Strategic Analysis: A key factor in developing horticultural supply chains in transitional Asian economies

Globalisation is set to have a major impact on world horticultural production and distribution of fruit and vegetables throughout the world. In contrast to developing countries such as China, production and consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables in most developed countries is relatively static. For developed countries, we are starting to see consolidation in the number of farms producing fruit and vegetables with falling or static prices and real farm incomes. Global supply chains are now dominated by a few large multi-national retailers supplied by preferred trans-national distribution companies. The major competitive advantages that are emerging are consistency of supply of high quality product over an extended season and the control of genetic resources and their marketing. To capture these new competitive advantages, new strategic analyses and planning processes must be implemented. In the past, strategic analyses and planning has been undertaken on an ad hoc basis without accurate global intelligence. In the future, working ‘on the supply chain’ will become equally, if not more important, than working ‘in the supply chain’. A revised approach to strategic planning, which encompasses and adjusts for the changes caused by globalisation, is urgently needed. A new 6-step strategic analyses process is described.

Assessment of transit quality of service with occupancy load factor and passenger travel time measures

This paper investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

DNA structural variability as a factor in gene expression and evolution

Redundant DNA can buffer sequence dependent structural deviations from an ideal double helix. Buffering serves a mechanistic function by reducing extraneous conformational effects which could interfere with readout or which would impose energetic constraints on evolution. It also serves an evolutionary function by allowing for gradual variations in conformation-dependent regulation of gene expression. Such gradualism is critical for the rate of evolution. The buffer structure concept provides a new interpretation for repetitive DNA and for exons and introns.

On the moderators of trait avoidance motivation in predicting cognitive biases and adjustment

The present research focused on motivational and personality traits measuring individual differences in the experience of negative affect, in reactivity to negative events, and in the tendency to avoid threats. In this thesis, such traits (i.e., neuroticism and dispositional avoidance motivation) are jointly referred to as trait avoidance motivation. The seven studies presented here examined the moderators of such traits in predicting risk judgments, negatively biased processing, and adjustment. Given that trait avoidance motivation encompasses reactivity to negative events and tendency to avoid threats, it can be considered surprising that this trait does not seem to be related to risk judgments and that it seems to be inconsistently related to negatively biased information processing. Previous work thus suggests that some variable(s) moderate these relations. Furthermore, recent research has suggested that despite the close connection between trait avoidance motivation and (mal)adjustment, measures of cognitive performance may moderate this connection. However, it is unclear whether this moderation is due to different response processes between individuals with different cognitive tendencies or abilities, or to the genuinely buffering effect of high cognitive ability against the negative consequences of high trait avoidance motivation. Studies 1-3 showed that there is a modest direct relation between trait avoidance motivation and risk judgments, but studies 2-3 demonstrated that state motivation moderates this relation. In particular, individuals in an avoidance state made high risk judgments regardless of their level of trait avoidance motivation. This result explained the disparity between the theoretical conceptualization of avoidance motivation and the results of previous studies suggesting that the relation between trait avoidance motivation and risk judgments is weak or nonexistent. Studies 5-6 examined threat identification tendency as a moderator for the relationship between trait avoidance motivation and negatively biased processing. However, no evidence for such moderation was found. Furthermore, in line with previous work, the results of studies 5-6 suggested that trait avoidance motivation is inconsistently related to negatively biased processing, implying that theories concerning traits and information processing may need refining. Study 7 examined cognitive ability as a moderator for the relation between trait avoidance motivation and adjustment, and demonstrated that cognitive ability moderates the relation between trait avoidance motivation and indicators of both self-reported and objectively measured adjustment. Thus, the results of Study 7 supported the buffer explanation for the moderating influence of cognitive performance. To summarize, the results showed that it is possible to find factors that consistently moderate the relations between traits and important outcomes (e.g. adjustment). Identifying such factors and studying their interplay with traits is one of the most important goals of current personality research. The present thesis contributed to this line of work in relation to trait avoidance motivation.

The accuracy of varietal selection using factor analytic models for multi-environment plant breeding trials

Modeling of cultivar x trial effects for multienvironment trials (METs) within a mixed model framework is now common practice in many plant breeding programs. The factor analytic (FA) model is a parsimonious form used to approximate the fully unstructured form of the genetic variance-covariance matrix in the model for MET data. In this study, we demonstrate that the FA model is generally the model of best fit across a range of data sets taken from early generation trials in a breeding program. In addition, we demonstrate the superiority of the FA model in achieving the most common aim of METs, namely the selection of superior genotypes. Selection is achieved using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of cultivar effects at each environment, considered either individually or as a weighted average across environments. In practice, empirical BLUPs (E-BLUPs) of cultivar effects must be used instead of BLUPs since variance parameters in the model must be estimated rather than assumed known. While the optimal properties of minimum mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) and maximum correlation between true and predicted effects possessed by BLUPs do not hold for E-BLUPs, a simulation study shows that E-BLUPs perform well in terms of MSEP.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Impulsivity, health-related behaviour and disease : A prospective study

