Visionary Portrait.

The expressionist head of a young man emerges from the dark shadows. His face is a long oval, with full lips and strongly flared nostrils, framed by black hair and small black beard.

Creative writing: Literature review and evidence-based research

There is growing evidence, especially in the USA and UK, that creative writing can form an important part of the recovery experience of people affected by severe mental illness. In this chapter, I consider theoretical models that explain how creative writing might contribute to recovery, and discuss the potential for creative writing in psychosocial rehabilitation. It is argued that the rehabilitation benefits of creative writing might be optimized through focus on process and technique in writing, rather than expression or content alone, and that consequently, the involvement of professional writers might be important. I will explore the recent history of theoretical frameworks and explanatory models that link creative writing and recovery, and examine such empirical evidence as is available on the contribution of creative writing to recovery from severe mental illness.

Traversing the space between threats and violence: A review of threat assessment guidelines

While the majority of violent threats – defined as an expression of intent to do harm or act out violently against someone or something – do not progress to actual violence, a small proportion of threateners do go on to enact violence. Most researchers argue that violence risk assessments are inadequate for assessing threats of violence, which raises the question: how should a threat assessment (TA) be conducted? To begin to understand available frameworks for assessing threats, a systematic review of TA research literature was conducted. Most TA literature pertains to a specific domain (schools, public figure threats, workplaces) and target audience (clinicians, school personnel, law enforcement). TA guidelines are typically based on literature reviews with some based on empirical measures and others having no strong evidential basis. The most common concepts in TA are exploration of the threatener's mental health, the motivation for the threat and the presence of any plans. Rather than advocating for the development of a protocol for conducting TA, this article outlines the common areas of inquiry in assessing threats and highlights the limitations of current TA guidelines.

Origins of the sex differences in handedness and mental rotation ability : genetic, environmental and hormonal effects

In humans, well-replicated and robust sex differences in cognitive functions exist for handedness and mental rotation ability. A common characteristic in human cognitive functions is the lateralization of language functions. Handedness is a common measure of laterality and is related to language lateralization. The prevalence of left-handedness is higher in males than in females, the male to female ratio being about 1.2. Among cognitive abilities, the largest sex difference is evident in the Vandenberg and Kuse Mental Rotation Test (MRT), which requires the ability to rotate objects in mental space. On average, males achieve scores one standard deviation higher than females in the MRT. The present thesis investigated the origins of the sex differences in laterality and spatial ability as represented by handedness and mental rotation ability, respectively. Two population-based Finnish twin cohorts were utilized in this study. Handedness was studied in 25 810 twins and 4068 singletons born before 1958 from the Older Finnish Twin Cohort, and in 4736 twins born in 1983-87 from the FinnTwin12. MRT was studied in a sub-sample of 804 young adult participants from the FinnTwin12 sample. The main findings of this study were: 1) the prevalence of left-handedness was higher among males than among females in both singletons and in twins; 2) males had significantly higher scores than females in MRT; 3) about one quarter of the variance in handedness and about half of the variance in MRT was explained by genetic effects, whereas the remainder of the variance in these traits was explained by environmental effects unique to each individual. The magnitude of the genetic effects was similar in both sexes; 4) left-handedness was significantly less common in female co-twins of a male than in female co-twins of a female, and female co-twins of a male scored significantly higher than did female co-twins of a female in the Mental Rotation Test. This dissertation discusses whether these differences between females from opposite- and same-sex twin pairs are due to the prenatal transfer of testosterone from the male fetus in females with male co-twins or whether they arise from postnatal socialization effects.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Hostility: A prospective study of the genetic and environmental background and associations with cardiovascular risk

