New On-Line Excitation-System Ground Fault Location Method Tested in a 106 MVA Synchronous Generator

In this paper, a novel excitation-system ground-fault location method is described and tested in a 106 MVA synchronous machine. In this unit, numerous rotor ground-fault trips took place always about an hour after the synchronization to the network. However, when the field winding insulation was checked after the trips, there was no failure. The data indicated that the faults in the rotor were caused by centrifugal forces and temperature. Unexpectedly, by applying this new method, the failure was located in a cable between the excitation transformer and the automatic voltage regulator. In addition, several intentional ground faults were performed along the field winding with different fault resistance values, in order to test the accuracy of this method to locate defects in rotor windings of large generators. Therefore, this new on-line rotor ground-fault detection algorithm is tested in high-power synchronous generators with satisfactory results.

Autonomous classification models in ubiquitous environments

Stream-mining approach is defined as a set of cutting-edge techniques designed to process streams of data in real time, in order to extract knowledge. In the particular case of classification, stream-mining has to adapt its behaviour to the volatile underlying data distributions, what has been called concept drift. Moreover, it is important to note that concept drift may lead to situations where predictive models become invalid and have therefore to be updated to represent the actual concepts that data poses. In this context, there is a specific type of concept drift, known as recurrent concept drift, where the concepts represented by data have already appeared in the past. In those cases the learning process could be saved or at least minimized by applying a previously trained model. This could be extremely useful in ubiquitous environments that are characterized by the existence of resource constrained devices. To deal with the aforementioned scenario, meta-models can be used in the process of enhancing the drift detection mechanisms used by data stream algorithms, by representing and predicting when the change will occur. There are some real-world situations where a concept reappears, as in the case of intrusion detection systems (IDS), where the same incidents or an adaptation of them usually reappear over time. In these environments the early prediction of drift by means of a better knowledge of past models can help to anticipate to the change, thus improving efficiency of the model regarding the training instances needed. By means of using meta-models as a recurrent drift detection mechanism, the ability to share concepts representations among different data mining processes is open. That kind of exchanges could improve the accuracy of the resultant local model as such model may benefit from patterns similar to the local concept that were observed in other scenarios, but not yet locally. This would also improve the efficiency of training instances used during the classification process, as long as the exchange of models would aid in the application of already trained recurrent models, that have been previously seen by any of the collaborative devices. Which it is to say that the scope of recurrence detection and representation is broaden. In fact the detection, representation and exchange of concept drift patterns would be extremely useful for the law enforcement activities fighting against cyber crime. Being the information exchange one of the main pillars of cooperation, national units would benefit from the experience and knowledge gained by third parties. Moreover, in the specific scope of critical infrastructures protection it is crucial to count with information exchange mechanisms, both from a strategical and technical scope. The exchange of concept drift detection schemes in cyber security environments would aid in the process of preventing, detecting and effectively responding to threads in cyber space. Furthermore, as a complement of meta-models, a mechanism to assess the similarity between classification models is also needed when dealing with recurrent concepts. In this context, when reusing a previously trained model a rough comparison between concepts is usually made, applying boolean logic. The introduction of fuzzy logic comparisons between models could lead to a better efficient reuse of previously seen concepts, by applying not just equal models, but also similar ones. This work faces the aforementioned open issues by means of: the MMPRec system, that integrates a meta-model mechanism and a fuzzy similarity function; a collaborative environment to share meta-models between different devices; a recurrent drift generator that allows to test the usefulness of recurrent drift systems, as it is the case of MMPRec. Moreover, this thesis presents an experimental validation of the proposed contributions using synthetic and real datasets.

