Inattention in individual expectations

This paper investigates the expectations formation process of economic agents about inflation rate. Using the Market Expectations System of Central Bank of Brazil, we perceive that agents do not update their forecasts every period and that even agents who update disagree in their predictions. We then focus on the two most popular types of inattention models that have been discussed in the recent literature: sticky-information and noisy-information models. Estimating a hybrid model we find that, although formally fitting the Brazilian data, it happens at the cost of a much higher degree of information rigidity than observed.

Impactos da imigração no mercado de trabalho brasileiro

Diante da importância que o tema da imigração adquiriu no país nos últimos anos, gerou-se uma necessidade de melhor entendimento dos efeitos econômicos causados por influxos populacionais dessa natureza. Todavia, sob o conhecimento dos autores, inexistem estudos para história recente brasileira acerca dos impactos dos imigrantes no mercado de trabalho, em especial, sobre o salário e o nível de emprego dos nativos. Com esse panorama em mente, os estudos realizados nesta tese visam dar os primeiros passos na investigação desse tema. O presente trabalho é composto por quatro capítulos, os quais examinam diferentes questões associadas aos efeitos da imigração no mercado de trabalho brasileiro. O primeiro capítulo motiva o tema da imigração no Brasil e, através de uma metodologia estrutural baseada no arcabouço da função CES multi-nível, simula o efeito na estrutura salarial em resposta a influxos imigratórios estipulados para o ano de 2010, data do último Censo Demográfico. Em particular, calcula-se que o impacto salarial médio decorrente de um influxo estipulado de 549 mil imigrantes, mesma magnitude do observado entre dezembro de 2010 e dezembro de 2011, estaria situado em torno de -0.25%. O segundo capítulo estima o grau de substituição entre imigrantes e nativos do mesmo grupo de habilidade e testa a hipótese de substituição perfeita suportada empiricamente por Borjas et al. (2012, 2008) e adotada no capítulo anterior. A metodologia empregada fundamenta-se no arcabouço estrutural desenvolvido em Manacorda et al. (2012) e Ottaviano & Peri (2012), o qual acrescenta um nível extra na função de produção CES multi-nível de Borjas (2003). As elasticidades de substituição estimadas sob diversas especificações variam entre 9 e 23, resultados que fortalecem a tese de substituição imperfeita preconizada por Card (2012). O terceiro capítulo estima dois tipos de elasticidades relacionadas ao impacto dos imigrantes sobre o rendimento do trabalho nativo através de uma metodologia alternativa baseada numa função de produção mais flexível e que não está sujeita a restrições tão austeras quanto a CES. As estimativas computadas para as elasticidades de substituição de Hicks subjacentes se situam entre 1.3 e 4.9, o que reforça as evidências de substituição imperfeita obtidas no Capítulo 2. Adicionalmente, os valores estimados para as elasticidades brutas dos salários dos nativos em relação às quantidades de imigrantes na produção são da ordem máxima de +-0.01. O quarto e último capítulo, por meio de uma metodologia fundamentada no arcabouço da função de custo Translog, examina como o nível de emprego dos nativos reage a alterações no custo do trabalho imigrante, uma questão que até o momento recebeu pouca atenção da literatura, conquanto apresente relevância para formulação de políticas imigratórias. Para todas as especificações de modelo e grupos de educação considerados, nossos resultados apontam que uma variação exógena no salário do imigrante produz apenas diminutos efeitos sobre o nível de emprego dos trabalhadores nativos brasileiros. Na maioria dos casos, não se pode rejeitar a hipótese de que nativo e imigrante não são nem p-complementares nem p-substitutos líquidos.

