A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Liikennepolttoaineeksi tarkoitettu ohraetanoli, Suomen ohramarkkinat ja ilmastonmuutos

The aim of the thesis was to analyze the use of barley as an input for bioethanol production and the impacts the use has on the Finnish barley markets. Two main research questions were formulated. First, privately and socially optimal bioethanol production levels were examined. In the social optimum, the climate benefits of bioethanol production were considered. It was calculated that the production and use of bioethanol created smaller CO2 -emissions when compared with the production and use of gasoline. Second, the impacts of bioethanol production on farmland allocation and agricultural production were analyzed. In more detail, the second aim was to analyze the farmland allocation between wheat and barley cultivation and green set aside in the private and social optimum. An analytical model was produced to analyze the barley markets in Finland. To provide an empirical counterpart to this model, existing research data on bioethanol production and barley cultivation was used. The aim of the model was to analyze the supply and the demand as well as market equilibrium of barley. Furthermore, the model provided a framework for analyzing the differences between the private optimum and social optimum of bioethanol production in Finland. The demand for barley consists of animal feed demand and bioethanol demand. On the supply side, a heterogeneous model of farmland quality was used. With this framework, it is possible to analyze farmland allocation between barley and wheat cultivation and green set aside and how the climate benefits of bioethanol production affects the allocation. Moreover, the relative changes in barley price between the private and social optimum were analyzed. Based on the empirical analysis, the private optimum for barley based bioethanol production is 58 691 metric tons. However, the social optimum for barley based bioethanol production is 72 736 metric tons. The portion of farmland that is allocated to barley cultivation is increased if the climate benefits of bioethanol production are considered. In the private optimum, 1/19 of the total farmland is allocated to barley cultivation whereas in social optimum the share increases to 7/19. Furthermore, the increase in barley price between private and social optimum is rather modest. Total increase in price is only about 1,8 percent.

Tukien tuotannosta irrottamisen vaikutukset viljan, naudanlihan ja sianlihan tarjontaan Suomessa

This research discusses decoupling CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) support and impacts which may occur on grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork in Finland. The study presents the definitions and studies on decoupled agricultural subsidies, the development of supply of grain, beef and pork in Finland and changes in leading factors affecting supply between 1970 and 2005. Decoupling agricultural subsidies means that the linkage between subsidies and production levels is disconnected; subsidies do not affect the amount produced. The hypothesis is that decoupling will decrease the amounts produced in agriculture substantially. In the supply research, the econometric models which represent supply of agricultural products are estimated based on the data of prices and amounts produced. With estimated supply models, the impacts of changes in prices and public policies, can be forecasted according to supply of agricultural products. In this study, three regression models describing combined cultivation areas of rye, wheat, oats and barley, and the supply of beef and pork are estimated. Grain cultivation area and supply of beef are estimated based on data from 1970 to 2005 and supply of pork on data from 1995 to 2005. The dependencies in the model are postulated to be linear. The explanatory variables in the grain model were average return per hectare, agricultural subsidies, grain cultivation area in the previous year and the cost of fertilization. The explanatory variables in the beef model were the total return from markets and subsidies and the amount of beef production in the previous year. In the pork model the explanatory variables were the total return, the price of piglet, investment subsidies, trend of increasing productivity and the dummy variable of the last quarter of the year. The R-squared of model of grain cultivation area was 0,81, the model of beef supply 0,77 and the model of pork supply 0,82. Development of grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork was estimated for 2006 - 2013 with this regression model. In the basic scenario, development of explanatory variables in 2006 - 2013 was postulated to be the same as they used to be in average in 1995 - 2005. After the basic scenario the impacts of decoupling CAP subsidies and domestic subsidies on cultivation area and supply were simulated. According to the results of the decoupling CAP subsidies scenario, grain cultivation area decreases from 1,12 million hectares in 2005 to 1,0 million hectares in 2013 and supply of beef from 88,8 million kilos in 2005 to 67,7 million kilos in 2013. Decoupling domestic and investment subsidies will decrease the supply of pork from 194 million kilos in 2005 to 187 million kilos in 2006. By 2013 the supply of pork grows into 203 million kilos.

