Demand forecasting process design and methods in medium sized enterprise

The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes and management of demand. In literature review were different processes found and forecasting methods and techniques interviewed. Also role of bullwhip effect in supply chain was identified and how to manage it with information sharing operations. In the empirical part of study is at first described current situation and challenges in case company. After that will new way to handle demand introduced with target budget creation and how information sharing with 5 products and a few customers would bring benefits to company. Also the new S&OP process created within this study and organization for it.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Quantitative analysis of nodal prices in the New Zealand Electricity Spot Market

Time series of hourly electricity spot prices have peculiar properties. Electricity is by its nature difficult to store and has to be available on demand. There are many reasons for wanting to understand correlations in price movements, e.g. risk management purposes. The entire analysis carried out in this thesis has been applied to the New Zealand nodal electricity prices: offer prices (from 29 May 2002 to 31 March 2009) and final prices (from 1 January 1999 to 31 March 2009). In this paper, such natural factors as location of the node and generation type in the node that effects the correlation between nodal prices have been reviewed. It was noticed that the geographical factor affects the correlation between nodes more than others. Therefore, the visualisation of correlated nodes was done. However, for the offer prices the clear separation of correlated and not correlated nodes was not obtained. Finally, it was concluded that location factor most strongly affects correlation of electricity nodal prices; problems in visualisation probably associated with power losses when the power is transmitted over long distance.

Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.

Westerners in search of the legendary potion : ayahuasca travel in the borderland between tourism and pilgrimage

The thesis examines the phenomenon most commonly known as “ayahuasca tourism” – i.e. the practice of westerners traveling to South America and partaking in ceremonies in which a powerful entheogenic brew, ayahuasca, is consumed. While this popular phenomenon has been steadily increasing during the last decades, it has, however, been insufficiently studied by scholars. An important question which has not been properly addressed in earlier studies is how ayahuasca tourism relates to the wider occurrence of travel and how it should be perceived with reference to the theoretical frameworks on the subject of travel. Drawing on theories regarding pilgrimage and tourism, the main purpose of this thesis is to examine the relationship between ayahuasca tourism and the broader spectrum of travel. In particular, the study tests the designations “pilgrimage”, “religious tourism” and “spiritual tourism” with reference to ayahuasca tourism. Utilizing earlier literature as well as ayahuasca tourists‟ reports obtained from an Internet forum as a basis for analysis, I search for a suitable terminology to be used for the phenomenon. The study lays special emphasis on the protagonists‟ motivations, experiences and outcomes in order to take note of various aspects of the wide-ranging occurrence of ayahuasca tourism. Key findings indicate that ayahuasca tourism is best understood as a combination of pilgrimage and tourism. On the basis of the analysis I argue that ayahuasca tourism should be labeled as “pilgrimage” and/or “spiritual tourism”, and the tourists respectively as “pilgrims” and/or “spiritual tourists”. The category of “religious tourism/tourist”, on the other hand, turns out to be an inappropriate designation when describing the phenomenon. In general, through my study I show that the results are consistent with the present trend in the study of travel to perceive pilgrimage and tourism as theoretically similar phenomena. The study of ayahuasca tourism serves thus as living proof of contemporary travel, in which the categories of pilgrimage and tourism are often indistinguishable. I suggest that ayahuasca tourism is by no means exceptional on this point, but can rather be used as an illustration of modern travel forms on a general level. Thus, the present study does not only add to the research of ayahuasca tourism, but also provides additional insights into the study of travel.