Hostility is a multidimensional construct having wide effects on society. In its different forms, hostility is related to a large array of social and health problems, such as criminality, substance abuse, depression, and cardiovascular risks. Identifying and tackling early-life factors that contribute to hostility may have public health significance. Although the variance in hostility is estimated to be 18-50 percent heritable, there are significant gaps in knowledge regarding the molecular genetics of hostility. It is known that a cold and unsupportive home atmosphere in childhood predicts a child s later hostility. However, the long-term effects of care-giving quality on hostility in adulthood and the role of genes in this association are unclear. The present dissertation is part of the ongoing population-based prospective Young Finns study, which commenced in 1980 with 3596 3-18-year-old boys and girls who were followed for 27 years. The specific aims of the dissertation were first to study the antecedents of hostility by looking at 1) the genetic background, 2) the early environmental predictors, and 3) the gene environment interplay behind hostility. As a second aim, the thesis endeavored to examine 4) the association between hostility and cardiovascular risks, and 5) the moderating effect of demographic factors, such as gender and socioeconomic status, on this association. The study found potential gene polymorphisms from chromosomes 7, 14, 17, and 22 suggestively associated with hostility. Of early environmental influences, breastfeeding and early care-giving were found to predict hostility in adulthood. In addition, a serotonin receptor 2A polymorphism rs6313 moderated the effect of early care-giving on later hostile attitudes. Furthermore, hostility was shown to predict cardiovascular risks, such as metabolic syndrome and inflammation. Finally, parental socioeconomic status was found to moderate the association between anger and early atherosclerosis. The new genetic and early environmental antecedents of hostility identified in this research may help in understanding the development of hostility and its health risks, and in planning appropriate prevention. The significance of early influences on this development is stressed. Although the markers studied are individual- and family-related factors, these may be influenced at the societal level by giving accurate information to all individuals concerned and by improving the societal circumstances.

Pricing credit derivatives

The financial crisis set off by the default of Lehman Brothers in 2008 leading to disastrous consequences for the global economy has focused attention on regulation and pricing issues related to credit derivatives. Credit risk refers to the potential losses that can arise due to the changes in the credit quality of financial instruments. These changes could be due to changes in the ratings, market price (spread) or default on contractual obligations. Credit derivatives are financial instruments designed to mitigate the adverse impact that may arise due to credit risks. However, they also allow the investors to take up purely speculative positions. In this article we provide a succinct introduction to the notions of credit risk, the credit derivatives market and describe some of the important credit derivative products. There are two approaches to pricing credit derivatives, namely the structural and the reduced form or intensity-based models. A crucial aspect of the modelling that we touch upon briefly in this article is the problem of calibration of these models. We hope to convey through this article the challenges that are inherent in credit risk modelling, the elegant mathematics and concepts that underlie some of the models and the importance of understanding the limitations of the models.

El problema del innatismo en Antonio Rosmini : (parte II)

Resumen: Esta parte del artículo repasa las principales teorías modernas sobre el innatismo, analizando sus puntos fuertes y débiles a partir de la teoría rosminiana de la presencia innata de la idea de ser. Se subraya la simplicidad de esta teoría, lo que le confiere un elevado carácter explicativo, en contraste con los dificultades que suscitan las filosofías de Descartes, Locke, Leibniz, Malebranche y Kant.

Strategic Interaction and Conventions

The scope of the paper is the literature that employs coordination games to study social norms and conventions from the viewpoint of game theory and cognitive psychology. We claim that those two alternative approaches are complementary, as they provide different insights to explain how people converge to a unique system of self-fulfilling expectations in presence of multiple, equally viable, conventions. While game theory explains the emergence of conventions relying on efficiency and risk considerations, the psychological view is more concerned with frame and labeling effects. The interaction between these alternative (and, sometimes, competing) effects leads to the result that coordination failures may well occur and, even when coordination takes place, there is no guarantee that the convention eventually established will be the most efficient.

Uncertainty increases pain: evidence for a novel mechanism of pain modulation involving the periaqueductal gray.

Predictions about sensory input exert a dominant effect on what we perceive, and this is particularly true for the experience of pain. However, it remains unclear what component of prediction, from an information-theoretic perspective, controls this effect. We used a vicarious pain observation paradigm to study how the underlying statistics of predictive information modulate experience. Subjects observed judgments that a group of people made to a painful thermal stimulus, before receiving the same stimulus themselves. We show that the mean observed rating exerted a strong assimilative effect on subjective pain. In addition, we show that observed uncertainty had a specific and potent hyperalgesic effect. Using computational functional magnetic resonance imaging, we found that this effect correlated with activity in the periaqueductal gray. Our results provide evidence for a novel form of cognitive hyperalgesia relating to perceptual uncertainty, induced here by vicarious observation, with control mediated by the brainstem pain modulatory system.

