Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.

Collocating satellite-based radar and radiometer measurements — methodology and usage examples

Collocations between two satellite sensors are occasions where both sensors observe the same place at roughly the same time. We study collocations between the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) on-board NOAA-18 and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on-board CloudSat. First, a simple method is presented to obtain those collocations and this method is compared with a more complicated approach found in literature. We present the statistical properties of the collocations, with particular attention to the effects of the differences in footprint size. For 2007, we find approximately two and a half million MHS measurements with CPR pixels close to their centrepoints. Most of those collocations contain at least ten CloudSat pixels and image relatively homogeneous scenes. In the second part, we present three possible applications for the collocations. Firstly, we use the collocations to validate an operational Ice Water Path (IWP) product from MHS measurements, produced by the National Environment Satellite, Data and Information System (NESDIS) in the Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS). IWP values from the CloudSat CPR are found to be significantly larger than those from the MSPPS. Secondly, we compare the relation between IWP and MHS channel 5 (190.311 GHz) brightness temperature for two datasets: the collocated dataset, and an artificial dataset. We find a larger variability in the collocated dataset. Finally, we use the collocations to train an Artificial Neural Network and describe how we can use it to develop a new MHS-based IWP product. We also study the effect of adding measurements from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), channels 8 (11.11 μm) and 11 (8.33 μm). This shows a small improvement in the retrieval quality. The collocations described in the article are available for public use.

Equicrestal and Subcrestal Dental Implants: A Histologic and Histomorphometric Evaluation of Nine Retrieved Human Implants

Background: Stability of pen-implant crestal bone plays a relevant role relative to the presence or absence of interdental papilla. Several factors can contribute to the crestal bone resorption observed around two-piece implants, such as the presence of a microgap at the level of the implant abutment junction, the type of connection between implant and prosthetic components, the implant positioning relative to the alveolar crest, and the interimplant distance. Subcrestal positioning of dental implants has been proposed to decrease the risk of exposure of the metal of the top of the implant or of the abutment margin, and to get enough space in a vertical dimension to create a harmoniously esthetic emergence profile. Methods: The present retrospective histologic study was performed to evaluate dental implants retrieved from human jaws that had been inserted in an equicrestal or subcrestal position. A total of nine implants were evaluated: five of these had been inserted in an equicrestal position, whereas the other four had been positioned subcrestally (1 to 3 mm). Results: In all subcrestally placed implants, preexisting and newly formed bone was found over the implant shoulder. In the equicrestal implants, crestal bone resorption (0.5 to 1.5 mm) was present around all implants. Conclusion: The subcrestal position of the implants resulted in bone located above the implant shoulder. J Periodontol 2011;82:708-715.

Sympathetic nerve activity is decreased during device-guided slow breathing

It is known that slow breathing (<10 breaths min(-1)) reduces blood pressure ( BP), but the mechanisms involved in this phenomenon are not completely clear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the acute responses of the muscle sympathetic nerve activity, BP and heart rate (HR), using device-guided slow breathing ( breathe with interactive music (BIM)) or calm music. In all, 27 treated mild hypertensives were enrolled. Muscle sympathetic nerve activity, BP and HR were measured for 5min before the use of the device (n=14) or while subjects listened to calm music (n=13), it was measured again for 15 min while in use and finally, 5min after the interventions. BIM device reduced respiratory rate from 16 +/- 3 beats per minute (b.p.m) to 5.5 +/- 1.8 b.p.m (P<0.05), calm music did not affect this variable. Both interventions reduced systolic (-6 and -4mmHg for both) and diastolic BPs (-4mmHg and -3mmHg, respectively) and did not affect the HR (-1 and -2 b.p.m respectively). Only the BIM device reduced the sympathetic nerve activity of the sample (-8bursts min(-1)). In conclusion, both device-guided slow breathing and listening to calm music have decreased BP but only the device-guided slow breathing was able to reduce the peripheral sympathetic nerve activity. Hypertension Research ( 2010) 33, 708-712; doi: 10.1038/hr.2010.74; published online 3 June 2010

TICK INNATE IMMUNITY

Ticks are blood feeding parasites transmitting a wide variety of pathogens to their vertebrate hosts. The vector competence of ticks is tightly linked with their immune system. Despite its importance, our knowledge of tick innate immunity is still inadequate and the limited number of sufficiently characterized immune molecules and cellular reactions are dispersed across numerous tick species. The phagocytosis of microbes by tick hemocytes seems to be coupled with a primitive complement-like system, which possibly involves self/nonself recognition by fibrinogen-related lectins and the action of thioester-containing proteins. Ticks do not seem to possess a pro-phenoloxidase system leading to melanization and also coagulation of tick hemolymph has not been experimentally proven. They are capable of defending themselves against microbial infection with a variety of antimicrobial peptides comprising lysozymes, defensins and molecules not found in other invertebrates. Virtually nothing is known about the signaling cascades involved in the regulation of tick antimicrobial immune responses. Midgut immunity is apparently the decisive factor of tick vector competence. The gut content is a hostile environment for ingested microbes, which is mainly due to the antimicrobial activity of hemoglobin fragments generated by the digestion of the host blood as well as other antimicrobial peptides. Reactive oxygen species possibly also play an important role in the tick-pathogen interaction. The recent release of the Ixodes scapularis genome and the feasibility of RNA interference in ticks promise imminent and substantial progress in tick innate immunity research.