Development of project cash flow forecasting process

Process management refers to improving the key functions of a company. The main functions of the case company - project management, procurement, finance, and human resource - use their own separate systems. The case company is in the process of changing its software. Different functions will use the same system in the future. This software change causes changes in some of the company’s processes. Project cash flow forecasting process is one of the changing processes. Cash flow forecasting ensures the sufficiency of money and prepares for possible changes in the future. This will help to ensure the company’s viability. The purpose of the research is to describe a new project cash flow forecasting process. In addition, the aim is to analyze the impacts of the process change, with regard to the project control department’s workload and resources through the process measurement, and how the impacts take the department’s future operations into account. The research is based on process management. Processes, their descriptions, and the way the process management uses the information, are discussed in the theory part of this research. The theory part is based on literature and articles. Project cash flow and forecasting-related benefits are also discussed. After this, the project cash flow forecasting as-is and to-be processes are described by utilizing information, obtained from the theoretical part, as well as the know-how of the project control department’s personnel. Written descriptions and cross-functional flowcharts are used for descriptions. Process measurement is based on interviews with the personnel – mainly cost controllers and department managers. The process change and the integration of two processes will allow work time for other things, for example, analysis of costs. In addition to the quality of the cash flow information will improve compared to the as-is process. Analyzing the department’s other main processes, department’s roles, and their responsibilities should be checked and redesigned. This way, there will be an opportunity to achieve the best possible efficiency and cost savings.

Accuracy in book papers' sales forecasting

The main objective of this thesis was to study if the quantitative sales forecasting methods will enhance the accuracy of the sales forecast in comparison to qualitative sales forecasting method. A literature review in the field of forecasting was conducted, including general sales forecasting process, forecasting methods and techniques and forecasting accuracy measurement. In the empirical part of the study the accuracy of the forecasts provided by both qualitative and quantitative methods is being studied and compared in the case of short, medium and long term forecasts. The SAS® Forecast Server –tool was used in creating the quantitative forecasts.

User Experience of Geocaching and Its Application to Tourism and Education

Advances in technology have provided new ways of using entertainment and game technology to foster human interaction. Games and playing with games have always been an important part of people’s everyday lives. Traditionally, human-computer interaction (HCI) research was seen as a psychological cognitive science focused on human factors, with engineering sciences as the computer science part of it. Although cognitive science has made significant progress over the past decade, the influence of people’s emotions on design networks is increasingly important, especially when the primary goal is to challenge and entertain users (Norman 2002). Game developers have explored the key issues in game design and identified that the driving force in the success of games is user experience. User-centered design integrates knowledge of users’ activity practices, needs, and preferences into the design process. Geocaching is a location-based treasure hunt game created by a community of players. Players use GPS (Global Position System) technology to find “treasures” and create their own geocaches; the game can be developed when the players invent caches and used more imagination to creations the caches. This doctoral dissertation explores user experience of geocaching and its applications in tourism and education. Globally, based on the Geocaching.com webpage, geocaching has been played about 180 countries and there are more than 10 million registered geocachers worldwide (Geocaching.com, 25.11.2014). This dissertation develops and presents an interaction model called the GameFlow Experience model that can be used to support the design of treasure hunt applications in tourism and education contexts. The GameFlow Model presents and clarifies various experiences; it provides such experiences in a real-life context, offers desirable design targets to be utilized in service design, and offers a perspective to consider when evaluating the success of adventure game concepts. User-centered game designs have adapted to human factor research in mainstream computing science. For many years, the user-centered design approach has been the most important research field in software development. Research has been focusing on user-centered design in software development such as office programs, but the same ideas and theories that will reflect the needs of a user-centered research are now also being applied to game design (Charles et al. 2005.) For several years, we have seen a growing interest in user experience design. Digital games are experience providers, and game developers need tools to better understand the user experience related to products and services they have created. This thesis aims to present what the user experience is in geocaching and treasure hunt games and how it can be used to develop new concepts for the treasure hunt. Engineers, designers, and researchers should have a clear understanding of what user experience is, what its parts are, and most importantly, how we can influence user satisfaction. In addition, we need to understand how users interact with electronic products and people, and how different elements synergize their experiences. This doctoral dissertation represents pioneering work on the user experience of geocaching and treasure hunt games in the context of tourism and education. The research also provides a model for game developers who are planning treasure hunt concepts.

A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.