Estrogen alters behavior and forebrain c-fos expression in ovariectomized rats subjected to the forced swim test

Estrogen has been implicated in brain functions related to affective state, including hormone-related affective disorders in women. Although some reports suggest that estrogen appears to decrease vulnerability to affective disorders in certain cases, the mechanisms involved are unknown. We used the forced swim test (FST), a paradigm used to test the efficacy of antidepressants, and addressed the hypotheses that estrogen alters behavior of ovariectomized rats in the FST and the FST-induced expression of c-fos, a marker for neuronal activity, in the rat forebrain. The behaviors displayed included struggling, swimming, and immobility. One hour after the beginning of the test on day 2, the animals were perfused, and the brains were processed for c-fos immunocytochemistry. On day 1, the estradiol benzoate-treated animals spent significantly less time struggling and virtually no time in immobility and spent most of the time swimming. Control rats spent significantly more time struggling or being immobile during a comparable period. On day 2, similar behavioral patterns with still more pronounced differences were observed between estradiol benzoate and ovariectomized control groups in struggling, immobility, and swimming. Analysis of the mean number of c-fos immunoreactive cell nuclei showed a significant reduction in the estradiol benzoate versus control groups in areas of the forebrain relating to sensory, contextual, and integrative processing. Our results suggest that estrogen-induced neurochemical changes in forebrain neurons may translate into an altered behavioral output in the affective domain.

Germany’s ‘refugee’ problem. The most important test for Chancellor Merkel and the grand coalition. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 182/11.09.2015 2015-09-11

The rapid increase in the number of immigrants from outside of the EU coming to Germany has become the paramount political issue. According to new estimates, the number of individuals expected arrive in Germany in 2015 and apply for asylum there is 800,000, which is nearly twice as many as estimated in earlier forecasts. Various administrative, financial and social problems related to the influx of migrants are becoming increasingly apparent. The problem of ‘refugees’ (in public debate, the terms ‘immigrants’, ‘refugees’, ‘illegal immigrants’, ‘economic immigrants’ have not been clearly defined and have often been used interchangeably) has been culminating for over a year. Despite this, it was being disregarded by Angela Merkel’s government which was preoccupied with debates on how to rescue Greece. It was only daily reports of cases of refugee centres being set on fire that convinced Chancellor Merkel to speak and to make immigration problem a priority issue (Chefsache). Neither the ruling coalition nor the opposition parties have a consistent idea of how Germany should react to the growing number of refugees. In this matter, divisions run across parties. Various solutions have been proposed, from liberalisation of laws on the right to stay in Germany to combating illegal immigration more effectively, which would be possible if asylum granting procedures were accelerated. The proposed solutions have not been properly thought through, instead they are reactive measures inspired by the results of opinion polls. This is why their assumptions are often contradictory. The situation is similar regarding the actions proposed by Chancellor Merkel which involve faster procedures to expel individuals with no right to stay in Germany and a plan to convince other EU states to accept ‘refugees’. None of these ideas is new – they were already present in the German internal debate.

The outcome in Australian children with hyperinsulinism of infancy: early extensive surgery in severe cases lowers risk of diabetes

