Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

A Flexible Architecture for the Computation of Direct and Inverse Transforms in H.264/AVC Video Codecs

A new high throughput and scalable architecture for unified transform coding in H.264/AVC is proposed in this paper. Such flexible structure is capable of computing all the 4x4 and 2x2 transforms for Ultra High Definition Video (UHDV) applications (4320x7680@ 30fps) in real-time and with low hardware cost. These significantly high performance levels were proven with the implementation of several different configurations of the proposed structure using both FPGA and ASIC 90 nm technologies. In addition, such experimental evaluation also demonstrated the high area efficiency of theproposed architecture, which in terms of Data Throughput per Unit of Area (DTUA) is at least 1.5 times more efficient than its more prominent related designs(1).

Transmission cost allocation using cooperative game theory: a comparative study

In this paper is presented a Game Theory based methodology to allocate transmission costs, considering cooperation and competition between producers. As original contribution, it finds the degree of participation on the additional costs according to the demand behavior. A comparative study was carried out between the obtained results using Nucleolus balance and Shapley Value, with other techniques such as Averages Allocation method and the Generalized Generation Distribution Factors method (GGDF). As example, a six nodes network was used for the simulations. The results demonstrate the ability to find adequate solutions on open access environment to the networks.

Topological Complexity and Predictability in the Dynamics of a Tumor Growth Model with Shilnikov's Chaos

Dynamical systems modeling tumor growth have been investigated to determine the dynamics between tumor and healthy cells. Recent theoretical investigations indicate that these interactions may lead to different dynamical outcomes, in particular to homoclinic chaos. In the present study, we analyze both topological and dynamical properties of a recently characterized chaotic attractor governing the dynamics of tumor cells interacting with healthy tissue cells and effector cells of the immune system. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first characterize the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of kneading sequences from one-dimensional iterated maps identified in the dynamics, focusing on the effects of inactivation interactions between both effector and tumor cells. The previous analyses are complemented with the computation of the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents, the fractal dimension and the predictability of the chaotic attractors. Our results show that the inactivation rate of effector cells by the tumor cells has an important effect on the dynamics of the system. The increase of effector cells inactivation involves an inverse Feigenbaum (i.e. period-halving bifurcation) scenario, which results in the stabilization of the dynamics and in an increase of dynamics predictability. Our analyses also reveal that, at low inactivation rates of effector cells, tumor cells undergo strong, chaotic fluctuations, with the dynamics being highly unpredictable. Our findings are discussed in the context of tumor cells potential viability.

Between theory and practice – teaching maths to elementary school students in Poland

The development of children's school achievements in mathematics is one of the most important aims of education in Poland. The results of research concerning monitoring of school achievements in maths is not optimistic. We can observe low levels of children’s understanding of the merits of maths, self-developed strategies in solving problems and practical usage of maths skills. This article frames the discussion of this problem in its psychological and didactic context and analyses the causes as they relate to school practice in teaching maths

High Performance Multi-Standard Architecture for DCT Computation in H.264/AVC High Profile and HEVC Codecs

A new high performance architecture for the computation of all the DCT operations adopted in the H.264/AVC and HEVC standards is proposed in this paper. Contrasting to other dedicated transform cores, the presented multi-standard transform architecture is supported on a completely configurable, scalable and unified structure, that is able to compute not only the forward and the inverse 8×8 and 4×4 integer DCTs and the 4×4 and 2×2 Hadamard transforms defined in the H.264/AVC standard, but also the 4×4, 8×8, 16×16 and 32×32 integer transforms adopted in HEVC. Experimental results obtained using a Xilinx Virtex-7 FPGA demonstrated the superior performance and hardware efficiency levels provided by the proposed structure, which outperforms its more prominent related designs by at least 1.8 times. When integrated in a multi-core embedded system, this architecture allows the computation, in real-time, of all the transforms mentioned above for resolutions as high as the 8k Ultra High Definition Television (UHDTV) (7680×4320 @ 30fps).

Microscopic Theory of Anchoring Transitions at the Surfaces of Pure Liquid-Crystals and their Mixtures .1. The Fowler Approximation

We have generalized earlier work on anchoring of nematic liquid crystals by Sullivan, and Sluckin and Poniewierski, in order to study transitions which may occur in binary mixtures of nematic liquid crystals as a function of composition. Microscopic expressions have been obtained for the anchoring energy of (i) a liquid crystal in contact with a solid aligning surface; (ii) a liquid crystal in contact with an immiscible isotropic medium; (iii) a liquid crystal mixture in contact with a solid aligning surface. For (iii), possible phase diagrams of anchoring angle versus dopant concentration have been calculated using a simple liquid crystal model. These exhibit some interesting features including re-entrant conical anchoring, for what are believed to be realistic values of the molecular parameters. A way of relaxing the most drastic approximation implicit in the above approach is also briefly discussed.