Dietary media for mass rearing of rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) and flat grain beetle, Cryptolestes pusillus (Schonherr) (Coleoptera: Cucujidae)

We developed a suitable diet for mass rearing of Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) populations under laboratory conditions. Recently, this pest has developed strong level of resistance to phosphine in Australia, and therefore, a significant amount of research has been directed towards its management. In total, nineteen grain-based diets, containing rolled oats, various combinations of cracked grains and flours of wheat, sorghum, maize and barley were tested. Each diet contained a small proportion of wheat germ (4.5% w/w) and torula yeast (0.5% w/w). Experiments were conducted at fixed temperature and relative humidity regimes of 30 ± 2 °C and 70 ± 2%, respectively, and replicated three times. Adults (n = 40) of a laboratory strain of C. ferrugineus were introduced into each diet, removed after 14 days and total numbers of live adult progeny were recorded. The following diets resulted in highest live progeny production: barley flour (95%) (607.67 ± 11.21) = rolled oats (75%) + cracked sorghum (20%) (597.33 ± 33.79) ≥ wheat flour (47.5%) + barley flour (47.5%) (496.67 ± 52.93) > cracked sorghum (95%) (384.00 ± 60.66). The performance of these four diets was then tested with field-collected populations of C. ferrugineus and Cryptolestes pusillus (Schonherr). The diets based on rolled oats + cracked sorghum, wheat flour + barley flour, and barley flour alone consistently produced highest progeny numbers in field-collected populations of both species, with mean progeny numbers ranging from 359.9 to 478.5. The multiplication of C. pusillus was significantly higher than C. ferrugineus on all four diets. Our findings will help in mass rearing of healthy cultures of C. ferrugineus and C. pusillus that will greatly facilitate laboratory and field research and in particular, in developing management tactics for these species.

Networks of stored grain diseases and pests: Strategies for sampling and mitigation

Pathogens and pests of stored grains move through complex dynamic networks linking fields, farms, and bulk storage facilities. Human transport and other forms of dispersal link the components of this network. A network model for pathogen and pest movement through stored grain systems is a first step toward new sampling and mitigation strategies that utilize information about the network structure. An understanding of network structure can be applied to identifying the key network components for pathogen or pest movement through the system. For example, it may be useful to identify a network node, such as a local grain storage facility, through which grain from a large number of fields will be accumulated and move through the network. This node may be particularly important for sampling and mitigation. In some cases more detailed information about network structure can identify key nodes that link two large sections of the network, such that management at the key nodes will greatly reduce the risk of spread between the two sections. In addition to the spread of particular species of pathogens and pests, we also evaluate the spread of problematic subpopulations, such as subpopulations with pesticide resistance. We present an analysis of stored grain pathogen and pest networks for Australia and the United States.

QTL analysis in multiple sorghum populations facilitates the dissection of the genetic and physiological control of tillering

Tillering in sorghum can be associated with either the carbon supply–demand (S/D) balance of the plant or an intrinsic propensity to tiller (PTT). Knowledge of the genetic control of tillering could assist breeders in selecting germplasm with tillering characteristics appropriate for their target environments. The aims of this study were to identify QTL for tillering and component traits associated with the S/D balance or PTT, to develop a framework model for the genetic control of tillering in sorghum. Four mapping populations were grown in a number of experiments in south east Queensland, Australia. The QTL analysis suggested that the contribution of traits associated with either the S/D balance or PTT to the genotypic differences in tillering differed among populations. Thirty-four tillering QTL were identified across the populations, of which 15 were novel to this study. Additionally, half of the tillering QTL co-located with QTL for component traits. A comparison of tillering QTL and candidate gene locations identified numerous coincident QTL and gene locations across populations, including the identification of common non-synonymous SNPs in the parental genotypes of two mapping populations in a sorghum homologue of MAX1, a gene involved in the control of tiller bud outgrowth through the production of strigolactones. Combined with a framework for crop physiological processes that underpin genotypic differences in tillering, the co-location of QTL for tillering and component traits and candidate genes allowed the development of a framework QTL model for the genetic control of tillering in sorghum.