AIMS Hyperinsulinism of infancy (HI) is characterized by unregulated insulin secretion in the presence of hypoglycaemia, often resulting in brain damage. Pancreatic resection for control of hypoglycaemia is frequently resisted because of the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). We investigated retrospectively 62 children with HI from nine Australian treatment centres born between 1972 and 1998, comparing endocrine and neurological outcome in 28 patients receiving medical therapy alone with 34 who required pancreatic resection to control their hypoglycaemia. METHODS History, treatment and clinical course were ascertained from file audit and interview. Risk of DM (hazard ratio) attributable to age at surgery (< vs. greater than or equal to 100 days at last pancreatectomy) and extent of resection (< vs. greater than or equal to 95%) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and categorical variables compared by the chi(2) -test. Neurological outcome (normal, mild deficit or severe deficit) was derived from the most authoritative source. RESULTS Surgically treated patients had a greater birthweight, earlier presentation and higher plasma insulin levels. Of 18 infants < 100 days and 16 greater than or equal to 100 days of age at surgery, four (all greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic as an immediate consequence of surgery and five (two < 100 days and three greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic 7-18 years later. Surgery greater than or equal to 100 days and pancreatectomy greater than or equal to 95% were associated with development of diabetes (HR = 12.61, CI 1.53-104.07 and HR = 7.03, CI 1.43-34.58, respectively). Neurodevelopmental outcome was no different between the surgical and medical groups with 44% overall with neurological deficits. Patients euglycaemic within 35 days of the first symptom of hypoglycaemia (Group A) had a better neurodevelopmental outcome than those still hypoglycaemic > 35 days from first presentation (Group B) (P = 0.007). Prolonged hypoglycaemia in Group B was due either to delayed diagnosis or to need for repeat surgery because of continued hypoglycaemia. Within Group A, medically treated patients (who presented later with apparently milder disease) had a higher incidence of neurodevelopmental deficit (n = 15, four mild, three severe deficit) compared with surgically treated patients (n = 18, two mild, none severe deficit) (P < 0.025). CONCLUSIONS Poor neurodevelopmental outcome remains a major problem in hyperinsulinism of infancy. Risk of diabetes mellitus with pancreatectomy varies according to age at surgery and extent of resection. Patients presenting early with severe disease have a better neurodevelopmental outcome and lower risk of diabetes if they are treated with early extensive surgery.

Oral glucose tolerance test in children and adolescents: Positives and pitfalls

Objectives: To describe the glycaemic status (assessed by an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)) and associated comorbidities in a cohort of Australian children and adolescents at risk of insulin resistance and impaired glucose homeostasis (IGH). Methods: Twenty-one children and adolescents (three male, 18 female) (18 Caucasian, one Indigenous, two Asian) (20 obese, one lipodystrophy) referred to the Paediatric Endocrinology and Diabetes Clinic underwent a 2-h OGTT with plasma glucose and insulin measured at baseline, + 60 and + 120 min. If abnormal, the OGTT was repeated. Results: The mean (SD) age was 14.2 (1.6) years, BMI 38.8 (7.0) kg/m(2) and BMI-SDS 3.6 (0.6). Fourteen patients had fasting insulin levels >21 mU/L. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was diagnosed in one patient, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in four patients and impaired fasting glycaemia (IFG) in one patient. Despite no weight loss, only one patient had a persistently abnormal OGTT on repeat testing. Three patients with IGH were medicated with risperidone at the time of the initial OGTT. One patient who had persistent IGT had continued risperidone. The other two patients had initial OGTT results of IGT and diabetes mellitus type 2. They both ceased risperidone between tests and repeat OGTT showed normal glycaemic status. Conclusions: Use of fasting glucose alone may miss cases of IGH. Diagnosis of IGT should not be made on one test alone. Interpretation of glucose and insulin responses in young people is limited by lack of normative data. Larger studies are needed to generate Australian screening recommendations. Further assessment of the potential adverse effects of atypical antipsychotic medication on glucose homeostasis in this at-risk group is important.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

A Test of Performance of Breast MRI Interpretation in a Multicentre Screening Study

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the consistency and performance of radiologists interpreting breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations. Materials and Methods: Two test sets of eight cases comprising cancers, benign disease, technical problems and parenchymal enhancement were prepared from two manufacturers' equipment (X and Y) and reported by 15 radiologists using the recording form and scoring system of the UK MRI breast screening study [(MAgnetic Resonance Imaging in Breast Screening (MARIBS)]. Variations in assessments of morphology, kinetic scores and diagnosis were measured by assessing intraobserver and interobserver variability and agreement. The sensitivity and specificity of reporting performances was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: Intraobserver variation was seen in 13 (27.7%) of 47 of the radiologists' conclusions (four technical and seven pathological differences). Substantial interobserver variation was observed in the scores recorded for morphology, pattern of enhancement, quantification of enhancement and washout pattern. The overall sensitivity of breast MRI was high [88.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 77.4-94.7%], combined with a specificity of 69.2% (95% CI 60.5-76.7%). The sensitivities were similar for the two test sets (P=.3), but the specificity was significantly higher for the Manufacturer X dataset (P