Optimal monetary policy under administered prices

This work aims to analyze the interaction and the effects of administered prices in the economy, through a DSGE model and the derivation of optimal monetary policies. The model used is a standard New Keynesian DSGE model of a closed economy with two sectors companies. In the first sector, free prices, there is a continuum of firms, and in the second sector of administered prices, there is a single firm. In addition, the model has positive trend inflation in the steady state. The model results suggest that price movements in any sector will impact on both sectors, for two reasons. Firstly, the price dispersion causes productivity to be lower. As the dispersion of prices is a change in the relative price of any sector, relative to general prices in the economy, when a movement in the price of a sector is not followed by another, their relative weights will change, leading to an impact on productivity in both sectors. Second, the path followed by the administered price sector is considered in future inflation expectations, which is used by companies in the free sector to adjust its optimal price. When this path leads to an expectation of higher inflation, the free sector companies will choose a higher mark-up to accommodate this expectation, thus leading to higher inflation trend when there is imperfect competition in the free sector. Finally, the analysis of optimal policies proved inconclusive, certainly indicating that there is influence of the adjustment model of administered prices in the definition of optimal monetary policy, but a quantitative study is needed to define the degree of impact.

Inattention in Individual Expectations

This paper investigates the expectations formation process of economic agents about infl ation rate. Using the Market Expectations System of Central Bank of Brazil, we perceive that agents do not update their forecasts every period and that even agents who update disagree in their predictions. We then focus on the two most popular types of inattention models that have been discussed in the recent literature: sticky-information and noisy-information models. Estimating a hybrid model we fi nd that, although formally fi tting the Brazilian data, it happens at the cost of a much higher degree of information rigidity than observed.

Legal enforcement, collateral and heterogeneity of project financing contracts

This paper employs mechanism design to study the effects of imperfect legal enforcement on optimal scale of projects, borrowing interest rates and the probability of default. The analysis departs from an environment that combines asymmetric information about cash flows and limited commitment by borrowers. Incentive for repayment comes from the possibility of liquidation of projects by a court, but courts are costly and may fail to liquidate. The value of liquidated assets can be used as collateral: it is transferred to the lender when courts liquidate. Examples reveal that costly use of courts may be optimal, which contrasts with results from most limited commitment models, where punishments are just threats, never applied in optimal arrangements. I show that when voluntary liquidation is allowed, both asymmetric information and uncertainty about courts are necessary conditions for legal punishments ever to be applied. Numerical solutions for several parametric specifications are presented, allowing for heterogeneity on initial wealth and variability of project returns. In all such solutions, wealthier individuals borrow with lower interest rates and run higher scale enterprises, which is consistent with stylized facts. The reliability of courts has a consistently positive effect on the scale of projects. However its effect on interest rates is subtler and depends essentially on the degree of curvature of the production function. Numerical results also show that the possibility of collateral seizing allows comovements of the interest rates and the probability of repayment.

A model of competition and interbank network formation

This work aims to understand the interaction between competition and network formation in the banking market. Combining Matutes and Padilla (1994) and Matutes and Vives (2000), we build a model of imperfect bank competition for deposits in which an interbank relationship network is a key strategic decision: it affects banks’ profit and risk position. The competition level exerts influence in the banking network structure since it affects the network outcomes. As result, we have that different competition levels imply different network topologies. Specifically, greater competition imply denser networks. Finally, when we allow for the possibility of collusion, the denser network can come out in the least competitive environment.

Separação cega de fontes lineares e não lineares usando algoritmo genético, redes neurais artificiais RBF e negentropia de Rényi como medida de independência

Conventional methods to solve the problem of blind source separation nonlinear, in general, using series of restrictions to obtain the solution, often leading to an imperfect separation of the original sources and high computational cost. In this paper, we propose an alternative measure of independence based on information theory and uses the tools of artificial intelligence to solve problems of blind source separation linear and nonlinear later. In the linear model applies genetic algorithms and Rényi of negentropy as a measure of independence to find a separation matrix from linear mixtures of signals using linear form of waves, audio and images. A comparison with two types of algorithms for Independent Component Analysis widespread in the literature. Subsequently, we use the same measure of independence, as the cost function in the genetic algorithm to recover source signals were mixed by nonlinear functions from an artificial neural network of radial base type. Genetic algorithms are powerful tools for global search, and therefore well suited for use in problems of blind source separation. Tests and analysis are through computer simulations

A expressão do condicionado contrafactual em construções se p, então q no português brasileiro

