Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual) using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB) or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1) in the wrong direction, or (2) with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

Spatio-temporal Variability of Atmospheric Ozone over Indian Subcontinent and its Relation to Meteorological Parameters

Ozone present in the atmosphere not only absorbs the biologically harmful ultraviolet radiation but also is an important ingredient of the climate system. The radiative absorption properties of ozone make it a determining factor in the structure of the atmosphere. Ozone in the troposphere has many negative impacts on humans and other living beings. Another significant aspect is the absorption of outgoing infrared radiation by ozone thus acting as a greenhouse gas. The variability of ozone in the atmosphere involves many interconnections with the incoming and outgoing radiation, temperature circulation etc. Hence ozone forms an important part of chemistry-climate as well as radiative transfer models. This aspect also makes the quantification of ozone more important. The discovery of Antarctic ozone hole and the role of anthropogenic activities in causing it made it possible to plan and implement necessary preventive measures. Continuous monitoring of ozone is also necessary to identify the effect of these preventive steps. The reactions involving the formation and destruction of ozone are influenced significantly by the temperature fluctuations of the atmosphere. On the other hand the variations in ozone can change the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Indian subcontinent is a region having large weather and climate variability which is evident from the large interannual variability of monsoon system over the region. Nearly half of Indian region comprises the tropical region. Most of ozone is formed in the tropical region and transported to higher latitudes. The formation and transport of ozone can be influenced by changes in solar radiation and various atmospheric circulation features. Besides industrial activities and vehicular traffic is more due to its large population. This may give rise to an increase in the production of tropospheric ozone which is greenhouse gas. Hence it becomes necessary to monitor the atmospheric ozone over this region. This study probes into the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of ozone over Indian subcontinent and discusses the contributing atmospheric parameters.

Modelling the niche for a marine vertebrate: A case study incorporating behavioural plasticity, proximate threats and climate change

[EN] The integration of satellite telemetry, remotely sensed environmental data, and habitat/environmental modelling has provided for a growing understanding of spatial and temporal ecology of species of conservation concern. The Republic of Cape Verde comprises the only substantial rookery for the loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta in the eastern Atlantic. A size related dichotomy in adult foraging patterns has previously been revealed for adult sea turtles from this population with a proportion of adults foraging neritically, whilst the majority forage oceanically. Here we describe observed habitat use and employ ecological niche modelling to identify suitable foraging habitats for animals utilising these two distinct behavioural strategies. We also investigate how these predicted habitat niches may alter under the influence of climate change induced oceanic temperature rises.

Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER) to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS)

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders’ preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

A discrete formalism for reasoning about action and change

This paper presents a discrete formalism for temporal reasoning about actions and change, which enjoys an explicit representation of time and action/event occurrences. The formalism allows the expression of truth values for given fluents over various times including nondecomposable points/moments and decomposable intervals. Two major problems which beset most existing interval-based theories of action and change, i.e., the so-called dividing instant problem and the intermingling problem, are absent from this new formalism. The dividing instant problem is overcome by excluding the concepts of ending points of intervals, and the intermingling problem is bypassed by means of characterising the fundamental time structure as a well-ordered discrete set of non-decomposable times (points and moments), from which decomposable intervals are constructed. A comprehensive characterisation about the relationship between the negation of fluents and the negation of involved sentences is formally provided. The formalism provides a flexible expression of temporal relationships between effects and their causal events, including delayed effects of events which remains a problematic question in most existing theories about action and change.

Reasoning about change over time: Actions, events and their effects

This paper presents a new formalism for reasoning about change over time. The formalism derives a clean separation between the notion of states and situations. It allows more flexible temporal causal relationships than do other formalisms for reasoning about causal change, such as the situation calculus and the event calculus. It includes effects that start during, immediately after, or some time after their causes, and which end before, simultaneously with, or after their causes. A formal distinction between actions, action-types and events is proposed, which allows the expression of common-sense causal laws at high level. It is shown how these laws can be used to deduce state change over time at low level, when events occur under certain preconditions hold. Two problems that beset most interval-based temporal systems, i.e., the so-called dividing instant problem and intermingling problem, are absent from the formalism.