Neuropathological heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease:A study of 80 cases using principal components analysis

Three hypotheses have been proposed to explain neuropathological heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease (AD): the presence of distinct subtypes ('subtype hypothesis'), variation in the stage of the disease ('phase hypothesis') and variation in the origin and progression of the disease ('compensation hypothesis'). To test these hypotheses, variation in the distribution and severity of senile plaques (SP) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) was studied in 80 cases of AD using principal components analysis (PCA). Principal components analysis using the cases as variables (Q-type analysis) suggested that individual differences between patients were continuously distributed rather than the cases being clustered into distinct subtypes. In addition, PCA using the abundances of SP and NFT as variables (R-type analysis) suggested that variations in the presence and abundance of lesions in the frontal and occipital lobes, the cingulate gyrus and the posterior parahippocampal gyrus were the most important sources of heterogeneity consistent with the presence of different stages of the disease. In addition, in a subgroup of patients, individual differences were related to apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotype, the presence and severity of SP in the frontal and occipital cortex being significantly increased in patients expressing apolipoprotein (Apo)E allele ε4. It was concluded that some of the neuropathological heterogeneity in our AD cases may be consistent with the 'phase hypothesis'. A major factor determining this variation in late-onset cases was ApoE genotype with accelerated rates of spread of the pathology in patients expressing allele ε4.

Pulse oximetry as a screening test for congenital heart defects in newborn infants: a test accuracy study with evaluation of acceptability and cost-effectiveness

Background: Screening for congenital heart defects (CHDs) relies on antenatal ultrasound and postnatal clinical examination; however, life-threatening defects often go undetected. Objective: To determine the accuracy, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of pulse oximetry as a screening test for CHDs in newborn infants. Design: A test accuracy study determined the accuracy of pulse oximetry. Acceptability of testing to parents was evaluated through a questionnaire, and to staff through focus groups. A decision-analytic model was constructed to assess cost-effectiveness. Setting: Six UK maternity units. Participants: These were 20,055 asymptomatic newborns at = 35 weeks’ gestation, their mothers and health-care staff. Interventions: Pulse oximetry was performed prior to discharge from hospital and the results of this index test were compared with a composite reference standard (echocardiography, clinical follow-up and follow-up through interrogation of clinical databases). Main outcome measures: Detection of major CHDs – defined as causing death or requiring invasive intervention up to 12 months of age (subdivided into critical CHDs causing death or intervention before 28 days, and serious CHDs causing death or intervention between 1 and 12 months of age); acceptability of testing to parents and staff; and the cost-effectiveness in terms of cost per timely diagnosis. Results: Fifty-three of the 20,055 babies screened had a major CHD (24 critical and 29 serious), a prevalence of 2.6 per 1000 live births. Pulse oximetry had a sensitivity of 75.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 53.3% to 90.2%] for critical cases and 49.1% (95% CI 35.1% to 63.2%) for all major CHDs. When 23 cases were excluded, in which a CHD was already suspected following antenatal ultrasound, pulse oximetry had a sensitivity of 58.3% (95% CI 27.7% to 84.8%) for critical cases (12 babies) and 28.6% (95% CI 14.6% to 46.3%) for all major CHDs (35 babies). False-positive (FP) results occurred in 1 in 119 babies (0.84%) without major CHDs (specificity 99.2%, 95% CI 99.0% to 99.3%). However, of the 169 FPs, there were six cases of significant but not major CHDs and 40 cases of respiratory or infective illness requiring medical intervention. The prevalence of major CHDs in babies with normal pulse oximetry was 1.4 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.0) per 1000 live births, as 27 babies with major CHDs (6 critical and 21 serious) were missed. Parent and staff participants were predominantly satisfied with screening, perceiving it as an important test to detect ill babies. There was no evidence that mothers given FP results were more anxious after participating than those given true-negative results, although they were less satisfied with the test. White British/Irish mothers were more likely to participate in the study, and were less anxious and more satisfied than those of other ethnicities. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of pulse oximetry plus clinical examination compared with examination alone is approximately £24,900 per timely diagnosis in a population in which antenatal screening for CHDs already exists. Conclusions: Pulse oximetry is a simple, safe, feasible test that is acceptable to parents and staff and adds value to existing screening. It is likely to identify cases of critical CHDs that would otherwise go undetected. It is also likely to be cost-effective given current acceptable thresholds. The detection of other pathologies, such as significant CHDs and respiratory and infective illnesses, is an additional advantage. Other pulse oximetry techniques, such as perfusion index, may enhance detection of aortic obstructive lesions.