Effect of endurance training upon lipid metabolism in the liver of cachectic tumour-bearing rats

The syndrome of cancer cachexia is accompanied by several alterations in lipid metabolism, and the liver is markedly affected. Previous Studies showed that moderate exercise training may prevent liver fill accumulation through diminished delivery of lipids to the liver, increased hepatic oxidation and increased incorporation of triacylglycerol (TAG) into very low density lipoprotein (VLDL). Our aim was to examine the influence of moderate intensity training (8 weeks) upon TAG content, VLDL assembly and secretion, apolipoprotein B (apoB) and microsomal transfer protein (MTP) gene expression in the liver of cachectic tumour-bearing rats. Animals were randomly assigned to a sedentary control (SC), sedentary tumour-bearing (ST) or exercise-trained control (EC) or to all exercise trained tumour-bearing (ET) group. Trained rats ran on a treadmill (60% VO2max) for 60 min day(-1), 5 day week(-1), for 8 weeks. TAG content and the rate of VLDL secretion (followed for 3 h), its well its mRNA expression of apoB and MTP, and total cholesterol, VLDL-TAG, VLDL-cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-cholesterol) and tumor weight were evaluated. VLDL-cholesterol showed a decrease in ST (p < 0.05) in relation to SC. Serum TAG, VLDL-TAG and tissue TAG content were all increased in ST (p < 0.01), when compared with SC. ST showed a lower rate of VLDL secretion (p < 0.05) and reduced expression of apoB (p < 0.001) and MTP (p < 0.001), when compared with SC. These parameters were restored to control values (p < 0.05) when the animals were submitted to the exercise training protocol. Tumour weight decreased 10-fold after training (p < 0.001). It is possible to affirm, therefore, that endurance training promoted the re-establishment of lipid metabolism in cachectic tumour-bearing animals, especially in relation to VLDL secretion and assembly. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The 3-colored Ramsey number of even cycles

Denote by R(L, L, L) the minimum integer N such that any 3-coloring of the edges of the complete graph on N vertices contains a monochromatic copy of a graph L. Bondy and Erdos conjectured that when L is the cycle C(n) on n vertices, R(C(n), C(n), C(n)) = 4n - 3 for every odd n > 3. Luczak proved that if n is odd, then R(C(n), C(n), C(n)) = 4n + o(n), as n -> infinity, and Kohayakawa, Simonovits and Skokan confirmed the Bondy-Erdos conjecture for all sufficiently large values of n. Figaj and Luczak determined an asymptotic result for the `complementary` case where the cycles are even: they showed that for even n, we have R(C(n), C(n), C(n)) = 2n + o(n), as n -> infinity. In this paper, we prove that there exists n I such that for every even n >= n(1), R(C(n), C(n), C(n)) = 2n. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aromatic nitro substitution reaction between 4-nitro-N-n-butyl-1,8-naphthalimide and n-heptanethiol in water-methanol binary mixtures

The second-order rate constants of thiolysis by n-heptanethiol on 4-nitro-N-n-butyl-1,8-naphthalimide (4NBN) are strongly affected by the water-methanol binary mixture composition reaching its maximum at around 50% mole fraction. In parallel solvent effects on 4NBN absorption molar extinction coefficient also shows a maximum at this composition region. From the spectroscopic study of reactant and product and the known H-bond capacity of the mixture a rationalization that involves specific solvent H-donor interaction with the nitro group is proposed to explain the kinetic data. Present findings also show a convenient methodology to obtain strongly fluorescent imides, valuable for peptide and analogs labeling as well as for thio-naphthalimide derivatives preparations. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk of recurrent stroke and death after first stroke in long-distance ski race participants

Background: Physical activity is of benefit for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases, but it appears to increase the risk for atrial fibrillation. We aimed to study a cohort of patients following a first stroke in individuals with previous high physical activity, compare them to the general population with respect to recurrent stroke and death, and relate these to atrial fibrillation. Methods and results: From the participants of the Vasaloppet, the world's largest ski-race, and matched individuals from the general population (n=708 604), we identified 5964 patients hospitalized with a first-time stroke between 1994 and 2010. Individuals with severe diseases were excluded. One half percent of skiers and 1% of nonskiers were hospitalized due to stroke. The incidence rate was 8.3 per 100 person-years among skiers and 11.1 among nonskiers. The hazard ratio (HR) for recurrent stroke or death between the 2 groups was 0.76 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.86). The result was consistent in subgroups. The HR for death was 0.66 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.78) and for recurrent stroke 0.82 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.96). After adjustment for smoking and socioeconomic factors, the HR for death was consistent at 0.70 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.87) while the HR for recurrent stroke was not statistically significant. Outcomes for skiers with atrial fibrillation tended to show a lower risk than for nonskiers. Conclusions: This large cohort study supports the hypothesis that patients with a stroke and with prior regular physical activity have a lower risk of death, while their risk for recurrent stroke is similar to that of nonskiers. The skiers had a higher incidence of atrial fibrillation, but still no increased risk of recurring stroke.

On the welfare costs of business cycles in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research, that the welfare cost of business cycles are relatively small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a reasonable reduced form for consumption, we computed these welfare costs for the pre- and post-WWII era, using three alternative trend-cycle decomposition methods. The post-WWII period is very era this basic result is dramatically altered. For the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition, and reasonable preference parameter and discount values, we get a compensation of about 5% of consumption, which is by all means a sizable welfare cost (about US$ 1,000.00 a year).

Globalization and the Industrial Revolution

This paper argues that trade specialization played an indispensable role in supporting the Industrial Revolution, allowing the economy to shift resources to the manufacture without facing food and raw materials shortage. In our arti cial economy, there are two sectors agriculture and manufacture and the economy is initially closed and under a Malthusian trap. In this economy the industrial revolution entails a transition towards a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin economy. The model reproduces the main stylized facts of the transition to modern growth and globalization. We show that two-sectors closed-economy models cannot explain the fall in the value of land relative to wages observed in the 19th century and that the transition in this case is much longer than that observed allowing for trade.