DIRECT NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INCOMPRESSIBLE MULTIPHASE FLOW WITH PHASE CHANGE

Phase change problems arise in many practical applications such as air-conditioning and refrigeration, thermal energy storage systems and thermal management of electronic devices. The physical phenomenon in such applications are complex and are often difficult to be studied in detail with the help of only experimental techniques. The efforts to improve computational techniques for analyzing two-phase flow problems with phase change are therefore gaining momentum. The development of numerical methods for multiphase flow has been motivated generally by the need to account more accurately for (a) large topological changes such as phase breakup and merging, (b) sharp representation of the interface and its discontinuous properties and (c) accurate and mass conserving motion of the interface. In addition to these considerations, numerical simulation of multiphase flow with phase change introduces additional challenges related to discontinuities in the velocity and the temperature fields. Moreover, the velocity field is no longer divergence free. For phase change problems, the focus of developmental efforts has thus been on numerically attaining a proper conservation of energy across the interface in addition to the accurate treatment of fluxes of mass and momentum conservation as well as the associated interface advection. Among the initial efforts related to the simulation of bubble growth in film boiling applications the work in \cite{Welch1995} was based on the interface tracking method using a moving unstructured mesh. That study considered moderate interfacial deformations. A similar problem was subsequently studied using moving, boundary fitted grids \cite{Son1997}, again for regimes of relatively small topological changes. A hybrid interface tracking method with a moving interface grid overlapping a static Eulerian grid was developed \cite{Juric1998} for the computation of a range of phase change problems including, three-dimensional film boiling \cite{esmaeeli2004computations}, multimode two-dimensional pool boiling \cite{Esmaeeli2004} and film boiling on horizontal cylinders \cite{Esmaeeli2004a}. The handling of interface merging and pinch off however remains a challenge with methods that explicitly track the interface. As large topological changes are crucial for phase change problems, attention has turned in recent years to front capturing methods utilizing implicit interfaces that are more effective in treating complex interface deformations. The VOF (Volume of Fluid) method was adopted in \cite{Welch2000} to simulate the one-dimensional Stefan problem and the two-dimensional film boiling problem. The approach employed a specific model for mass transfer across the interface involving a mass source term within cells containing the interface. This VOF based approach was further coupled with the level set method in \cite{Son1998}, employing a smeared-out Heaviside function to avoid the numerical instability related to the source term. The coupled level set, volume of fluid method and the diffused interface approach was used for film boiling with water and R134a at the near critical pressure condition \cite{Tomar2005}. The effect of superheat and saturation pressure on the frequency of bubble formation were analyzed with this approach. The work in \cite{Gibou2007} used the ghost fluid and the level set methods for phase change simulations. A similar approach was adopted in \cite{Son2008} to study various boiling problems including three-dimensional film boiling on a horizontal cylinder, nucleate boiling in microcavity \cite{lee2010numerical} and flow boiling in a finned microchannel \cite{lee2012direct}. The work in \cite{tanguy2007level} also used the ghost fluid method and proposed an improved algorithm based on enforcing continuity and divergence-free condition for the extended velocity field. The work in \cite{sato2013sharp} employed a multiphase model based on volume fraction with interface sharpening scheme and derived a phase change model based on local interface area and mass flux. Among the front capturing methods, sharp interface methods have been found to be particularly effective both for implementing sharp jumps and for resolving the interfacial velocity field. However, sharp velocity jumps render the solution susceptible to erroneous oscillations in pressure and also lead to spurious interface velocities. To implement phase change, the work in \cite{Hardt2008} employed point mass source terms derived from a physical basis for the evaporating mass flux. To avoid numerical instability, the authors smeared the mass source by solving a pseudo time-step diffusion equation. This measure however led to mass conservation issues due to non-symmetric integration over the distributed mass source region. The problem of spurious pressure oscillations related to point mass sources was also investigated by \cite{Schlottke2008}. Although their method is based on the VOF, the large pressure peaks associated with sharp mass source was observed to be similar to that for the interface tracking method. Such spurious fluctuation in pressure are essentially undesirable because the effect is globally transmitted in incompressible flow. Hence, the pressure field formation due to phase change need to be implemented with greater accuracy than is reported in current literature. The accuracy of interface advection in the presence of interfacial mass flux (mass flux conservation) has been discussed in \cite{tanguy2007level,tanguy2014benchmarks}. The authors found that the method of extending one phase velocity to entire domain suggested by Nguyen et al. in \cite{nguyen2001boundary} suffers from a lack of mass flux conservation when the density difference is high. To improve the solution, the authors impose a divergence-free condition for the extended velocity field by solving a constant coefficient Poisson equation. The approach has shown good results with enclosed bubble or droplet but is not general for more complex flow and requires additional solution of the linear system of equations. In current thesis, an improved approach that addresses both the numerical oscillation of pressure and the spurious interface velocity field is presented by featuring (i) continuous velocity and density fields within a thin interfacial region and (ii) temporal velocity correction steps to avoid unphysical pressure source term. Also I propose a general (iii) mass flux projection correction for improved mass flux conservation. The pressure and the temperature gradient jump condition are treated sharply. A series of one-dimensional and two-dimensional problems are solved to verify the performance of the new algorithm. Two-dimensional and cylindrical film boiling problems are also demonstrated and show good qualitative agreement with the experimental observations and heat transfer correlations. Finally, a study on Taylor bubble flow with heat transfer and phase change in a small vertical tube in axisymmetric coordinates is carried out using the new multiphase, phase change method.