Long memory and multifractality:a joint test

The properties of statistical tests for hypotheses concerning the parameters of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) are investigated, using Monte Carlo techniques. We show that, in the presence of multifractality, conventional tests of long memory tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of no long memory. Our test addresses this issue by jointly estimating long memory and multifractality. The estimation and test procedures are applied to exchange rate data for 12 currencies. Among the nested model specifications that are investigated, in 11 out of 12 cases, daily returns are most appropriately characterized by a variant of the MMAR that applies a multifractal time-deformation process to NIID returns. There is no evidence of long memory.

Cluster Analysis of Some Clases of Objects by Application of the Test Recognition Algorithms

The paper treats the task for cluster analysis of a given assembly of objects on the basis of the information contained in the description table of these objects. Various methods of cluster analysis are briefly considered. Heuristic method and rules for classification of the given assembly of objects are presented for the cases when their division into classes and the number of classes is not known. The algorithm is checked by a test example and two program products (PP) – learning systems and software for company management. Analysis of the results is presented.

A Test of Association between Qualitative Trait and a Set of SNPs

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P10, 92D10, 92D30, 62F03

Long memory and multifractality:a joint test

The properties of statistical tests for hypotheses concerning the parameters of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) are investigated, using Monte Carlo techniques. We show that, in the presence of multifractality, conventional tests of long memory tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of no long memory. Our test addresses this issue by jointly estimating long memory and multifractality. The estimation and test procedures are applied to exchange rate data for 12 currencies. In 11 cases, the exchange rate returns are accurately described by compounding a NIID series with a multifractal time-deformation process. There is no evidence of long memory.

Impact of severity and type of depression on quality of life in cases identified in the community

BACKGROUND: The impact of different levels of depression severity on quality of life (QoL) is not well studied, particularly regarding ICD-10 criteria. The ICD classification of depressive episodes in three levels of severity is also controversial and the less severe category, mild, has been considered as unnecessary and not clearly distinguishable from non-clinical states. The present work aimed to test the relationship between depression severity according to ICD-10 criteria and several dimensions of functioning as assessed by Medical Outcome Study (MOS) 36-item Short Form general health survey (SF-36) at the population level. METHOD: A sample of 551 participants from the second phase of the Outcome of Depression International Network (ODIN) study (228 controls without depression and 313 persons fulfilling ICD criteria for depressive episode) was selected for a further assessment of several variables, including QoL related to physical and mental health as measured with the SF-36. RESULTS: Statistically significant differences between controls and the depression group were found in both physical and mental markers of health, regardless of the level of depression severity; however, there were very few differences in QoL between levels of depression as defined by ICD-10. Regardless of the presence of depression, disability, widowed status, being a woman and older age were associated with worse QoL in a structural equation analysis with covariates. Likewise, there were no differences according to the type of depression (single-episode versus recurrent). CONCLUSIONS: These results cast doubt on the adequacy of the current ICD classification of depression in three levels of severity.