901 resultados para Asymptotic behaviour, Bayesian methods, Mixture models, Overfitting, Posterior concentration
Resumo:
This paper examines the issue of face, speaker and bi-modal authentication in mobile environments when there is significant condition mismatch. We introduce this mismatch by enrolling client models on high quality biometric samples obtained on a laptop computer and authenticating them on lower quality biometric samples acquired with a mobile phone. To perform these experiments we develop three novel authentication protocols for the large publicly available MOBIO database. We evaluate state-of-the-art face, speaker and bi-modal authentication techniques and show that inter-session variability modelling using Gaussian mixture models provides a consistently robust system for face, speaker and bi-modal authentication. It is also shown that multi-algorithm fusion provides a consistent performance improvement for face, speaker and bi-modal authentication. Using this bi-modal multi-algorithm system we derive a state-of-the-art authentication system that obtains a half total error rate of 6.3% and 1.9% for Female and Male trials, respectively.
Resumo:
Long-term systematic population monitoring data sets are rare but are essential in identifying changes in species abundance. In contrast, community groups and natural history organizations have collected many species lists. These represent a large, untapped source of information on changes in abundance but are generally considered of little value. The major problem with using species lists to detect population changes is that the amount of effort used to obtain the list is often uncontrolled and usually unknown. It has been suggested that using the number of species on the list, the "list length," can be a measure of effort. This paper significantly extends the utility of Franklin's approach using Bayesian logistic regression. We demonstrate the value of List Length Analysis to model changes in species prevalence (i.e., the proportion of lists on which the species occurs) using bird lists collected by a local bird club over 40 years around Brisbane, southeast Queensland, Australia. We estimate the magnitude and certainty of change for 269 bird species and calculate the probabilities that there have been declines and increases of given magnitudes. List Length Analysis confirmed suspected species declines and increases. This method is an important complement to systematically designed intensive monitoring schemes and provides a means of utilizing data that may otherwise be deemed useless. The results of List Length Analysis can be used for targeting species of conservation concern for listing purposes or for more intensive monitoring. While Bayesian methods are not essential for List Length Analysis, they can offer more flexibility in interrogating the data and are able to provide a range of parameters that are easy to interpret and can facilitate conservation listing and prioritization. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.
Resumo:
Sepsid flies (Diptera: Sepsidae) are important model insects for sexual selection research. In order to develop mitochondrial (mt) genome data for this significant group, we sequenced the first complete mt genome of the sepsid fly Nemopoda mamaevi Ozerov, 1997. The circular 15,878 bp mt genome is typical of Diptera, containing all 37 genes usually present in bilaterian animals. We discovered inaccurate annotations of fly mt genomes previously deposited on GenBank and thus re-annotated all published mt genomes of Cyclorrhapha. These re-annotations were based on comparative analysis of homologous genes, and provide a statistical analysis of start and stop codon positions. We further detected two 18 bp of conserved intergenic sequences from tRNAGlu-tRNAPhe and ND1-tRNASer(UCN) across Cyclorrhapha, which are the mtTERM binding site motifs. Additionally, we compared automated annotation software MITOS with hand annotation method. Phylogenetic trees based on the mt genome data from Cyclorrhapha were inferred by Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods, strongly supported a close relationship between Sepsidae and the Tephritoidea.
Resumo:
Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.
Resumo:
The objectives of this study were to predict the potential distribution, relative abundance and probability of habitat use by feral camels in southern Northern Territory. Aerial survey data were used to model habitat association. The characteristics of ‘used’ (where camels were observed) v. ‘unused’ (pseudo-absence) sites were compared. Habitat association and abundance were modelled using generalised additive model (GAM) methods. The models predicted habitat suitability and the relative abundance of camels in southern Northern Territory. The habitat suitability maps derived in the present study indicate that camels have suitable habitat in most areas of southern Northern Territory. The index of abundance model identified areas of relatively high camel abundance. Identifying preferred habitats and areas of high abundance can help focus control efforts.