Role of climate on barn owls road-kill likelihood and the effect on population viability in future climate change

Roads represent a new source of mortality due to animal-vehicle risk of collision threatening log-term populations’ viability. Risk of road-kill depends on species sensitivity to roads and their specific life-history traits. The risk of road mortality for each species depends on the characteristics of roads and bioecological characteristics of the species. In this study we intend to know the importance of climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) together with traffic and life history traits and understand the role of drought in barn owl population viability, also affected by road mortality in three scenarios: high mobility, high population density and the combination of previous scenarios (mixed) (Manuscript). For the first objective we correlated the several parameters (climate, traffic and life history traits). We used the most correlated variables to build a predictive mixed model (GLMM) the influence of the same. Using a population model we evaluated barn owl population viability in all three scenarios. Model revealed precipitation, traffic and dispersal have negative relationship with road-kills, although the relationship was not significant. Scenarios showed different results, high mobility scenario showed greater population depletion, more fluctuations over time and greater risk of extinction. High population density scenario showed a more stable population with lower risk of extinction and mixed scenario showed similar results as first scenario. Climate seems to play an indirect role on barn owl road-kills, it may influence prey availability which influences barn owl reproductive success and activity. Also, high mobility scenario showed a greater negative impact on viability of populations which may affect their ability and resilience to other stochastic events. Future research should take in account climate and how it may influence species life cycles and activity periods for a more complete approach of road-kills. Also it is important to make the best mitigation decisions which might include improving prey quality habitat.

Development of an historical landscape photography database to support landscape change analysis in the Northeast of Portugal

Repeat photography is an efficient, effective and useful method to identify trends of changes in the landscapes. It was used to illustrate long-term changes occurring in the landscapes. In the Northeast of Portugal, landscapes changes is currently driven mostly by agriculture abandonment and agriculture and energy policy. However, there is a need to monitoring changes in the region using a multitemporal and multiscale approach. This project aimed to establish an online repository of oblique digital photography from the region to be used to register the condition of the landscape as recorded in historical and contemporary photography over time as well as to support qualitative and quantitative assessment of change in the landscape using repeat photography techniques and methods. It involved the development of a relational database and a series of web-based services using PHP: Hypertext Preprocessor language, and the development of an interface, with Joomla, of pictures uploading and downloading by users. The repository will make possible to upload, store, search by location, theme, or date, display, and download pictures for Northeastern Portugal. The website service is devoted to help researchers to obtain quickly the photographs needed to apply RP through a developed search engine. It can be accessed at: http://esa.ipb.pt/digitalandscape/.

Factors influencing temporal changes in chemical composition of biogenic deposits in the middle Tążyna River Valley (Kuyavian Lakeland, central Poland)