Immediate, cumulative and residual effects of short- and long-term low plane of nutrition on milk protein and casein composition

Immediate and residual effects of two lengths of low plane of nutrition (PON) on the synthesis of milk protein and protein fractions were studied at the Mutdapilly Research Station, in south-east Queensland. Thirty-six multiparous Holstein-Friesian cows, between 46 and 102 days in milk (DIM) initially, were used in a completely randomised design experiment with three treatments. All cows were fed on a basal diet of ryegrass pasture (7.0 kg DM/cow.day), barley-sorghum concentrate mix (2.7 kg DM/cow.day) and a canola meal-mineral mix (1.3 kg DM/cow.day). To increase PON, 5.0 kg DM/cow.day supplemental maize and forage sorghum silage was added to the basal diet. The three treatments were (C) high PON (basal diet + supplemental silage); (L9) low PON (basal diet only) for a period of 9 weeks; and (L3) low PON (basal diet only) for a period of 3 weeks. The experiment comprised three periods (1) covariate – high PON, all groups (5 weeks), (2) period of low PON for either 3 weeks (L3) or 9 weeks (L9), and (3) period of high PON (all groups) to assess ability of cows to recover any production lost as a result of treatments (5 weeks). The low PON treatment periods for L3 and L9 were end-aligned so that all treatment groups began Period 3 together. Although there was a significant effect of L9 on yields of milk, protein, fat and lactose, and concentrations of true protein, whey protein and urea, these were not significantly different from L3. There were no residual effects of L3 or L9 on protein concentration or nitrogen distribution after 5 weeks of realimentation. There was no significant effect of low PON for 3 or 9 weeks on casein concentration or composition.

Validation of a new spot form of net blotch differential set and evidence for hybridisation between the spot and net forms of net blotch in Australia

A recently developed spot form of blotch differential set of 16 barley lines was tested for reaction response to 60 Pyrenophora teres f. maculata isolates from geographically disperse barley crops of Australia. Twelve barley lines (Arimont, Barque, Chebec, CI5286, CI5791, CI9214, CII6150, Dairokkaku, Esperance Orge 289, Galleon, Keel, Skiff, Torrens and TR250) provided differential response between the isolates. The susceptible controls Gairdner and Kombar provided indication of isolate virulence or avirulence. Abundant pathogenic diversity was revealed with 33 designated pathotypes, some of which related to geographic region. AFLP analysis also revealed abundant diversity with each of the isolates representing a unique genotype and one isolate that contained both AFLP bands unique to P. teres f. maculata and P. teres f. teres, the cause of spot form and net form of net blotch respectively, suggesting that sexual recombination between the net form and spot form isolates may have occurred naturally in the field.

Weed dynamics as influenced by tillage system, sowing time and weed competition duration in dry-seeded rice

Cultural practices alter patterns of crop growth and can modify dynamics of weed-crop competition, and hence need to be investigated to evolve sustainable weed management in dry-seeded rice (DSR). Studies on weed dynamics in DSR sown at different times under two tillage systems were conducted at the Agronomic Research Farm, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan. A commonly grown fine rice cultivar 'Super Basmati' was sown on 15th June and 7th July of 2010 and 2011 under zero-till (ZT) and conventional tillage (CONT) and it was subjected to different durations of weed competition [10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 days after sowing (DAS) and season-long competition]. Weed-free plots were maintained under each tillage system and sowing time for comparison. Grassy weeds were higher under ZT while CONT had higher relative proportion of broad-leaved weeds in terms of density and biomass. Density of sedges was higher by 175% in the crop sown on the 7th July than on the 15th June. Delaying sowing time of DSR from mid June to the first week of July reduced weed density by 69 and 43% but their biomass remained unaffected. Tillage systems had no effect on total weed biomass. Plots subjected to season-long weed competition had mostly grasses while broad-leaved weeds were not observed at harvest. In the second year of study, dominance of grassy weeds was increased under both tillage systems and sowing times. Significantly less biomass (48%) of grassy weeds was observed under CONT than ZT in 2010; however, during 2011, this effect was non-significant. Trianthema portulacastrum and Dactyloctenium aegyptium were the dominant broad-leaved and grassy weeds, respectively. Cyperus rotundus was the dominant sedge weed, especially in the crop sown on the 7th July. Relative yield loss (RYL) ranged from 3 to 13% and 7 to16% when weeds were allowed to compete only for 20 DAS. Under season-long weed competition, RYL ranged from 68 to 77% in 2010 and 74 to80% in 2011. The sowing time of 15th June was effective in minimizing weed proliferation and rectifying yield penalty associated with the 7th July sowing. The results suggest that DSR in Pakistan should preferably be sown on 15th June under CONT systems and weeds must be controlled before 20 DAS to avoid yield losses. Successful adoption of DSR at growers' fields in Pakistan will depend on whether growers can control weeds and prevent shifts in weed population from intractable weeds to more difficult-to-control weeds as a consequence of DSR adoption.