In clinical settings impulsivity refers to a symptom of psychiatric disorder, but nonclinically oriented research treats impulsivity as a personality and temperament dimension. This prospective study examined whether impulsivity predicts adverse health-related behaviour and increased risk of health problems in a large, nonclinical sample of 5433 subjects working in 12 Finnish hospitals. The data were collected using two questionnaire surveys at a 2-year interval. After controlling for alcohol use at baseline, higher impulsivity predicted increased alcohol consumption at follow-up in both genders (p < .01) and was associated with increased likelihood of becoming a heavy drinker or taking up smoking (p < .05). Impulsivity also predicted an increased number of cigarettes smoked per day in the follow-up among women (p < .001), but not among men, although adjustment for the number of cigarettes smoked at baseline attenuated these associations (p = .08 for women). In men, higher impulsivity was associated with shorter sleep duration and waking up several times per night independent of baseline characteristics (p < .01), whereas in women, higher impulsivity predicted difficulty in falling asleep and waking up feeling tired after the usual amount of sleep (p < .05). In women, these associations became nonsignificant after adjustment for pre-existing somatic and psychiatric diseases. Finally, higher impulsivity was associated with an increased 2-year incidence of physician-diagnosed peptic ulcer disease (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21 - 4.82) and onset of depression (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.28 - 2.97) after adjustment for a variety of baseline covariates. In conclusion, this study shows that in a nonclinical population, impulsivity appears to be a risk factor for various unhealthy behaviour and health problems.

Pressure sensitive flow and constraint factor in amorphous materials below glass transition

The constraint factor, C (given by the hardness-yield strength ratio H/Y in the fully lastic regime of indentation), in metallic glasses, is greater than three, a reflection of the sensitivity of their plastic flow to pressure. Furthermore, C increases with increasing temperature. In this work, we examine if this is true in amorphous polymers as well, through experiments on amorphous poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA). Uniaxial compression as well as spherical indentation tests were conducted in the 248-348 K range to construct H/Y versus indentation strain plots at each temperature and obtain the C-values. Results show that C increases with temperature in PMMA as well. Good correlation between the loss factors, measured using a dynamic mechanical analyzer, and C, suggest that the enhanced sensitivity to pressure is possibly due to beta-relaxation. We offer possible mechanistic reasons for the observed trends in amorphous materials in terms of relaxation processes.

Bearing capacity factor N-c under phi=0 condition for piles in clays

Bearing capacity factor N-c for axially loaded piles in clays whose cohesion increases linearly with depth has been estimated numerically under undrained (phi=0) condition. The Study follows the lower bound limit analysis in conjunction With finite elements and linear programming. A new formulation is proposed for solving an axisymmetric geotechnical stability problem. The variation of N-c with embedment ratio is obtained for several rates of the increase of soil cohesion with depth; a special case is also examined when the pile base was placed on the stiff clay stratum overlaid by a soft clay layer. It was noticed that the magnitude of N-c reaches almost a constant value for embedment ratio greater than unity. The roughness of the pile base and shaft affects marginally the magnitudes of N-c. The results obtained from the present study are found to compare quite well with the different numerical solutions reported in the literature.

Improved bounds on the radius and curvature of the K pi scalar form factor and implications to low-energy theorems

We obtain stringent bounds in the < r(2)>(K pi)(S)-c plane where these are the scalar radius and the curvature parameters of the scalar K pi form factor, respectively, using analyticity and dispersion relation constraints, the knowledge of the form factor from the well-known Callan-Treiman point m(K)(2)-m(pi)(2), as well as at m(pi)(2)-m(K)(2), which we call the second Callan-Treiman point. The central values of these parameters from a recent determination are accomodated in the allowed region provided the higher loop corrections to the value of th form factor at the second Callan-Treiman point reduce the one-loop result by about 3% with F-K/F-pi = 1.21. Such a variation in magnitude at the second Callan-Treiman point yields 0.12 fm(2) less than or similar to < r(2)>(K pi)(S) less than or similar to 0.21 fm(2) and 0.56 GeV-4 less than or similar to c less than or similar to 1.47 GeV-4 and a strong correlation between them. A smaller value of F-K/F-pi shifts both bounds to lower values.

New constraints on the pion EM form factor using Pi `(-Q(2))

We study the constraints arising on the expansion parameters c and d of the pion electromagnetic form factor from the inclusion of pure spacelike data and the phase of timelike data along with one spacelike datum, using as input the first derivative of the QCD polarization amplitude Pi'(-Q(2)). These constraints when combined with other analyses, provide a valuable check on a determination of c due to Guo et al. and on our previous work where pionic contribution to the (g - 2) of the muon was used as the input. This work further illustrates the power of analyticity techniques in form factor analysis.

Constant factor incremental delta modulator

This paper presents a new algorithm for the step-size change of instantaneous adaptive delta modulator. The present strategy is such that the step-size at any sampling instant can increase or decrease by either of the two constant factors or can remain the same, depending upon the combination of three or four most recent output bits. The quantizer has been simulated on a digital computer, and its performance compared with other quantizers. The figure of merit used is the SNR with gaussian signals as the input. The results indicate that the new design can give an improved SNR over a wider dynamic range and fast response to step inputs, as compared to the earlier systems.