Resumo:
The objective was to measure productivity growth and its components in Finnish agriculture, especially in dairy farming. The objective was also to compare different methods and models - both parametric (stochastic frontier analysis) and non-parametric (data envelopment analysis) - in estimating the components of productivity growth and the sensitivity of results with respect to different approaches. The parametric approach was also applied in the investigation of various aspects of heterogeneity. A common feature of the first three of five articles is that they concentrate empirically on technical change, technical efficiency change and the scale effect, mainly on the basis of the decompositions of Malmquist productivity index. The last two articles explore an intermediate route between the Fisher and Malmquist productivity indices and develop a detailed but meaningful decomposition for the Fisher index, including also empirical applications. Distance functions play a central role in the decomposition of Malmquist and Fisher productivity indices. Three panel data sets from 1990s have been applied in the study. The common feature of all data used is that they cover the periods before and after Finnish EU accession. Another common feature is that the analysis mainly concentrates on dairy farms or their roughage production systems. Productivity growth on Finnish dairy farms was relatively slow in the 1990s: approximately one percent per year, independent of the method used. Despite considerable annual variation, productivity growth seems to have accelerated towards the end of the period. There was a slowdown in the mid-1990s at the time of EU accession. No clear immediate effects of EU accession with respect to technical efficiency could be observed. Technical change has been the main contributor to productivity growth on dairy farms. However, average technical efficiency often showed a declining trend, meaning that the deviations from the best practice frontier are increasing over time. This suggests different paths of adjustment at the farm level. However, different methods to some extent provide different results, especially for the sub-components of productivity growth. In most analyses on dairy farms the scale effect on productivity growth was minor. A positive scale effect would be important for improving the competitiveness of Finnish agriculture through increasing farm size. This small effect may also be related to the structure of agriculture and to the allocation of investments to specific groups of farms during the research period. The result may also indicate that the utilization of scale economies faces special constraints in Finnish conditions. However, the analysis of a sample of all types of farms suggested a more considerable scale effect than the analysis on dairy farms.
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A recently developed hanging drop air exposure system for toxicity studies of volatile chemicals was applied to evaluate the cell viability of lung carcinoma A549 cells after 1 h and 24 h of exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) as individual compounds and mixtures of 4 or 6 components. The cellular chemical concentrations causing 50% reduction of cell viability (EC50) were calculated use a mass balance model and came to 17, 12, 11, 9, 4 and 4 mmol/kg cell dry weight for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m-xylene, o-xylene and p-xylene respectively after 1 h of exposure. The EC50 decreased by a factor of four after 24 h of exposure. All mixture effects were best described by the mixture toxicity model of concentration addition, which is valid for chemicals with the same mode of action. Good agreement with the model predictions were found for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and m-xylene at four different representative fixed concentration ratios after 1 h of exposure but lower agreement to mixture prediction was obtained after 24 h of exposure. A recreated car exhaust mixture, which involved the contribution of the more toxic p-xylene and o-xylene, yielded an acceptable but lower quality prediction as well.
Resumo:
This paper presents an effective classification method based on Support Vector Machines (SVM) in the context of activity recognition. Local features that capture both spatial and temporal information in activity videos have made significant progress recently. Efficient and effective features, feature representation and classification plays a crucial role in activity recognition. For classification, SVMs are popularly used because of their simplicity and efficiency; however the common multi-class SVM approaches applied suffer from limitations including having easily confused classes and been computationally inefficient. We propose using a binary tree SVM to address the shortcomings of multi-class SVMs in activity recognition. We proposed constructing a binary tree using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), where activities are repeatedly allocated to subnodes until every new created node contains only one activity. Then, for each internal node a separate SVM is learned to classify activities, which significantly reduces the training time and increases the speed of testing compared to popular the `one-against-the-rest' multi-class SVM classifier. Experiments carried out on the challenging and complex Hollywood dataset demonstrates comparable performance over the baseline bag-of-features method.
Resumo:
Some theorems derived recently by the authors on the stability of multidimensional linear time varying systems are reported in this paper. To begin with, criteria based on Liapunov�s direct method are stated. These are followed by conditions on the asymptotic behaviour and boundedness of solutions. Finally,L 2 andL ? stabilities of these systems are discussed. In conclusion, mention is made of some of the problems in aerospace engineering to which these theorems have been applied.