The present paper discusses the influence of geochemical properties on biogenic deposits in the Wilkostowo mire near Toruń, central Poland. The analysed core has allowed the documentation of environmental changes between the older part of the Atlantic Period and the present day (probably interrupted at the turn of the Meso- and Neoholocene). In order to reconstruct the main stages in the sedimentation of biogenic deposits, we have used stratigraphic variability of selected litho-geochemical elements (organic matter, calcium carbonate, biogenic and terrigenous silica, macro- and micro-elements: Na, K, Mg, Ca, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Ni). The main litho-geochemical component is CaCO 3 ; its content ranges from 4.1 per cent to 92 per cent. The variability of CaCO 3 content reflects mainly changes in hydrolog- ical and geomorphological conditions within the catchment area. The effects of prehistoric anthropogenic activities in the catchment of the River Tążyna, e.g., the use of saline water for economic purposes, are recorded in a change from calcareous gyttja into detritus-calcareous gyttja sedimentation and an increased content of lithophilous elements (Na, K, Mg and Ni) in the sediments. Principal component analysis (PCA) has enabled the distinction the most important factors that affected the chemical composition of sediments at the Wilkostowo site, i.e., mechanical and chemical den- udation processes in the catchment, changes in redox conditions, bioaccumulation of selected elements and human activity. Sediments of the Wilkostowo mire are located in the direct vicinity of an archaeological site, where traces of intensive settlement dating back to the Neolithic have been documented. The settlement phase is recorded both in li- thology and geochemical properties of biogenic deposits which fill the reservoir formed at the bottom of the Parchania Canal Valley.

Temporal dynamics of the circadian heart rate following low and high volume exercise training in sedentary male subjects

Purpose: Increased risk of arrhythmic events occurs at certain times during the circadian cycle with the highest risk being in the second and fourth quarter of the day. Exercise improves treatment outcome in individuals with cardiovascular disease. How different exercise protocols affect the circadian rhythm and the associated decrease in adverse cardiovascular risk over the circadian cycle has not been shown. Methods: Fifty sedentary male participants were randomized into an 8-week high volume and moderate volume training and a control group. Heart rate was recorded using Polar Electronics and investigated with Cosinor analysis and by Poincaré plot derived features of SD1, SD2 and the complex correlation measure (CCM) at 1-h intervals over the 24-h period. Results: Moderate exercise significantly increased vagal modulation and the temporal dynamics of the heart rate in the second quarter of the circadian cycle (p = 0.004 and p = 0.007 respectively). High volume exercise had a similar effect on vagal output (p = 0.003) and temporal dynamics (p = 0.003). Cosinor analysis confirms that the circadian heart rate displays a shift in the acrophage following moderate and high volume exercise from before waking (1st quarter) to after waking (2nd quarter of day). Conclusions: Our results suggest that exercise shifts vagal influence and increases temporal dynamics of the heart rate to the 2nd quarter of the day and suggest that this may be the underlying physiological change leading to a decrease in adverse arrhythmic events during this otherwise high-risk period.

Hilbert Space Valued Signal Plus Noise Models: Analysis of Structural Breaks under High Dimensionality and Temporal Dependence

This thesis is concerned with change point analysis for time series, i.e. with detection of structural breaks in time-ordered, random data. This long-standing research field regained popularity over the last few years and is still undergoing, as statistical analysis in general, a transformation to high-dimensional problems. We focus on the fundamental »change in the mean« problem and provide extensions of the classical non-parametric Darling-Erdős-type cumulative sum (CUSUM) testing and estimation theory within highdimensional Hilbert space settings. In the first part we contribute to (long run) principal component based testing methods for Hilbert space valued time series under a rather broad (abrupt, epidemic, gradual, multiple) change setting and under dependence. For the dependence structure we consider either traditional m-dependence assumptions or more recently developed m-approximability conditions which cover, e.g., MA, AR and ARCH models. We derive Gumbel and Brownian bridge type approximations of the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis of no change and consistency conditions under the alternative. A new formulation of the test statistic using projections on subspaces allows us to simplify the standard proof techniques and to weaken common assumptions on the covariance structure. Furthermore, we propose to adjust the principal components by an implicit estimation of a (possible) change direction. This approach adds flexibility to projection based methods, weakens typical technical conditions and provides better consistency properties under the alternative. In the second part we contribute to estimation methods for common changes in the means of panels of Hilbert space valued time series. We analyze weighted CUSUM estimates within a recently proposed »high-dimensional low sample size (HDLSS)« framework, where the sample size is fixed but the number of panels increases. We derive sharp conditions on »pointwise asymptotic accuracy« or »uniform asymptotic accuracy« of those estimates in terms of the weighting function. Particularly, we prove that a covariance-based correction of Darling-Erdős-type CUSUM estimates is required to guarantee uniform asymptotic accuracy under moderate dependence conditions within panels and that these conditions are fulfilled, e.g., by any MA(1) time series. As a counterexample we show that for AR(1) time series, close to the non-stationary case, the dependence is too strong and uniform asymptotic accuracy cannot be ensured. Finally, we conduct simulations to demonstrate that our results are practically applicable and that our methodological suggestions are advantageous.