Sampling designs on stream networks using the pseudo-Bayesian approach

Monitoring stream networks through time provides important ecological information. The sampling design problem is to choose locations where measurements are taken so as to maximise information gathered about physicochemical and biological variables on the stream network. This paper uses a pseudo-Bayesian approach, averaging a utility function over a prior distribution, in finding a design which maximizes the average utility. We use models for correlations of observations on the stream network that are based on stream network distances and described by moving average error models. Utility functions used reflect the needs of the experimenter, such as prediction of location values or estimation of parameters. We propose an algorithmic approach to design with the mean utility of a design estimated using Monte Carlo techniques and an exchange algorithm to search for optimal sampling designs. In particular we focus on the problem of finding an optimal design from a set of fixed designs and finding an optimal subset of a given set of sampling locations. As there are many different variables to measure, such as chemical, physical and biological measurements at each location, designs are derived from models based on different types of response variables: continuous, counts and proportions. We apply the methodology to a synthetic example and the Lake Eacham stream network on the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, Australia. We show that the optimal designs depend very much on the choice of utility function, varying from space filling to clustered designs and mixtures of these, but given the utility function, designs are relatively robust to the type of response variable.

Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management

This overview article for the special series “Bayesian Networks in Environmental and Resource Management” reviews 7 case study articles with the aim to compare Bayesian network (BN) applications to different environmental and resource management problems from around the world. The article discusses advances in the last decade in the use of BNs as applied to environmental and resource management. We highlight progress in computational methods, best-practices for model design and model communication. We review several research challenges to the use of BNs in environmental and resource management that we think may find a solution in the near future with further research attention.

Bayesian inference of traffic volumes based on Bluetooth data

The study of the relationship between macroscopic traffic parameters, such as flow, speed and travel time, is essential to the understanding of the behaviour of freeway and arterial roads. However, the temporal dynamics of these parameters are difficult to model, especially for arterial roads, where the process of traffic change is driven by a variety of variables. The introduction of the Bluetooth technology into the transportation area has proven exceptionally useful for monitoring vehicular traffic, as it allows reliable estimation of travel times and traffic demands. In this work, we propose an approach based on Bayesian networks for analyzing and predicting the complex dynamics of flow or volume, based on travel time observations from Bluetooth sensors. The spatio-temporal relationship between volume and travel time is captured through a first-order transition model, and a univariate Gaussian sensor model. The two models are trained and tested on travel time and volume data, from an arterial link, collected over a period of six days. To reduce the computational costs of the inference tasks, volume is converted into a discrete variable. The discretization process is carried out through a Self-Organizing Map. Preliminary results show that a simple Bayesian network can effectively estimate and predict the complex temporal dynamics of arterial volumes from the travel time data. Not only is the model well suited to produce posterior distributions over single past, current and future states; but it also allows computing the estimations of joint distributions, over sequences of states. Furthermore, the Bayesian network can achieve excellent prediction, even when the stream of travel time observation is partially incomplete.

Spatial prediction of N2O emissions in pasture : a Bayesian model averaging analysis

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N2O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N2O - environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N2O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m(2) field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N2O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N2O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N2O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N2O emissions across this study region.

Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific sub-regions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

A sequential Monte Carlo framework for adaptive Bayesian model discrimination designs using mutual information

In this paper we present a unified sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework for performing sequential experimental design for discriminating between a set of models. The model discrimination utility that we advocate is fully Bayesian and based upon the mutual information. SMC provides a convenient way to estimate the mutual information. Our experience suggests that the approach works well on either a set of discrete or continuous models and outperforms other model discrimination approaches.

Graph coloring applied to secure computation in non-Abelian groups

We study the natural problem of secure n-party computation (in the computationally unbounded attack model) of circuits over an arbitrary finite non-Abelian group (G,⋅), which we call G-circuits. Besides its intrinsic interest, this problem is also motivating by a completeness result of Barrington, stating that such protocols can be applied for general secure computation of arbitrary functions. For flexibility, we are interested in protocols which only require black-box access to the group G (i.e. the only computations performed by players in the protocol are a group operation, a group inverse, or sampling a uniformly random group element). Our investigations focus on the passive adversarial model, where up to t of the n participating parties are corrupted.