Formulation and characterization of drug-loaded microparticles using distiller’s dried grain kafirin

Kafirin, a protein extracted from sorghum grain has been formulated into microparticles, and proposed for use as a delivery system due to the resistance of kafirin to upper gastrointestinal digestion. However, extracting kafirin from sorghum “distiller’s dried grains with solubles” (DDGS) may be more efficient as the carbohydrate component has been removed by fermentation. This study investigated the properties and use of kafirin extracted from DDGS to formulate microparticles. Prednisolone, an anti-inflammatory drug that could benefit from a delayed and targeted delivery system to the colon, was loaded into DDGS kafirin microparticles by phase separation using sodium chloride. Scanning electron micrographs revealed that the empty and prednisolone-loaded microparticles were round in shape and varied in size. Surface binding studies indicated prednisolone was loaded within the microparticles rather than being solely bound on the surface. These findings demonstrate DDGS kafirin can be formulated into microparticles and loaded with medication. Future studies could investigate the potential applications of DDGS kafirin microparticles as an orally administered targeted drug-delivery system.

Agronomic indices, growth, yield-contributing traits, and yield of dry-seeded rice under varying herbicides

Dry-seeded rice (DSR) is an emerging resource-conserving technology in many Asian countries, but weeds remain the major threat to the production of DSR systems. A field study was conducted in 2012 and 2013 at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Philippines, to evaluate the performance of sole and sequential applications of preemergence (oxadiazon and pendimethalin), early postemergence (butachlor + propanil and thiobencarb + 2,4-D), and late postemergence herbicides (bispyribac-sodium and fenoxaprop + ethoxysulfuron) with different modes of action in comparison to manual weeding in DSR. The sequential applications of all preemergence and postemergence herbicides reduced weed density and biomass by 80–100% compared to the nontreated plots. The sole application of postemergence herbicides reduced weed density by only 44–54% and weed biomass by 51–61%, whereas oxadiazon alone reduced weed density and biomass by 96–100%. All herbicide treatments and manual weeding significantly affected tiller number, biomass, crop growth rate, agronomic indices, yield-contributing parameters (panicle density and filled grains), and yield (biological and grain) of rice. The highest grain yield was obtained in the manually weeded plots (5.9–6.1 t ha−1) and the plots treated with oxadiazon alone (5.4–5.6 t ha−1) and oxadiazon followed by postemergence herbicides (5.2–5.8 t ha−1). The lowest paddy yield (0.22 t ha−1) was achieved in the nontreated plots followed by the plots treated with the sole application of bispyribac-sodium and fenoxaprop + ethoxysulfuron. The results suggest that oxadiazon is the best broad-spectrum and economically effective herbicide when applied alone or in combination with other effective postemergence herbicides with different modes of action, depending on the weed species present in the field.