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

Structural and functional evidence that a B chromosome in the characid fish Astyanax scabripinnis is an isochromosome

Astyanax scabripinnis possesses a widespread polymorphism for metacentric B chromosomes as large as the largest chromosome pair in the A complement. on the basis of C-banding pattern, it was hypothesized that these B chromosomes are isochromosomes that have arisen by means of centromere misdivision and chromatid nondisjunction. In the present paper we test this hypothesis by analysing (i) the localization of a repetitive DNA sequence on both B chromosome arms, and (ii) synaptonemal complex formation, in order to test the functional homology of both arms. Genomic DNA digested with KpnI and analysed by gel electrophoresis showed fragments in a ladder-like pattern typical of tandemly repetitive DNA. These fragments were cloned and their tandem organization in the genome was confirmed. A 51-bp long consensus sequence, which was AT-rich (59%) and contained a variable region and two imperfect reverse sequences, was obtained. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) localized this repetitive DNA into noncentromeric constitutive heterochromatin which encompasses the terminal region of some acrocentric chromosomes, the NOR region, and interstitial polymorphic heterochromatin in chromosome 24. Most remarkably, tandem repeats were almost symmetrically placed in the two arms of the B chromosome, with the exception of two additional small clusters proximally located on the slightly longer arm. Synaptonemal complex (SC) analysis showed 26 completely paired SCs in males with 1B. The ring configuration of the B univalent persisting until metaphase I suggests that the two arms formed chiasmata. All these data provided strong support for the hypothesis that the B chromosome is an isochromosome.

O princípio metafísico da poética de Aristóteles

Aristotle's definition of tragedy indicates a metaphysical project insinuated by a notion of kátharsis. The reconstruction of Aristotle's method of definition is inspired in the concepts of enérgeia and dýnamis taken from Physics, understanding cause as substance. The Doctrine of the Four Causes is the theoretical basis of the definition of tragedy, placing tragedy in the genre of imitation and distinguishing its species: language (material cause), noble and complete action (formal cause), actors (efficient cause) and kátharsis (temporarily identified with the final cause). Nevertheless, there is no final cause in the definition of tragedy. The kátharsis of passions is experienced by the spectator when he witnesses tragedy, which is the imitation of a noble action, executed by actors and not narrated. Aristotle justifies hid proposition in favor of mimesis by assuming that imitation is natural to man since infancy and the view of objects allows whoever contemplates them to identify and learn the originals. As a metaphysical principle, kátharsis is projected to beyond definition of tragedy, where it is manifested cathartically, in the spectator. Research about the spectator brings one back to the definition of tragedy, where the imitation is an imperfect copy which evokes in the spectator the presence of the originals of the imitated sentiments, thus realizing the kátharsis of these emotions. In this way kátharsis reveals itself as selfknowledge and approach of divine truth and perfections.

Teoria cinética não extensiva: efeitos físicos em gases e plasmas

The standard kinetic theory for a nonrelativistic diluted gas is generalized in the spirit of the nonextensive statistic distribution introduced by Tsallis. The new formalism depends on an arbitrary q parameter measuring the degree of nonextensivity. In the limit q = 1, the extensive Maxwell-Boltzmann theory is recovered. Starting from a purely kinetic deduction of the velocity q-distribution function, the Boltzmann H-teorem is generalized for including the possibility of nonextensive out of equilibrium effects. Based on this investigation, it is proved that Tsallis' distribution is the necessary and sufficient condition defining a thermodynamic equilibrium state in the nonextensive context. This result follows naturally from the generalized transport equation and also from the extended H-theorem. Two physical applications of the nonextensive effects have been considered. Closed analytic expressions were obtained for the Doppler broadening of spectral lines from an excited gas, as well as, for the dispersion relations describing the eletrostatic oscillations in a diluted electronic plasma. In the later case, a comparison with the experimental results strongly suggests a Tsallis distribution with the q parameter smaller than unity. A complementary study is related to the thermodynamic behavior of a relativistic imperfect simple fluid. Using nonequilibrium thermodynamics, we show how the basic primary variables, namely: the energy momentum tensor, the particle and entropy fluxes depend on the several dissipative processes present in the fluid. The temperature variation law for this moving imperfect fluid is also obtained, and the Eckart and Landau-Lifshitz formulations are recovered as particular cases