Fingerprinting quality control of Qianghuo by high-performance liquid chromatography-photodiode array detection

A novel, simple and accurate fingerprint method was developed using high-performance liquid chromatography-photodiode array detection (HPLC-DAD) for the quality control of Qianghuo, a Tibetan folk and Chinese herbal medicine used as a diaphoretic, an antifebrile and an anodyne. For the first time, the feasibility and advantages of employing chromatographic fingerprint were investigated and demonstrated for the evaluation of Qianghuo by systematically comparing chromatograms of aqueous extracts with the professional analytical software recommended by State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA). Our results revealed that the chromatographic fingerprint combing similarity evaluation could efficiently identify and distinguish raw herbs of Qianghno from different sources and different species. The effects on Notopterygium forbesii Boiss (Apiaceae) chromatographic fingerprints resulted from collecting locations, harvesting time were also examined. (c) 2006 Elsevier lrelanc Ltd. All rights reserved.

公共政策制定程序对政策可接受性的影响

This research addresses the problems of public policy-making procedures. In conducting our research, we considered public policy as the allocation or reallocation of interests or resources among different members of the public. Due to limited resources, administrations should trade off all interests among different segments of society when formulating a policy. Unfortunately, in recent years there have been several mass conflicts with administration of public policy. This infers that some people’s interests were ignored or harmed by certain policies. According to the theory of procedural justice, people may accept the unexpected result if they consider the procedure is just. This research hypothesizes that there are certain problems in current policy-making procedures and that improving these procedures may make policies more acceptable. A pilot study was conducted by interviewing ten scholars from a range of disciplines. The interview record transcripts were coded by three analysts. The results indicate that: 1) Most of the scholars criticized current public policies as lacking sensitivity to public issues; 2) Most of them considered that current public policies do not resolve problems effectively; and 3) They all considered that psychology research may enhance awareness of public issues and improve the effectiveness of policy. In study 2, the procedure of public policy was tracked and compared with a social survey. The Beijing government would like to increase the taxi fare rate to cope with the rising price of petroleum. Although the majority of delegates in a hearing of witnesses supported the policy consideration, the social survey of 186 residents and 63 taxi drivers indicated that both of them oppose the consideration. The findings indicate that the hearing of witnesses was not able to delegate the opinions of the public, resulting in the policy failing to resolve the problem. Study 3 was a nonequivalent control group quasi-experiment. Visitors of two Internet Website were chosen as subjects for original photo games. For the experiment group, visitors were invited to express their desires and suggestions on the game rules for one week, and then declare rules referencing the suggestions before starting the game. Meanwhile, the control group simply declared the rules at the beginning of the game. Compared with the two games during 23 days, the experiment group submitted more photos than the control group. The results of this research imply that, the good will of policy makers is not enough to make a policy effective. Surveys on public attitudes at the beginning of the policy-making process can allow policy makers to better determine public issues, assess the tradeoff of public interests, help ensure policies are more acceptable, and help foster a harmonious society. The authors of this research suggest that psychology research should take more social level problems into account in the policy-making process.

Measurement Issues in the Application of Screening Tools for PTSD.

Psychometrics is a term within the statistical literature that encompasses the development and evaluation of psychological tests and measures, an area of increasing importance within applied psychology specifically and behavioral sciences. Confusion continues to exist regarding the fundamental tenets of psychometric evaluation and application of the appropriate statistical tests and procedures. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the main psychometric elements which need to be considered in both the development and evaluation of an instrument or tool used within the context of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The psychometric profile of a tool should also be considered in established tools used in screening PTSD. A “standard” for the application and reporting of psychometric data and approaches is emphasized, the goal of which is to ensure that the key psychometric parameters are considered in relation to the selection and use of PTSD screening tools.

An impression of home: player nostalgia and the impulse to explore game worlds

This is the accepted version of the paper following peer review.

People who expect to enter psychotherapy are prone to believing that they have forgotten memories of childhood trauma and abuse.

We asked 1004 undergraduates to estimate both the probability that they would enter therapy and the probability that they experienced but could not remember incidents of potentially life-threatening childhood traumas or physical and sexual abuse. We found a linear relation between the expectation of entering therapy and the belief that one had, but cannot now remember, childhood trauma and abuse. Thus individuals who are prone to seek psychotherapy are also prone to accept a suggested memory of childhood trauma or abuse as fitting their expectations. In multiple regressions predicting the probability of forgotten memories of childhood traumas and abuse, the expectation of entering therapy remained as a substantial predictor when self-report measures of mood, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity, and trauma exposure were included.