Resumo:
The role of convergence feedback on the stability of a coupled ocean‐atmosphere system is studied using model III of Hirst (1986). It is shown that the unstable coupled mode found by Hirst is greatly modified by the convergence feedback. If the convergence feedback strength exceeds a critical value, several new unstable intraseasonal modes are also introduced. These modes have very weak dependence on the wave number. These results may explain the behaviour of some coupled models and to some extent provide a mechanism for the observed aperiodicity of the El‐Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.
Resumo:
A simple n-state configurational excitation model which takes into account the presence of weakly connected pentamer units in liquid water is proposed. The model has features of both the “continuum” and “mixture” models. Calculations based on this model satisfactorily account for the important, diagnostic thermodynamic properties of water such as the density maximum, fraction of monomers and so on.
Resumo:
We consider the equation u(t) + u(n)u(x) + H(x, t, u) = 0 and derive a transformation relating it to u(t) + u(n)u(x) = 0. Special cases of the equation appearing in applications are discussed. Initial value problems and asymptotic behaviour of the solution are studied.
Resumo:
An unsteady flow and heat transfer of a viscous incompressible electrically conducting fluid over a rotating infinite disk in an otherwise ambient fluid are studied. The unsteadiness in the flow field is caused by the angular velocity of the disk which varies with time. The magnetic field is applied normal to the disk surface. The new self-similar solution of the Navier-Stokes and energy equations is obtained numerically. The solution obtained here is not only the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations, but also of the boundary layer equations. Also, for a simple scaling factor, it represents the solution of the flow and heat transfer in the forward stagnation-point region of a rotating sphere or over a rotating cone. The asymptotic behaviour of the solution for a large magnetic field or for a large independent variable is also examined. The surface shear stresses in the radial and tangential directions and the surface heat transfer increase as the acceleration parameter increases. Also the surface shear stress in the radial direction and the surface heat transfer decrease with increasing magnetic field, but the surface shear stress in the tangential direction increases. (C) 2002 Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We propose a new abstract domain for static analysis of executable code. Concrete states are abstracted using circular linear progressions (CLPs). CLPs model computations using a finite word length as is seen in any real life processor. The finite abstraction allows handling overflow scenarios in a natural and straight-forward manner. Abstract transfer functions have been defined for a wide range of operations which makes this domain easily applicable for analyzing code for a wide range of ISAs. CLPs combine the scalability of interval domains with the discreteness of linear congruence domains. We also present a novel, lightweight method to track linear equality relations between static objects that is used by the analysis to improve precision. The analysis is efficient, the total space and time overhead being quadratic in the number of static objects being tracked.
Resumo:
Of the similar to 4000 ORFs identified through the genome sequence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) H37Rv, experimentally determined structures are available for 312. Since knowledge of protein structures is essential to obtain a high-resolution understanding of the underlying biology, we seek to obtain a structural annotation for the genome, using computational methods. Structural models were obtained and validated for similar to 2877 ORFs, covering similar to 70% of the genome. Functional annotation of each protein was based on fold-based functional assignments and a novel binding site based ligand association. New algorithms for binding site detection and genome scale binding site comparison at the structural level, recently reported from the laboratory, were utilized. Besides these, the annotation covers detection of various sequence and sub-structural motifs and quaternary structure predictions based on the corresponding templates. The study provides an opportunity to obtain a global perspective of the fold distribution in the genome. The annotation indicates that cellular metabolism can be achieved with only 219 folds. New insights about the folds that predominate in the genome, as well as the fold-combinations that make up multi-domain proteins are also obtained. 1728 binding pockets have been associated with ligands through binding site identification and sub-structure similarity analyses. The resource (http://proline.physics.iisc.ernet.in/Tbstructuralannotation), being one of the first to be based on structure-derived functional annotations at a genome scale, is expected to be useful for better understanding of TB and for application in drug discovery. The reported annotation pipeline is fairly generic and can be applied to other genomes as well.