Efeito da irrigação sobre o potencial fisiológico de sementes de soja em semeadura de inverno

Período seco e temperaturas amenas são condições climáticas ideais durante a maturação e colheita de sementes de soja. O objetivo foi verificar o efeito da irrigação no período pós-maturidade fisiológica, sobre o potencial fisiológico de sementes de soja semeadas no inverno. A disposição dos tratamentos seguiu esquema fatorial envolvendo três cultivares (IAC-19, Conquista e IAC 8-2) e duas épocas de interrupção da irrigação (início do estádio R7 e irrigação até 14 dias após R8). Foram feitas amostragens (colheitas) no início do estádio R7, 3, 7, 10, 14 (estádio R8) e 28 dias após o início do estádio R7. Para as avaliações utilizaram-se os testes de germinação, de envelhecimento acelerado e de condutividade elétrica e determinou-se a porcentagem de sementes manchadas e defeituosas. Nas condições em que foi realizado o experimento, concluiu-se que a irrigação após o estádio R7 não compromete e pode até melhorar o potencial fisiológico das sementes produzidas; a produção de sementes de soja em semeadura de inverno é possível em função de condições climáticas favoráveis.

The Interval Constructor on classes of ML-algebras

Monoidal logic, ML for short, which formalized the fuzzy logics of continuous t-norms and their residua, has arisen great interest, since it has been applied to fuzzy mathematics, artificial intelligence, and other areas. It is clear that fuzzy logics basically try to represent imperfect or fuzzy information aiming to model the natural human reasoning. On the other hand, in order to deal with imprecision in the computational representation of real numbers, the use of intervals have been proposed, as it can guarantee that the results of numerical computation are in a bounded interval, controlling, in this way, the numerical errors produced by successive roundings. There are several ways to connect both areas; the most usual one is to consider interval membership degrees. The algebraic counterpart of ML is ML-algebra, an interesting structure due to the fact that by adding some properties it is possible to reach different classes of residuated lattices. We propose to apply an interval constructor to ML-algebras and some of their subclasses, to verify some properties within these algebras, in addition to the analysis of the algebraic aspects of them

Cytokine production in experimental paracoccidioidomycosis of murine selected lineages for acute inflammatory response (air)

Paracoccidioidomycosis is a systemic human mycosis caused by Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (P. brasiliensis), an imperfect dimorphic fungus whose conidia are its infective form. Mice genetically selected for maximum (AIRmax) and minimum (AIRmin) acute inflammatory response were used as experimental paracoccidioidomycosis models. The animals were intraperitoneally inoculated with P. brasiliensis (strain 18) and killed 6, 12 and 24 hours or 3, 7 and 14 days after infection. In these periods, fragments from their spleen, liver and lung were removed for evaluation of the infection level by fungal cells, assessment of macrophagic activity by peritoneal and splenic macrophages - through the determination of nitric oxide (NO) concentrations and production of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines of lung and spleen homogenate supernatants. In the present study, it was observed that AIRmax lineages presented greater control of the infectious process than the AIRmin ones. Regarding NO production, AIRmax animals produced more metabolites in late periods, what may help control the infectious process. Concerning cytokine production, it was observed that the production of INF-gamma, TNF-alpha, IL-1, IL-6, IL-8 and IL-12 were increased in AIRmax lineages in most analyzed organs and periods, thus contributing to the greater resistance exhibited by such lineages against infection, except for IL-4 and IL-10 that showed decreased production in AIRmax lineage, reproducing its suppressive biological effect. From these results, it was observed that the AIRmax lineage was more effective in controlling the infectious process, with an important involvement of the analyzed cytokines. These findings are probably related to the genetically selected factors involved in the acute inflammatory response.

Competitive release and area effects

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)