Simulation and theory of hybrid aligned liquid crystal films

We present a study of the effects of nanoconfinement on a system of hard Gaussian overlap particles interacting with planar substrates through the hard-needle-wall potential, extending earlier work by two of us [D. J. Cleaver and P. I. C. Teixeira, Chem. Phys. Lett. 338, 1 (2001)]. Here, we consider the case of hybrid films, where one of the substrates induces strongly homeotropic anchoring, while the other favors either weakly homeotropic or planar anchoring. These systems are investigated using both Monte Carlo simulation and density-functional theory, the latter implemented at the level of Onsager's second-virial approximation with Parsons-Lee rescaling. The orientational structure is found to change either continuously or discontinuously depending on substrate separation, in agreement with earlier predictions by others. The theory is seen to perform well in spite of its simplicity, predicting the positional and orientational structure seen in simulations even for small particle elongations.

Quais os motivos do insucesso de algumas crianças na aprendizagem musical? Motivação e Flow Theory

Este artigo aborda a natureza da motivação na sua relação com a aprendizagem musical. Um dos objectivos principais é problematizar a questão das diferenças no sucesso da aprendizagem musical quando nos encontramos perante indivíduos com níveis aparentemente semelhantes de capacidade e potencial musicais. Começa por apresentar um conjunto de modelos teóricos que oferecem uma visão acerca das razões que podem explicar as variações e mudanças na motivação. Refere-se investigação recente que sugere que os processos motivacionais não são pré-determinados mas podem ser aprendidos e que os indivíduos, para atingir níveis elevados de sucesso, necessitam de uma focagem no processo por oposição a uma focagem no produto. São introduzidos e explorados processos cognitivos fundamentais relacionados com a aprendizagem musical (por exemplo, comportamento au to-regulado, papel da motivação intrínseca e extrínseca) . Como conclusão, sugerem-se algumas práticas específicas para que os professores possam reflectir acerca da melhor forma de encorajar e aumentar a motivação dos seus alunos para aprender música.

Análise e síntese de música através de sistemas computacionais

Este trabalho, realizado no âmbito da unidade curricular de Tese/Dissertação, procura mostrar de que forma a Computação Evolucionária se pode aplicar no mundo da Música. Este é, de resto, um tema sobejamente aliciante dentro da área da Inteligência Artificial. Começa-se por apresentar o mundo da Música com uma perspetiva cronológica da sua história, dando especial relevo ao estilo musical do Fado de Coimbra. Abordam-se também os conceitos fundamentais da teoria musical. Relativamente à Computação Evolucionária, expõem-se os elementos associados aos Algoritmos Evolucionários e apresentam-se os principais modelos, nomeadamente os Algoritmos Genéticos. Ainda no âmbito da Computação Evolucionária, foi elaborado um pequeno estudo do “estado da arte” da aplicação da Computação Evolucionária na Música. A implementação prática deste trabalho baseia-se numa aplicação – AG Fado – que compõe melodias de Fado de Coimbra, utilizando Algoritmos Genéticos. O trabalho foi dividido em duas partes principais: a primeira parte consiste na recolha de informações e posterior levantamento de dados estatísticos sobre o género musical escolhido, nomeadamente fados em tonalidade maior e fados em tonalidade menor; a segunda parte consiste no desenvolvimento da aplicação, com a conceção do respetivo algoritmo genético para composição de melodias. As melodias obtidas através da aplicação desenvolvida são bastante audíveis e boas melodicamente. No entanto, destaca-se o facto de a avaliação ser efetuada por seres humanos o que implica sensibilidades musicais distintas levando a resultados igualmente distintos.

Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Towards a Unified Theory of Health-Disease: I. Health as a complex model-object

Theory building is one of the most crucial challenges faced by basic, clinical and population research, which form the scientific foundations of health practices in contemporary societies. The objective of the study is to propose a Unified Theory of Health-Disease as a conceptual tool for modeling health-disease-care in the light of complexity approaches. With this aim, the epistemological basis of theoretical work in the health field and concepts related to complexity theory as concerned to health problems are discussed. Secondly, the concepts of model-object, multi-planes of occurrence, modes of health and disease-illness-sickness complex are introduced and integrated into a unified theoretical framework. Finally, in the light of recent epistemological developments, the concept of Health-Disease-Care Integrals is updated as a complex reference object fit for modeling health-related processes and phenomena.