde benutzt, um die Cre-Rekombinase spezifisch zu exprimieren. Diese Mauslinie befindet sich in der Testphase und erste Daten deuten auf eine spezifische Expression der Cre-Rekombinase in hypertrophen Chondrozyten hin.

Aggregazione delle query per sistemi pub/sub: il progetto SALES

I sistemi mobili rappresentano una classe di sistemi distribuiti caratterizzata dalla presenza di dispositivi portatili eterogenei quali PDA, laptop e telefoni cellulari che interagiscono tra loro mediante una rete di interconnessione wireless. Una classe di sistemi mobili di particolare interesse è costituita dai sistemi basati sul modello di interazione publish/subscribe. Secondo tale schema, i nodi all'interno di una rete possono assumere due ruoli differenti: i produttori di informazione, chiamati publisher, ed i consumatori di informazione, chiamati subscriber. Tipicamente, l'interazione tra essi è mediata da un gestore di eventi che indirizza correttamente le informazioni ricevute dai publisher verso i subscriber interessati, sulla base degli interessi espressi da questi ultimi tramite sottoscrizioni. Nella progettazione di sistemi mobili, a differenza di quelli tradizionali basati su nodi fissi, bisogna tenere conto di problemi quali la scarsa capacità computazionale dei dispositivi e la limitata larghezza di banda delle reti wireless. All'interno di tale ambito, stanno recentemente assumendo sempre maggiore importanza i sistemi context-aware, ovvero sistemi mobili che sfruttano i dati provenienti dall'ambiente circostante e dai dispositivi stessi per adattare il proprio comportamento e notificare agli utenti la presenza di informazioni potenzialmente utili. Nello studio di questi sistemi, si è notato che i nodi che si trovano nella stessa area geografica generano tipicamente delle sottoscrizioni che presentano tra loro un certo grado di similarità e coperture parziali o totali. Il gruppo di ricerca del DEIS dell’Università di Bologna ha sviluppato un'infrastruttura di supporto per sistemi mobili context-aware, chiamata SALES. Attualmente il sistema progettato non considera le similarità delle sottoscrizioni e quindi non sfrutta opportunamente tale informazione. In questo contesto si rende necessario l'adozione di opportune tecniche di aggregazione delle sottoscrizioni atte ad alleggerire la computazione dei nodi mobili e le comunicazioni tra loro. Il lavoro presentato in questa tesi sarà finalizzato alla ricerca, all'adattamento ed all'implementazione di una tecnica di aggregazione delle sottoscrizioni. Tale tecnica avrà lo scopo di rilevare e sfruttare le similarità delle sottoscrizioni ricevute dal sistema al fine di ridurne il numero; in questo modo, quando un nodo riceverà un dato, il processo di confronto tra l'insieme delle sottoscrizioni memorizzate e il dato ricevuto sarà più leggero, consentendo un risparmio di risorse computazionali. Inoltre, adattando tali tecniche, sarà possibile modulare anche il traffico dati scaturito dalle risposte alle sottoscrizioni. La struttura di questa tesi prevede un primo capitolo sui sistemi context-aware, descrivendone le principali caratteristiche e mettendo in luce le problematiche ad essi associate. Il secondo capitolo illustra il modello di comunicazione Publish/Subscribe, modello di riferimento per i moderni sistemi context-aware e per i sistemi mobili in generale. Il terzo capitolo descrive l'infrastruttura SALES sulla quale si è progettata, implementata e testata la soluzione proposta in questa tesi. Il quarto capitolo presenta le principali tecniche di aggregazione delle sottoscrizioni e spiega come possono essere adattate al contesto di questa tesi. Il quinto capitolo effettua l'analisi dei requisiti per comprendere meglio il comportamento della soluzione; seguono la progettazione e l’implementazione della soluzione su SALES. Infine, il sesto capitolo riporta in dettaglio i risultati ottenuti da alcuni degli esperimenti effettuati e vengono messi a confronto con quelli rilevati dal sistema di partenza.

Fully Automatic Segmentation of Brain Tumor Images using Support Vector Machine Classiffication in Combination with Hierarchical Conditional Random Field Regularization

Delineating brain tumor boundaries from magnetic resonance images is an essential task for the analysis of brain cancer. We propose a fully automatic method for brain tissue segmentation, which combines Support Vector Machine classification using multispectral intensities and textures with subsequent hierarchical regularization based on Conditional Random Fields. The CRF regularization introduces spatial constraints to the powerful SVM classification, which assumes voxels to be independent from their neighbors. The approach first separates healthy and tumor tissue before both regions are subclassified into cerebrospinal fluid, white matter, gray matter and necrotic, active, edema region respectively in a novel hierarchical way. The hierarchical approach adds robustness and speed by allowing to apply different levels of regularization at different stages. The method is fast and tailored to standard clinical acquisition protocols. It was assessed on 10 multispectral patient datasets with results outperforming previous methods in terms of segmentation detail and computation times.

A transgenic model for conditional induction and rescue of portal hypertension reveals a role of VEGF-mediated regulation of sinusoidal fenestrations

Portal hypertension (PH) is a common complication and a leading cause of death in patients with chronic liver diseases. PH is underlined by structural and functional derangement of liver sinusoid vessels and its fenestrated endothelium. Because in most clinical settings PH is accompanied by parenchymal injury, it has been difficult to determine the precise role of microvascular perturbations in causing PH. Reasoning that Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) is required to maintain functional integrity of the hepatic microcirculation, we developed a transgenic mouse system for a liver-specific-, reversible VEGF inhibition. The system is based on conditional induction and de-induction of a VEGF decoy receptor that sequesters VEGF and preclude signaling. VEGF blockade results in sinusoidal endothelial cells (SECs) fenestrations closure and in accumulation and transformation of the normally quiescent hepatic stellate cells, i.e. provoking the two processes underlying sinusoidal capillarization. Importantly, sinusoidal capillarization was sufficient to cause PH and its typical sequela, ascites, splenomegaly and venous collateralization without inflicting parenchymal damage or fibrosis. Remarkably, these dramatic phenotypes were fully reversed within few days from lifting-off VEGF blockade and resultant re-opening of SECs' fenestrations. This study not only uncovered an indispensible role for VEGF in maintaining structure and function of mature SECs, but also highlights the vasculo-centric nature of PH pathogenesis. Unprecedented ability to rescue PH and its secondary manifestations via manipulating a single vascular factor may also be harnessed for examining the potential utility of de-capillarization treatment modalities.

Predicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities

Determination of future risk of exacerbations is a key issue in the management of asthma. We previously developed a method to calculate conditional probabilities (π) of future decreases in lung function by using the daily fluctuations in peak expiratory flow (PEF).

« … Quatre sales enfants métisses ... » - Colonisation par adaptation ? Le cas de Yaoundé.

The article wants to describe, how far colonial administration accepted to adopt local policies of colonized societies. The case study is about the early years of the Jaunde station in German Kamerun. / Le présent article pose la question de savoir jusqu’à quel niveau le pouvoir colonial allemand a été prêt à s'adapter à la situation sociale qu'il a trouvé sur place. La question est traitée à l'exemple de l'histoire du poste de Jaunde (Yaoundé) au Kamerun allemand. // Cameroun (1884-1916), Yaoundé, Georg August Zenker (1855-1922), Richard Kund (1852–1904), Hans Tappenbeck (1861-1889), Kurt von Morgen (1858-1928), Hans Dominik (1870-1910), Essono Ela, Omgba Bisogo, Jaunde, Kamerun, Colonisation allemande