Efficacy and phytotoxicity of different rates of oxadiargyl and pendimethalin in dry-seeded rice (Oryza sativa L.) in Bangladesh

A field study was established to evaluate oxadiargyl and pendimethalin during the wet seasons in Bangladesh in 2012 and 2013. The study evaluated the following treatments: oxadiargyl applied at 80, 120, and 160 g ai ha−1; pendimethalin at 800, 1200, and 1600 g ai ha−1; partial weedy; and weed-free. Rice plant density was greatly affected by weed control treatment. Lower density and lower uniformity of the rice plant stand occurred as a result of increased rates of herbicides. Increased rates of pendimethalin were more toxic than increased rates of oxadiargyl. Both herbicides effectively controlled Digitaria ciliaris, Echinochloa colona, and Phyllanthus niruri; however, they were unable to control Murdannia nudiflora. Oxadiargyl controlled Cyperus rotundus across rates by 31–55%, but pendimethalin was completely ineffective on it, and higher rates of both herbicides had no effect in controlling this weed. Both herbicides at higher rates reduced total weed biomass significantly. Among herbicide treatments, the highest yield (3.7–4.0 t ha−1) was recorded in plots treated with oxadiargyl at 160 g ai ha−1 and the lowest yield (2.4–2.8 t ha−1) was in plots treated with pendimethalin at 1600 g ai ha−1. Results from our study suggest that a higher rate of oxadiargyl can increase yield by suppressing weeds in dry-seeded rice systems. Similar to the results of oxadiargyl, pendimethalin at higher rates also greatly suppressed weeds; however, yield decreased due to phytotoxicity to rice seedlings.

Weed control in dry direct-seeded rice using tank mixtures of herbicides in South Asia

Dry direct-seeded rice (DSR) faces with complex weed problems particularly when farmers missed pre-emergence herbicide applications. Thus, an effective and strategic weed control in DSR is often required with available options of post-emergence herbicides. In such situations, tank mixtures of herbicides may provide broad spectrum weed control in DSR. Field experiments were conducted in the wet seasons of 2013 and 2014 to study weed control in response to tank mixtures of herbicides currently applied in DSR in South Asia. Results revealed that the tank mixtures of the currently available herbicides (azimsulfuron plus bispyribac or fenoxaprop, bispyribac plus fenoxaprop, and azimsulfuron plus bispyribac plus fenoxaprop; all applied as post-emergence) rarely resulted in antagonistic effects. Highest weed control efficiency (∼98%) was recorded with the tank mixture of azimsulfuron plus bispyribac plus fenoxaprop during both the years. This treatment also produced highest grain yield (7.2 t ha−1 in 2013 and 7.9 t ha−1in 2014), which was similar to the grain yield in the plots treated with the tank mix of azimsulfuron plus fenoxaprop, pendimethalin (applied as pre-emergence) followed by (fb) bispyribac, pendimethalin fb fenoxaprop, as well as pendimethalin fb azimsulfuron. Plots treated with the post-emergence application of single herbicide (i.e., azimsulfuron, bispyribac, or fenoxaprop) had lower grain yield (3.0–5.2 t ha−1 in 2013 to 3.5–6.1 t ha−1in 2014) than all the sequential herbicide treatments and tank mixtures (azimsulfuron plus fenoxaprop and azimsulfuron plus bispyribac), owing to a broad spectrum weed control. The study suggested that if farmers missed the pre-emergence application of herbicides (e.g., pendimethalin) due to erratic rains or due to other reasons, good weed control and high yield can still be obtained with tank mix applications of azimsulfuron plus fenoxaprop or azimsulfuron plus bispyribac plus fenoxaprop in DSR.

Formulation and characterization of drug-loaded microparticles using distiller’s dried grain kafirin

Kafirin, a protein extracted from sorghum grain has been formulated into microparticles, and proposed for use as a delivery system due to the resistance of kafirin to upper gastrointestinal digestion. However, extracting kafirin from sorghum distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) may be more efficient as the carbohydrate component has been removed by fermentation. This study investigated the properties and use of kafirin extracted from DDGS to formulate microparticles. Prednisolone, an anti-inflammatory drug that could benefit from a delayed and targeted delivery system to the colon, was loaded into DDGS kafirin microparticles by phase separation using sodium chloride. Scanning electron micrographs revealed that the empty and prednisolone-loaded microparticles were round in shape and varied in size. Surface binding studies indicated prednisolone was loaded within the microparticles rather than being solely bound on the surface. These findings demonstrate DDGS kafirin can be formulated into microparticles and loaded with medication. Future studies could investigate the potential applications of DDGS kafirin microparticles as an orally administered targeted drug-delivery system.