Multi-party computation with conversion of secret sharing

Classical results in unconditionally secure multi-party computation (MPC) protocols with a passive adversary indicate that every n-variate function can be computed by n participants, such that no set of size t < n/2 participants learns any additional information other than what they could derive from their private inputs and the output of the protocol. We study unconditionally secure MPC protocols in the presence of a passive adversary in the trusted setup (‘semi-ideal’) model, in which the participants are supplied with some auxiliary information (which is random and independent from the participant inputs) ahead of the protocol execution (such information can be purchased as a “commodity” well before a run of the protocol). We present a new MPC protocol in the trusted setup model, which allows the adversary to corrupt an arbitrary number t < n of participants. Our protocol makes use of a novel subprotocol for converting an additive secret sharing over a field to a multiplicative secret sharing, and can be used to securely evaluate any n-variate polynomial G over a field F, with inputs restricted to non-zero elements of F. The communication complexity of our protocol is O(ℓ · n 2) field elements, where ℓ is the number of non-linear monomials in G. Previous protocols in the trusted setup model require communication proportional to the number of multiplications in an arithmetic circuit for G; thus, our protocol may offer savings over previous protocols for functions with a small number of monomials but a large number of multiplications.

Active security in multiparty computation over black-box groups

Most previous work on unconditionally secure multiparty computation has focused on computing over a finite field (or ring). Multiparty computation over other algebraic structures has not received much attention, but is an interesting topic whose study may provide new and improved tools for certain applications. At CRYPTO 2007, Desmedt et al introduced a construction for a passive-secure multiparty multiplication protocol for black-box groups, reducing it to a certain graph coloring problem, leaving as an open problem to achieve security against active attacks. We present the first n-party protocol for unconditionally secure multiparty computation over a black-box group which is secure under an active attack model, tolerating any adversary structure Δ satisfying the Q 3 property (in which no union of three subsets from Δ covers the whole player set), which is known to be necessary for achieving security in the active setting. Our protocol uses Maurer’s Verifiable Secret Sharing (VSS) but preserves the essential simplicity of the graph-based approach of Desmedt et al, which avoids each shareholder having to rerun the full VSS protocol after each local computation. A corollary of our result is a new active-secure protocol for general multiparty computation of an arbitrary Boolean circuit.

Bayesian imputation of non-chosen attribute values in revealed preference surveys

Obtaining attribute values of non-chosen alternatives in a revealed preference context is challenging because non-chosen alternative attributes are unobserved by choosers, chooser perceptions of attribute values may not reflect reality, existing methods for imputing these values suffer from shortcomings, and obtaining non-chosen attribute values is resource intensive. This paper presents a unique Bayesian (multiple) Imputation Multinomial Logit model that imputes unobserved travel times and distances of non-chosen travel modes based on random draws from the conditional posterior distribution of missing values. The calibrated Bayesian (multiple) Imputation Multinomial Logit model imputes non-chosen time and distance values that convincingly replicate observed choice behavior. Although network skims were used for calibration, more realistic data such as supplemental geographically referenced surveys or stated preference data may be preferred. The model is ideally suited for imputing variation in intrazonal non-chosen mode attributes and for assessing the marginal impacts of travel policies, programs, or prices within traffic analysis zones.

Multi-party computation with omnipresent adversary

Secure multi-party computation (MPC) protocols enable a set of n mutually distrusting participants P 1, ..., P n , each with their own private input x i , to compute a function Y = F(x 1, ..., x n ), such that at the end of the protocol, all participants learn the correct value of Y, while secrecy of the private inputs is maintained. Classical results in the unconditionally secure MPC indicate that in the presence of an active adversary, every function can be computed if and only if the number of corrupted participants, t a , is smaller than n/3. Relaxing the requirement of perfect secrecy and utilizing broadcast channels, one can improve this bound to t a  < n/2. All existing MPC protocols assume that uncorrupted participants are truly honest, i.e., they are not even curious in learning other participant secret inputs. Based on this assumption, some MPC protocols are designed in such a way that after elimination of all misbehaving participants, the remaining ones learn all information in the system. This is not consistent with maintaining privacy of the participant inputs. Furthermore, an improvement of the classical results given by Fitzi, Hirt, and Maurer indicates that in addition to t a actively corrupted participants, the adversary may simultaneously corrupt some participants passively. This is in contrast to the assumption that participants who are not corrupted by an active adversary are truly honest. This paper examines the privacy of MPC protocols, and introduces the notion of an omnipresent adversary, which cannot be eliminated from the protocol. The omnipresent adversary can be either a passive, an active or a mixed one. We assume that up to a minority of participants who are not corrupted by an active adversary can be corrupted passively, with the restriction that at any time, the number of corrupted participants does not exceed a predetermined threshold. We will also show that the existence of a t-resilient protocol for a group of n participants, implies the existence of a t’-private protocol for a group of n′ participants. That is, the elimination of misbehaving participants from a t-resilient protocol leads to the decomposition of the protocol. Our adversary model stipulates that a MPC protocol never operates with a set of truly honest participants (which is a more realistic scenario). Therefore, privacy of all participants who properly follow the protocol will be maintained. We present a novel disqualification protocol to avoid a loss of privacy of participants who properly follow the protocol.